Thomas S Ferguson
Biographic Data
| ID | 1196358 |
|---|---|
| NAME | Thomas S Ferguson |
| GIVEN NAMES | Thomas S |
| FAMILY NAME | Ferguson |
| SIGNATURE | FERGUSON T S |
| AFFILIATIONS | University of Massachusetts Boston |
| VERIFIED | No |
| TOTAL WORKS | 32 |
| TOTAL CITATIONS | 159 |
| AUTHOR COUNT | 32 |
| EDITOR COUNT | 0 |
| FIRST PUBLICATION YEAR | 1952 |
| LATEST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2024 |
| H-INDEX | 5 |
Good Policy or Good Luck? Why Inflation Fell Without a Recession
This article analyzes claims that the Federal Reserve is principally responsible for the decline of inflation in the U.S. We compare several different quantitative approaches. These show that at most the Fed could plausibly claim credit for somewhere between twenty and forty percent of the decline. The article then examines claims by central bankers and their supporters that a steadfast Fed commitment to keeping inflationary expectations anchored…
Myth and Reality in the Great Inflation Debate: Supply Shocks and Wealth Effects in a Multipolar World Economy
This article critically evaluates debates over the causes of U.S. inflation. We first show that claims that the Biden stimulus was the major cause of inflation are mistaken: the key data series—stimulus spending and inflation—move dramatically out of phase. While the first ebbs quickly, the second persistently surges. We then look at alternative explanations for the price rises. We assess four supply-side factors: imports, energy prices, rises in…
Alain Parguez and His Contributions to Political Economy: Introduction
The economics profession, like the rest of the world, suffered grievously during the pandemic
A Tribute to Alain Parguez 1940–2022
International audience
The Knife Edge Election of 2020: American Politics Between Washington, Kabul, and Weimar
This paper analyzes the 2020 election, focusing on voters, not political money, and emphasizing the importance of economic geography. Drawing extensively on county election returns, it analyzes how spatial factors combined with industrial structures to shape the outcome. It treats COVID 19's role at length. The paper reviews studies suggesting that COVID 19 did not matter much, but then sets out a new approach indicating it mattered a great deal.…
The Roots of Right-Wing Populism: Donald Trump in 2016
Using survey data from the American National Election Study (ANES) and aggregate data on Congressional districts, this article assesses the roles that economic and social factors played in Donald J. Trump’s 2016 “populist” presidential candidacy. It shows the hollowness of claims that economic issues played little or no role. While agreeing that racial resentment and sexism were important factors, the article shows how various economic considerat…
Calliope's Playful Touch: An Educational Paradigm in the Mitologiae of Planciades Fulgentius
In his longest work, Mitologiae, Planciadus Fulgentius (the Mythographer), retells fifty Greek myths and legends. His aim is to teach students that Classical literature has educational value for the Christian. He receives inspiration from the Muse, Calliope, who appears with a mixture of gravitas and capriciousness. Under her influence, he uses etymological interpretations to uncover hidden philosophical meanings in the myths. One theme that emer…
Party Competition and Industrial Structure in the 2012 Elections: Who's Really Driving the Taxi to the Dark Side
This paper analyzes patterns of industrial structure and party competition in the 2012 presidential election. The analysis rests on a new and more comprehensive database that catches more of the myriad ways in which businesses and major investors make political contributions than previous studies do. By drawing on this unified database, the paper is able to show that both major parties depend on very large donors to a greater extent than past stu…
A World Upside Down: Deficit Fantasies in the Great Recession
This paper analyzes U.S. budget debates in the context of the G-20's turn toward austerity at the 2010 Toronto Summit. It begins by looking at claims by Reinhart and Rogoff and the International Monetary Fund that rising ratios of government debt/gross domestic product pose serious threats to economic growth. Then the paper considers Alesina and Ardagna's contention that deep cuts in deficits somehow stimulate economies. The paper shows that none…
Too Big to Bail: The "Paulson Put," Presidential Politics, and the Global Financial Meltdown
This paper analyzes how a world financial meltdown developed out of U.S. subprime mortgage markets. It outlines how deregulatory initiatives allowed Wall Street to build an entire line of new, risky financial products out of raw materials the mortgage markets supplied. We show how further bipartisan regulatory failures allowed these same firms to take on extreme amounts of leverage, which guaranteed that when a crisis hit, it would be severe. A p…
Too Big to Bail: The "Paulson Put," Presidential Politics, and the Global Financial Meltdown
This paper is the second part of our study of the world financial crisis. Part I, "From Shadow Banking System to Shadow Bailout," appeared in the previous issue of this journal (Ferguson and Johnson 2009). The discussion centers on the "Paulson Put" that defined the "Shadow Bailout"—the effort by the Treasury and the Federal Reserve to put off high-profile financial bailouts until after the 2008 presidential election. The role Fannie Mae and Fred…
Betting on Hitler—The Value of Political Connections in Nazi Germany
This paper examines the value of connections between German industry and the Nazi movement in early 1933. Drawing on previously unused contemporary sources about management and supervisory board composition and stock returns, we find that one out of seven firms, and a large proportion of the biggest companies, had substantive links with the National Socialist German Workers' Party. Firms supporting the Nazi movement experienced unusually high ret…
"Comment on "The German Twin Crisis of 1931
It is lovely to see attention to this critical episode in the Great Depression. Isabel Schnabel repeats the familiar argument that bank behavior was a primary cause of the German crisis. We have argued elsewhere that the German crisis clearly began as a currency crisis, not a banking crisis. The purpose of this comment is to examine the data that Schnabel's article brings to bear on this question and evaluate the evidence it presents in support o…
American Business and Political Power: Public Opinion, Elections and Democracy . Mark A. Smith
Guardians of Letters: Literacy, Power, and the Transmitters of Early Christian Literature
The Council of Pavia‐Siena and Medieval Conciliarism
State and Party in America's New Deal
Journal Article State and Party in America's New Deal. By Kenneth Finegold and Theda Skocpol. (Madison: University of Wisconsin Press, 1995. xiv, 342 pp. Cloth, $54.00, ISBN 0-299-14760-6. Paper, $19.95, ISBN 0-299-14764-9.) Get access Thomas Ferguson Thomas Ferguson University of Massachusetts, Boston, Massachusetts Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Scholar Journal of American History, Volume 84, Issue 2, September…
Golden Rule: The Investment Theory of Party Competition and the Logic of Money-Driven Political Systems
Journal Article Golden Rule: The Investment Theory of Party Competition and the Logic of Money-Driven Political Systems. By Thomas Ferguson. (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1995. vi, 432 pp. Cloth, $55.00, ISBN 0-226-24316-8. Paper, $17.95, ISBN 0-226-24317-6.) Get access Lewis L. Gould Lewis L. Gould University of Texas, Austin, Texas Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Scholar Journal of American History, Vol…
Golden Rule: The Investment Theory of Party Competition and the Logic of Money-Driven Political Systems
Industrial Structure and Party Competition in the New Deal: A Reply to Webber
This paper is a response to Webber's (1991) critique of Thomas Ferguson's (1983, 1984, 1986) essays on the New Deal and his “investment theory” of political parties. It argues that Webber's evidence is invalid and that his statistical design is conceptually flawed. The sample is defective: it includes many people it should not and it excludes others who should have been reckoned in, notably many Texas oilmen. His procedure for ascertaining corpor…
Answers to Stock Questions: Fed Targets, Stock Prices, and the Gold Standard in the Great Depression
190-200
Right Turn: The Decline of the Democrats and the Future of American Politics
The Right Consensus: Holsti and Rosenau's New Foreign Policy Belief Surveys
Journal Article The Right Consensus? Holsti and Rosenau's New Foreign Policy Belief Surveys Get access Thomas Ferguson Thomas Ferguson University of Texas, Austin Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Scholar International Studies Quarterly, Volume 30, Issue 4, December 1986, Pages 411–423, https://doi.org/10.2307/2600642 Published: 01 December 1986
Monetary Policy, Loan Liquidation, and Industrial Conflict: The Federal Reserve and the Open Market Operations of 1932
Early in 1932 the Federal Reserve System made a serious attempt to reverse the “Great Contraction” throught expansionary open market operations, but abandoned it a few months later. In this paper we offer an interpretation of the episode that throws new light on the Fed's behavior during the Depression. Key are the attitude of private bankers, Britain's abandonment of the gold standard, and the brief open market campaign. To protect bank profits …
From Normalcy to New Deal: Industrial structure, party competition, and American public policy in the Great Depression
Industrial partisan preference may be formally modeled as the joint consequence of pressures from labor and the differential impact of the world economy on particular businesses. This “basic” and static model, when extended to cover the money market, can be used to examine questions of political development, including the effects of fluctuations in national income on political coalitions. American institutions and public policy during the New Dea…
From Normalcy to New Deal: Industrial structure, party competition, and American public policy in the Great Depression
Industrial partisan preference may be formally modeled as the joint consequence of pressures from labor and the differential impact of the world economy on particular businesses. This “basic” and static model, when extended to cover the money market, can be used to examine questions of political development, including the effects of fluctuations in national income on political coalitions. American institutions and public policy during the New Dea…
Monetary Policy, Loan Liquidation, and Industrial Conflict: The Federal Reserve and the Open Market Operations of 1932
Early in 1932 the Federal Reserve System made a serious attempt to reverse the “Great Contraction” throught expansionary open market operations, but abandoned it a few months later. In this paper we offer an interpretation of the episode that throws new light on the Fed's behavior during the Depression. Key are the attitude of private bankers, Britain's abandonment of the gold standard, and the brief open market campaign. To protect bank profits …
The Hidden Election: Politics and Economics in the 1980 Presidential Campaign
Too Big to Bail: The "Paulson Put," Presidential Politics, and the Global Financial Meltdown
This paper is the second part of our study of the world financial crisis. Part I, "From Shadow Banking System to Shadow Bailout," appeared in the previous issue of this journal (Ferguson and Johnson 2009). The discussion centers on the "Paulson Put" that defined the "Shadow Bailout"—the effort by the Treasury and the Federal Reserve to put off high-profile financial bailouts until after the 2008 presidential election. The role Fannie Mae and Fred…
The Right Consensus: Holsti and Rosenau's New Foreign Policy Belief Surveys
Journal Article The Right Consensus? Holsti and Rosenau's New Foreign Policy Belief Surveys Get access Thomas Ferguson Thomas Ferguson University of Texas, Austin Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Scholar International Studies Quarterly, Volume 30, Issue 4, December 1986, Pages 411–423, https://doi.org/10.2307/2600642 Published: 01 December 1986
Myth and Reality in the Great Inflation Debate: Supply Shocks and Wealth Effects in a Multipolar World Economy
This article critically evaluates debates over the causes of U.S. inflation. We first show that claims that the Biden stimulus was the major cause of inflation are mistaken: the key data series—stimulus spending and inflation—move dramatically out of phase. While the first ebbs quickly, the second persistently surges. We then look at alternative explanations for the price rises. We assess four supply-side factors: imports, energy prices, rises in…
Too Big to Bail: The "Paulson Put," Presidential Politics, and the Global Financial Meltdown
This paper analyzes how a world financial meltdown developed out of U.S. subprime mortgage markets. It outlines how deregulatory initiatives allowed Wall Street to build an entire line of new, risky financial products out of raw materials the mortgage markets supplied. We show how further bipartisan regulatory failures allowed these same firms to take on extreme amounts of leverage, which guaranteed that when a crisis hit, it would be severe. A p…
The Knife Edge Election of 2020: American Politics Between Washington, Kabul, and Weimar
This paper analyzes the 2020 election, focusing on voters, not political money, and emphasizing the importance of economic geography. Drawing extensively on county election returns, it analyzes how spatial factors combined with industrial structures to shape the outcome. It treats COVID 19's role at length. The paper reviews studies suggesting that COVID 19 did not matter much, but then sets out a new approach indicating it mattered a great deal.…
Answers to Stock Questions: Fed Targets, Stock Prices, and the Gold Standard in the Great Depression
190-200
The Roots of Right-Wing Populism: Donald Trump in 2016
Using survey data from the American National Election Study (ANES) and aggregate data on Congressional districts, this article assesses the roles that economic and social factors played in Donald J. Trump’s 2016 “populist” presidential candidacy. It shows the hollowness of claims that economic issues played little or no role. While agreeing that racial resentment and sexism were important factors, the article shows how various economic considerat…
Party Competition and Industrial Structure in the 2012 Elections: Who's Really Driving the Taxi to the Dark Side
This paper analyzes patterns of industrial structure and party competition in the 2012 presidential election. The analysis rests on a new and more comprehensive database that catches more of the myriad ways in which businesses and major investors make political contributions than previous studies do. By drawing on this unified database, the paper is able to show that both major parties depend on very large donors to a greater extent than past stu…
The Young Wage-Earner. A Study of Glasgow Boys
Alain Parguez and His Contributions to Political Economy: Introduction
The economics profession, like the rest of the world, suffered grievously during the pandemic
In Their Early Twenties: A Study of Glasgow Youth
Journal Article In Their Early Twenties: A Study of Glasgow Youth Get access In Their Early Twenties: A Study of Glasgow Youth. By T. Ferguson and J. Cunnison. (London: Oxford University Press for the Nuffield Foundation, 1956. Pp. 110. 12s. 6d.) N. B. Dearle N. B. Dearle All Souls College, Oxford Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Scholar The Economic Journal, Volume 67, Issue 267, 1 September 1957, Pages 530–531, h…
The Young Wage-Earner: A Study of Glasgow Boys
Journal Article The Young Wage-Earner: A Study of Glasgow Boys Get access The Young Wage-Earner : A Study of Glasgow Boys. By T. FERGUSON and J. CXJNNISON, with a Foreword by SIR HECTOR HETHERINGTON. (London: Oxford University Press for the Nuffield Foundation, 1951. Pp. x + 194. 8s. Qd. net) N. B. Dearle N. B. Dearle All Souls College, Oxford Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Scholar The Economic Journal, Volume 62…
The Young Wage-Earner. A Study of Glasgow Boys
The Young Wage-Earner
In Their Early Twenties: A Study of Glasgow Youth
Journal Article In Their Early Twenties: A Study of Glasgow Youth Get access In Their Early Twenties: A Study of Glasgow Youth. By T. Ferguson and J. Cunnison. (London: Oxford University Press for the Nuffield Foundation, 1956. Pp. 110. 12s. 6d.) N. B. Dearle N. B. Dearle All Souls College, Oxford Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Scholar The Economic Journal, Volume 67, Issue 267, 1 September 1957, Pages 530–531, h…
The Political Economy of Knowledge and The Changing Politics of Philosophy of Science
The most striking characteristic of academic thought is its innocence. What follows is an argument that this innocence grossly distorts current discussions of the role of falsification in the growth of scientific knowledge. Specifically, that the real causes of the irresolution and aimlessness of the dispute are the diverse images of the societal functions of science, comprising both descriptive and prescriptive components, held firmly, although …
The Hidden Election: Politics and Economics in the 1980 Presidential Campaign
End of an Era? Reagan and the 1980s
Monetary Policy, Loan Liquidation, and Industrial Conflict: The Federal Reserve and the Open Market Operations of 1932
Early in 1932 the Federal Reserve System made a serious attempt to reverse the “Great Contraction” throught expansionary open market operations, but abandoned it a few months later. In this paper we offer an interpretation of the episode that throws new light on the Fed's behavior during the Depression. Key are the attitude of private bankers, Britain's abandonment of the gold standard, and the brief open market campaign. To protect bank profits …
From Normalcy to New Deal: Industrial structure, party competition, and American public policy in the Great Depression
Industrial partisan preference may be formally modeled as the joint consequence of pressures from labor and the differential impact of the world economy on particular businesses. This “basic” and static model, when extended to cover the money market, can be used to examine questions of political development, including the effects of fluctuations in national income on political coalitions. American institutions and public policy during the New Dea…
The Right Consensus: Holsti and Rosenau's New Foreign Policy Belief Surveys
Journal Article The Right Consensus? Holsti and Rosenau's New Foreign Policy Belief Surveys Get access Thomas Ferguson Thomas Ferguson University of Texas, Austin Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Scholar International Studies Quarterly, Volume 30, Issue 4, December 1986, Pages 411–423, https://doi.org/10.2307/2600642 Published: 01 December 1986
Right Turn: The Decline of the Democrats and the Future of American Politics
Industrial Structure and Party Competition in the New Deal: A Reply to Webber
This paper is a response to Webber's (1991) critique of Thomas Ferguson's (1983, 1984, 1986) essays on the New Deal and his “investment theory” of political parties. It argues that Webber's evidence is invalid and that his statistical design is conceptually flawed. The sample is defective: it includes many people it should not and it excludes others who should have been reckoned in, notably many Texas oilmen. His procedure for ascertaining corpor…
Answers to Stock Questions: Fed Targets, Stock Prices, and the Gold Standard in the Great Depression
190-200
Golden Rule: The Investment Theory of Party Competition and the Logic of Money-Driven Political Systems
Golden Rule: The Investment Theory of Party Competition and the Logic of Money-Driven Political Systems
Journal Article Golden Rule: The Investment Theory of Party Competition and the Logic of Money-Driven Political Systems. By Thomas Ferguson. (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1995. vi, 432 pp. Cloth, $55.00, ISBN 0-226-24316-8. Paper, $17.95, ISBN 0-226-24317-6.) Get access Lewis L. Gould Lewis L. Gould University of Texas, Austin, Texas Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Scholar Journal of American History, Vol…
State and Party in America's New Deal
Journal Article State and Party in America's New Deal. By Kenneth Finegold and Theda Skocpol. (Madison: University of Wisconsin Press, 1995. xiv, 342 pp. Cloth, $54.00, ISBN 0-299-14760-6. Paper, $19.95, ISBN 0-299-14764-9.) Get access Thomas Ferguson Thomas Ferguson University of Massachusetts, Boston, Massachusetts Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Scholar Journal of American History, Volume 84, Issue 2, September…
The Council of Pavia‐Siena and Medieval Conciliarism
American Business and Political Power: Public Opinion, Elections and Democracy . Mark A. Smith
Guardians of Letters: Literacy, Power, and the Transmitters of Early Christian Literature
"Comment on "The German Twin Crisis of 1931
It is lovely to see attention to this critical episode in the Great Depression. Isabel Schnabel repeats the familiar argument that bank behavior was a primary cause of the German crisis. We have argued elsewhere that the German crisis clearly began as a currency crisis, not a banking crisis. The purpose of this comment is to examine the data that Schnabel's article brings to bear on this question and evaluate the evidence it presents in support o…
Betting on Hitler—The Value of Political Connections in Nazi Germany
This paper examines the value of connections between German industry and the Nazi movement in early 1933. Drawing on previously unused contemporary sources about management and supervisory board composition and stock returns, we find that one out of seven firms, and a large proportion of the biggest companies, had substantive links with the National Socialist German Workers' Party. Firms supporting the Nazi movement experienced unusually high ret…
Too Big to Bail: The "Paulson Put," Presidential Politics, and the Global Financial Meltdown
This paper analyzes how a world financial meltdown developed out of U.S. subprime mortgage markets. It outlines how deregulatory initiatives allowed Wall Street to build an entire line of new, risky financial products out of raw materials the mortgage markets supplied. We show how further bipartisan regulatory failures allowed these same firms to take on extreme amounts of leverage, which guaranteed that when a crisis hit, it would be severe. A p…
Too Big to Bail: The "Paulson Put," Presidential Politics, and the Global Financial Meltdown
This paper is the second part of our study of the world financial crisis. Part I, "From Shadow Banking System to Shadow Bailout," appeared in the previous issue of this journal (Ferguson and Johnson 2009). The discussion centers on the "Paulson Put" that defined the "Shadow Bailout"—the effort by the Treasury and the Federal Reserve to put off high-profile financial bailouts until after the 2008 presidential election. The role Fannie Mae and Fred…
A World Upside Down: Deficit Fantasies in the Great Recession
This paper analyzes U.S. budget debates in the context of the G-20's turn toward austerity at the 2010 Toronto Summit. It begins by looking at claims by Reinhart and Rogoff and the International Monetary Fund that rising ratios of government debt/gross domestic product pose serious threats to economic growth. Then the paper considers Alesina and Ardagna's contention that deep cuts in deficits somehow stimulate economies. The paper shows that none…
Party Competition and Industrial Structure in the 2012 Elections: Who's Really Driving the Taxi to the Dark Side
This paper analyzes patterns of industrial structure and party competition in the 2012 presidential election. The analysis rests on a new and more comprehensive database that catches more of the myriad ways in which businesses and major investors make political contributions than previous studies do. By drawing on this unified database, the paper is able to show that both major parties depend on very large donors to a greater extent than past stu…
Economics (23 works) · Political science (21 works) · Law (17 works) · Politics (16 works) · Law (13 works) · History (9 works) · Political economy (9 works) · Economic Theory and Policy (8 works) · Sociology (8 works) · Economic history (7 works)