Olivier Blanchard
Biographic Data
| ID | 1104860 |
|---|---|
| NAME | Olivier Blanchard |
| GIVEN NAMES | Olivier |
| FAMILY NAME | Blanchard |
| SIGNATURE | BLANCHARD O |
| AFFILIATIONS | National Bureau of Economic Research |
| ORCID | 0000-0003-1308-3207 |
| VERIFIED | Yes |
| TOTAL WORKS | 46 |
| TOTAL CITATIONS | 396 |
| AUTHOR COUNT | 45 |
| EDITOR COUNT | 1 |
| FIRST PUBLICATION YEAR | 1964 |
| LATEST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2022 |
| H-INDEX | 6 |
Monetary non-neutrality and stabilisation policies 50 years after Lucas’s “expectations” paper: A roundtable discussion
Half a century has passed since Robert Lucas got his paper on expectations and the neutrality of money published in the Journal of Economic Theory. That article is widely considered as pathbreaking, starting a movement that changed the professional standards of doing macroeconomics. It arguably also affected the perception, if not the conduct of monetary policy and other stabilisation policies. This roundtable discussion collects comments from a …
The portfolio of economic policies needed to fight climate change
Combating Inequality: Rethinking Government's Role
Leading economists and policymakers consider what economic tools are most effective in reversing the rise in inequality. Economic inequality is the defining issue of our time. In the United States, the wealth share of the top 1% has risen from 25% in the late 1970s to around 40% today. The percentage of children earning more than their parents has fallen from 90% in the 1940s to around 50% today. In Combating Inequality, leading economists, many …
Crise et révolution dans la théorie et la politique économiques: Un débat
Comment réformer la discipline budgétaire européenne
Combating Inequality: Rethinking Government's Role
"Edited collection with contributions from notable economists on policy solutions to the problem of economic inequality in advanced economies"-- Leading economists and policymakers consider what economic tools are most effective in reversing the rise in inequality. Economic inequality is the defining issue of our time. In the United States, the wealth share of the top 1% has risen from 25% in the late 1970s to around 40% today. The percentage of …
Les dettes publiques actuelles sont-elles soutenables
Crisis and Revolution in Economic Theory and Policy: A Debate
The following is the transcript of a debate, entitled ‘Pensare un’alternativa’ (Thinking of an Alternative), between Olivier Blanchard, former Chief Economist of the International Monetary Fund and a leading exponent of mainstream macroeconomics, and Emiliano Brancaccio, author of the book Anti-Blanchard and advocate of ‘The Economists’ Warning’ against European deflationary policies. The debate examines, from two different theoretical perspectiv…
Coût budgétaire et social de la dette publique en période de faibles taux d'intérêt
Should We Reject the Natural Rate Hypothesis
Fifty years ago, Milton Friedman articulated the natural rate hypothesis. It was composed of two sub-hypotheses: First, the natural rate of unemployment is independent of monetary policy. Second, there is no long-run trade-off between the deviation of unemployment from the natural rate and inflation. Both propositions have been challenged. The paper reviews the arguments and the macro and micro evidence against each. It concludes that, in each ca…
L'économie peut être plus passionnante que ça
A Conceptual Framework for the Assessment of Cumulative Exposure to Air Pollution at a Fine Spatial Scale
Many epidemiological studies examining long-term health effects of exposure to air pollutants have characterized exposure by the outdoor air concentrations at sites that may be distant to subjects' residences at different points in time. The temporal and spatial mobility of subjects and the spatial scale of exposure assessment could thus lead to misclassification in the cumulative exposure estimation. This paper attempts to fill the gap regarding…
Growth Forecast Errors and Fiscal Multipliers
This paper investigates the relation between growth forecast errors and planned fiscal consolidation during the crisis. We find that, in advanced economies, stronger planned fiscal consolidation has been associated with lower growth than expected. The relation is particularly strong, both statistically and economically, early in the crisis. A natural interpretation is that fiscal multipliers were substantially higher than implicitly assumed by fo…
The Joint Design of Unemployment Insurance and Employment Protection: A First Pass
Unemployment insurance and employment protection are typically discussed and studied in isolation. In this paper, we argue that they are tightly linked, and we focus on their joint optimal design in a simple model, with risk-averse workers, risk-neutral firms, and random shocks to productivity. We show that, in the “first best,”unemployment insurance comes with employment protection—in the form of layoff taxes; indeed, optimality requires that la…
European unemployment: The evolution of facts and ideas
In the 1970s, European unemployment started increasing. It increased further in the 1980s, to reach a plateau in the 1990s. It is still high today, although the average unemployment rate hides a high degree of heterogeneity across countries. The focus of researchers and policy makers was initially on the role of shocks. As unemployment remained high, the focus has progressively shifted to institutions. This paper reviews the interaction of facts …
The Joint Design of Unemployment Insurance and Employment Protection: A First Pass
The Economic Future of Europe
After three years of near stagnation, the mood in Europe is definitely gloomy. Many doubt that the European model has a future. In this paper, I argue that things are not so bad, and there is room for optimism. Over the last thirty years, productivity growth has been much faster in Europe than in the United States. Productivity levels are roughly similar today in the European Union and in the United States. The main difference is that Europe has …
Macroeconomic Effects of Regulation and Deregulation in Goods and Labor Markets
Product and labor market deregulation reduce and redistribute rents, leading economic players to adjust to this new distribution. It typically comes with distribution and dynamic effects. To study these effects, we build a macroeconomic model on two central assumptions: monopolistic competition in the goods market, which determines the size of rents; and bargaining in the labor market, which determines the distribution of rents. Product market re…
Contours of Employment Protection Reform
An Empirical Characterization of the Dynamic Effects of Changes in Government Spending and Taxes on Output
This paper characterizes the dynamic effects of shocks in government spending and taxes on U. S. activity in the postwar period. It does so by using a mixed structural VAR/event study approach. Identification is achieved by using institutional information about the tax and transfer systems to identify the automatic response of taxes and spending to activity, and, by implication, to infer fiscal shocks. The results consistently show positive gover…
The Perverse Effects of Partial Labour Market Reform: Fixed‐Term Contracts in France
Journal Article The Perverse Effects of Partial Labour Market Reform: Fixed‐Term Contracts in France Get access Olivier Blanchard, Olivier Blanchard Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Scholar Augustin Landier Augustin Landier Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Scholar The Economic Journal, Volume 112, Issue 480, June 2002, Pages F214–F244, https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-0297.00047 Publishe…
Federalism with and without Political Centralization: China Versus Russia
In Honor of Andrei Shleifer: Winner of the John Bates Clark Medal
Andrei Shleifer is the 1999 recipient of the John Bates Clark Medal, an award presented by the American Economic Association to an outstanding economist under the age of 40. The Clark medal citation singles out his contributions to three fields: corporate finance (corporate governance, law and finance), the economics of financial markets (deviations from efficient markets), and the economics of transition. One could add a fourth area, an early bu…
The Role of Shocks and Institutions in the Rise of European Unemployment: The Aggregate Evidence
Two key facts about European unemployment must be explained: the rise in unemployment since the 1960s, and the heterogeneity of individual country experiences. While adverse shocks can potentially explain much of the rise in unemployment, there is insufficient heterogeneity in these shocks to explain cross-country differences. Alternatively, while explanations focusing on labour market institutions explain current heterogeneity well, many of thes…
Disorganization
Under central planning, many firms relied on a single supplier for critical inputs. Transition has led to decentralized bargaining between suppliers and buyers. Under incomplete contracts or asymmetric information, bargaining may inefficiently break down, and if chains of production link many specialized producers, output will decline sharply. Mechanisms that mitigate these problems in the West, such as reputation, can only play a limited role in…
The Role of Shocks and Institutions in the Rise of European Unemployment: The Aggregate Evidence
Two key facts about European unemployment must be explained: the rise in unemployment since the 1960s, and the heterogeneity of individual country experiences. While adverse shocks can potentially explain much of the rise in unemployment, there is insufficient heterogeneity in these shocks to explain cross-country differences. Alternatively, while explanations focusing on labour market institutions explain current heterogeneity well, many of thes…
The Perverse Effects of Partial Labour Market Reform: Fixed‐Term Contracts in France
Journal Article The Perverse Effects of Partial Labour Market Reform: Fixed‐Term Contracts in France Get access Olivier Blanchard, Olivier Blanchard Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Scholar Augustin Landier Augustin Landier Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Scholar The Economic Journal, Volume 112, Issue 480, June 2002, Pages F214–F244, https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-0297.00047 Publishe…
Hysteresis and the European Unemployment Problem
European unemployment has been steadily increasing for the last 15 years and is expected to remain very high for many years to come.In thi5 paper, we argue that this fact implies that shocks have much more persistent effects on unemployment than standard theories can possibly explain.We develop a theory which can explain such persistence, and which is based on the distinction between insiders and outsiders in wage bargaining.We argue that if wage…
Lectures on Macroeconomics
Debt, Deficits, and Finite Horizons
Many issues in macroeconomics, such as the level of the steady state interest rate, or the dynamic effects of government deficit finance, depend crucially on the horizon of economic agents. This paper develops a simple analytical model in which such issues can be examined and in which the horizon of agents is a parameter which can be chosen arbitrarily.The first three sections of the paper characterize the dynamics and steady state of the economy…
What We Know and Do Not Know About the Natural Rate of Unemployment
Over the past three decades, much research has attempted to identify the determinants of the natural rate of unemployment. The authors reach two main conclusions about this body of work. First, there has been considerable theoretical progress over the past thirty years. A framework emerged that can be used to think, for example, about the relation between technological progress and unemployment. Second, empirical knowledge lags behind. Economists…
Should We Reject the Natural Rate Hypothesis
Fifty years ago, Milton Friedman articulated the natural rate hypothesis. It was composed of two sub-hypotheses: First, the natural rate of unemployment is independent of monetary policy. Second, there is no long-run trade-off between the deviation of unemployment from the natural rate and inflation. Both propositions have been challenged. The paper reviews the arguments and the macro and micro evidence against each. It concludes that, in each ca…
Crisis and Revolution in Economic Theory and Policy: A Debate
The following is the transcript of a debate, entitled ‘Pensare un’alternativa’ (Thinking of an Alternative), between Olivier Blanchard, former Chief Economist of the International Monetary Fund and a leading exponent of mainstream macroeconomics, and Emiliano Brancaccio, author of the book Anti-Blanchard and advocate of ‘The Economists’ Warning’ against European deflationary policies. The debate examines, from two different theoretical perspectiv…
Wage Indexing Rules and the Behavior of the Economy
Explaining economic fluctuations by the existence of imperfect wage rules begs the question of why such rules are chosen in labor contracts. The form of wage rules is not exogenous but determined by cost and efficiency considerations. Fully contingent rules preserve efficiency but are costly to write and enforce. Noncontingent rules may lead to large inefficiencies. Actual rules, which index the wage only to the price level, may be the optimal co…
The Production and Inventory Behavior of the American Automobile Industry
Understanding inventory movements is central to an understanding of business cycles. This paper presents an empirical study of the behavior of inventories in the automobile industry. It finds that inventory behavior is well explained by the assumption of intertemporal optimization with rational expectations. The underlying cost structure appears to have substantial costs of changing production as well as substantial costs of being away from targe…
International Monetary Fund
The Annual Report of the Executive Directors of the International Monetary Fund for the fiscal year ended April 30, 1954, was transmitted to the Chairman of the Board of Governors on July 1, 1954. During the period under review, the report noted, important steps toward currency convertibility had been taken in several countries, notably Belgium, Luxembourg, Germany, the Netherlands, and United Kingdom; restrictions on dollar imports had been ligh…
Wage Indexing Rules and the Behavior of the Economy
Explaining economic fluctuations by the existence of imperfect wage rules begs the question of why such rules are chosen in labor contracts. The form of wage rules is not exogenous but determined by cost and efficiency considerations. Fully contingent rules preserve efficiency but are costly to write and enforce. Noncontingent rules may lead to large inefficiencies. Actual rules, which index the wage only to the price level, may be the optimal co…
The Solution of Linear Difference Models under Rational Expectations
IN HIS SURVEY ON RATIONAL EXPECTATIONS, R. Shiller indicates that the difficulty of obtaining explicit solutions for linear difference models under rational expectations may have hindered their use [14, p. 27]. The present paper attempts to remedy that problem by giving the explicit solution for an important subclass of the model Shiller refers to as the general linear difference model. Section 1 presents the form of the model for which the solut…
The Production and Inventory Behavior of the American Automobile Industry
Understanding inventory movements is central to an understanding of business cycles. This paper presents an empirical study of the behavior of inventories in the automobile industry. It finds that inventory behavior is well explained by the assumption of intertemporal optimization with rational expectations. The underlying cost structure appears to have substantial costs of changing production as well as substantial costs of being away from targe…
Debt, Deficits, and Finite Horizons
Many issues in macroeconomics, such as the level of the steady state interest rate, or the dynamic effects of government deficit finance, depend crucially on the horizon of economic agents. This paper develops a simple analytical model in which such issues can be examined and in which the horizon of agents is a parameter which can be chosen arbitrarily.The first three sections of the paper characterize the dynamics and steady state of the economy…
Hysteresis and the European Unemployment Problem
European unemployment has been steadily increasing for the last fifteen years and is expected to remain very high for many years to come. In this paper, we argue that this fact implies that shocks have much more persistent effects on unemployment than standard theories can possibly explain. We develop a theory that can explain such persistence, and that is based on the distinction between insiders and outsiders in wage bargaining. We argue that i…
Restoring Europe's Prosperity: Macroeconomic Papers from the Centre for European Policy Studies
Journal Article Restoring Europe's Prosperity: Macroeconomic Papers from the Centre for European Policy Studies Get access Restoring Europe's Prosperity: Maxroeconomic Papers from the Centre for European Policy Studies. Edited by OLIVIER BLANCHARD, RUDIGER DORNBUSCH and RICHARD LAYARD. (Cambridge, Massachusetts & London: The MIT Press, 1986. Pp. xiii + 179. £15.95 hardback.) M. J. Artis M. J. Artis University of Manchester Search for other works …
Hysteresis and the European Unemployment Problem
European unemployment has been steadily increasing for the last 15 years and is expected to remain very high for many years to come.In thi5 paper, we argue that this fact implies that shocks have much more persistent effects on unemployment than standard theories can possibly explain.We develop a theory which can explain such persistence, and which is based on the distinction between insiders and outsiders in wage bargaining.We argue that if wage…
Reaganomics
Hysteresis in unemployment
[Vector Autoregressions and Reality]: Comment
Lectures on Macroeconomics
Convergence Across States and Regions
In this paper we examine the growth and dispersion of personal income in U.S. states and regions since 1880 and relate the patterns for individual states to the behavior of regions.Then we analyze the interplay between net migration and economic growth.We study the evolution of gross state product since 1963 and relate the behavior of aggregate product to productivity in eight major sectors.The overall evidence weighs heavily in favor of converge…
Regional Evolutions
macroeconomics, regional evolutions, unemployment, Massachusetts, boom, slump, employment, wages, growth
Reform in Eastern Europe
On the Speed of Transition Central Europe
Transition in Central Europe is four years old. State firms which dominated the economy are struggling with market forces. A new private sector quickly emerged and has taken hold. Unemployment, which did not exist, is high and still increasing. Will this process of transition accelerate, or slow down? Will unemployment keep increasing? Can things go wrong and how? Our paper represents a first pass at answering those questions. The basic structure…
East-West Migration: The Alternatives
Transition in Poland
Journal Article Transition in Poland Get access Olivier Jean Blanchard Olivier Jean Blanchard Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Scholar The Economic Journal, Volume 104, Issue 426, 1 September 1994, Pages 1169–1177, https://doi.org/10.2307/2235074 Published: 01 September 1994
East-West Migration: The Alternatives
The Transition in Eastern Europe: Volume I: Country Studies
Journal Article The Transition in Eastern Europe: Volume I: Country Studies. Get access The Transition in Eastern Europe: Volume 1: Country Studies. Edited by (OLIVIER JEAN) BLANCHARD, (Kenneth A.) Froot and (JEFFREY D.) Sachs. (Chicago and London: University of Chicago Press, 1994. Pp. ix + 275. £31.95 hardback, US $45.95 hardback. ISBN 0 226 05660 0.)The Transition in Eastern Europe: Volume 2: Restructuring. Edited by (OLIVIER JEAN) BLANCHARD, …
Disorganization
Under central planning, many firms relied on a single supplier for critical inputs. Transition has led to decentralized bargaining between suppliers and buyers. Under incomplete contracts or asymmetric information, bargaining may inefficiently break down, and if chains of production link many specialized producers, output will decline sharply. Mechanisms that mitigate these problems in the West, such as reputation, can only play a limited role in…
What We Know and Do Not Know About the Natural Rate of Unemployment
Over the past three decades, much research has attempted to identify the determinants of the natural rate of unemployment. The authors reach two main conclusions about this body of work. First, there has been considerable theoretical progress over the past thirty years. A framework emerged that can be used to think, for example, about the relation between technological progress and unemployment. Second, empirical knowledge lags behind. Economists…
The Role of Shocks and Institutions in the Rise of European Unemployment: The Aggregate Evidence
Two key facts about European unemployment must be explained: the rise in unemployment since the 1960s, and the heterogeneity of individual country experiences. While adverse shocks can potentially explain much of the rise in unemployment, there is insufficient heterogeneity in these shocks to explain cross-country differences. Alternatively, while explanations focusing on labour market institutions explain current heterogeneity well, many of thes…
Federalism with and without Political Centralization: China Versus Russia
In Honor of Andrei Shleifer: Winner of the John Bates Clark Medal
Andrei Shleifer is the 1999 recipient of the John Bates Clark Medal, an award presented by the American Economic Association to an outstanding economist under the age of 40. The Clark medal citation singles out his contributions to three fields: corporate finance (corporate governance, law and finance), the economics of financial markets (deviations from efficient markets), and the economics of transition. One could add a fourth area, an early bu…
Economics (34 works) · Political science (18 works) · Economic Theory and Policy (12 works) · Macroeconomics (12 works) · Unemployment (12 works) · Labour economics (9 works) · Geography (8 works) · Labor market dynamics and wage inequality (8 works) · Keynesian economics (7 works) · Market economy (7 works)