Alvin M Saperstein
Biographic Data
| ID | 1296422 |
|---|---|
| NAME | Alvin M Saperstein |
| GIVEN NAMES | Alvin M |
| FAMILY NAME | Saperstein |
| SIGNATURE | SAPERSTEIN A M |
| AFFILIATIONS | Wayne State University |
| VERIFIED | No |
| TOTAL WORKS | 12 |
| TOTAL CITATIONS | 43 |
| AUTHOR COUNT | 12 |
| EDITOR COUNT | 0 |
| FIRST PUBLICATION YEAR | 1987 |
| LATEST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2015 |
| H-INDEX | 3 |
A dynamic model of suicide terrorism and political mobilization
This study considers the problem of suicide terrorism, government counterterror responses, and the mobilization of recruits in support of the contending parties. A model is developed that enables predictions as to what factors should be emphasized or de-emphasized by the forces protecting society. The article presents a linear mathematical analysis of the logical interrelationships involved in the confrontation and embeds the study within the fra…
The Enemy of My Enemy Is My Friend” Is the Enemy: Dealing with the War-Provoking Rules of Intent
A set of rules often invoked to explain or justify the evolution of intentions and the consequent behavior of competitive systems consists of the following: 1. The friend of my friend is my friend. 2. The friend of my enemy is my enemy. 3. The enemy of my friend is my enemy. 4. The enemy of my enemy is my friend. These rules have been modeled as a set of nonlinear, coupled differential equations from which predictions can be derived as to eventua…
From Our Readers
Dimensions of arms control verification: The cold war experience and the post‐cold war era
Chaos As A Tool For Exploring Questions of International Security
Mathematical models-static or dynamic-of international systems arc often used to predict outcomes of specific policy choices. The focus of this paper is not such predictions themselves but the question of whether or not such predictability is meaningful. Non-predictability in a deterministic dynamic model is usually referred to as “chaos” and is used in this paper as a paradigm for crisis instability and the possible outbreak of war in a system o…
Mathematical modeling of the effects of ?capability? and ?intent? on the stability of a competitive international system
Alliance Building versus Independent Action: A Nonlinear Modeling Approach to Comparative International Stability
An important international security question is whether nations in an anarchic competitive world system are more likely to ensure their security by pursuing policies of complete independence or of alliance building. The question is addressed using the paradigm that “strong chaos” in an arms-race model is equivalent to crisis instability and war in the international system being modeled. Nonlinear recursion relation models of competitive arms proc…
The “Long Peace: Result of a Bipolar Competitive World
One of the reasons advanced for the absence of a major war between the two superpowers during the forty-five years of their enmity since World War II is that the world system in which they functioned was essentially bipolar and hence, presumably, inherently more stable than previous multipolar worlds. Given the recent decline in the power of the U.S. and the U.S.S.R. relative to the rest of the world, it is important to test the validity of this …
Transcending Nuclear War Education
Provoking a Discussion on Non-provocative Defense
Currently, there is considerable intellectual exploration of the concept of 'non-provocative defense' (see, e.g., Saperstein 1987). A recent bibliography on the subject (Moller 1987a) includes 53 pages of relevant titles, listed in alphabetical order. One reason, of course, for these discussions, is the increased interest in the possibility of basing the military aspects of European security upon 'conventional' rather than nuclear weapons (e.g., …
A Nonlinear Dynamical Model of the Impact of SDI on the Arms Race
We present numerical results from a nonlinear dynamical model with discrete time that simulates the implications of ballistic missile defense systems (SDI) on the arms race between the two superpowers. As dynamical variables we introduce the number of intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), antiballistic missile systems (ABMs) and anti-ABM systems such as antisatellite weapons (ASAT) of each of the two sides. The time evolution of these syst…
An Enhanced Non-Provocative Defense in Europe: Attrition of Aggressive Armored Forces by Local Militias
The two part system — NATO and WTO — is presently locked into a mutually provoked escalating arms race. The result is economically and socially wasteful and a mortal threat to both as well as the rest of the earth's inhabitants. Given the mutual distrust, a form of defense must be found which is both non-provocative and effective and which can be established unilaterally, if necessary. Such a possible scheme for the 'tinder-box' region of Central…
The “Long Peace: Result of a Bipolar Competitive World
One of the reasons advanced for the absence of a major war between the two superpowers during the forty-five years of their enmity since World War II is that the world system in which they functioned was essentially bipolar and hence, presumably, inherently more stable than previous multipolar worlds. Given the recent decline in the power of the U.S. and the U.S.S.R. relative to the rest of the world, it is important to test the validity of this …
A Nonlinear Dynamical Model of the Impact of SDI on the Arms Race
We present numerical results from a nonlinear dynamical model with discrete time that simulates the implications of ballistic missile defense systems (SDI) on the arms race between the two superpowers. As dynamical variables we introduce the number of intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), antiballistic missile systems (ABMs) and anti-ABM systems such as antisatellite weapons (ASAT) of each of the two sides. The time evolution of these syst…
The Enemy of My Enemy Is My Friend” Is the Enemy: Dealing with the War-Provoking Rules of Intent
A set of rules often invoked to explain or justify the evolution of intentions and the consequent behavior of competitive systems consists of the following: 1. The friend of my friend is my friend. 2. The friend of my enemy is my enemy. 3. The enemy of my friend is my enemy. 4. The enemy of my enemy is my friend. These rules have been modeled as a set of nonlinear, coupled differential equations from which predictions can be derived as to eventua…
Alliance Building versus Independent Action: A Nonlinear Modeling Approach to Comparative International Stability
An important international security question is whether nations in an anarchic competitive world system are more likely to ensure their security by pursuing policies of complete independence or of alliance building. The question is addressed using the paradigm that “strong chaos” in an arms-race model is equivalent to crisis instability and war in the international system being modeled. Nonlinear recursion relation models of competitive arms proc…
A dynamic model of suicide terrorism and political mobilization
This study considers the problem of suicide terrorism, government counterterror responses, and the mobilization of recruits in support of the contending parties. A model is developed that enables predictions as to what factors should be emphasized or de-emphasized by the forces protecting society. The article presents a linear mathematical analysis of the logical interrelationships involved in the confrontation and embeds the study within the fra…
An Enhanced Non-Provocative Defense in Europe: Attrition of Aggressive Armored Forces by Local Militias
The two part system — NATO and WTO — is presently locked into a mutually provoked escalating arms race. The result is economically and socially wasteful and a mortal threat to both as well as the rest of the earth's inhabitants. Given the mutual distrust, a form of defense must be found which is both non-provocative and effective and which can be established unilaterally, if necessary. Such a possible scheme for the 'tinder-box' region of Central…
An Enhanced Non-Provocative Defense in Europe: Attrition of Aggressive Armored Forces by Local Militias
The two part system — NATO and WTO — is presently locked into a mutually provoked escalating arms race. The result is economically and socially wasteful and a mortal threat to both as well as the rest of the earth's inhabitants. Given the mutual distrust, a form of defense must be found which is both non-provocative and effective and which can be established unilaterally, if necessary. Such a possible scheme for the 'tinder-box' region of Central…
Provoking a Discussion on Non-provocative Defense
Currently, there is considerable intellectual exploration of the concept of 'non-provocative defense' (see, e.g., Saperstein 1987). A recent bibliography on the subject (Moller 1987a) includes 53 pages of relevant titles, listed in alphabetical order. One reason, of course, for these discussions, is the increased interest in the possibility of basing the military aspects of European security upon 'conventional' rather than nuclear weapons (e.g., …
A Nonlinear Dynamical Model of the Impact of SDI on the Arms Race
We present numerical results from a nonlinear dynamical model with discrete time that simulates the implications of ballistic missile defense systems (SDI) on the arms race between the two superpowers. As dynamical variables we introduce the number of intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), antiballistic missile systems (ABMs) and anti-ABM systems such as antisatellite weapons (ASAT) of each of the two sides. The time evolution of these syst…
Transcending Nuclear War Education
The “Long Peace: Result of a Bipolar Competitive World
One of the reasons advanced for the absence of a major war between the two superpowers during the forty-five years of their enmity since World War II is that the world system in which they functioned was essentially bipolar and hence, presumably, inherently more stable than previous multipolar worlds. Given the recent decline in the power of the U.S. and the U.S.S.R. relative to the rest of the world, it is important to test the validity of this …
Alliance Building versus Independent Action: A Nonlinear Modeling Approach to Comparative International Stability
An important international security question is whether nations in an anarchic competitive world system are more likely to ensure their security by pursuing policies of complete independence or of alliance building. The question is addressed using the paradigm that “strong chaos” in an arms-race model is equivalent to crisis instability and war in the international system being modeled. Nonlinear recursion relation models of competitive arms proc…
Dimensions of arms control verification: The cold war experience and the post‐cold war era
Chaos As A Tool For Exploring Questions of International Security
Mathematical models-static or dynamic-of international systems arc often used to predict outcomes of specific policy choices. The focus of this paper is not such predictions themselves but the question of whether or not such predictability is meaningful. Non-predictability in a deterministic dynamic model is usually referred to as “chaos” and is used in this paper as a paradigm for crisis instability and the possible outbreak of war in a system o…
Mathematical modeling of the effects of ?capability? and ?intent? on the stability of a competitive international system
From Our Readers
The Enemy of My Enemy Is My Friend” Is the Enemy: Dealing with the War-Provoking Rules of Intent
A set of rules often invoked to explain or justify the evolution of intentions and the consequent behavior of competitive systems consists of the following: 1. The friend of my friend is my friend. 2. The friend of my enemy is my enemy. 3. The enemy of my friend is my enemy. 4. The enemy of my enemy is my friend. These rules have been modeled as a set of nonlinear, coupled differential equations from which predictions can be derived as to eventua…
A dynamic model of suicide terrorism and political mobilization
This study considers the problem of suicide terrorism, government counterterror responses, and the mobilization of recruits in support of the contending parties. A model is developed that enables predictions as to what factors should be emphasized or de-emphasized by the forces protecting society. The article presents a linear mathematical analysis of the logical interrelationships involved in the confrontation and embeds the study within the fra…
Political science (10 works) · Law (8 works) · Computer Science (7 works) · Law (6 works) · Mathematics (6 works) · Psychology (6 works) · Economics (5 works) · Politics (5 works) · Sociology (5 works) · Engineering (4 works)