Leighton Vaughan-Williams
Biographic Data
| ID | 10694194 |
|---|---|
| NAME | Leighton Vaughan-Williams |
| GIVEN NAMES | Leighton |
| FAMILY NAME | Vaughan-Williams |
| SIGNATURE | VAUGHAN-WILLIAMS L |
| VERIFIED | No |
| TOTAL WORKS | 32 |
| TOTAL CITATIONS | 0 |
| WORKS AS AUTHOR | 0 |
| WORKS AS EDITOR | 32 |
| FIRST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2013 |
| LATEST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2013 |
| H-INDEX | 0 |
Pricing Decisions and Insider Trading in Fixed-Odds Horse Betting Markets
This chapter conceptualizes fixed-odds horse betting markets as implicit call option markets. The decision-making process of a bookmaker is a model that sets prices under uncertainty, showing that when a bookmaker follows this pricing process built on implicit options the returns will exhibit a favorite-longshot bias. By performing Monte Carlo simulations, option values are generated and a measurement made of the degree of insider trading.
The Efficiency of Soccer Betting Markets
This chapter evaluates the performance of forecasting models of the efficiency of soccer betting markets. A nontechnical description of a forecasting model is provided, based on a large-scale number-crunching exercise using historical match results and other relevant data. It also examines whether forecasting models of this kind can provide the basis for the development of profitable fixed-odds betting strategies. A prior hypothesis is that oppor…
The Benefits and Costs of Slot Machine Gambling
This chapter reviews the basic economic welfare criteria for slot machines, as implemented via benefit-cost analysis. More specifically, it provides a conceptualization of the benefits and costs of slot machines, as well as a scorecard for key elements of a benefit-cost analysis. The chapter also presents several illustrative empirical studies and discusses areas for additional research.
On The Long-Run Sustainability of Tote Betting Markets
For the past century, tote operators and horseracing bettors have enjoyed a mutually satisfying relationship. However, the past decade or so has seen periods of decline in tote (totalizator) betting, which many attribute to the (supposed) increasing population of well-informed and (hypothetically, in the extreme) so-called sophisticated players who are believed to be extracting disproportionate amounts from the pools such that other more “casual”…
Evidence of Biased Decision-Making in Betting Markets
Betting markets constitute naturalistic decision-making environments, which offer great potential for helping to understand individuals’ decision-making behavior. These markets feature many of the aspects of real-world decision environments. In particular, they are associated with rich, dynamic information sets, offer strong incentives to participants for success, require the commitment of the individual’s own resources, and involve repeated tria…
The Long History of Political Betting Markets
The conventional wisdom is that political futures markets are a recent invention. However, such markets have a long history in many Western countries. This chapter traces the operation of political futures markets back to sixteenth-century Italy, eighteenth-century Britain and Ireland, nineteenth-century Canada, and twentieth-century Australia and Singapore. In the United States election betting was a common part of political campaigns in the pre…
The Science and Economics of Poker
Although poker has roots in card games played in Europe and the Middle East as far back as the fifteenth century, the modern game of poker originated in the early nineteenth century in the gambling saloons of New Orleans. It has long been the most popular card game among Americans. It has recently reached unprecedented popularity due to a variety of factors, including television and Internet exposure. Poker is somewhat unique among gambling activ…
Insider Trading in Betting Markets
The focus of this chapter is the racing betting market, notably the gallops, harness, and greyhounds. A key issue is whether the presence of betting insiders at the track implies that their presence is easily measured. It is shown that this is a function of the microstructure of the particular betting market. In some markets, the impact of insider trading is readily measured, while in others, it has hitherto proven virtually impossible. The diffe…
The Kelly Criterion with Games of Chance
An important betting strategy in games of chance is the Kelly strategy, through which the expected logarithm of final wealth is maximized. In this chapter, the Kelly strategy and its associated fractional strategies are discussed. The advantages and disadvantages of such a strategy are described, in general, and in particular, with application to a variety of games: blackjack, horseracing, lotto, and anomalies in the index futures markets. The co…
The Elasticity of Casino Gambling
This chapter examines the price, cross, and income elasticity of demand for casino gambling. The focus is specifically on casino gambling, as opposed to other forms of gambling, such as lottery or pari-mutuel wagering. Nevertheless, in the case of price elasticity comparisons with other forms of gambling are made to provide a context for the reader. Similarly, in the case of income elasticity comparisons are made between casino revenue versus inc…
A Primer on the Mathematics of Gambling
A mathematical analysis of gambling can explain why over time , one player wins and another loses. In the context of commercial gaming the “player” who wins is typically the house?the operators of the casino, racetrack, card room, or lottery. Simply put, commercial gaming enterprises generate a profit due to the mathematics behind the games. As many experienced gamblers have learned—for better or worse—and some knowledgeable insiders have voiced,…
Behavioral Finance and Point Spread Wagering Markets
The objective of this chapter is to review and extend an emerging body of research that tests theories, models, and general predictions of human behavior—most of which are rooted in psychology—while using the point spread wagering market as the setting. The bridge between behavioral psychology and sports betting is provided by the growing field of behavioral finance, a relatively new subdiscipline of behavioral economics.
The National Lottery
The first National Lottery draw of the modern era took place on November 19, 1994. However, since the time of Queen Elizabeth I, running a state-sponsored lottery has been commonplace. Between 1566 and 1826, with a break between 1699 and 1710, state-sponsored lotteries were held in England either under a separate act of Parliament or by means of license from the sovereign. This chapter traces the development of the National Lottery and considers …
The Efficiency of Pelota Betting Markets
In pelota matches, which are games with two mutually exclusive and exhaustive outcomes, wagers on the winner are made between viewers through a middleman who receives 16 percent of the payout. This chapter presents an analysis of this betting market under three different concepts of market efficiency widely utilized in the literature. Attention is then turned to another concept of market efficiency with the preliminary analysis of a set of field …
The Football Pools
In principle, the term football pools could be applied to any pari-mutuel wagering concerning the outcomes, or any other aspects, of football (soccer) matches. However, it has long been used more specifically to refer to long-odds, high-prize gambling games where entitlement to a share of the jackpot is linked to football results. Long odds are inherent in the product and are achieved by requiring players to match their guesses or forecasts with …
How Does Implementation of a Smoking Ban Affect Gaming?
This chapter reviews the literature on gaming and the restriction of smoking and then examines data on the riverboat casino market in the Illinois portion of the St. Louis Metropolitan area. This market is then used as a case study to discuss the issues of a localized smoking ban where patrons have access to neighboring substitute establishments that are not subject to such restrictions.
Motivation in Betting Markets
Betting markets are diverse but share several distinguishing traits. Generally, they are open for short periods and have an endpoint that relates to an event whose occurrence (but not outcome) is known in advance. Due to substantial operating fees and taxes, betting is a less-than-zero-sum transaction, and there are limited opportunities to sell securities or to arbitrage positions. Betting markets, then, are very different from financial markets…
Betting on Simultaneous Events and Accumulator Gambles
As bettors become more sophisticated, there is an increasing focus on bankroll risk management or how much to bet on certain opportunities. Bettors often face situations where multiple games are played simultaneously. Thus, the problem of allocating capital across different games or events must be considered, much the same as an investor allocating capital to different stocks in a portfolio. In this chapter, the use of accumulator bets (parlays) …
The Taxation Of Gambling Machines
Over the past decade, U.K. gambling sector has experienced several regulatory shocks that have led to considerable debate and controversy within the industry and policy-making communities. Although there is a well-established literature on the economic impact of the growth of gambling facilities on local and regional economies in the United States and the United Kingdom, relatively little research has focused on optimal taxation of gambling machi…
The Economics of Racetrack-Casino (Racino) Gambling
The inclusion of casino-style gambling (henceforth gaming) at pari-mutuel racetracks, beginning in 1990, has changed the landscape of the pari-mutuel racing and wagering industry in the United States. To investigate the implications of racetrack–casino (henceforth racino) betting on the pari-mutuel racing and wagering industry, this chapter examines long-run trends in pari-mutuel horse race wagering and reports results of economic studies of the …
The Efficiency Of Lottery Markets
This chapter analyzes the degree to which lottery players demonstrate rational behavior and how they use available information to make decisions about participation and level of play. Overall, players of lotto games act as if they understand the rules of the game and appropriately use relevant information about the games. Exceptions to efficiency are found, but these inefficiencies cannot be easily exploited by bettors.
The Economics of Asian Casino Gaming and Gambling
This chapter examines the economics of Asian casino gambling and the factors responsible for the evolution and organization of the casino industries. In addition to the market fundamentals, the significance of the unique features of Asian culture and related institutional structure of gaming industry performance are addressed. Finally, controversial debates over the social benefits and costs of casino gaming in Asia are evaluated.
The Economics Of Online Sports Betting
This chapter provides an overview of the online sports betting industry from an economic and legal perspective. The dual focus is necessary, given that the overlapping, and sometimes conflicting, regulatory environment lends itself to a decidedly “law and economics” inquiry. Following this overview of the pre-Internet environment is a multifaceted treatment of the online sportsbook, explaining the decided shift in its economic characteristics and…
The Lure of the Pitcher
This study explores the impact of elite starting pitchers on the Major League Baseball betting market. Starting pitchers are the key defensive element of a baseball game, and their value is generally reflected in the market odds on baseball games. This study uses highly detailed and previously unavailable data to examine the role of elite starting pitchers on game betting volume, percentage bet on the favorite and the underdog, and percentage bet…
Exploiting Expert Analysis? Evidence from Event Studies in an Information-Rich Market Environment
This chapter evaluates the record of media forecasters in selecting winners, with returns judged against the benchmark of information efficiency as specified in the efficient-market hypothesis, updating in particular prior analyses of the well-established Pricewise tipping column in the industry newspaper the Racing Post with a new and bigger dataset. Most notably, the analysis seeks to establish whether or not the feature’s previously impressive…
No prominent works on this page.
Pricing Decisions and Insider Trading in Fixed-Odds Horse Betting Markets
This chapter conceptualizes fixed-odds horse betting markets as implicit call option markets. The decision-making process of a bookmaker is a model that sets prices under uncertainty, showing that when a bookmaker follows this pricing process built on implicit options the returns will exhibit a favorite-longshot bias. By performing Monte Carlo simulations, option values are generated and a measurement made of the degree of insider trading.
The Efficiency of Soccer Betting Markets
This chapter evaluates the performance of forecasting models of the efficiency of soccer betting markets. A nontechnical description of a forecasting model is provided, based on a large-scale number-crunching exercise using historical match results and other relevant data. It also examines whether forecasting models of this kind can provide the basis for the development of profitable fixed-odds betting strategies. A prior hypothesis is that oppor…
The Benefits and Costs of Slot Machine Gambling
This chapter reviews the basic economic welfare criteria for slot machines, as implemented via benefit-cost analysis. More specifically, it provides a conceptualization of the benefits and costs of slot machines, as well as a scorecard for key elements of a benefit-cost analysis. The chapter also presents several illustrative empirical studies and discusses areas for additional research.
On The Long-Run Sustainability of Tote Betting Markets
For the past century, tote operators and horseracing bettors have enjoyed a mutually satisfying relationship. However, the past decade or so has seen periods of decline in tote (totalizator) betting, which many attribute to the (supposed) increasing population of well-informed and (hypothetically, in the extreme) so-called sophisticated players who are believed to be extracting disproportionate amounts from the pools such that other more “casual”…
Evidence of Biased Decision-Making in Betting Markets
Betting markets constitute naturalistic decision-making environments, which offer great potential for helping to understand individuals’ decision-making behavior. These markets feature many of the aspects of real-world decision environments. In particular, they are associated with rich, dynamic information sets, offer strong incentives to participants for success, require the commitment of the individual’s own resources, and involve repeated tria…
The Long History of Political Betting Markets
The conventional wisdom is that political futures markets are a recent invention. However, such markets have a long history in many Western countries. This chapter traces the operation of political futures markets back to sixteenth-century Italy, eighteenth-century Britain and Ireland, nineteenth-century Canada, and twentieth-century Australia and Singapore. In the United States election betting was a common part of political campaigns in the pre…
The Science and Economics of Poker
Although poker has roots in card games played in Europe and the Middle East as far back as the fifteenth century, the modern game of poker originated in the early nineteenth century in the gambling saloons of New Orleans. It has long been the most popular card game among Americans. It has recently reached unprecedented popularity due to a variety of factors, including television and Internet exposure. Poker is somewhat unique among gambling activ…
Insider Trading in Betting Markets
The focus of this chapter is the racing betting market, notably the gallops, harness, and greyhounds. A key issue is whether the presence of betting insiders at the track implies that their presence is easily measured. It is shown that this is a function of the microstructure of the particular betting market. In some markets, the impact of insider trading is readily measured, while in others, it has hitherto proven virtually impossible. The diffe…
The Kelly Criterion with Games of Chance
An important betting strategy in games of chance is the Kelly strategy, through which the expected logarithm of final wealth is maximized. In this chapter, the Kelly strategy and its associated fractional strategies are discussed. The advantages and disadvantages of such a strategy are described, in general, and in particular, with application to a variety of games: blackjack, horseracing, lotto, and anomalies in the index futures markets. The co…
The Elasticity of Casino Gambling
This chapter examines the price, cross, and income elasticity of demand for casino gambling. The focus is specifically on casino gambling, as opposed to other forms of gambling, such as lottery or pari-mutuel wagering. Nevertheless, in the case of price elasticity comparisons with other forms of gambling are made to provide a context for the reader. Similarly, in the case of income elasticity comparisons are made between casino revenue versus inc…
A Primer on the Mathematics of Gambling
A mathematical analysis of gambling can explain why over time , one player wins and another loses. In the context of commercial gaming the “player” who wins is typically the house?the operators of the casino, racetrack, card room, or lottery. Simply put, commercial gaming enterprises generate a profit due to the mathematics behind the games. As many experienced gamblers have learned—for better or worse—and some knowledgeable insiders have voiced,…
Behavioral Finance and Point Spread Wagering Markets
The objective of this chapter is to review and extend an emerging body of research that tests theories, models, and general predictions of human behavior—most of which are rooted in psychology—while using the point spread wagering market as the setting. The bridge between behavioral psychology and sports betting is provided by the growing field of behavioral finance, a relatively new subdiscipline of behavioral economics.
The National Lottery
The first National Lottery draw of the modern era took place on November 19, 1994. However, since the time of Queen Elizabeth I, running a state-sponsored lottery has been commonplace. Between 1566 and 1826, with a break between 1699 and 1710, state-sponsored lotteries were held in England either under a separate act of Parliament or by means of license from the sovereign. This chapter traces the development of the National Lottery and considers …
The Efficiency of Pelota Betting Markets
In pelota matches, which are games with two mutually exclusive and exhaustive outcomes, wagers on the winner are made between viewers through a middleman who receives 16 percent of the payout. This chapter presents an analysis of this betting market under three different concepts of market efficiency widely utilized in the literature. Attention is then turned to another concept of market efficiency with the preliminary analysis of a set of field …
The Football Pools
In principle, the term football pools could be applied to any pari-mutuel wagering concerning the outcomes, or any other aspects, of football (soccer) matches. However, it has long been used more specifically to refer to long-odds, high-prize gambling games where entitlement to a share of the jackpot is linked to football results. Long odds are inherent in the product and are achieved by requiring players to match their guesses or forecasts with …
How Does Implementation of a Smoking Ban Affect Gaming?
This chapter reviews the literature on gaming and the restriction of smoking and then examines data on the riverboat casino market in the Illinois portion of the St. Louis Metropolitan area. This market is then used as a case study to discuss the issues of a localized smoking ban where patrons have access to neighboring substitute establishments that are not subject to such restrictions.
Motivation in Betting Markets
Betting markets are diverse but share several distinguishing traits. Generally, they are open for short periods and have an endpoint that relates to an event whose occurrence (but not outcome) is known in advance. Due to substantial operating fees and taxes, betting is a less-than-zero-sum transaction, and there are limited opportunities to sell securities or to arbitrage positions. Betting markets, then, are very different from financial markets…
Betting on Simultaneous Events and Accumulator Gambles
As bettors become more sophisticated, there is an increasing focus on bankroll risk management or how much to bet on certain opportunities. Bettors often face situations where multiple games are played simultaneously. Thus, the problem of allocating capital across different games or events must be considered, much the same as an investor allocating capital to different stocks in a portfolio. In this chapter, the use of accumulator bets (parlays) …
The Taxation Of Gambling Machines
Over the past decade, U.K. gambling sector has experienced several regulatory shocks that have led to considerable debate and controversy within the industry and policy-making communities. Although there is a well-established literature on the economic impact of the growth of gambling facilities on local and regional economies in the United States and the United Kingdom, relatively little research has focused on optimal taxation of gambling machi…
The Economics of Racetrack-Casino (Racino) Gambling
The inclusion of casino-style gambling (henceforth gaming) at pari-mutuel racetracks, beginning in 1990, has changed the landscape of the pari-mutuel racing and wagering industry in the United States. To investigate the implications of racetrack–casino (henceforth racino) betting on the pari-mutuel racing and wagering industry, this chapter examines long-run trends in pari-mutuel horse race wagering and reports results of economic studies of the …
The Efficiency Of Lottery Markets
This chapter analyzes the degree to which lottery players demonstrate rational behavior and how they use available information to make decisions about participation and level of play. Overall, players of lotto games act as if they understand the rules of the game and appropriately use relevant information about the games. Exceptions to efficiency are found, but these inefficiencies cannot be easily exploited by bettors.
The Economics of Asian Casino Gaming and Gambling
This chapter examines the economics of Asian casino gambling and the factors responsible for the evolution and organization of the casino industries. In addition to the market fundamentals, the significance of the unique features of Asian culture and related institutional structure of gaming industry performance are addressed. Finally, controversial debates over the social benefits and costs of casino gaming in Asia are evaluated.
The Economics Of Online Sports Betting
This chapter provides an overview of the online sports betting industry from an economic and legal perspective. The dual focus is necessary, given that the overlapping, and sometimes conflicting, regulatory environment lends itself to a decidedly “law and economics” inquiry. Following this overview of the pre-Internet environment is a multifaceted treatment of the online sportsbook, explaining the decided shift in its economic characteristics and…
The Lure of the Pitcher
This study explores the impact of elite starting pitchers on the Major League Baseball betting market. Starting pitchers are the key defensive element of a baseball game, and their value is generally reflected in the market odds on baseball games. This study uses highly detailed and previously unavailable data to examine the role of elite starting pitchers on game betting volume, percentage bet on the favorite and the underdog, and percentage bet…
Exploiting Expert Analysis? Evidence from Event Studies in an Information-Rich Market Environment
This chapter evaluates the record of media forecasters in selecting winners, with returns judged against the benchmark of information efficiency as specified in the efficient-market hypothesis, updating in particular prior analyses of the well-established Pricewise tipping column in the industry newspaper the Racing Post with a new and bigger dataset. Most notably, the analysis seeks to establish whether or not the feature’s previously impressive…
Economics (29 works) · Gambling Behavior and Treatments (23 works) · Sports Analytics and Performance (22 works) · Computer Science (18 works) · Business (17 works) · Political science (12 works) · Advertising (11 works) · Financial economics (11 works) · Microeconomics (10 works) · Finance (8 works)