Lucas M Novaes
Biographic Data
| ID | 1198190 |
|---|---|
| NAME | Lucas M Novaes |
| GIVEN NAMES | Lucas M |
| FAMILY NAME | Novaes |
| SIGNATURE | NOVAES L M |
| AFFILIATIONS | Insper |
| ORCID | 0000-0001-9154-6065 |
| VERIFIED | Yes |
| TOTAL WORKS | 7 |
| TOTAL CITATIONS | 90 |
| AUTHOR COUNT | 7 |
| EDITOR COUNT | 0 |
| FIRST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2010 |
| LATEST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2025 |
| H-INDEX | 3 |
Special Interest Trade-Offs
Bolsonaro’s Botched Coup Attempt Exposed Political Fault Lines in the Brazilian Democracy
This paper analyzes the institutional legacy of the Bolsonaro government on Brazilian democracy, with effects on 2023 and beyond. Focusing on the rebalance of the power of the executive branch vis-a-vis other powers, we argue that Bolsonaro's botched coup attempt exposed the limitations of existing regime safeguards. First, the activation of the military brought the shadow of raw power to the political table. Second, the increased leverage Congre…
Media Manipulation in Young Democracies
We investigate how dominant media networks can manipulate voters in young democracies. During the first presidential election after the democratic transition in Brazil, TV Globo, the largest and most-watched network in the country, unexpectedly manipulated the news coverage of the last debate 2 days before the decisive second round. In a video segment, Globo unfavorably depicted the left-wing candidate, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. Using the geogra…
The Violence of Law-and-Order Politics
This article analyzes the effects on violence of electing law-and-order candidates at the local level. It argues that law-and-order politicians embedded in the police will divert resources to favor their constituency, which in violence-prone areas could generate more murders. Using ballot names of council candidates in thousands of local elections in Brazil to accurately classify law-and-order candidates, it shows that the election of police law-…
Commodity Shocks and Incumbency Effects
Why do incumbents enjoy an electoral advantage in some political settings but suffer from a disadvantage in others? We propose a novel explanation linking variation in incumbency effects with exogenous commodity shocks. While voters attempt to sanction incumbents for economic performance, changes in commodity prices affect their evaluations and condition the electoral fortunes of incumbents vis-à-vis challengers. We test our argument in Brazilian…
Disloyal Brokers and Weak Parties
This article shows that the disloyalty of political brokers causes party fragility. Lacking distinctive brands, organization, and activists to mobilize individuals, parties “hire” local notables to broker votes among a local, nonpartisan constituency. However, brokers may be unreliable agents, regularly changing political allegiances in search of better returns for their brokerage among the module of voters they control. This free agency from bro…
O efeito da intenção de reeleição sobre gastos em saúde
The effect of reelection intention on public health expenditures: An analysis based on reputation models. The political model of reputational-building argues that if the incumbent politician aspires to be reassigned, he/she must act in the voters' interest to obtain their approval and consequently their votes. Considering that voters are sensitive to public health expenditures, we check how reputational incentives shift municipal spending pattern…
Disloyal Brokers and Weak Parties
This article shows that the disloyalty of political brokers causes party fragility. Lacking distinctive brands, organization, and activists to mobilize individuals, parties “hire” local notables to broker votes among a local, nonpartisan constituency. However, brokers may be unreliable agents, regularly changing political allegiances in search of better returns for their brokerage among the module of voters they control. This free agency from bro…
The Violence of Law-and-Order Politics
This article analyzes the effects on violence of electing law-and-order candidates at the local level. It argues that law-and-order politicians embedded in the police will divert resources to favor their constituency, which in violence-prone areas could generate more murders. Using ballot names of council candidates in thousands of local elections in Brazil to accurately classify law-and-order candidates, it shows that the election of police law-…
Commodity Shocks and Incumbency Effects
Why do incumbents enjoy an electoral advantage in some political settings but suffer from a disadvantage in others? We propose a novel explanation linking variation in incumbency effects with exogenous commodity shocks. While voters attempt to sanction incumbents for economic performance, changes in commodity prices affect their evaluations and condition the electoral fortunes of incumbents vis-à-vis challengers. We test our argument in Brazilian…
O efeito da intenção de reeleição sobre gastos em saúde
The effect of reelection intention on public health expenditures: An analysis based on reputation models. The political model of reputational-building argues that if the incumbent politician aspires to be reassigned, he/she must act in the voters' interest to obtain their approval and consequently their votes. Considering that voters are sensitive to public health expenditures, we check how reputational incentives shift municipal spending pattern…
Special Interest Trade-Offs
Media Manipulation in Young Democracies
We investigate how dominant media networks can manipulate voters in young democracies. During the first presidential election after the democratic transition in Brazil, TV Globo, the largest and most-watched network in the country, unexpectedly manipulated the news coverage of the last debate 2 days before the decisive second round. In a video segment, Globo unfavorably depicted the left-wing candidate, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. Using the geogra…
O efeito da intenção de reeleição sobre gastos em saúde
The effect of reelection intention on public health expenditures: An analysis based on reputation models. The political model of reputational-building argues that if the incumbent politician aspires to be reassigned, he/she must act in the voters' interest to obtain their approval and consequently their votes. Considering that voters are sensitive to public health expenditures, we check how reputational incentives shift municipal spending pattern…
Disloyal Brokers and Weak Parties
This article shows that the disloyalty of political brokers causes party fragility. Lacking distinctive brands, organization, and activists to mobilize individuals, parties “hire” local notables to broker votes among a local, nonpartisan constituency. However, brokers may be unreliable agents, regularly changing political allegiances in search of better returns for their brokerage among the module of voters they control. This free agency from bro…
Commodity Shocks and Incumbency Effects
Why do incumbents enjoy an electoral advantage in some political settings but suffer from a disadvantage in others? We propose a novel explanation linking variation in incumbency effects with exogenous commodity shocks. While voters attempt to sanction incumbents for economic performance, changes in commodity prices affect their evaluations and condition the electoral fortunes of incumbents vis-à-vis challengers. We test our argument in Brazilian…
Bolsonaro’s Botched Coup Attempt Exposed Political Fault Lines in the Brazilian Democracy
This paper analyzes the institutional legacy of the Bolsonaro government on Brazilian democracy, with effects on 2023 and beyond. Focusing on the rebalance of the power of the executive branch vis-a-vis other powers, we argue that Bolsonaro's botched coup attempt exposed the limitations of existing regime safeguards. First, the activation of the military brought the shadow of raw power to the political table. Second, the increased leverage Congre…
Media Manipulation in Young Democracies
We investigate how dominant media networks can manipulate voters in young democracies. During the first presidential election after the democratic transition in Brazil, TV Globo, the largest and most-watched network in the country, unexpectedly manipulated the news coverage of the last debate 2 days before the decisive second round. In a video segment, Globo unfavorably depicted the left-wing candidate, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. Using the geogra…
The Violence of Law-and-Order Politics
This article analyzes the effects on violence of electing law-and-order candidates at the local level. It argues that law-and-order politicians embedded in the police will divert resources to favor their constituency, which in violence-prone areas could generate more murders. Using ballot names of council candidates in thousands of local elections in Brazil to accurately classify law-and-order candidates, it shows that the election of police law-…
Special Interest Trade-Offs
Politics (6 works) · Law (5 works) · Law (5 works) · Political science (5 works) · Politics and Society in Latin America (4 works) · Business (3 works) · Democracy (3 works) · Economics (3 works) · Political economy (3 works) · Sociology (3 works)