Vadim Ustyuzhanin
Biographic Data
| ID | 129135 |
|---|---|
| NAME | Vadim Ustyuzhanin |
| GIVEN NAMES | Vadim |
| FAMILY NAME | Ustyuzhanin |
| SIGNATURE | USTYUZHANIN V |
| AFFILIATIONS | National Research University Higher School of Economics |
| ORCID | 0000-0003-3800-1108 |
| VERIFIED | Yes |
| TOTAL WORKS | 23 |
| TOTAL CITATIONS | 17 |
| AUTHOR COUNT | 23 |
| EDITOR COUNT | 0 |
| FIRST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2003 |
| LATEST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2026 |
| H-INDEX | 2 |
Alloparenting as a Factor of the Persistently High Fertility Rates in Central Africa
The high fertility rates that persist in Tropical African countries are a kind of anomaly, since other developing countries had lower fertility rates when having similar socio-economic development indicators — phenomenon dubbed “African pronatalism” in Western demography. Meanwhile, the lag in fertility transition contributed greatly to Africa's economic backwardness since independence, which is why the study of “African pronatalism”, the nature …
Economic development and revolutions. A cross-national investigation
In the field of civil war studies, there is a consensus that the risk of war decreases as income increases. Nevertheless, such consensus has not been reached in the field of civil resistance and unarmed revolutions. This paper proposes a curvilinear framework positing two opposite trends in economic development. On the one hand, it increases the state resources for preventing illegal displacement and makes revolt costly for rebels. Conversely, it…
The Fifth Generation of Revolution Studies. A Systematic Review
In the 21st century, a fifth generation of revolution studies has emerged, characterized by several key features. It is distinguished by macro and systemic approaches to analyzing revolutionary processes, the study of specific trends (such as urban civic revolutions) and contemporary factors, including the role of information technologies. Researchers of this generation pay special attention to revolutionary waves and their diffusion, clearly dif…
The Fifth Generation of Revolution Studies. Part II: A Systematic Review of Substantive Findings (Revolution Causes, Forms, and Waves)
The article is the first part of our systematic review of substantive findings of fifth-generation revolution studies, building on the examination of the emergence and characteristics of this generation contained in the first article in the series. Our systematic review is divided into two parts. This first part specifically considers the following areas of research explored by fifth-generation scholars: First, we examine the factors and causes o…
The Fifth Generation of Revolution Studies. Part III: A Systematic Review of Substantive Findings (Repression, Success, and Outcomes of Revolutions)
This article is the final part of our systematic review of the substantive findings of fifth-generation revolution studies, building on the examination of the emergence and characteristics of this generation contained in the first article in the series. Our systematic review is divided into two parts. In this second and final part, the following areas of research explored by fifth-generation scholars will be specifically considered: (1) impact of…
Why Do Revolutions Tend to Become Less Violent: Some Explanations of the Global Trend
Revolutionary events are increasingly likely to take unarmed forms. This trend has been observed over the past 120 years as a result of the World System transformation, wherein most societies increased their GDP per capita, experienced the spread of modern formal education, and moved from predominantly rural and very young populations to mostly urban and older ones, whereas autocratic regimes in most societies gave way to anocratic and democratic…
All Crises are Unhappy in Their Own Way: The Role of Societal Instability in Shaping the Past
Societal “crises” are periods of turmoil and destabilization in sociocultural, political, economic, and other systems, often accompanied by violent power struggles, and sometimes significant changes in social structure. The extensive literature analyzing societal crises has concentrated on a relatively small sample of well-known cases (such as the fall of the Roman Empire), emphasizing separate aspects of these events as potential causes or consi…
Revolution and Democracy in the Twenty-First Century
In this article, we analyze an inverted U-shaped relationship between the type of regime (on the autocracy-democracy scale) and the risks of revolutionary destabilization. Anocracies tend to be more vulnerable to revolutionary destabilization than full autocracies or full (consolidated) democracies. We also point to a strong positive association between the weakening of autocracies and the risks of revolutionary destabilization that exist among f…
Factors of Nonviolent Revolutions’ Onset: A Comprehensive Analysis
One of the most important trends noted by researchers in the revolutionary events of recent decades is the rapid increase in the share of unarmed revolutionary uprisings and, accordingly, a decrease in the share of armed revolutionary insurgencies. The study of this trend is of great importance. This work continues previous research on unarmed revolutionary destabilization. Unlike in past studies, the authors here have significantly expanded the …
Impact of Economic Inequality on the Probability of Revolutionary Events: The World Experience from 1995 to 2021
2000 . ( 2007 .) ( )
When Jobs Are Scarce”: The Attitudes to Female Labor in Islamic and Arab Cultures in Comparative Perspective
This study examines the influence of Islam on attitudes toward female labor force participation as reflected in responses to the World Values Survey ( WVS ) question: “When jobs are scarce, should men have more right to a job than women?”. The authors expect that respondents in Islamic (Muslim-majority) countries will have more positive attitudes toward this statement than respondents in non-Islamic countries. They test the hypothesis that the hi…
The Fifth Generation of Revolution Studies. Part I: When, Why, and How Did It Emerge
There are grounds for claiming that a new (‘fifth’) generation of revolution studies has emerged in the 21st century. It can be noted that the characteristics of this generation are as follows: a tendency toward a macro-level outlook, encompassing both historical and geographical dimensions, coupled with a propensity toward a systemic approach; study of distinct types of revolutionary processes, such as Mark Beissinger’s ‘urban civic revolutions’…
Economic Origins of Revolutions: The Link between GDP and the Risk of Revolutionary Events
The recent years have witnessed numerous studies that analyze the influence of different factors on the probability of revolutionary events. At the same time, an important set of modernization variables (GDP, urbanization, education, democratization) still remains understudied. Moreover, the results of the contemporary quantitative studies show significant discrepancies in how wealth (operationalized through GDP per capita) affects the risks of r…
Education and Revolutionary Destabilization Risks: A Quantitative Analysis
There is a significant number of theoretical studies linking education and socio-political destabilization. At the same time, there is an almost complete absence of global quantitative cross-national studies analyzing the impact of education on the risks of revolutionary uprisings. This research is aimed to fill the existing gap. The existing literature shows that education contributes to the accumulation of human capital, develops a culture of d…
Революционные события XXI века: Предварительный количественный анализ
Авторы изучают важные аспекты революционного процесса XXI века. Рассматриваются причины, по которым революционный процесс начала XXI столетия проходит довольно бурно, а также прогнозы, обещающие, что и в будущем он будет весьма активным; анализируются революционные тренды, в том числе особо тревожный – рост числа радикальных исламистских революционных выступлений. Все сказанное иллюстрируется статистическим анализом различного типа революций. Нас…
Students and protests: A quantitative cross-national analysis
Previous studies have found a positive relationship between the youth and the educated with protest number, but the form that these protests take needs further research. We argue that students are a unique group, acting neither as an educated nor a young population, and three possible mechanisms push students toward non-violent rather than violent forms of protest. By promoting values of tolerance, higher levels of human capital, and social mobil…
Education and Revolutions: Why do Revolutionary Uprisings Take Violent or Nonviolent Forms
Is there a relationship between education and the type of revolutionary action – violent or nonviolent? Past studies found a positive relationship between the education and nonviolence, but the influence that education produces on the form that revolution takes has not yet been explored. We show several possible mechanisms that push the educated population to choose nonviolent tactic: (1) education changes people’s preferences toward peaceful sol…
Revolutions and Democracy: Can Democracies Prevent Revolutionary Armed Violence
In recent years, the question of what form a revolutionary uprising will take - armed or unarmed - has been raised more often. This is because, as shown by numerous studies, revolutionary nonviolence can explain why an uprising fails or succeeds to lead to democracy. In the recent decades the likelihood of revolution being nonviolent appears to have significantly increased, but it is still not clear why this tendency is observed. Moreover, there …
Education and Revolutions (Why Do Some Revolutions Take up Arms while Others Do Not?)
Despite the existence of numerous hypotheses about what factors influence protesters’ choice of armed vs. unarmed struggle tactics, today there is a dearth of global, quantitative cross-national studies aimed at identifying the reasons why revolutions take a violent vs. a non-violent form. The article attempts to fill one of the gaps existing here by conducting a crossnational analysis of the relationship between education and the type of revolut…
Demographic Factors as Predictors of Revolutionary Situations: Experience in Quantitative Analysis
Although there are plenty of quantitative cross-national analyses on the influence of population age structure on revolutionary risks, there are currently not enough studies that examine its impact on the risks of armed and unarmed revolutions taken separately. Assuming that the dependence of potential political destabilization on the median age will differ for armed and unarmed revolutions, we propose the following hypothesis. High median age an…
Love, Marriage, Family Organization and the Puzzle of Neolocality in Non-Industrial Societies: A Cross-Cultural Study
In this paper we answer the question, “What features of family organization promote romantic love as a basis for marriage in non-industrial societies?” We also directly address Rosenblatt’s findings and those of a follow up study by Lee and Stone that, counterintuitively, show non-neolocality rather than neolocality to be correlated with love as a basis for marriage. Ember and Levinson and even Lee and Stone have thought this finding to be puzzli…
Machine Learning for Ranking Factors of Global and Regional Protest Destabilization with a Special Focus on Afrasian Instability Macrozone
Based on the experience of previous studies, the authors use machine learning methods at two levels for evaluating predictors of instability. First, they analyze the factors that lead to instability in general; second, they focus on the factors that influence the intensity of instability. Their analysis relies on data on mass protest destabilization. The system for assessing predictors of nonviolent destabilization is modernized and a two-level m…
Subjective Wellbeing and Revolutionary Destabilization. A Quantitative Analysis
The subjective well-being of the population - or the 'level of happiness' - is a popular topic for scientific research and socio-political discussions both domestically and internationally. In this regard, a direction of research is gaining traction; its proponents consider the level of happiness to be a predictor of the current socio-political stability. An analysis of the literature revealed that, despite the abundance of works on the topic of …
Revolutions and Democracy: Can Democracies Prevent Revolutionary Armed Violence
In recent years, the question of what form a revolutionary uprising will take - armed or unarmed - has been raised more often. This is because, as shown by numerous studies, revolutionary nonviolence can explain why an uprising fails or succeeds to lead to democracy. In the recent decades the likelihood of revolution being nonviolent appears to have significantly increased, but it is still not clear why this tendency is observed. Moreover, there …
Students and protests: A quantitative cross-national analysis
Previous studies have found a positive relationship between the youth and the educated with protest number, but the form that these protests take needs further research. We argue that students are a unique group, acting neither as an educated nor a young population, and three possible mechanisms push students toward non-violent rather than violent forms of protest. By promoting values of tolerance, higher levels of human capital, and social mobil…
Революционные события XXI века: Предварительный количественный анализ
Авторы изучают важные аспекты революционного процесса XXI века. Рассматриваются причины, по которым революционный процесс начала XXI столетия проходит довольно бурно, а также прогнозы, обещающие, что и в будущем он будет весьма активным; анализируются революционные тренды, в том числе особо тревожный – рост числа радикальных исламистских революционных выступлений. Все сказанное иллюстрируется статистическим анализом различного типа революций. Нас…
Education and Revolutions: Why do Revolutionary Uprisings Take Violent or Nonviolent Forms
Is there a relationship between education and the type of revolutionary action – violent or nonviolent? Past studies found a positive relationship between the education and nonviolence, but the influence that education produces on the form that revolution takes has not yet been explored. We show several possible mechanisms that push the educated population to choose nonviolent tactic: (1) education changes people’s preferences toward peaceful sol…
Machine Learning for Ranking Factors of Global and Regional Protest Destabilization with a Special Focus on Afrasian Instability Macrozone
Based on the experience of previous studies, the authors use machine learning methods at two levels for evaluating predictors of instability. First, they analyze the factors that lead to instability in general; second, they focus on the factors that influence the intensity of instability. Their analysis relies on data on mass protest destabilization. The system for assessing predictors of nonviolent destabilization is modernized and a two-level m…
Revolution and Democracy in the Twenty-First Century
In this article, we analyze an inverted U-shaped relationship between the type of regime (on the autocracy-democracy scale) and the risks of revolutionary destabilization. Anocracies tend to be more vulnerable to revolutionary destabilization than full autocracies or full (consolidated) democracies. We also point to a strong positive association between the weakening of autocracies and the risks of revolutionary destabilization that exist among f…
The Fifth Generation of Revolution Studies. Part I: When, Why, and How Did It Emerge
There are grounds for claiming that a new (‘fifth’) generation of revolution studies has emerged in the 21st century. It can be noted that the characteristics of this generation are as follows: a tendency toward a macro-level outlook, encompassing both historical and geographical dimensions, coupled with a propensity toward a systemic approach; study of distinct types of revolutionary processes, such as Mark Beissinger’s ‘urban civic revolutions’…
Subjective Wellbeing and Revolutionary Destabilization. A Quantitative Analysis
The subjective well-being of the population - or the 'level of happiness' - is a popular topic for scientific research and socio-political discussions both domestically and internationally. In this regard, a direction of research is gaining traction; its proponents consider the level of happiness to be a predictor of the current socio-political stability. An analysis of the literature revealed that, despite the abundance of works on the topic of …
Education and Revolutions (Why Do Some Revolutions Take up Arms while Others Do Not?)
Despite the existence of numerous hypotheses about what factors influence protesters’ choice of armed vs. unarmed struggle tactics, today there is a dearth of global, quantitative cross-national studies aimed at identifying the reasons why revolutions take a violent vs. a non-violent form. The article attempts to fill one of the gaps existing here by conducting a crossnational analysis of the relationship between education and the type of revolut…
Demographic Factors as Predictors of Revolutionary Situations: Experience in Quantitative Analysis
Although there are plenty of quantitative cross-national analyses on the influence of population age structure on revolutionary risks, there are currently not enough studies that examine its impact on the risks of armed and unarmed revolutions taken separately. Assuming that the dependence of potential political destabilization on the median age will differ for armed and unarmed revolutions, we propose the following hypothesis. High median age an…
Love, Marriage, Family Organization and the Puzzle of Neolocality in Non-Industrial Societies: A Cross-Cultural Study
In this paper we answer the question, “What features of family organization promote romantic love as a basis for marriage in non-industrial societies?” We also directly address Rosenblatt’s findings and those of a follow up study by Lee and Stone that, counterintuitively, show non-neolocality rather than neolocality to be correlated with love as a basis for marriage. Ember and Levinson and even Lee and Stone have thought this finding to be puzzli…
Machine Learning for Ranking Factors of Global and Regional Protest Destabilization with a Special Focus on Afrasian Instability Macrozone
Based on the experience of previous studies, the authors use machine learning methods at two levels for evaluating predictors of instability. First, they analyze the factors that lead to instability in general; second, they focus on the factors that influence the intensity of instability. Their analysis relies on data on mass protest destabilization. The system for assessing predictors of nonviolent destabilization is modernized and a two-level m…
Economic Origins of Revolutions: The Link between GDP and the Risk of Revolutionary Events
The recent years have witnessed numerous studies that analyze the influence of different factors on the probability of revolutionary events. At the same time, an important set of modernization variables (GDP, urbanization, education, democratization) still remains understudied. Moreover, the results of the contemporary quantitative studies show significant discrepancies in how wealth (operationalized through GDP per capita) affects the risks of r…
Education and Revolutionary Destabilization Risks: A Quantitative Analysis
There is a significant number of theoretical studies linking education and socio-political destabilization. At the same time, there is an almost complete absence of global quantitative cross-national studies analyzing the impact of education on the risks of revolutionary uprisings. This research is aimed to fill the existing gap. The existing literature shows that education contributes to the accumulation of human capital, develops a culture of d…
Революционные события XXI века: Предварительный количественный анализ
Авторы изучают важные аспекты революционного процесса XXI века. Рассматриваются причины, по которым революционный процесс начала XXI столетия проходит довольно бурно, а также прогнозы, обещающие, что и в будущем он будет весьма активным; анализируются революционные тренды, в том числе особо тревожный – рост числа радикальных исламистских революционных выступлений. Все сказанное иллюстрируется статистическим анализом различного типа революций. Нас…
Students and protests: A quantitative cross-national analysis
Previous studies have found a positive relationship between the youth and the educated with protest number, but the form that these protests take needs further research. We argue that students are a unique group, acting neither as an educated nor a young population, and three possible mechanisms push students toward non-violent rather than violent forms of protest. By promoting values of tolerance, higher levels of human capital, and social mobil…
Education and Revolutions: Why do Revolutionary Uprisings Take Violent or Nonviolent Forms
Is there a relationship between education and the type of revolutionary action – violent or nonviolent? Past studies found a positive relationship between the education and nonviolence, but the influence that education produces on the form that revolution takes has not yet been explored. We show several possible mechanisms that push the educated population to choose nonviolent tactic: (1) education changes people’s preferences toward peaceful sol…
Revolutions and Democracy: Can Democracies Prevent Revolutionary Armed Violence
In recent years, the question of what form a revolutionary uprising will take - armed or unarmed - has been raised more often. This is because, as shown by numerous studies, revolutionary nonviolence can explain why an uprising fails or succeeds to lead to democracy. In the recent decades the likelihood of revolution being nonviolent appears to have significantly increased, but it is still not clear why this tendency is observed. Moreover, there …
When Jobs Are Scarce”: The Attitudes to Female Labor in Islamic and Arab Cultures in Comparative Perspective
This study examines the influence of Islam on attitudes toward female labor force participation as reflected in responses to the World Values Survey ( WVS ) question: “When jobs are scarce, should men have more right to a job than women?”. The authors expect that respondents in Islamic (Muslim-majority) countries will have more positive attitudes toward this statement than respondents in non-Islamic countries. They test the hypothesis that the hi…
The Fifth Generation of Revolution Studies. Part I: When, Why, and How Did It Emerge
There are grounds for claiming that a new (‘fifth’) generation of revolution studies has emerged in the 21st century. It can be noted that the characteristics of this generation are as follows: a tendency toward a macro-level outlook, encompassing both historical and geographical dimensions, coupled with a propensity toward a systemic approach; study of distinct types of revolutionary processes, such as Mark Beissinger’s ‘urban civic revolutions’…
The Fifth Generation of Revolution Studies. A Systematic Review
In the 21st century, a fifth generation of revolution studies has emerged, characterized by several key features. It is distinguished by macro and systemic approaches to analyzing revolutionary processes, the study of specific trends (such as urban civic revolutions) and contemporary factors, including the role of information technologies. Researchers of this generation pay special attention to revolutionary waves and their diffusion, clearly dif…
The Fifth Generation of Revolution Studies. Part II: A Systematic Review of Substantive Findings (Revolution Causes, Forms, and Waves)
The article is the first part of our systematic review of substantive findings of fifth-generation revolution studies, building on the examination of the emergence and characteristics of this generation contained in the first article in the series. Our systematic review is divided into two parts. This first part specifically considers the following areas of research explored by fifth-generation scholars: First, we examine the factors and causes o…
The Fifth Generation of Revolution Studies. Part III: A Systematic Review of Substantive Findings (Repression, Success, and Outcomes of Revolutions)
This article is the final part of our systematic review of the substantive findings of fifth-generation revolution studies, building on the examination of the emergence and characteristics of this generation contained in the first article in the series. Our systematic review is divided into two parts. In this second and final part, the following areas of research explored by fifth-generation scholars will be specifically considered: (1) impact of…
Why Do Revolutions Tend to Become Less Violent: Some Explanations of the Global Trend
Revolutionary events are increasingly likely to take unarmed forms. This trend has been observed over the past 120 years as a result of the World System transformation, wherein most societies increased their GDP per capita, experienced the spread of modern formal education, and moved from predominantly rural and very young populations to mostly urban and older ones, whereas autocratic regimes in most societies gave way to anocratic and democratic…
All Crises are Unhappy in Their Own Way: The Role of Societal Instability in Shaping the Past
Societal “crises” are periods of turmoil and destabilization in sociocultural, political, economic, and other systems, often accompanied by violent power struggles, and sometimes significant changes in social structure. The extensive literature analyzing societal crises has concentrated on a relatively small sample of well-known cases (such as the fall of the Roman Empire), emphasizing separate aspects of these events as potential causes or consi…
Revolution and Democracy in the Twenty-First Century
In this article, we analyze an inverted U-shaped relationship between the type of regime (on the autocracy-democracy scale) and the risks of revolutionary destabilization. Anocracies tend to be more vulnerable to revolutionary destabilization than full autocracies or full (consolidated) democracies. We also point to a strong positive association between the weakening of autocracies and the risks of revolutionary destabilization that exist among f…
Factors of Nonviolent Revolutions’ Onset: A Comprehensive Analysis
One of the most important trends noted by researchers in the revolutionary events of recent decades is the rapid increase in the share of unarmed revolutionary uprisings and, accordingly, a decrease in the share of armed revolutionary insurgencies. The study of this trend is of great importance. This work continues previous research on unarmed revolutionary destabilization. Unlike in past studies, the authors here have significantly expanded the …
Impact of Economic Inequality on the Probability of Revolutionary Events: The World Experience from 1995 to 2021
2000 . ( 2007 .) ( )
Alloparenting as a Factor of the Persistently High Fertility Rates in Central Africa
The high fertility rates that persist in Tropical African countries are a kind of anomaly, since other developing countries had lower fertility rates when having similar socio-economic development indicators — phenomenon dubbed “African pronatalism” in Western demography. Meanwhile, the lag in fertility transition contributed greatly to Africa's economic backwardness since independence, which is why the study of “African pronatalism”, the nature …
Economic development and revolutions. A cross-national investigation
In the field of civil war studies, there is a consensus that the risk of war decreases as income increases. Nevertheless, such consensus has not been reached in the field of civil resistance and unarmed revolutions. This paper proposes a curvilinear framework positing two opposite trends in economic development. On the one hand, it increases the state resources for preventing illegal displacement and makes revolt costly for rebels. Conversely, it…
Sociology (12 works) · Political science (11 works) · Economics (9 works) · Law (8 works) · World Systems and Global Transformations (8 works) · Demography (7 works) · Political Conflict and Governance (7 works) · Politics (7 works) · Democracy (6 works) · Law (6 works)