Jonathan J Forster
Biographic Data
| ID | 113003 |
|---|---|
| NAME | Jonathan J Forster |
| GIVEN NAMES | Jonathan J |
| FAMILY NAME | Forster |
| SIGNATURE | FORSTER J J |
| AFFILIATIONS | University of Southampton |
| ORCID | 0000-0002-7867-3411 |
| VERIFIED | Yes |
| TOTAL WORKS | 5 |
| TOTAL CITATIONS | 16 |
| WORKS AS AUTHOR | 5 |
| WORKS AS EDITOR | 0 |
| FIRST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2006 |
| LATEST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2022 |
| H-INDEX | 2 |
Toward an Early Warning System for Monitoring Asylum-Related Migration Flows in Europe
Asylum-related migration is highly complex, uncertain, and volatile, which precludes using standard model-based predictions to inform policy and operational decisions. At the same time, asylum's potentially high societal impacts on receiving countries and the resource implications of asylum processes call for more proactive approaches for assessing current and future migration flows. In this article, we propose an alternative approach to asylum m…
Investigating the application of generalized additive models to discrete-time event history analysis for birth events
Discrete-time event history analysis (EHA) is the standard approach taken when modelling fertility histories collected in surveys, where the date of birth is often recorded imprecisely. This method is commonly used to investigate the factors associated wit
Bayesian Population Forecasting
In this article, we develop a fully integrated and dynamic Bayesian approach to forecast populations by age and sex. The approach embeds the Lee-Carter type models for forecasting the age patterns, with associated measures of uncertainty, of fertility, mortality, immigration, and emigration within a cohort projection model. The methodology may be adapted to handle different data types and sources of information. To illustrate, we analyze time ser…
Integrating uncertainty in time series population forecasts
Population forecasts are widely used for public policy purposes. Methods to quantify the uncertainty in forecasts tend to ignore model uncertainty and to be based on a single model
Markov chain Monte Carlo exact inference for social networks
Bayesian Population Forecasting
In this article, we develop a fully integrated and dynamic Bayesian approach to forecast populations by age and sex. The approach embeds the Lee-Carter type models for forecasting the age patterns, with associated measures of uncertainty, of fertility, mortality, immigration, and emigration within a cohort projection model. The methodology may be adapted to handle different data types and sources of information. To illustrate, we analyze time ser…
Integrating uncertainty in time series population forecasts
Population forecasts are widely used for public policy purposes. Methods to quantify the uncertainty in forecasts tend to ignore model uncertainty and to be based on a single model
Toward an Early Warning System for Monitoring Asylum-Related Migration Flows in Europe
Asylum-related migration is highly complex, uncertain, and volatile, which precludes using standard model-based predictions to inform policy and operational decisions. At the same time, asylum's potentially high societal impacts on receiving countries and the resource implications of asylum processes call for more proactive approaches for assessing current and future migration flows. In this article, we propose an alternative approach to asylum m…
Markov chain Monte Carlo exact inference for social networks
Integrating uncertainty in time series population forecasts
Population forecasts are widely used for public policy purposes. Methods to quantify the uncertainty in forecasts tend to ignore model uncertainty and to be based on a single model
Bayesian Population Forecasting
In this article, we develop a fully integrated and dynamic Bayesian approach to forecast populations by age and sex. The approach embeds the Lee-Carter type models for forecasting the age patterns, with associated measures of uncertainty, of fertility, mortality, immigration, and emigration within a cohort projection model. The methodology may be adapted to handle different data types and sources of information. To illustrate, we analyze time ser…
Toward an Early Warning System for Monitoring Asylum-Related Migration Flows in Europe
Asylum-related migration is highly complex, uncertain, and volatile, which precludes using standard model-based predictions to inform policy and operational decisions. At the same time, asylum's potentially high societal impacts on receiving countries and the resource implications of asylum processes call for more proactive approaches for assessing current and future migration flows. In this article, we propose an alternative approach to asylum m…
Investigating the application of generalized additive models to discrete-time event history analysis for birth events
Discrete-time event history analysis (EHA) is the standard approach taken when modelling fertility histories collected in surveys, where the date of birth is often recorded imprecisely. This method is commonly used to investigate the factors associated wit
Computer Science (5 works) · Mathematics (4 works) · Statistics (4 works) · Artificial Intelligence (3 works) · Demography (3 works) · Econometrics (3 works) · Economics (3 works) · Population (3 works) · Algorithm (2 works) · Fertility (2 works)