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Leo Ahrens

Biographic Data

ID1002108
NAMELeo Ahrens
GIVEN NAMESLeo
FAMILY NAMEAhrens
SIGNATUREAHRENS L
AFFILIATIONSUniversity of Bamberg
ORCID0000-0003-2029-9145
VERIFIEDYes
TOTAL WORKS14
TOTAL CITATIONS80
AUTHOR COUNT14
EDITOR COUNT0
FIRST PUBLICATION YEAR2019
LATEST PUBLICATION YEAR2026
H-INDEX5
  • The Equality Positions and Policies of Governments, 1970–2020: How Egalitarian Parties Evoke Equality While Evading Real Redistribution

    Open Access•Alexander Horn, Leo Ahrens•ARTICLE•British Journal of Political…•2026

    Despite egalitarian rhetoric, governments often fail to implement redistributive policies. We argue that selective egalitarianism helps to understand this puzzle. Analysing a new dataset of 850,000 manifesto statements and equality policies in 12 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries (1970–2020), we show that even parties committed to equality avoid taxing the rich. Instead of engaging in complex top-end taxation…

  • The great Caribbean divergence: Colonial economic structure and the emergence of tax havens in the ‘British West Indies’

    Open Access•Lukas Hakelberg, Leo Ahrens et al.•ARTICLE•Review of International Political…•2026

    Most jurisdictions formerly ruled from London as the British West Indies (BWI) are unimportant for offshore tax planning and offshore money creation, despite sharing traits conventionally associated with tax havens. Why have only some former BWI colonies become attractive locations for the main offshore activities while most others have not? We argue that soil fertility ultimately explains this variance. Settlers created plantation economies on i…

  • The electoral consequences of taxation in OECD countries

    Open Access•Leo Ahrens, Frank Bandau•ARTICLE•Electoral Studies•2024•Cited by: 1•References: 51

    Researchers, politicians, and pundits commonly expect that voters retrospectively punish and reward government parties for tax policies, but there is surprisingly little cross-country evidence that backs this claim. This study provides comprehensive evidence from 30 OECD countries, 1970–2020. It analyzes the electoral fates of government parties that increased or cut taxes on personal incomes and consumption. Our findings confirm the prevalence o…

  • The impact of public opinion on voting and policymaking: Is public opinion exogenous or endogenous

    Open Access•Leo Ahrens•ARTICLE•Zeitschrift für Politikwissenschaft•2024•Cited by: 5•References: 118

    This literature review investigates the effects of public opinion on political outcomes in democracies, focusing on Comparative Political Economy (CPE) research. Many CPE researchers expect that parties and governments respond to public policy preferences that are exogenous to the political process. This review first formalizes the common CPE argument and then derives an alternative theoretical perspective from political psychology and political …

  • Labor market risks and welfare preferences: A Bounded Rationality Approach

    Open Access•Leo Ahrens•ARTICLE•Socio-Economic Review•2024•Cited by: 4•References: 47

    This study introduces a bounded rationality approach to welfare preference formation under exposure to labor market risks. It argues that risk exposure only increases welfare demand when it is reasonable to assume that workers are aware of their risk exposure and when future-related concerns are currently salient. Empirical analyses of longitudinal data from Switzerland and 28 European countries support the theory. Swiss workers only optimize the…

  • The electoral consequences of welfare state changes: A Sober Look at Theory and Evidence

    Leo Ahrens, Frank Bandau•ARTICLE•Journal of European Public Policy•2023•Cited by: 6•References: 52

    The expectation that welfare retrenchment and expansion have electoral consequences for governing parties is widespread in welfare state research. Previous research either argues that welfare state change has electoral consequences across the board or that this is at least the case under certain conditions, such as a left party in government. In this study, we synthesize existing theoretical approaches into a stylized theoretical model and discus…

  • The (a)symmetric effects of income and unemployment on popular demand for redistribution

    Leo Ahrens•ARTICLE•West European Politics•2022•Cited by: 5•References: 45

    Numerous studies show that those with lower income and the unemployed support more redistribution, which is attributed to material self-interest. However, recent studies assessing within-individual changes result in smaller and less consistent effect estimates. To explain why preferences do not narrowly follow material self-interest, this study argues that the effects of income and unemployment may be asymmetric, implying that improving and deter…

  • A victim of regulatory arbitrage? Automatic exchange of information and the use of golden visas and corporate shells

    Open Access•Leo Ahrens, Lukas Hakelberg et al.•ARTICLE•Regulation & Governance•2022•Cited by: 6•References: 42

    The multilateral adoption of the automatic exchange of information (AEI) on bank accounts held by nonresidents was a breakthrough in the fight against cross‐border tax evasion, which led to a substantial reduction in the value of bank deposits and investment portfolios in traditional tax havens. However, there is suspicion that sophisticated tax evaders engage in regulatory arbitrage of AEI provisions. We examine whether two widely discussed secr…

  • Unfair inequality and the demand for redistribution: Why Not All Inequality Is Equal

    Open Access•Leo Ahrens•ARTICLE•Socio-Economic Review•2022•Cited by: 14•References: 51

    Political economy research commonly expects a positive relationship between income inequality and the demand for redistribution, which is increasingly attributed to inequality aversion grounded in norms and values. However, people are not averse to a proportion of inequality that fairly results from differences in individual merit. Therefore, this study argues that the effect of inequality crucially depends on the extent to which income fairness …

  • New room to maneuver? National tax policy under increasing financial transparency

    Open Access•Leo Ahrens, Fabio Bothner et al.•ARTICLE•Socio-Economic Review•2022•Cited by: 5•References: 30

    Why have Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) governments raised taxes on dividends at the shareholder level since 2008? Previous research points to the importance of budget deficits and voter demand for compensatory fairness in the aftermath of the financial crisis. We complement this literature by showing that the effect of domestic drivers of tax increases on capital income crucially depends on the level of financial t…

  • Aktienfinanzierung, Arbeitsmarktmobilität und die Spielarten des Kapitalismus: Der mobilisierende Einfluss von Aktienmärkten im Rahmen der VoC-Theorie

    Open Access•Leo Ahrens•ARTICLE•Zeitschrift für Vergleichende…•2019

  • Theorizing the impact of fairness perceptions on the demand for redistribution

    Open Access•Leo Ahrens•ARTICLE•Political Research Exchange•2019•Cited by: 5•References: 15

    Prior research shows that fairness judgements regarding the income distribution have a substantive impact on redistribution preferences. Those who perceive incomes as unfair demand more redistribution. However, the association is undertheorized in previous studies. This article adds to the literature by offering a comprehensive theoretical explanation of why incomes are perceived as unfair and how this influences the demand for redistribution. Ba…

  • The Big Bang: Tax Evasion After Automatic Exchange of Information Under Fatca and CRS

    Leo Ahrens, Fabio Bothner•ARTICLE•New Political Economy•2019•Cited by: 8•References: 10

    After decades of ineffective attempts to fight tax evasion, the Foreign Account Tax Compliance Act (FATCA) and the Common Reporting Standard (CRS) recently implemented the first encompassing international exchange of tax-related information on an automatic basis. This is an important development because tax evasion contributes to rising socio-political inequality and political sovereignty losses. This article assesses the treaties’ impact on tax …

  • The impact of partisanship in the era of retrenchment: Insights from quantitative welfare state research

    Open Access•Frank Bandau, Leo Ahrens•ARTICLE•Journal of European Social Policy•2019•Cited by: 21•References: 32

    Does government partisanship still matter in the era of welfare retrenchment? The comprehensive quantitative research on this question offers contradicting answers. Our meta-analysis demonstrates that the results of published empirical studies depend on a number of the studies’ characteristics. Focusing on studies on retrenchment-prone ‘old social policies’, we show that the single most important factor affecting the results on partisanship is th…

  • The impact of partisanship in the era of retrenchment: Insights from quantitative welfare state research

    Open Access•Frank Bandau, Leo Ahrens•ARTICLE•Journal of European Social Policy•2019•Cited by: 21•References: 32

    Does government partisanship still matter in the era of welfare retrenchment? The comprehensive quantitative research on this question offers contradicting answers. Our meta-analysis demonstrates that the results of published empirical studies depend on a number of the studies’ characteristics. Focusing on studies on retrenchment-prone ‘old social policies’, we show that the single most important factor affecting the results on partisanship is th…

  • Unfair inequality and the demand for redistribution: Why Not All Inequality Is Equal

    Open Access•Leo Ahrens•ARTICLE•Socio-Economic Review•2022•Cited by: 14•References: 51

    Political economy research commonly expects a positive relationship between income inequality and the demand for redistribution, which is increasingly attributed to inequality aversion grounded in norms and values. However, people are not averse to a proportion of inequality that fairly results from differences in individual merit. Therefore, this study argues that the effect of inequality crucially depends on the extent to which income fairness …

  • The Big Bang: Tax Evasion After Automatic Exchange of Information Under Fatca and CRS

    Leo Ahrens, Fabio Bothner•ARTICLE•New Political Economy•2019•Cited by: 8•References: 10

    After decades of ineffective attempts to fight tax evasion, the Foreign Account Tax Compliance Act (FATCA) and the Common Reporting Standard (CRS) recently implemented the first encompassing international exchange of tax-related information on an automatic basis. This is an important development because tax evasion contributes to rising socio-political inequality and political sovereignty losses. This article assesses the treaties’ impact on tax …

  • The electoral consequences of welfare state changes: A Sober Look at Theory and Evidence

    Leo Ahrens, Frank Bandau•ARTICLE•Journal of European Public Policy•2023•Cited by: 6•References: 52

    The expectation that welfare retrenchment and expansion have electoral consequences for governing parties is widespread in welfare state research. Previous research either argues that welfare state change has electoral consequences across the board or that this is at least the case under certain conditions, such as a left party in government. In this study, we synthesize existing theoretical approaches into a stylized theoretical model and discus…

  • A victim of regulatory arbitrage? Automatic exchange of information and the use of golden visas and corporate shells

    Open Access•Leo Ahrens, Lukas Hakelberg et al.•ARTICLE•Regulation & Governance•2022•Cited by: 6•References: 42

    The multilateral adoption of the automatic exchange of information (AEI) on bank accounts held by nonresidents was a breakthrough in the fight against cross‐border tax evasion, which led to a substantial reduction in the value of bank deposits and investment portfolios in traditional tax havens. However, there is suspicion that sophisticated tax evaders engage in regulatory arbitrage of AEI provisions. We examine whether two widely discussed secr…

  • The impact of public opinion on voting and policymaking: Is public opinion exogenous or endogenous

    Open Access•Leo Ahrens•ARTICLE•Zeitschrift für Politikwissenschaft•2024•Cited by: 5•References: 118

    This literature review investigates the effects of public opinion on political outcomes in democracies, focusing on Comparative Political Economy (CPE) research. Many CPE researchers expect that parties and governments respond to public policy preferences that are exogenous to the political process. This review first formalizes the common CPE argument and then derives an alternative theoretical perspective from political psychology and political …

  • The (a)symmetric effects of income and unemployment on popular demand for redistribution

    Leo Ahrens•ARTICLE•West European Politics•2022•Cited by: 5•References: 45

    Numerous studies show that those with lower income and the unemployed support more redistribution, which is attributed to material self-interest. However, recent studies assessing within-individual changes result in smaller and less consistent effect estimates. To explain why preferences do not narrowly follow material self-interest, this study argues that the effects of income and unemployment may be asymmetric, implying that improving and deter…

  • New room to maneuver? National tax policy under increasing financial transparency

    Open Access•Leo Ahrens, Fabio Bothner et al.•ARTICLE•Socio-Economic Review•2022•Cited by: 5•References: 30

    Why have Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) governments raised taxes on dividends at the shareholder level since 2008? Previous research points to the importance of budget deficits and voter demand for compensatory fairness in the aftermath of the financial crisis. We complement this literature by showing that the effect of domestic drivers of tax increases on capital income crucially depends on the level of financial t…

  • Theorizing the impact of fairness perceptions on the demand for redistribution

    Open Access•Leo Ahrens•ARTICLE•Political Research Exchange•2019•Cited by: 5•References: 15

    Prior research shows that fairness judgements regarding the income distribution have a substantive impact on redistribution preferences. Those who perceive incomes as unfair demand more redistribution. However, the association is undertheorized in previous studies. This article adds to the literature by offering a comprehensive theoretical explanation of why incomes are perceived as unfair and how this influences the demand for redistribution. Ba…

  • Labor market risks and welfare preferences: A Bounded Rationality Approach

    Open Access•Leo Ahrens•ARTICLE•Socio-Economic Review•2024•Cited by: 4•References: 47

    This study introduces a bounded rationality approach to welfare preference formation under exposure to labor market risks. It argues that risk exposure only increases welfare demand when it is reasonable to assume that workers are aware of their risk exposure and when future-related concerns are currently salient. Empirical analyses of longitudinal data from Switzerland and 28 European countries support the theory. Swiss workers only optimize the…

  • The electoral consequences of taxation in OECD countries

    Open Access•Leo Ahrens, Frank Bandau•ARTICLE•Electoral Studies•2024•Cited by: 1•References: 51

    Researchers, politicians, and pundits commonly expect that voters retrospectively punish and reward government parties for tax policies, but there is surprisingly little cross-country evidence that backs this claim. This study provides comprehensive evidence from 30 OECD countries, 1970–2020. It analyzes the electoral fates of government parties that increased or cut taxes on personal incomes and consumption. Our findings confirm the prevalence o…

  • Aktienfinanzierung, Arbeitsmarktmobilität und die Spielarten des Kapitalismus: Der mobilisierende Einfluss von Aktienmärkten im Rahmen der VoC-Theorie

    Open Access•Leo Ahrens•ARTICLE•Zeitschrift für Vergleichende…•2019

  • Theorizing the impact of fairness perceptions on the demand for redistribution

    Open Access•Leo Ahrens•ARTICLE•Political Research Exchange•2019•Cited by: 5•References: 15

    Prior research shows that fairness judgements regarding the income distribution have a substantive impact on redistribution preferences. Those who perceive incomes as unfair demand more redistribution. However, the association is undertheorized in previous studies. This article adds to the literature by offering a comprehensive theoretical explanation of why incomes are perceived as unfair and how this influences the demand for redistribution. Ba…

  • The Big Bang: Tax Evasion After Automatic Exchange of Information Under Fatca and CRS

    Leo Ahrens, Fabio Bothner•ARTICLE•New Political Economy•2019•Cited by: 8•References: 10

    After decades of ineffective attempts to fight tax evasion, the Foreign Account Tax Compliance Act (FATCA) and the Common Reporting Standard (CRS) recently implemented the first encompassing international exchange of tax-related information on an automatic basis. This is an important development because tax evasion contributes to rising socio-political inequality and political sovereignty losses. This article assesses the treaties’ impact on tax …

  • The impact of partisanship in the era of retrenchment: Insights from quantitative welfare state research

    Open Access•Frank Bandau, Leo Ahrens•ARTICLE•Journal of European Social Policy•2019•Cited by: 21•References: 32

    Does government partisanship still matter in the era of welfare retrenchment? The comprehensive quantitative research on this question offers contradicting answers. Our meta-analysis demonstrates that the results of published empirical studies depend on a number of the studies’ characteristics. Focusing on studies on retrenchment-prone ‘old social policies’, we show that the single most important factor affecting the results on partisanship is th…

  • The (a)symmetric effects of income and unemployment on popular demand for redistribution

    Leo Ahrens•ARTICLE•West European Politics•2022•Cited by: 5•References: 45

    Numerous studies show that those with lower income and the unemployed support more redistribution, which is attributed to material self-interest. However, recent studies assessing within-individual changes result in smaller and less consistent effect estimates. To explain why preferences do not narrowly follow material self-interest, this study argues that the effects of income and unemployment may be asymmetric, implying that improving and deter…

  • A victim of regulatory arbitrage? Automatic exchange of information and the use of golden visas and corporate shells

    Open Access•Leo Ahrens, Lukas Hakelberg et al.•ARTICLE•Regulation & Governance•2022•Cited by: 6•References: 42

    The multilateral adoption of the automatic exchange of information (AEI) on bank accounts held by nonresidents was a breakthrough in the fight against cross‐border tax evasion, which led to a substantial reduction in the value of bank deposits and investment portfolios in traditional tax havens. However, there is suspicion that sophisticated tax evaders engage in regulatory arbitrage of AEI provisions. We examine whether two widely discussed secr…

  • Unfair inequality and the demand for redistribution: Why Not All Inequality Is Equal

    Open Access•Leo Ahrens•ARTICLE•Socio-Economic Review•2022•Cited by: 14•References: 51

    Political economy research commonly expects a positive relationship between income inequality and the demand for redistribution, which is increasingly attributed to inequality aversion grounded in norms and values. However, people are not averse to a proportion of inequality that fairly results from differences in individual merit. Therefore, this study argues that the effect of inequality crucially depends on the extent to which income fairness …

  • New room to maneuver? National tax policy under increasing financial transparency

    Open Access•Leo Ahrens, Fabio Bothner et al.•ARTICLE•Socio-Economic Review•2022•Cited by: 5•References: 30

    Why have Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) governments raised taxes on dividends at the shareholder level since 2008? Previous research points to the importance of budget deficits and voter demand for compensatory fairness in the aftermath of the financial crisis. We complement this literature by showing that the effect of domestic drivers of tax increases on capital income crucially depends on the level of financial t…

  • The electoral consequences of welfare state changes: A Sober Look at Theory and Evidence

    Leo Ahrens, Frank Bandau•ARTICLE•Journal of European Public Policy•2023•Cited by: 6•References: 52

    The expectation that welfare retrenchment and expansion have electoral consequences for governing parties is widespread in welfare state research. Previous research either argues that welfare state change has electoral consequences across the board or that this is at least the case under certain conditions, such as a left party in government. In this study, we synthesize existing theoretical approaches into a stylized theoretical model and discus…

  • The electoral consequences of taxation in OECD countries

    Open Access•Leo Ahrens, Frank Bandau•ARTICLE•Electoral Studies•2024•Cited by: 1•References: 51

    Researchers, politicians, and pundits commonly expect that voters retrospectively punish and reward government parties for tax policies, but there is surprisingly little cross-country evidence that backs this claim. This study provides comprehensive evidence from 30 OECD countries, 1970–2020. It analyzes the electoral fates of government parties that increased or cut taxes on personal incomes and consumption. Our findings confirm the prevalence o…

  • The impact of public opinion on voting and policymaking: Is public opinion exogenous or endogenous

    Open Access•Leo Ahrens•ARTICLE•Zeitschrift für Politikwissenschaft•2024•Cited by: 5•References: 118

    This literature review investigates the effects of public opinion on political outcomes in democracies, focusing on Comparative Political Economy (CPE) research. Many CPE researchers expect that parties and governments respond to public policy preferences that are exogenous to the political process. This review first formalizes the common CPE argument and then derives an alternative theoretical perspective from political psychology and political …

  • Labor market risks and welfare preferences: A Bounded Rationality Approach

    Open Access•Leo Ahrens•ARTICLE•Socio-Economic Review•2024•Cited by: 4•References: 47

    This study introduces a bounded rationality approach to welfare preference formation under exposure to labor market risks. It argues that risk exposure only increases welfare demand when it is reasonable to assume that workers are aware of their risk exposure and when future-related concerns are currently salient. Empirical analyses of longitudinal data from Switzerland and 28 European countries support the theory. Swiss workers only optimize the…

  • The Equality Positions and Policies of Governments, 1970–2020: How Egalitarian Parties Evoke Equality While Evading Real Redistribution

    Open Access•Alexander Horn, Leo Ahrens•ARTICLE•British Journal of Political…•2026

    Despite egalitarian rhetoric, governments often fail to implement redistributive policies. We argue that selective egalitarianism helps to understand this puzzle. Analysing a new dataset of 850,000 manifesto statements and equality policies in 12 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries (1970–2020), we show that even parties committed to equality avoid taxing the rich. Instead of engaging in complex top-end taxation…

  • The great Caribbean divergence: Colonial economic structure and the emergence of tax havens in the ‘British West Indies’

    Open Access•Lukas Hakelberg, Leo Ahrens et al.•ARTICLE•Review of International Political…•2026

    Most jurisdictions formerly ruled from London as the British West Indies (BWI) are unimportant for offshore tax planning and offshore money creation, despite sharing traits conventionally associated with tax havens. Why have only some former BWI colonies become attractive locations for the main offshore activities while most others have not? We argue that soil fertility ultimately explains this variance. Settlers created plantation economies on i…

Economics (11 works) · Political science (8 works) · Law (7 works) · Public economics (7 works) · Social Policy and Reform Studies (7 works) · Electoral Systems and Political Participation (5 works) · Politics (5 works) · Corporate Taxation and Avoidance (4 works) · Demographic economics (4 works) · Law (4 works)

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