Kai M Thaler
Biographic Data
| ID | 1148857 |
|---|---|
| NAME | Kai M Thaler |
| GIVEN NAMES | Kai M |
| FAMILY NAME | Thaler |
| SIGNATURE | THALER K M |
| AFFILIATIONS | University of California, Santa Barbara |
| ORCID | 0000-0003-0836-8689 |
| VERIFIED | Yes |
| TOTAL WORKS | 24 |
| TOTAL CITATIONS | 149 |
| AUTHOR COUNT | 24 |
| EDITOR COUNT | 0 |
| FIRST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2012 |
| LATEST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2026 |
| H-INDEX | 6 |
Transit migration entrepreneurship: Explaining Nicaragua’s state-controlled, profit-seeking transit migration industry
How and why do governments develop profit-seeking migration industries around transit migration? Restrictive international migration policies, such as border externalization and migrant rentierism, compel migrants to transit through multiple countries to reach their final destinations, creating new dilemmas and opportunities for transit country governments. Between 2021 and 2025, thousands of migrants from across the globe arrived in Nicaragua vi…
Crime, Crackdowns, and Democracy in Ecuador
Ecuador has shifted from relative peace to extreme violence, with homicide rates soaring as state capacity and security institutions were dismantled after Rafael Correa's presidency. Daniel Noboa, elected in 2023 and reelected in 2025, has responded with a militarized mano dura strategy, invoking internal armed conflict, frequent states of emergency, and expanded military roles. These measures have not reduced violence but have weakened judicial …
Stumbling out of the Gates: Security Strategy and Military Weakness after Revolutionary Victory
From Insurgent to Incumbent: Ideology, Rebel Governance, and Statebuilding after Rebel Victory in Civil Wars
Why do some victorious rebels invest in statebuilding and public goods, while others prioritize private enrichment? I theorize that post-victory governance is rooted in rebels’ pre-victory ideologies, distinguishing between rebels’ ideologies on two dimensions: how much they aim to transform society (programmatic or opportunistic) and the proportion of the population they wish to benefit (inclusive or exclusive). Programmatic transformation and d…
Levels of Analysis and Variation in Civil War Violence and Restraint: Ideology and Contestation in Nicaragua
How can we analyze violence against civilians in civil wars over time and with attention both to local context and international comparability? I argue that we should integrate theories across levels of analysis, applying this to testing existing theories of civil war violence and state repression in the case of the Frente Sandinista de Liberación Nacional (FSLN) in Nicaragua. Using interviews, archival evidence, and human rights reports, I argue…
Civil wars as critical junctures: Conceptual grounding and empirical potential
Civil wars are not only destructive: they can also generate new, long-lasting social, political, and economic structures and processes. To account for this productive potential and analyse post-conflict outcomes, I argue that we should analyse civil wars as critical junctures. Civil wars can relax structural constraints, opening opportunities for wartime processes to generate changes or to reinforce, rather than transform, the status quo. Changes…
From snapshots to panoramas: Navigating Power, Space, and Time in the Study of Armed Groups
The complex nature of civil conflict makes it inherently difficult to study, which is exacerbated by the challenges of conducting field research in volatile conflict zones. How do these challenges affect the data gathered and inferences drawn about armed groups? This article examines the epistemological, practical, and ethical issues of researching armed organisations across varying power relations, space, and time. We highlight the divergent per…
Statebuilding and indigenous rights implementation: Political incentives, social movement pressure, and autonomy policy in Central America
What explains when states strengthen, maintain, or erode political-territorial Indigenous autonomy regimes? Indigenous activists around the world have fought for the right to govern their own lands and communities and have sometimes won major legal concessions from national governments. Yet initial breakthroughs often give way to lackluster state implementation or even erosion of Indigenous autonomy rights. We examine how statebuilding incentives…
Framing Police Violence: Repression, Reform, and the Power of History in Chile
State violence against protests often backfires, spurring greater mobilization and demands for police reform. Yet major reforms rarely materialize. How can activists frame contentious events to build support for their policy goals? We examine whether historical frames that draw parallels between past and present episodes of state violence make people more likely to support police reforms. We test our theory with a survey experiment in Chile 15 mo…
Nicaragua: Doubling Down on Dictatorship
After Nicaragua's fraudulent 2016 elections, President Daniel Ortega and Vice-President and First Lady Rosario Murillo appeared firmly in control, buoyed by economic growth and elite alliances. When protests unexpectedly erupted in 2018, Ortega and Murillo chose deepening repression, using police, paramilitaries, and the judiciary to crush dissent and extinguish political freedoms. Nicaragua's 2021 elections took place with all opposition contend…
Civil Resistance in the Shadow of the Revolution: Historical Framing in Nicaragua's Sudden Uprising
Are long-standing, widespread grievances a necessary condition for civil resistance campaigns? We argue historical framing can enable sudden mass uprisings even where long-standing anti-regime grievances are absent. Protest cascades can develop to challenge relatively stable, popular governments through four interdependent historical framing mechanisms. First, protesters and bystanders may draw analogies to historical contentious episodes. Second…
Rebel Mobilization through Pandering: Insincere Leaders, Framing, and Exploitation of Popular Grievances
In civil wars, unpopular and violent rebel organizations sometimes gain support from politically motivated constituencies who should, by outside appearances, logically oppose such groups. I explain this through a logic in which self-interested, insincere rebel leaders pander to aggrieved civilian populations to mobilize them, presenting the rebel organization as empathizing with and offering solutions to popular grievances. Leaders exploit an inf…
Military integration and intelligence capacity: Informational effects of incorporating former rebels
Military integration seeks to improve counterinsurgency and peacebuilding outcomes by incorporating former rebels into preexisting or new state security forces during or after civil wars. While peacebuilders continue to promote military integration, there is mixed evidence about its effectiveness and the mechanisms through which it affects counterinsurgency and peace duration. One underexplored mechanism is the effect of military integration on i…
Delegation, Sponsorship, and Autonomy: An Integrated Framework for Understanding Armed Group–State Relationships
What types of relationships do armed groups have with states? How do different levels of ties and power relations affect both armed group and government behavior? This article develops a spectrum across which armed group–state relationships can move, focusing on three key types of relationships—delegation, sponsorship, and autonomy. An armed group–state relationship may be classified depending on the degree to which the armed group receives mater…
Gambling with Violence: State Outsourcing of War in Pakistan and India
Reflexivity and Temporality in Researching Violent Settings: Problems with the Replicability and Transparency Regime
Researchers studying conflict, violence, and human rights in dangerous settings across the globe face a complex set of ethical, personal, and professional dilemmas. Especially in more positivist fields and professions, there is pressure to conduct and present research as 'objective'. Yet the reality of field research in violent and conflict-affected settings is much messier than ideals in methodology textbooks or the polished presentation of fiel…
Political Leadership in Africa: Leaders and Development South of the Sahara by Giovanni Carbone and Alessandro Pellegata
Dirty Hands and Vicious Deeds: The US Government’s Complicity in Crimes against Humanity and Genocide
Dynamique et diversité des armées africaines: État des connaissances
Dans son grand récit historique sur les armées africaines, Edgerton (2004) affirme que les armées du continent sont passées de l’honneur à l’infamie. D’autres conceptions populaires qualifient les armées africaines de « non professionnelles », « non pertinentes » et « dangereuses » (Howe, 2005). Est-ce le cas ? Et si oui, pourquoi ? Aujourd’hui, près de soixante ans après les indépendances, que savons-nous de la nature des armées africaines, de l…
Has Liberia Turned a Corner
While Liberia's postconflict stability is impressive, its institutions are weak, and its democratic consolidation is incomplete and reversible. Analyzing Liberia's 2005, 2011, and 2017 elections reveals three trends. First, there has been an ongoing establishment of the norm that power should be contested institutionally, rather than by nonconstitutional means. Second, each election has seen allegations of electoral fraud by losing candidates, ex…
Nicaragua: A Return to Caudillismo
Nicaragua's 2016 elections saw President Daniel Ortega win a third consecutive term, and his wife, Rosario Murillo, become Vice President, in the face of an opposition abstention campaign. Since winning the presidency in 2007, Ortega has consolidated control over Nicaragua's institutions and economy while rejecting his revolutionary roots, stifling opposition parties and civil society, and enriching his family and associates. Ortega's move from e…
Mixed Methods Research in the Study of Political and Social Violence and Conflict
The study of political and social violence and conflict has expanded in recent decades, concurrent with a rise in the use of mixed methods research (MMR) throughout the social sciences. This article examines how methods are best integrated in studies of violence and conflict, critically reviewing examples from previous prominent works and suggesting directions for future research. I explore the benefits of MMR for understanding structures, agency…
Foreshadowing Future Slaughter: From the Indonesian Killings of 1965–1966 to the 1974–1999 Genocide in East Timor
The failure of the international community to act on the legal and moral imperative to stop, punish, and prevent genocide and other mass killings has led to the establishment of genocidal regimes that institutionalize genocide as a tactic of repression and power consolidation. One such repeat offender regime was the New Order government of Indonesia, which committed mass killings of known and alleged communists throughout Indonesia in 1965–1966 a…
Ideology and Violence in Civil Wars: Theory and Evidence from Mozambique and Angola
Theories that seek to explain patterns of violence in civil wars frequently pass over the issue of ideology. This paper argues that ideology may shape the use of selective versus indiscriminate violence by an armed group. The role of ideology is examined in the cases of Frelimo in Mozambique and the MPLA in Angola in their countries' wars of independence and civil wars. Using archival and newspaper data, I find that the Marxist–Leninist ideology …
Ideology and Violence in Civil Wars: Theory and Evidence from Mozambique and Angola
Theories that seek to explain patterns of violence in civil wars frequently pass over the issue of ideology. This paper argues that ideology may shape the use of selective versus indiscriminate violence by an armed group. The role of ideology is examined in the cases of Frelimo in Mozambique and the MPLA in Angola in their countries' wars of independence and civil wars. Using archival and newspaper data, I find that the Marxist–Leninist ideology …
Nicaragua: A Return to Caudillismo
Nicaragua's 2016 elections saw President Daniel Ortega win a third consecutive term, and his wife, Rosario Murillo, become Vice President, in the face of an opposition abstention campaign. Since winning the presidency in 2007, Ortega has consolidated control over Nicaragua's institutions and economy while rejecting his revolutionary roots, stifling opposition parties and civil society, and enriching his family and associates. Ortega's move from e…
Reflexivity and Temporality in Researching Violent Settings: Problems with the Replicability and Transparency Regime
Researchers studying conflict, violence, and human rights in dangerous settings across the globe face a complex set of ethical, personal, and professional dilemmas. Especially in more positivist fields and professions, there is pressure to conduct and present research as 'objective'. Yet the reality of field research in violent and conflict-affected settings is much messier than ideals in methodology textbooks or the polished presentation of fiel…
Nicaragua: Doubling Down on Dictatorship
After Nicaragua's fraudulent 2016 elections, President Daniel Ortega and Vice-President and First Lady Rosario Murillo appeared firmly in control, buoyed by economic growth and elite alliances. When protests unexpectedly erupted in 2018, Ortega and Murillo chose deepening repression, using police, paramilitaries, and the judiciary to crush dissent and extinguish political freedoms. Nicaragua's 2021 elections took place with all opposition contend…
Mixed Methods Research in the Study of Political and Social Violence and Conflict
The study of political and social violence and conflict has expanded in recent decades, concurrent with a rise in the use of mixed methods research (MMR) throughout the social sciences. This article examines how methods are best integrated in studies of violence and conflict, critically reviewing examples from previous prominent works and suggesting directions for future research. I explore the benefits of MMR for understanding structures, agency…
Civil Resistance in the Shadow of the Revolution: Historical Framing in Nicaragua's Sudden Uprising
Are long-standing, widespread grievances a necessary condition for civil resistance campaigns? We argue historical framing can enable sudden mass uprisings even where long-standing anti-regime grievances are absent. Protest cascades can develop to challenge relatively stable, popular governments through four interdependent historical framing mechanisms. First, protesters and bystanders may draw analogies to historical contentious episodes. Second…
Framing Police Violence: Repression, Reform, and the Power of History in Chile
State violence against protests often backfires, spurring greater mobilization and demands for police reform. Yet major reforms rarely materialize. How can activists frame contentious events to build support for their policy goals? We examine whether historical frames that draw parallels between past and present episodes of state violence make people more likely to support police reforms. We test our theory with a survey experiment in Chile 15 mo…
Rebel Mobilization through Pandering: Insincere Leaders, Framing, and Exploitation of Popular Grievances
In civil wars, unpopular and violent rebel organizations sometimes gain support from politically motivated constituencies who should, by outside appearances, logically oppose such groups. I explain this through a logic in which self-interested, insincere rebel leaders pander to aggrieved civilian populations to mobilize them, presenting the rebel organization as empathizing with and offering solutions to popular grievances. Leaders exploit an inf…
From snapshots to panoramas: Navigating Power, Space, and Time in the Study of Armed Groups
The complex nature of civil conflict makes it inherently difficult to study, which is exacerbated by the challenges of conducting field research in volatile conflict zones. How do these challenges affect the data gathered and inferences drawn about armed groups? This article examines the epistemological, practical, and ethical issues of researching armed organisations across varying power relations, space, and time. We highlight the divergent per…
Civil wars as critical junctures: Conceptual grounding and empirical potential
Civil wars are not only destructive: they can also generate new, long-lasting social, political, and economic structures and processes. To account for this productive potential and analyse post-conflict outcomes, I argue that we should analyse civil wars as critical junctures. Civil wars can relax structural constraints, opening opportunities for wartime processes to generate changes or to reinforce, rather than transform, the status quo. Changes…
Statebuilding and indigenous rights implementation: Political incentives, social movement pressure, and autonomy policy in Central America
What explains when states strengthen, maintain, or erode political-territorial Indigenous autonomy regimes? Indigenous activists around the world have fought for the right to govern their own lands and communities and have sometimes won major legal concessions from national governments. Yet initial breakthroughs often give way to lackluster state implementation or even erosion of Indigenous autonomy rights. We examine how statebuilding incentives…
Delegation, Sponsorship, and Autonomy: An Integrated Framework for Understanding Armed Group–State Relationships
What types of relationships do armed groups have with states? How do different levels of ties and power relations affect both armed group and government behavior? This article develops a spectrum across which armed group–state relationships can move, focusing on three key types of relationships—delegation, sponsorship, and autonomy. An armed group–state relationship may be classified depending on the degree to which the armed group receives mater…
Has Liberia Turned a Corner
While Liberia's postconflict stability is impressive, its institutions are weak, and its democratic consolidation is incomplete and reversible. Analyzing Liberia's 2005, 2011, and 2017 elections reveals three trends. First, there has been an ongoing establishment of the norm that power should be contested institutionally, rather than by nonconstitutional means. Second, each election has seen allegations of electoral fraud by losing candidates, ex…
Foreshadowing Future Slaughter: From the Indonesian Killings of 1965–1966 to the 1974–1999 Genocide in East Timor
The failure of the international community to act on the legal and moral imperative to stop, punish, and prevent genocide and other mass killings has led to the establishment of genocidal regimes that institutionalize genocide as a tactic of repression and power consolidation. One such repeat offender regime was the New Order government of Indonesia, which committed mass killings of known and alleged communists throughout Indonesia in 1965–1966 a…
Ideology and Violence in Civil Wars: Theory and Evidence from Mozambique and Angola
Theories that seek to explain patterns of violence in civil wars frequently pass over the issue of ideology. This paper argues that ideology may shape the use of selective versus indiscriminate violence by an armed group. The role of ideology is examined in the cases of Frelimo in Mozambique and the MPLA in Angola in their countries' wars of independence and civil wars. Using archival and newspaper data, I find that the Marxist–Leninist ideology …
Mixed Methods Research in the Study of Political and Social Violence and Conflict
The study of political and social violence and conflict has expanded in recent decades, concurrent with a rise in the use of mixed methods research (MMR) throughout the social sciences. This article examines how methods are best integrated in studies of violence and conflict, critically reviewing examples from previous prominent works and suggesting directions for future research. I explore the benefits of MMR for understanding structures, agency…
Nicaragua: A Return to Caudillismo
Nicaragua's 2016 elections saw President Daniel Ortega win a third consecutive term, and his wife, Rosario Murillo, become Vice President, in the face of an opposition abstention campaign. Since winning the presidency in 2007, Ortega has consolidated control over Nicaragua's institutions and economy while rejecting his revolutionary roots, stifling opposition parties and civil society, and enriching his family and associates. Ortega's move from e…
Dirty Hands and Vicious Deeds: The US Government’s Complicity in Crimes against Humanity and Genocide
Dynamique et diversité des armées africaines: État des connaissances
Dans son grand récit historique sur les armées africaines, Edgerton (2004) affirme que les armées du continent sont passées de l’honneur à l’infamie. D’autres conceptions populaires qualifient les armées africaines de « non professionnelles », « non pertinentes » et « dangereuses » (Howe, 2005). Est-ce le cas ? Et si oui, pourquoi ? Aujourd’hui, près de soixante ans après les indépendances, que savons-nous de la nature des armées africaines, de l…
Has Liberia Turned a Corner
While Liberia's postconflict stability is impressive, its institutions are weak, and its democratic consolidation is incomplete and reversible. Analyzing Liberia's 2005, 2011, and 2017 elections reveals three trends. First, there has been an ongoing establishment of the norm that power should be contested institutionally, rather than by nonconstitutional means. Second, each election has seen allegations of electoral fraud by losing candidates, ex…
Military integration and intelligence capacity: Informational effects of incorporating former rebels
Military integration seeks to improve counterinsurgency and peacebuilding outcomes by incorporating former rebels into preexisting or new state security forces during or after civil wars. While peacebuilders continue to promote military integration, there is mixed evidence about its effectiveness and the mechanisms through which it affects counterinsurgency and peace duration. One underexplored mechanism is the effect of military integration on i…
Delegation, Sponsorship, and Autonomy: An Integrated Framework for Understanding Armed Group–State Relationships
What types of relationships do armed groups have with states? How do different levels of ties and power relations affect both armed group and government behavior? This article develops a spectrum across which armed group–state relationships can move, focusing on three key types of relationships—delegation, sponsorship, and autonomy. An armed group–state relationship may be classified depending on the degree to which the armed group receives mater…
Gambling with Violence: State Outsourcing of War in Pakistan and India
Reflexivity and Temporality in Researching Violent Settings: Problems with the Replicability and Transparency Regime
Researchers studying conflict, violence, and human rights in dangerous settings across the globe face a complex set of ethical, personal, and professional dilemmas. Especially in more positivist fields and professions, there is pressure to conduct and present research as 'objective'. Yet the reality of field research in violent and conflict-affected settings is much messier than ideals in methodology textbooks or the polished presentation of fiel…
Political Leadership in Africa: Leaders and Development South of the Sahara by Giovanni Carbone and Alessandro Pellegata
Nicaragua: Doubling Down on Dictatorship
After Nicaragua's fraudulent 2016 elections, President Daniel Ortega and Vice-President and First Lady Rosario Murillo appeared firmly in control, buoyed by economic growth and elite alliances. When protests unexpectedly erupted in 2018, Ortega and Murillo chose deepening repression, using police, paramilitaries, and the judiciary to crush dissent and extinguish political freedoms. Nicaragua's 2021 elections took place with all opposition contend…
Civil Resistance in the Shadow of the Revolution: Historical Framing in Nicaragua's Sudden Uprising
Are long-standing, widespread grievances a necessary condition for civil resistance campaigns? We argue historical framing can enable sudden mass uprisings even where long-standing anti-regime grievances are absent. Protest cascades can develop to challenge relatively stable, popular governments through four interdependent historical framing mechanisms. First, protesters and bystanders may draw analogies to historical contentious episodes. Second…
Rebel Mobilization through Pandering: Insincere Leaders, Framing, and Exploitation of Popular Grievances
In civil wars, unpopular and violent rebel organizations sometimes gain support from politically motivated constituencies who should, by outside appearances, logically oppose such groups. I explain this through a logic in which self-interested, insincere rebel leaders pander to aggrieved civilian populations to mobilize them, presenting the rebel organization as empathizing with and offering solutions to popular grievances. Leaders exploit an inf…
Statebuilding and indigenous rights implementation: Political incentives, social movement pressure, and autonomy policy in Central America
What explains when states strengthen, maintain, or erode political-territorial Indigenous autonomy regimes? Indigenous activists around the world have fought for the right to govern their own lands and communities and have sometimes won major legal concessions from national governments. Yet initial breakthroughs often give way to lackluster state implementation or even erosion of Indigenous autonomy rights. We examine how statebuilding incentives…
Framing Police Violence: Repression, Reform, and the Power of History in Chile
State violence against protests often backfires, spurring greater mobilization and demands for police reform. Yet major reforms rarely materialize. How can activists frame contentious events to build support for their policy goals? We examine whether historical frames that draw parallels between past and present episodes of state violence make people more likely to support police reforms. We test our theory with a survey experiment in Chile 15 mo…
Levels of Analysis and Variation in Civil War Violence and Restraint: Ideology and Contestation in Nicaragua
How can we analyze violence against civilians in civil wars over time and with attention both to local context and international comparability? I argue that we should integrate theories across levels of analysis, applying this to testing existing theories of civil war violence and state repression in the case of the Frente Sandinista de Liberación Nacional (FSLN) in Nicaragua. Using interviews, archival evidence, and human rights reports, I argue…
Civil wars as critical junctures: Conceptual grounding and empirical potential
Civil wars are not only destructive: they can also generate new, long-lasting social, political, and economic structures and processes. To account for this productive potential and analyse post-conflict outcomes, I argue that we should analyse civil wars as critical junctures. Civil wars can relax structural constraints, opening opportunities for wartime processes to generate changes or to reinforce, rather than transform, the status quo. Changes…
From snapshots to panoramas: Navigating Power, Space, and Time in the Study of Armed Groups
The complex nature of civil conflict makes it inherently difficult to study, which is exacerbated by the challenges of conducting field research in volatile conflict zones. How do these challenges affect the data gathered and inferences drawn about armed groups? This article examines the epistemological, practical, and ethical issues of researching armed organisations across varying power relations, space, and time. We highlight the divergent per…
Stumbling out of the Gates: Security Strategy and Military Weakness after Revolutionary Victory
From Insurgent to Incumbent: Ideology, Rebel Governance, and Statebuilding after Rebel Victory in Civil Wars
Why do some victorious rebels invest in statebuilding and public goods, while others prioritize private enrichment? I theorize that post-victory governance is rooted in rebels’ pre-victory ideologies, distinguishing between rebels’ ideologies on two dimensions: how much they aim to transform society (programmatic or opportunistic) and the proportion of the population they wish to benefit (inclusive or exclusive). Programmatic transformation and d…
Transit migration entrepreneurship: Explaining Nicaragua’s state-controlled, profit-seeking transit migration industry
How and why do governments develop profit-seeking migration industries around transit migration? Restrictive international migration policies, such as border externalization and migrant rentierism, compel migrants to transit through multiple countries to reach their final destinations, creating new dilemmas and opportunities for transit country governments. Between 2021 and 2025, thousands of migrants from across the globe arrived in Nicaragua vi…
Crime, Crackdowns, and Democracy in Ecuador
Ecuador has shifted from relative peace to extreme violence, with homicide rates soaring as state capacity and security institutions were dismantled after Rafael Correa's presidency. Daniel Noboa, elected in 2023 and reelected in 2025, has responded with a militarized mano dura strategy, invoking internal armed conflict, frequent states of emergency, and expanded military roles. These measures have not reduced violence but have weakened judicial …
Political science (20 works) · Sociology (17 works) · Law (16 works) · Law (15 works) · Politics (15 works) · Political economy (12 works) · Political Conflict and Governance (10 works) · Democracy (7 works) · Criminology (6 works) · Peacebuilding and International Security (6 works)