Janice Gross Stein
Biographic Data
| ID | 1019447 |
|---|---|
| NAME | Janice Gross Stein |
| GIVEN NAMES | Janice Gross |
| FAMILY NAME | Stein |
| SIGNATURE | STEIN J G |
| AFFILIATIONS | University of Toronto |
| ORCID | 0000-0002-3218-8808 |
| VERIFIED | Yes |
| TOTAL WORKS | 76 |
| TOTAL CITATIONS | 677 |
| AUTHOR COUNT | 75 |
| EDITOR COUNT | 1 |
| FIRST PUBLICATION YEAR | 1969 |
| LATEST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2025 |
| H-INDEX | 16 |
The Elements of Deterrence: Strategy, Technology, and Complexity in Global Politics
Radical uncertainty and pragmatism: Threat perception and response
This article brings a pragmatic perspective to the analysis of threat perception in two important ways. First, as does the philosophical tradition of pragmatism, the article joins perception (or knowledge) together with response (action). Perception and response, knowledge and action, are inextricably linked as people learn through the creation of knowledge what is useful in the world. It is in this sense that pragmatists understand the perceptio…
The Political Economy of Security Agreements: The Linked Costs of Failure at Camp David
The Political Psychology of Threat Assessment
This chapter examines the methodologies used by policy analysts, review panelists, and scholars to assess the capabilities and probabilities of threat. Each of these groups uses somewhat different methodologies, or practices, shaped in part not only by differences in time pressures and degrees of uncertainty but also by culture. All three groups use largely quantitative methodologies to assess capabilities, and two groups use survey and experimen…
How not to think like a hegemon
As the United States experiences a relative decline in its share of global GDP and China increases its relative share, there is growing concern about the consequences of intensifying competition between the two great powers. This article takes a wider angled view, warns against a single narrative and provides a collection of plausible stories. First, the story of the rise of China and the decline of the United States that relies heavily on ‘hard’…
Back to the Past: Counterfactuals and the Cuban Missile Crisis
Testing Deterrence by Denial: Experimental Results from Criminology
Deterrence by denial is gaining attention as a counter-terrorism strategy. Yet there are formidable obstacles to testing its empirical validity. We argue that experimental and quasi-experimental evidence from criminology offers support for deterrence by denial strategies. Studies of individual offending, gangs, and mafias suggest that deterrence by denial would not displace terrorist activity elsewhere. We also find evidence that physical target …
The Micro-Foundations of International Relations Theory: Psychology and Behavioral Economics
Almost forty years ago, a small group of scholars drew on cognitive psychology to explain anomalous patterns of behavior by leaders on issues of international security. Although it made significant contributions to theory and research, that scholarship did not diffuse broadly into the field. Drawing on concepts in psychology and behavioral economics, research that uses new methods is now producing a wave of scholarship in international relations …
Psychological Explanations of International Decision Making and Collective Behavior
Threat Perception in International Relations
Bridging the Sacred and the Profane in Humanitarian Life
This chapter addresses two arguments on the basic differences between "secular" and "religious" organizations. It first studies the creation of the layered and complicated meanings of the sacred in the life of modern humanitarian organizations. It then studies two religious and two secular organizations and how they express and give meaning to the sacred. The chapter also discusses the consequences of the creation of the sacred, which is common t…
Sacred Aid: Faith and Humanitarianism
Collectively, the chapters in this volume comprise an original and authoritative account of how religion has reshaped the global humanitarian movement in recent times.
Autobiographical reflections on bridging the policy–academy divide
In this roundtable, a panel of distinguished scholars reflects on the possibilities, dangers and rewards of academics transgressing the policy–academy divide. Both Krasner and Nye point to the differences in culture between policy and academic realms. Krasner shows how the policymakers are primarily concerned with conceptual framing while academics are more concerned with testing propositions. He describes how the garbage-can model of policymakin…
Crisis Management: Looking Back to Look Forward
Alexander George made a seminal contribution to theories of preventive diplomacy, crisis management, deterrence, and coercive diplomacy. Although he made his contribution in the highly structured environment of the Cold War, his analysis of the close connections between positive and negative inducements, the importance of interests in shaping outcomes, and the dangers of threat‐based strategies as substitutes for policy speaks to the central chal…
Uneasy Partners: Multiculturalism and Rights in Canada
After decades of extraordinary successes as a multicultural society, new debates are bubbling to the surface in Canada. The contributors to this volume examine the conflict between equality rights, as embedded in the Charter, and multiculturalism as policy and practice, and ask which charter value should trump which and under what circumstances? The opening essay deliberately sharpens the conflict among religion, culture, and equality rights and …
Contemporary Antisemitism: Canada and the World
With its combination of voices from both scholarship and leadership and its unique assessment of antisemitism in Canada and the struggle against it, Contemporary Antisemitism offers new perspectives on one of the world?s most ancient and diffuse hatreds.
Humanitarianism as Political Fusion
Michael Barnett has written a brilliant—and sobering—analysis of the dilemmas of humanitarian organizations in contemporary global politics. He argues convincingly that humanitarianism is becoming politicized and that humanitarian organizations are becoming institutionalized. These changes speak to core conceptualizations by humanitarians of themselves and to their capacity to fulfill their most essential functions. Barnett appropriately draws at…
Understanding the End of the Cold War as a Non-Linear Confluence
The end of the Cold War changed the world and the way we think about it. It ushered in a profound transformation of the international system, and has already become a critical case for the generation and testing of theories about conflict resolution and international relations more generally. The policy and theoretical lessons we draw from the largely peaceful end to a conflict that threatened the survival of humankind depend on the explanations …
Taboos and regional security regimes
A security regime is an uneasy compromise where the relationship among the parties is generally undefined, limited in scope, and transitional. The relationship is undefined, because the parties are usually former adversaries who, for the moment, do not think of war as a feasible or practical, or, under some conditions, even a possible instrument. Yet they are far from being allies. A security regime differs in important ways from an alliance or a…
Psychological Explanations of International Conflict
Street Protests and Fantasy Parks: Globalization, Culture, and the State
Preface 1. Street Protests and Fantasy Parks / David R. Cameron and Janice Gross Stein 2. The Global Entertainment Economy / John Hannigan 3. Transnationalism, Diasporic Communities, and Changing Identity: Implications for Canadian Citizenship Policy / Lloyd L. Wong 4. Civil Society Activism on the World Wide Web: The Case of the Anti-MAI Lobby / Ronald J. Deibert 5. Communication and Globalization: A Challenge for Public Policy / Marc Raboy 6. T…
Resolve, Accept, or Avoid: Effects of Group Conflict on Foreign Policy Decisions
In the Eye of the Storm: Humanitarian NGOs, Complex Emergencies, and Conflict Resolution
The challenges faced by non-governmental organizations seeking to mitigate violence within the context of “complex humanitarian emergencies” create new dilemmas and require new strategies. These emergencies arise from violence inflicted by one group against another within the confines of a state, from the capture of state institutions by one group, or by the collapse of these institutions and the failure of governance. They develop within a conte…
What Is the Polity
The sovereign state became the dominant political form in a relatively brief period that began in Westphalian Europe and continued with European colonization. Contemporary states face increased challenges from inside and outside, and a global crisis of authority looms. Although the state as a form is highly variable and not about to disappear, a growing number and variety of other polities are moving toward center stage. The initiators of this ro…
Globalization, Culture and Society: The State as Place Amidst Shifting Spaces
David Cameron, Janice Gross Stein, Globalization, Culture and Society: The State as Place Amidst Shifting Spaces, Canadian Public Policy / Analyse de Politiques, Vol. 26, Supplement: The Trends Project (Aug., 2000), pp. S15-S34
Rational Deterrence Theory: I Think, Therefore I Deter
Deterrence theories purport to supply the auxiliary assumptions rational choice theories need to predict rational strategic behavior. They generally assume that would-be initiators are (i) instrumentally rational; (2) risk-prone gain-maximizers; (3) free of domestic constraints; and (4) able to identify themselves correctly as defenders or challengers. These assumptions are contradicted by empirical studies that indicate that risk-prone, gain-max…
A framework for research on foreign policy behavior
Deterrence: The Elusive Dependent Variable
Empirical analyses of deterrence have paid insufficient attention to the validity and reliability of the data used to test the central propositions of theories of deterrence. This article examines two prominent studies of immediate extended deterrence that do not deal adequately with the problems inherent in constructing a valid data set for quantitative analysis. The problems are particularly acute in the testing of theories of deterrence becaus…
Political learning by doing: Gorbachev as uncommitted thinker and motivated learner
The direction and scope of the change in Soviet foreign policy after 1985 cannot be explained without reference to the impact of Gorbachev's representation of the Soviet security problem. Changes in the international distribution of capabilities and generational change are indeterminate explanations of the changes in Soviet foreign policy. Building on propositions from social cognition and organizational psychology, I argue that through inductive…
Building Politics into Psychology: The Misperception of Threat
The impact of cognitive and motivated errors on the misperception of threat is examined. These errors are then treated as mediating variables and the impact of political and strategic variables which make these errors more likely or compound their impact is assessed. The essay concludes that explanations of the misperception of threat are deficient in three important ways. Current theories do not consider the interaction among cognitive heuristic…
Getting to the Table: Processes of International Prenegotiation
A significant contribution toward a broader theory of negotiation... Prenegotiation triggers, shapes, and structures the negotiations that follow and contributes in important ways to the learning process.--Foreign Affairs
Beyond Deterrence
Part I of this essay reviews cases of deterrence failure and assesses the political, psychological, and practical obstacles to the success of deterrence. The evidence suggests that the utility of deterrence is limited to a narrow range of cases. It is appropriate only when leaders are motivated largely by “opportunity” rather than by “need,” have the political freedom to exercise restraint, are not misled by grossly distorted assessments of the p…
God Gave Physics the Easy Problems: Adapting Social Science to an Unpredictable World
For conceptual and empirical reasons the quest for predictive theory rests on a mistaken analogy between physical and social phenomena. Evolutionary biology is a more productive analogy for social science. We explore the value of this analogy in its `hard' and `soft' versions, and examine the implications of both for theory and research in International Relations. We develop the case for forward `tracking' of International Relations on the basis …
Psychology and Deterrence
Now available in paperback, Psychology and Deterrence reveals deterrence strategy's hidden and generally simplistic assumptions about the nature of power and aggression, threat and response, and calculation and behavior in the international arena.
Getting to the Table: The Triggers, Stages, Functions, and Consequences of Prenegotiation
Janice Gross Stein, Getting to the Table: The Triggers, Stages, Functions, and Consequences of Prenegotiation, International Journal, Vol. 44, No. 2, Getting to the Table: Process of International Prenegotiation (Spring, 1989), pp. 475-504
The Micro-Foundations of International Relations Theory: Psychology and Behavioral Economics
Almost forty years ago, a small group of scholars drew on cognitive psychology to explain anomalous patterns of behavior by leaders on issues of international security. Although it made significant contributions to theory and research, that scholarship did not diffuse broadly into the field. Drawing on concepts in psychology and behavioral economics, research that uses new methods is now producing a wave of scholarship in international relations …
Reassurance in International Conflict Management
Journal Article Reassurance in International Conflict Management Get access Janice Gross Stein Janice Gross Stein JANICE GROSS STEIN is professor of political science at the University of Toronto and a fellow of the Royal Society of Canada. She co-authored (with Robert Jervis and Richard Ned Lebow) Psychology and Deterrence and recently edited Getting to the Table: Processes of International Prenegotiation. Search for other works by this author o…
Detection and Defection: Security 'régimes' and the Management of International Conflict
Deterrence and Compellence in the Gulf, 1990-91: A Failed or Impossible Task
Choosing to Co-Operate: How States Avoid Loss
This is an excellent book. The conceptual framework is new and challenging in adapting prospect theory to foreign policy decisionmaking; the cases are well chosen, clearly written, and analytically strong; the theoretical and applied implications of the work are highly suggestive and stimulating; and the writing is sensible and mercifully sententious.--Edward Kolodziej, University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign
International Co-Operation and Loss Avoidance: Framing the Problem
Extended Deterrence in the Middle East: American Strategy Reconsidered
WHEN leaders extend deterrence, they attempt to prevent a military attack against an ally by threatening retaliation should force be used against their protégé. At present, most analysts locate extended deterrence at the intersection of nuclear and conventional force in Europe; the United States relies heavily on this strategy to protect its allies. The extension of deterrence to Europe, however, is only one among several possible applications of…
Resolve, Accept, or Avoid: Effects of Group Conflict on Foreign Policy Decisions
Autobiographical reflections on bridging the policy–academy divide
In this roundtable, a panel of distinguished scholars reflects on the possibilities, dangers and rewards of academics transgressing the policy–academy divide. Both Krasner and Nye point to the differences in culture between policy and academic realms. Krasner shows how the policymakers are primarily concerned with conceptual framing while academics are more concerned with testing propositions. He describes how the garbage-can model of policymakin…
What Is the Polity
The sovereign state became the dominant political form in a relatively brief period that began in Westphalian Europe and continued with European colonization. Contemporary states face increased challenges from inside and outside, and a global crisis of authority looms. Although the state as a form is highly variable and not about to disappear, a growing number and variety of other polities are moving toward center stage. The initiators of this ro…
Deterrence and the Cold War
RICHARD NED LEBOW is professor of international relations at the Graduate School of Public and International Affairs at the University of Pittsburgh. He is the author of Between Peace and War: The Nature of International Crisis; Nuclear Crisis Management, and with Janice Gross Stein We All Lost the Cold War. JANICE GROSS STEIN is the Harrowston Professor of Conflict Management and Negotiation at the University of Toronto. She is the author of Get…
Intelligence’ and ‘stupidity’ reconsidered: Estimation and decision in Israel, 1973
Globalization, Culture and Society: The State as Place Amidst Shifting Spaces
David Cameron, Janice Gross Stein, Globalization, Culture and Society: The State as Place Amidst Shifting Spaces, Canadian Public Policy / Analyse de Politiques, Vol. 26, Supplement: The Trends Project (Aug., 2000), pp. S15-S34
Deterrence and learning in an enduring rivalry: Egypt and Israel, 1948–73
Prenegotiation in the Arab-Israeli Conflict: The Paradoxes of Success and Failure
Prenegotiation has been extraordinarily important in the ArabIsraeli conflict. Throughout much of its history, direct contact was impossible and formal negotiation very difficult, even when it was done through intermediaries. Consequently, the testing of the intentions of one party by another, the examination of negotiation as an option, and the tentative assessment of the likelihood of agreement have all occurred frequently between Israel and Ar…
A framework for research on foreign policy behavior
Freud and Descartes: The Paradoxes of Psychological Logic
Students of international politics have focused their attention recently on the complex interdependencies among states and the increasing constraints on the ability of central decision-makers to manage their environment.1 The scope for independent action by foreign-policy decision-makers has been reduced by uncontrolled technology, uncontrollable market forces, and overcomplicated and poorly specified international processes. At home, a maze of o…
Deterrence: A Conceptual Analysis
Newly revised in the light of the renewed debate of the last five years, this second edition of Patrick Morgan's book is a comprehensive review of the logic and the practice of deterrence. Morgan highlights the difficulties involved in immediate deterrence, the use of threat to deter in a specific, immediate situation. He then explores the irrationality of the strategic options that general nuclear deterrence offers. He shows how differences in t…
Intelligence’ and ‘stupidity’ reconsidered: Estimation and decision in Israel, 1973
Proxy Wars: How Superpowers End Them: The Diplomacy of War Termination in the Middle East
Rational Decision-Making: Israel's Choices, 1967
Proxy Wars - How Superpowers End Them: The Diplomacy of War Termination in the Middle East
Military deception, strategic surprise, and conventional deterrence: A political analysis of Egypt and Israel, 1971–73
(1982). Military deception, strategic surprise, and conventional deterrence: A political analysis of Egypt and Israel, 1971–73. Journal of Strategic Studies: Vol. 5, Military Deception and Strategic Surprise, pp. 94-121
Leadership in Peacemaking: Fate, Will, and Fortuna in the Middle East
Framing Decision-Making
In a sense unintended by the authors, these two closely related books present a story within a story. Both Rational DecisionMaking and Decisions in Crisis are striking efforts to understand the decision-making substance and process of a key actor in the Middle East imbroglio Israel. In addition, the authors strive to evaluate the quality of the decision-making choices against current insights offered by rational and other decision-making framewor…
The Middle East at the Crossroads: Regional Forces & External Powers
Part 1 Regional forces: OPEC - past, present and future and the defence of civilized commentary - civilization and defence against further reflections on terrorism and the defence of civilized values political implications of fundamentalist Islam. Part 2 External powers: Accommodation of agression? an examination of some of the factors shaping Soviet foreign policy in the 1980s/89 American foreign policy in the Middle East - a study in changing p…
The Alchemy of Peacemaking: The Prerequisites and Corequisites of Progress in the Arab-Israel Conflict
Janice Gross Stein, The Alchemy of Peacemaking: The Prerequisites and Corequisites of Progress in the Arab-Israel Conflict, International Journal, Vol. 38, No. 4, The Middle East after Lebanon (Autumn, 1983), pp. 531-555
Structures, strategies, and tactics of mediation: Kissinger and carter in the middle east
Structures, Strategies, and Tactics of Mediations Kissinger and Carter in the Middle East
Peace-Making in the Middle East
Detection and Defection: Security 'régimes' and the Management of International Conflict
The New Psychology of War and Peace
Beyond Deterrence: Building Better Theory
Beyond Deterrence
Part I of this essay reviews cases of deterrence failure and assesses the political, psychological, and practical obstacles to the success of deterrence. The evidence suggests that the utility of deterrence is limited to a narrow range of cases. It is appropriate only when leaders are motivated largely by “opportunity” rather than by “need,” have the political freedom to exercise restraint, are not misled by grossly distorted assessments of the p…
Extended Deterrence in the Middle East: American Strategy Reconsidered
WHEN leaders extend deterrence, they attempt to prevent a military attack against an ally by threatening retaliation should force be used against their protégé. At present, most analysts locate extended deterrence at the intersection of nuclear and conventional force in Europe; the United States relies heavily on this strategy to protect its allies. The extension of deterrence to Europe, however, is only one among several possible applications of…
The Wrong Strategy in the Right Place: The United States in the Gulf
Domestic Politics and International Conflict Management
Building Politics into Psychology: The Misperception of Threat
The impact of cognitive and motivated errors on the misperception of threat is examined. These errors are then treated as mediating variables and the impact of political and strategic variables which make these errors more likely or compound their impact is assessed. The essay concludes that explanations of the misperception of threat are deficient in three important ways. Current theories do not consider the interaction among cognitive heuristic…
Psychology and Deterrence
Now available in paperback, Psychology and Deterrence reveals deterrence strategy's hidden and generally simplistic assumptions about the nature of power and aggression, threat and response, and calculation and behavior in the international arena.
Rational Deterrence Theory: I Think, Therefore I Deter
Deterrence theories purport to supply the auxiliary assumptions rational choice theories need to predict rational strategic behavior. They generally assume that would-be initiators are (i) instrumentally rational; (2) risk-prone gain-maximizers; (3) free of domestic constraints; and (4) able to identify themselves correctly as defenders or challengers. These assumptions are contradicted by empirical studies that indicate that risk-prone, gain-max…
Political science (66 works) · Law (50 works) · Law (38 works) · Sociology (34 works) · Economics (31 works) · Politics (30 works) · International Relations and Foreign Policy (26 works) · Political economy (26 works) · Psychology (26 works) · Computer Science (24 works)