Paul D Senese
Biographic Data
| ID | 1110867 |
|---|---|
| NAME | Paul D Senese |
| GIVEN NAMES | Paul D |
| FAMILY NAME | Senese |
| SIGNATURE | SENESE P D |
| AFFILIATIONS | University at Buffalo, State University of New York |
| VERIFIED | No |
| TOTAL WORKS | 12 |
| TOTAL CITATIONS | 369 |
| AUTHOR COUNT | 12 |
| EDITOR COUNT | 0 |
| FIRST PUBLICATION YEAR | 1996 |
| LATEST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2008 |
| H-INDEX | 9 |
The Steps to War
The question of what causes war has concerned statesmen since the time of Thucydides. The Steps to War utilizes new data on militarized interstate disputes from 1816 to 2001 to identify the factors that increase the probability that a crisis will escalate to war. In this book, Paul Senese and John Vasquez test one of the major behavioral explanations of war--the steps to war--by identifying the various factors that put two states at risk for war.…
Chinese Acquisition of the Spratly Archipelago and Its Implications for the Future
In this study, I first examine the place of the Spratly Islands dispute at the heart of interstate relations between China and its regional neighbors around the South China Sea. In doing so, I trace the varied historical claims and periodic disputes over the archipelago, along with the current state of affairs, which is increasingly dominated by the need for more and cheaper sources of oil and natural gas. This background lays the groundwork for …
Territory, Contiguity, and International Conflict
Beginning with two prominent explanations of international conflict—one based on contiguity and the other on territory—I develop a new joint account that provides two important advancements over the prior explanations. I then test the expectations of this joint account on dispute and war onset for all dyad years from 1919 to 1995. I find strong support for its predictions at the dispute stage and partial support at the war stage, including marked…
Territory, Contiguity, and International Conflict
Beginning with two prominent explanations of international conflict—one based on contiguity and the other on territory—I develop a new joint account that provides two important advancements over the prior explanations. I then test the expectations of this joint account on dispute and war onset for all dyad years from 1919 to 1995. I find strong support for its predictions at the dispute stage and partial support at the war stage, including marked…
Assessing the Steps to War
This analysis outlines and tests the steps-to-war explanation of international conflict. At the core of this explanation is the expectation that territorial disputes are a key source of war and that as states that have these disputes make politically relevant alliances, have recurring disputes and build up their military forces against each other, they will experience ever-increasing probabilities of war. The absence of these risk factors is expe…
Sowing the Seeds of Conflict
We apply formal models of deterrence developed by Zagare and Kilgour (2000) to examine the impact of dispute settlements on future discord. Our theory of recurrent conflict, based primarily on how levels of satisfaction lead to different types of deterrence, allows us to formulate explicit expectations for the relative stability of militarized conflict settlements. We conceptualize peace periods following dispute settlements as situations of mutu…
A Unified Explanation of Territorial Conflict
This article develops a new unified territorial explanation of conflict that accounts for the possibility of certain factors affecting the rise of a militarized dispute, as well as the probability that a dispute will escalate to war. In the past, research linking territorial disputes to a relatively high probability of war outbreak has been criticized for underestimating the potential problem of sampling bias in the militarized interstate dispute…
Democracy, Disputes, and Negotiated Settlements
The argument that democracies are less belligerent toward one another because of their experience with mediation, negotiation, and compromise at the domestic level suggests that negotiated dispute settlements are more likely between relatively democratic states than other conflicting pairs. Militarized Interstate Dispute data and Polity IIId and Freedom House ratings of democracy are used to examine the propensities of disputants to resolve their…
Democracy and Maturity
A good deal of recent research has focused on the possible dangers associated with young democracies that are trying to weave their way through modern interstate relations for the first time. Democratic transitions, and their immediate aftermath, have been isolated as periods plagued by all sorts of potential conflict. Further, some studies implicitly suggest that the maturity of the regime may matter at least as much as the type of regime. This …
Between Dispute and War
The "democratic peace" postulate has received much theoretical and empirical attention recently, with the bulk of the evidence coming down in support of its expectations: that democratic pairs of states are unlikely to get involved in militarized disputes (compared with other regime pairs), and more likely to avoid escalation to war when they do occur. This paper does not challenge these findings but examines escalation behavior of democratic dis…
Costs and Demands
This research develops the concept of an international system cost as a necessary complement to the domestic cost component generated by Bueno de Mesquita and Lalman in War and Reason, published in 1992. The addition of such a cost to the decision calculus of leaders can persuade them to favor the status quo over the imposition of a likely attainable demand. Evidence is found supporting the significant constraining power of the international stat…
Geographical Proximity and Issue Salience
The role of contiguity and territorial issues in conditioning states toward increasingly intense conflict has been a persistent theme in the literature of international relations. This paper investigates one particular aspect of the escalation puzzle in regard to these two dimensions, namely, their impact on the likelihood that militarized disputes will escalate in hostility and severity once the initial threshold of conflict has been broken. The…
A Unified Explanation of Territorial Conflict
This article develops a new unified territorial explanation of conflict that accounts for the possibility of certain factors affecting the rise of a militarized dispute, as well as the probability that a dispute will escalate to war. In the past, research linking territorial disputes to a relatively high probability of war outbreak has been criticized for underestimating the potential problem of sampling bias in the militarized interstate dispute…
Territory, Contiguity, and International Conflict
Beginning with two prominent explanations of international conflict—one based on contiguity and the other on territory—I develop a new joint account that provides two important advancements over the prior explanations. I then test the expectations of this joint account on dispute and war onset for all dyad years from 1919 to 1995. I find strong support for its predictions at the dispute stage and partial support at the war stage, including marked…
Between Dispute and War
The "democratic peace" postulate has received much theoretical and empirical attention recently, with the bulk of the evidence coming down in support of its expectations: that democratic pairs of states are unlikely to get involved in militarized disputes (compared with other regime pairs), and more likely to avoid escalation to war when they do occur. This paper does not challenge these findings but examines escalation behavior of democratic dis…
Geographical Proximity and Issue Salience
The role of contiguity and territorial issues in conditioning states toward increasingly intense conflict has been a persistent theme in the literature of international relations. This paper investigates one particular aspect of the escalation puzzle in regard to these two dimensions, namely, their impact on the likelihood that militarized disputes will escalate in hostility and severity once the initial threshold of conflict has been broken. The…
Democracy, Disputes, and Negotiated Settlements
The argument that democracies are less belligerent toward one another because of their experience with mediation, negotiation, and compromise at the domestic level suggests that negotiated dispute settlements are more likely between relatively democratic states than other conflicting pairs. Militarized Interstate Dispute data and Polity IIId and Freedom House ratings of democracy are used to examine the propensities of disputants to resolve their…
Sowing the Seeds of Conflict
We apply formal models of deterrence developed by Zagare and Kilgour (2000) to examine the impact of dispute settlements on future discord. Our theory of recurrent conflict, based primarily on how levels of satisfaction lead to different types of deterrence, allows us to formulate explicit expectations for the relative stability of militarized conflict settlements. We conceptualize peace periods following dispute settlements as situations of mutu…
Assessing the Steps to War
This analysis outlines and tests the steps-to-war explanation of international conflict. At the core of this explanation is the expectation that territorial disputes are a key source of war and that as states that have these disputes make politically relevant alliances, have recurring disputes and build up their military forces against each other, they will experience ever-increasing probabilities of war. The absence of these risk factors is expe…
Costs and Demands
This research develops the concept of an international system cost as a necessary complement to the domestic cost component generated by Bueno de Mesquita and Lalman in War and Reason, published in 1992. The addition of such a cost to the decision calculus of leaders can persuade them to favor the status quo over the imposition of a likely attainable demand. Evidence is found supporting the significant constraining power of the international stat…
Democracy and Maturity
A good deal of recent research has focused on the possible dangers associated with young democracies that are trying to weave their way through modern interstate relations for the first time. Democratic transitions, and their immediate aftermath, have been isolated as periods plagued by all sorts of potential conflict. Further, some studies implicitly suggest that the maturity of the regime may matter at least as much as the type of regime. This …
Chinese Acquisition of the Spratly Archipelago and Its Implications for the Future
In this study, I first examine the place of the Spratly Islands dispute at the heart of interstate relations between China and its regional neighbors around the South China Sea. In doing so, I trace the varied historical claims and periodic disputes over the archipelago, along with the current state of affairs, which is increasingly dominated by the need for more and cheaper sources of oil and natural gas. This background lays the groundwork for …
Geographical Proximity and Issue Salience
The role of contiguity and territorial issues in conditioning states toward increasingly intense conflict has been a persistent theme in the literature of international relations. This paper investigates one particular aspect of the escalation puzzle in regard to these two dimensions, namely, their impact on the likelihood that militarized disputes will escalate in hostility and severity once the initial threshold of conflict has been broken. The…
Between Dispute and War
The "democratic peace" postulate has received much theoretical and empirical attention recently, with the bulk of the evidence coming down in support of its expectations: that democratic pairs of states are unlikely to get involved in militarized disputes (compared with other regime pairs), and more likely to avoid escalation to war when they do occur. This paper does not challenge these findings but examines escalation behavior of democratic dis…
Costs and Demands
This research develops the concept of an international system cost as a necessary complement to the domestic cost component generated by Bueno de Mesquita and Lalman in War and Reason, published in 1992. The addition of such a cost to the decision calculus of leaders can persuade them to favor the status quo over the imposition of a likely attainable demand. Evidence is found supporting the significant constraining power of the international stat…
Democracy and Maturity
A good deal of recent research has focused on the possible dangers associated with young democracies that are trying to weave their way through modern interstate relations for the first time. Democratic transitions, and their immediate aftermath, have been isolated as periods plagued by all sorts of potential conflict. Further, some studies implicitly suggest that the maturity of the regime may matter at least as much as the type of regime. This …
Democracy, Disputes, and Negotiated Settlements
The argument that democracies are less belligerent toward one another because of their experience with mediation, negotiation, and compromise at the domestic level suggests that negotiated dispute settlements are more likely between relatively democratic states than other conflicting pairs. Militarized Interstate Dispute data and Polity IIId and Freedom House ratings of democracy are used to examine the propensities of disputants to resolve their…
Sowing the Seeds of Conflict
We apply formal models of deterrence developed by Zagare and Kilgour (2000) to examine the impact of dispute settlements on future discord. Our theory of recurrent conflict, based primarily on how levels of satisfaction lead to different types of deterrence, allows us to formulate explicit expectations for the relative stability of militarized conflict settlements. We conceptualize peace periods following dispute settlements as situations of mutu…
A Unified Explanation of Territorial Conflict
This article develops a new unified territorial explanation of conflict that accounts for the possibility of certain factors affecting the rise of a militarized dispute, as well as the probability that a dispute will escalate to war. In the past, research linking territorial disputes to a relatively high probability of war outbreak has been criticized for underestimating the potential problem of sampling bias in the militarized interstate dispute…
Chinese Acquisition of the Spratly Archipelago and Its Implications for the Future
In this study, I first examine the place of the Spratly Islands dispute at the heart of interstate relations between China and its regional neighbors around the South China Sea. In doing so, I trace the varied historical claims and periodic disputes over the archipelago, along with the current state of affairs, which is increasingly dominated by the need for more and cheaper sources of oil and natural gas. This background lays the groundwork for …
Territory, Contiguity, and International Conflict
Beginning with two prominent explanations of international conflict—one based on contiguity and the other on territory—I develop a new joint account that provides two important advancements over the prior explanations. I then test the expectations of this joint account on dispute and war onset for all dyad years from 1919 to 1995. I find strong support for its predictions at the dispute stage and partial support at the war stage, including marked…
Territory, Contiguity, and International Conflict
Beginning with two prominent explanations of international conflict—one based on contiguity and the other on territory—I develop a new joint account that provides two important advancements over the prior explanations. I then test the expectations of this joint account on dispute and war onset for all dyad years from 1919 to 1995. I find strong support for its predictions at the dispute stage and partial support at the war stage, including marked…
Assessing the Steps to War
This analysis outlines and tests the steps-to-war explanation of international conflict. At the core of this explanation is the expectation that territorial disputes are a key source of war and that as states that have these disputes make politically relevant alliances, have recurring disputes and build up their military forces against each other, they will experience ever-increasing probabilities of war. The absence of these risk factors is expe…
The Steps to War
The question of what causes war has concerned statesmen since the time of Thucydides. The Steps to War utilizes new data on militarized interstate disputes from 1816 to 2001 to identify the factors that increase the probability that a crisis will escalate to war. In this book, Paul Senese and John Vasquez test one of the major behavioral explanations of war--the steps to war--by identifying the various factors that put two states at risk for war.…
Political science (12 works) · International Relations and Foreign Policy (10 works) · Law (10 works) · Politics (10 works) · Law (9 works) · Political Conflict and Governance (8 works) · Economics (7 works) · International Development and Aid (7 works) · Psychology (7 works) · Social Psychology (7 works)