J Scott Armstrong
Biographic Data
| ID | 127308 |
|---|---|
| NAME | J Scott Armstrong |
| GIVEN NAMES | J Scott |
| FAMILY NAME | Armstrong |
| SIGNATURE | ARMSTRONG J S |
| AFFILIATIONS | University of Pennsylvania |
| ORCID | 0000-0003-0108-0471 |
| VERIFIED | Yes |
| TOTAL WORKS | 24 |
| TOTAL CITATIONS | 56 |
| AUTHOR COUNT | 23 |
| EDITOR COUNT | 1 |
| FIRST PUBLICATION YEAR | 1968 |
| LATEST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2024 |
| H-INDEX | 5 |
Defining social innovation for post-secondary educational institutions: A concept analysis
Education, research, and contribution to society through innovation are the three missions of post-secondary educational institutions. There is a gap in understanding the concept of social innovation for post-second educational institutions. A clear definition would: (a) guide institutional strategic direction and supports, (b) recognize and reward academic research in social innovation, and (c) enable accurate measurement of outcomes and impact …
The PollyVote Popular Vote Forecast for the 2020 US Presidential Election
An abstract is not available for this content so a preview has been provided. Please use the Get access link above for information on how to access this content
A Recap of the 2016 Election Forecasts
An abstract is not available for this content so a preview has been provided. Please use the Get access link above for information on how to access this content
The PollyVote Forecast for the 2016 American Presidential Election
The PollyVote applies a century-old principle of combining different evidence-based methods for forecasting the outcome of American presidential elections. In this article, we discuss the principles followed in constructing the PollyVote formula, summarize its components, review the accuracy of its previous forecasts, and make a prediction for this year's presidential election
Forecasts of the 2012 US Presidential Election based on Candidates’ Perceived Competence in Handling the Most Important Issue
The Big-Issue Model predicts election outcomes based on voters’ perceptions of candidates’ ability to handle the most important issue. It provided accurate forecasts of the 2012 US presidential election. The results demonstrate the model's usefulness if one issue clearly dominates the campaign, such as the state of the economy in the 2012 election. It is also particularly valuable if economic fundamentals disagree, a situation in which forecasts …
Accuracy of Combined Forecasts for the 2012 Presidential Election: The PollyVote
We review the performance of the PollyVote, which combined forecasts from polls, prediction markets, experts’ judgment, political economy models, and index models to predict the two-party popular vote in the 2012 US presidential election. Throughout the election year the PollyVote provided highly accurate forecasts, outperforming each of its component methods, as well as the forecasts from FiveThirtyEight.com. Gains in accuracy were particularly …
Forecasting Elections from Voters' Perceptions of Candidates' Ability to Handle Issues
When deciding for whom to vote, voters should select the candidate they expect to best handle issues, all other things equal. A simple heuristic predicted that the candidate who is rated more favorably on a larger number of issues would win the popular vote. This was correct for nine out of ten U.S. presidential elections from 1972 to 2008. We then used simple linear regression to relate the incumbent's relative issue ratings to the actual two‐pa…
Persuasive Advertising: Evidence-Based Principles
Written by a leading authority, this book is a comprehensive and definitive guide to advertising that incorporates a vast amount of research and expert opinion. It draws upon the evidence to establish
Predicting Elections from Politicians' Faces
People are quick to infer the character of others from their faces. Plato believed that this tendency would cause people to elect inferior leaders (Plato, 1901). Modern research has found that the predisposition to make snap judgments affects hiring decisions (Meehl, 1965). Moreover, work on thin-slice judgments suggests that social evaluations may be made very quickly, to the extent that they are an automatic rather than a controlled process. Am…
Predicting elections from the most important issue: A test of the take‐the‐best heuristic
We used the take‐the‐best heuristic to develop a model to forecast the popular two‐party vote shares in U.S. presidential elections. The model draws upon information about how voters expect the candidates to deal with the most important issue facing the country. We used cross‐validation to calculate a total of 1000 out‐of‐sample forecasts, one for each of the last 100 days of the ten U.S. presidential elections from 1972 to 2008. Ninety‐seven per…
Principles of Forecasting: A Handbook for Researchers and Practitioners
Are student ratings of instruction useful
Despite the lead article's title, “Validity Concerns and Usefulness of Student Ratings of Instruction” (Greenwald, November 1997) in the American Psychologist 's special section on teacher ratings, the articles did not provide direct evidence on “usefulness.” There is no evidence that the use of teacher ratings improves learning in the long run. The articles do not show that the effects would improve the allocation of effort between teaching and …
Publication Bias against Null Results
Studies suggest a bias against the publication of null ( p >.05) results. Instead of significance, we advocate reporting effect sizes and confidence intervals, and using replication studies. If statistical tests are used, power tests should accompany them
Commentary
Prediction of Consumer Behavior by Experts and Novices
Are those who are familiar with scientific research on consumer behavior better able to make predictions about phenomena in this field? Predictions were made for 105 hypotheses from 20 empirical studies selected from Journal of Consumer Research. A total of 1,736 predictions were obtained from 16 academics, 12 practitioners, and 43 high school students: The practitioners were correct on 58.2 percent of the hypotheses, the students on 56.6 percent…
Return Postage in Mail Surveys a Meta-Analysis
This paper describes a five-step procedure for meta-analysis. Especially important was the contacting of authors of prior papers. This was done primarily to improve the accuracy of the coding; it also helped to identify unpublished research and to supply missing information. Application of the five-step procedure to the issue of return postage in mail surveys yielded significantly more papers and produced more definitive conclusions than those de…
"Commentary on "Publishing opinions: A note on the usefulness of commentaries
Commentary on Publishing Opinions: A Note on the Usefulness of J. Scott Armstrong University of Pennsylvania Christensen-Szalanski and Beach (December 1983) concluded that the given to commentaries and replies to articles did not justify the extra space. Here is another way to look at their data. The increase in journal space due to commentaries and replies was 40% in their sample. The attention given to the original article plus commentaries plu…
"Commentary on "Publishing opinions: A note on the usefulness of commentaries
Long-Range Forecasting
Estimating Nonresponse Bias in Mail Surveys
J. Scott Armstrong, Terry S. Overton, Estimating Nonresponse Bias in Mail Surveys, Journal of Marketing Research, Vol. 14, No. 3, Special Issue: Recent Developments in Survey Research (Aug., 1977), pp. 396-402
The American Presidential Elections
Tom Swift and His Electric Regression Analysis Machine: 1973
Presents the "1973 Tom Swift Award for Data Abuse
Monetary Incentives in Mail Surveys
Eighteen empirical studies from fourteen different researchers provide evidence that prepaid monetary incentives have a strong positive impact on the response rate in mail surveys. One of these studies is described here and an attempt is made to generalize from all eighteen about the relationship between size of incentives and reduction in nonresponse. These generalizations should be of value for the design of mail survey studies
On the interpretation of factor analysis
The importance of the researcher’s interpretation of factor analysis is illustrated by means of an example. The results from this example appear to be meaningful and easily interpreted. The example omits any measure of reliability or validity. If a measure of reliability had been included, it would have indicated the worthlessness of the results. A survey of 46 recent papers from 6 journals supported the claim that the example is typical, two thi…
Predicting Elections from Politicians' Faces
People are quick to infer the character of others from their faces. Plato believed that this tendency would cause people to elect inferior leaders (Plato, 1901). Modern research has found that the predisposition to make snap judgments affects hiring decisions (Meehl, 1965). Moreover, work on thin-slice judgments suggests that social evaluations may be made very quickly, to the extent that they are an automatic rather than a controlled process. Am…
Predicting elections from the most important issue: A test of the take‐the‐best heuristic
We used the take‐the‐best heuristic to develop a model to forecast the popular two‐party vote shares in U.S. presidential elections. The model draws upon information about how voters expect the candidates to deal with the most important issue facing the country. We used cross‐validation to calculate a total of 1000 out‐of‐sample forecasts, one for each of the last 100 days of the ten U.S. presidential elections from 1972 to 2008. Ninety‐seven per…
Monetary Incentives in Mail Surveys
Eighteen empirical studies from fourteen different researchers provide evidence that prepaid monetary incentives have a strong positive impact on the response rate in mail surveys. One of these studies is described here and an attempt is made to generalize from all eighteen about the relationship between size of incentives and reduction in nonresponse. These generalizations should be of value for the design of mail survey studies
On the interpretation of factor analysis
The importance of the researcher’s interpretation of factor analysis is illustrated by means of an example. The results from this example appear to be meaningful and easily interpreted. The example omits any measure of reliability or validity. If a measure of reliability had been included, it would have indicated the worthlessness of the results. A survey of 46 recent papers from 6 journals supported the claim that the example is typical, two thi…
Return Postage in Mail Surveys a Meta-Analysis
This paper describes a five-step procedure for meta-analysis. Especially important was the contacting of authors of prior papers. This was done primarily to improve the accuracy of the coding; it also helped to identify unpublished research and to supply missing information. Application of the five-step procedure to the issue of return postage in mail surveys yielded significantly more papers and produced more definitive conclusions than those de…
A Recap of the 2016 Election Forecasts
An abstract is not available for this content so a preview has been provided. Please use the Get access link above for information on how to access this content
Forecasting Elections from Voters' Perceptions of Candidates' Ability to Handle Issues
When deciding for whom to vote, voters should select the candidate they expect to best handle issues, all other things equal. A simple heuristic predicted that the candidate who is rated more favorably on a larger number of issues would win the popular vote. This was correct for nine out of ten U.S. presidential elections from 1972 to 2008. We then used simple linear regression to relate the incumbent's relative issue ratings to the actual two‐pa…
Accuracy of Combined Forecasts for the 2012 Presidential Election: The PollyVote
We review the performance of the PollyVote, which combined forecasts from polls, prediction markets, experts’ judgment, political economy models, and index models to predict the two-party popular vote in the 2012 US presidential election. Throughout the election year the PollyVote provided highly accurate forecasts, outperforming each of its component methods, as well as the forecasts from FiveThirtyEight.com. Gains in accuracy were particularly …
Prediction of Consumer Behavior by Experts and Novices
Are those who are familiar with scientific research on consumer behavior better able to make predictions about phenomena in this field? Predictions were made for 105 hypotheses from 20 empirical studies selected from Journal of Consumer Research. A total of 1,736 predictions were obtained from 16 academics, 12 practitioners, and 43 high school students: The practitioners were correct on 58.2 percent of the hypotheses, the students on 56.6 percent…
Forecasts of the 2012 US Presidential Election based on Candidates’ Perceived Competence in Handling the Most Important Issue
The Big-Issue Model predicts election outcomes based on voters’ perceptions of candidates’ ability to handle the most important issue. It provided accurate forecasts of the 2012 US presidential election. The results demonstrate the model's usefulness if one issue clearly dominates the campaign, such as the state of the economy in the 2012 election. It is also particularly valuable if economic fundamentals disagree, a situation in which forecasts …
On the interpretation of factor analysis
The importance of the researcher’s interpretation of factor analysis is illustrated by means of an example. The results from this example appear to be meaningful and easily interpreted. The example omits any measure of reliability or validity. If a measure of reliability had been included, it would have indicated the worthlessness of the results. A survey of 46 recent papers from 6 journals supported the claim that the example is typical, two thi…
Tom Swift and His Electric Regression Analysis Machine: 1973
Presents the "1973 Tom Swift Award for Data Abuse
Monetary Incentives in Mail Surveys
Eighteen empirical studies from fourteen different researchers provide evidence that prepaid monetary incentives have a strong positive impact on the response rate in mail surveys. One of these studies is described here and an attempt is made to generalize from all eighteen about the relationship between size of incentives and reduction in nonresponse. These generalizations should be of value for the design of mail survey studies
Estimating Nonresponse Bias in Mail Surveys
J. Scott Armstrong, Terry S. Overton, Estimating Nonresponse Bias in Mail Surveys, Journal of Marketing Research, Vol. 14, No. 3, Special Issue: Recent Developments in Survey Research (Aug., 1977), pp. 396-402
The American Presidential Elections
Long-Range Forecasting
"Commentary on "Publishing opinions: A note on the usefulness of commentaries
Commentary on Publishing Opinions: A Note on the Usefulness of J. Scott Armstrong University of Pennsylvania Christensen-Szalanski and Beach (December 1983) concluded that the given to commentaries and replies to articles did not justify the extra space. Here is another way to look at their data. The increase in journal space due to commentaries and replies was 40% in their sample. The attention given to the original article plus commentaries plu…
"Commentary on "Publishing opinions: A note on the usefulness of commentaries
Return Postage in Mail Surveys a Meta-Analysis
This paper describes a five-step procedure for meta-analysis. Especially important was the contacting of authors of prior papers. This was done primarily to improve the accuracy of the coding; it also helped to identify unpublished research and to supply missing information. Application of the five-step procedure to the issue of return postage in mail surveys yielded significantly more papers and produced more definitive conclusions than those de…
Commentary
Prediction of Consumer Behavior by Experts and Novices
Are those who are familiar with scientific research on consumer behavior better able to make predictions about phenomena in this field? Predictions were made for 105 hypotheses from 20 empirical studies selected from Journal of Consumer Research. A total of 1,736 predictions were obtained from 16 academics, 12 practitioners, and 43 high school students: The practitioners were correct on 58.2 percent of the hypotheses, the students on 56.6 percent…
Publication Bias against Null Results
Studies suggest a bias against the publication of null ( p >.05) results. Instead of significance, we advocate reporting effect sizes and confidence intervals, and using replication studies. If statistical tests are used, power tests should accompany them
Are student ratings of instruction useful
Despite the lead article's title, “Validity Concerns and Usefulness of Student Ratings of Instruction” (Greenwald, November 1997) in the American Psychologist 's special section on teacher ratings, the articles did not provide direct evidence on “usefulness.” There is no evidence that the use of teacher ratings improves learning in the long run. The articles do not show that the effects would improve the allocation of effort between teaching and …
Principles of Forecasting: A Handbook for Researchers and Practitioners
Persuasive Advertising: Evidence-Based Principles
Written by a leading authority, this book is a comprehensive and definitive guide to advertising that incorporates a vast amount of research and expert opinion. It draws upon the evidence to establish
Predicting Elections from Politicians' Faces
People are quick to infer the character of others from their faces. Plato believed that this tendency would cause people to elect inferior leaders (Plato, 1901). Modern research has found that the predisposition to make snap judgments affects hiring decisions (Meehl, 1965). Moreover, work on thin-slice judgments suggests that social evaluations may be made very quickly, to the extent that they are an automatic rather than a controlled process. Am…
Predicting elections from the most important issue: A test of the take‐the‐best heuristic
We used the take‐the‐best heuristic to develop a model to forecast the popular two‐party vote shares in U.S. presidential elections. The model draws upon information about how voters expect the candidates to deal with the most important issue facing the country. We used cross‐validation to calculate a total of 1000 out‐of‐sample forecasts, one for each of the last 100 days of the ten U.S. presidential elections from 1972 to 2008. Ninety‐seven per…
Forecasting Elections from Voters' Perceptions of Candidates' Ability to Handle Issues
When deciding for whom to vote, voters should select the candidate they expect to best handle issues, all other things equal. A simple heuristic predicted that the candidate who is rated more favorably on a larger number of issues would win the popular vote. This was correct for nine out of ten U.S. presidential elections from 1972 to 2008. We then used simple linear regression to relate the incumbent's relative issue ratings to the actual two‐pa…
Forecasts of the 2012 US Presidential Election based on Candidates’ Perceived Competence in Handling the Most Important Issue
The Big-Issue Model predicts election outcomes based on voters’ perceptions of candidates’ ability to handle the most important issue. It provided accurate forecasts of the 2012 US presidential election. The results demonstrate the model's usefulness if one issue clearly dominates the campaign, such as the state of the economy in the 2012 election. It is also particularly valuable if economic fundamentals disagree, a situation in which forecasts …
Accuracy of Combined Forecasts for the 2012 Presidential Election: The PollyVote
We review the performance of the PollyVote, which combined forecasts from polls, prediction markets, experts’ judgment, political economy models, and index models to predict the two-party popular vote in the 2012 US presidential election. Throughout the election year the PollyVote provided highly accurate forecasts, outperforming each of its component methods, as well as the forecasts from FiveThirtyEight.com. Gains in accuracy were particularly …
The PollyVote Forecast for the 2016 American Presidential Election
The PollyVote applies a century-old principle of combining different evidence-based methods for forecasting the outcome of American presidential elections. In this article, we discuss the principles followed in constructing the PollyVote formula, summarize its components, review the accuracy of its previous forecasts, and make a prediction for this year's presidential election
A Recap of the 2016 Election Forecasts
An abstract is not available for this content so a preview has been provided. Please use the Get access link above for information on how to access this content
The PollyVote Popular Vote Forecast for the 2020 US Presidential Election
An abstract is not available for this content so a preview has been provided. Please use the Get access link above for information on how to access this content
Defining social innovation for post-secondary educational institutions: A concept analysis
Education, research, and contribution to society through innovation are the three missions of post-secondary educational institutions. There is a gap in understanding the concept of social innovation for post-second educational institutions. A clear definition would: (a) guide institutional strategic direction and supports, (b) recognize and reward academic research in social innovation, and (c) enable accurate measurement of outcomes and impact …
Computer Science (14 works) · Political science (12 works) · Psychology (10 works) · Law (9 works) · Law (9 works) · Econometrics (8 works) · Mathematics (8 works) · Politics (8 works) · Presidential system (8 works) · Business (7 works)