Justin S Mankin
Biographic Data
| ID | 1340587 |
|---|---|
| NAME | Justin S Mankin |
| GIVEN NAMES | Justin S |
| FAMILY NAME | Mankin |
| SIGNATURE | MANKIN J S |
| AFFILIATIONS | Dartmouth College |
| ORCID | 0000-0003-2520-4555 |
| VERIFIED | Yes |
| TOTAL WORKS | 10 |
| TOTAL CITATIONS | 13 |
| AUTHOR COUNT | 10 |
| EDITOR COUNT | 0 |
| FIRST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2015 |
| LATEST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2022 |
| H-INDEX | 1 |
Crop-climate feedbacks boost US maize and soy yields
US maize and soy production have increased rapidly since the mid-20th century. While global warming has raised temperatures in most regions over this time period, trends in extreme heat have been smaller over US croplands, reducing crop-damaging high temperatures and benefiting maize and soy yields. Here we show that agricultural intensification has created a crop-climate feedback in which increased crop production cools local climate, further ra…
Rapid Land-Cover and Land-Use Change in the Indo-Malaysian Region over the Last Thirty-Four Years Based on AVHRR NDVI Data
The Indo-Malaysian region is a hot spot of rapid land-cover and land-use change (LCLUC) with little consensus about the rates and magnitudes of such change. Here we use temporal convolutional neural networks (TempCNNs) to generate a spatiotemporally consistent LCLUC data set for nearly thirty-five years (1982–2015), validated against two reference data sets with over 80 percent accuracy, better than other LCLUC products for the region. Our result…
CO 2 -plant effects do not account for the gap between dryness indices and projected dryness impacts in CMIP6 or CMIP5
Recent studies have found that terrestrial dryness indices like the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), and Aridity Index calculated from future climate model projections are mostly negative, implying a drying land surface with warming. Yet, the same models’ future runoff and bulk soil moisture projections instead show regional signals of varying sign, and their vegetation projections …
Thermal power generation is disadvantaged in a warming world
Thermal power plants use fossil fuels or nuclear material to generate most of the world’s electricity. On hot days, when electricity demand peaks, the ambient air and water used to cool these plants can become too warm, forcing operators to curtail electricity output. Using all available observed daily-scale plant outage data, we estimate the observed dependence of thermal plant curtailment on temperature and runoff and use this relationship to q…
Nonlinear increases in extreme temperatures paradoxically dampen increases in extreme humid-heat
Nonlinear increases in warm season temperatures are projected for many regions, a phenomenon we show to be associated with relative surface drying. However, negative human health impacts are physiologically linked to combinations of high temperatures and high humidity. Since the amplified warming and drying are concurrent, the net effect on humid-heat, as measured by the wet bulb temperature ( T W ), is uncertain. We demonstrate that globally, on…
Assessing present and future coastal moderation of extreme heat in the Eastern United States
Climate models suggest a rapid increase of extremely hot days in coming decades. Cool marine air currently ventilates extreme heat in populous coastal regions, diminishing its impacts, but how well climate models capture this effect is uncertain. Here we conduct a comprehensive observational analysis of coastal extreme-heat ventilation—its length scale, magnitude, and regional patterns—and evaluate two ensembles of downscaled global climate model…
Seasonal tropospheric cooling in Northeast China associated with cropland expansion
Large-scale agricultural expansion can influence near-surface climate by altering surface energy fluxes, water, and albedo. It is less clear whether such effects extend through the full troposphere and how such effects vary in time. Here we use a novel dataset documenting the massive land use and land cover change due to agricultural expansion in Northeast China from 1982 to 2010 to assess how such expansion has influenced climate over the full t…
Is Temperature Exogenous? The Impact of Civil Conflict on the Instrumental Climate Record in Sub‐Saharan Africa
Research into the effects of climate on political and economic outcomes assumes that short‐term variation in weather is exogenous to the phenomena being studied. However, weather data are derived from stations operated by national governments, whose political capacity and stability affect the quality and continuity of coverage. We show that civil conflict risk in sub‐Saharan Africa is negatively correlated with the number and density of weather s…
Influence of internal variability on population exposure to hydroclimatic changes
Future freshwater supply, human water demand, and people's exposure to water stress are subject to multiple sources of uncertainty, including unknown future pathways of fossil fuel and water consumption, and 'irreducible' uncertainty arising from internal climate system variability. Such internal variability can conceal forced hydroclimatic changes on multi-decadal timescales and near-continental spatial-scales. Using three projections of populat…
The potential for snow to supply human water demand in the present and future
Runoff from snowmelt is regarded as a vital water source for people and ecosystems throughout the Northern Hemisphere (NH). Numerous studies point to the threat global warming poses to the timing and magnitude of snow accumulation and melt. But analyses focused on snow supply do not show where changes to snowmelt runoff are likely to present the most pressing adaptation challenges, given sub-annual patterns of human water consumption and water av…
Is Temperature Exogenous? The Impact of Civil Conflict on the Instrumental Climate Record in Sub‐Saharan Africa
Research into the effects of climate on political and economic outcomes assumes that short‐term variation in weather is exogenous to the phenomena being studied. However, weather data are derived from stations operated by national governments, whose political capacity and stability affect the quality and continuity of coverage. We show that civil conflict risk in sub‐Saharan Africa is negatively correlated with the number and density of weather s…
Rapid Land-Cover and Land-Use Change in the Indo-Malaysian Region over the Last Thirty-Four Years Based on AVHRR NDVI Data
The Indo-Malaysian region is a hot spot of rapid land-cover and land-use change (LCLUC) with little consensus about the rates and magnitudes of such change. Here we use temporal convolutional neural networks (TempCNNs) to generate a spatiotemporally consistent LCLUC data set for nearly thirty-five years (1982–2015), validated against two reference data sets with over 80 percent accuracy, better than other LCLUC products for the region. Our result…
The potential for snow to supply human water demand in the present and future
Runoff from snowmelt is regarded as a vital water source for people and ecosystems throughout the Northern Hemisphere (NH). Numerous studies point to the threat global warming poses to the timing and magnitude of snow accumulation and melt. But analyses focused on snow supply do not show where changes to snowmelt runoff are likely to present the most pressing adaptation challenges, given sub-annual patterns of human water consumption and water av…
Influence of internal variability on population exposure to hydroclimatic changes
Future freshwater supply, human water demand, and people's exposure to water stress are subject to multiple sources of uncertainty, including unknown future pathways of fossil fuel and water consumption, and 'irreducible' uncertainty arising from internal climate system variability. Such internal variability can conceal forced hydroclimatic changes on multi-decadal timescales and near-continental spatial-scales. Using three projections of populat…
Nonlinear increases in extreme temperatures paradoxically dampen increases in extreme humid-heat
Nonlinear increases in warm season temperatures are projected for many regions, a phenomenon we show to be associated with relative surface drying. However, negative human health impacts are physiologically linked to combinations of high temperatures and high humidity. Since the amplified warming and drying are concurrent, the net effect on humid-heat, as measured by the wet bulb temperature ( T W ), is uncertain. We demonstrate that globally, on…
Assessing present and future coastal moderation of extreme heat in the Eastern United States
Climate models suggest a rapid increase of extremely hot days in coming decades. Cool marine air currently ventilates extreme heat in populous coastal regions, diminishing its impacts, but how well climate models capture this effect is uncertain. Here we conduct a comprehensive observational analysis of coastal extreme-heat ventilation—its length scale, magnitude, and regional patterns—and evaluate two ensembles of downscaled global climate model…
Seasonal tropospheric cooling in Northeast China associated with cropland expansion
Large-scale agricultural expansion can influence near-surface climate by altering surface energy fluxes, water, and albedo. It is less clear whether such effects extend through the full troposphere and how such effects vary in time. Here we use a novel dataset documenting the massive land use and land cover change due to agricultural expansion in Northeast China from 1982 to 2010 to assess how such expansion has influenced climate over the full t…
Is Temperature Exogenous? The Impact of Civil Conflict on the Instrumental Climate Record in Sub‐Saharan Africa
Research into the effects of climate on political and economic outcomes assumes that short‐term variation in weather is exogenous to the phenomena being studied. However, weather data are derived from stations operated by national governments, whose political capacity and stability affect the quality and continuity of coverage. We show that civil conflict risk in sub‐Saharan Africa is negatively correlated with the number and density of weather s…
Thermal power generation is disadvantaged in a warming world
Thermal power plants use fossil fuels or nuclear material to generate most of the world’s electricity. On hot days, when electricity demand peaks, the ambient air and water used to cool these plants can become too warm, forcing operators to curtail electricity output. Using all available observed daily-scale plant outage data, we estimate the observed dependence of thermal plant curtailment on temperature and runoff and use this relationship to q…
CO 2 -plant effects do not account for the gap between dryness indices and projected dryness impacts in CMIP6 or CMIP5
Recent studies have found that terrestrial dryness indices like the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), and Aridity Index calculated from future climate model projections are mostly negative, implying a drying land surface with warming. Yet, the same models’ future runoff and bulk soil moisture projections instead show regional signals of varying sign, and their vegetation projections …
Crop-climate feedbacks boost US maize and soy yields
US maize and soy production have increased rapidly since the mid-20th century. While global warming has raised temperatures in most regions over this time period, trends in extreme heat have been smaller over US croplands, reducing crop-damaging high temperatures and benefiting maize and soy yields. Here we show that agricultural intensification has created a crop-climate feedback in which increased crop production cools local climate, further ra…
Rapid Land-Cover and Land-Use Change in the Indo-Malaysian Region over the Last Thirty-Four Years Based on AVHRR NDVI Data
The Indo-Malaysian region is a hot spot of rapid land-cover and land-use change (LCLUC) with little consensus about the rates and magnitudes of such change. Here we use temporal convolutional neural networks (TempCNNs) to generate a spatiotemporally consistent LCLUC data set for nearly thirty-five years (1982–2015), validated against two reference data sets with over 80 percent accuracy, better than other LCLUC products for the region. Our result…
Environmental Science (10 works) · Climate change (8 works) · Climatology (8 works) · Geography (8 works) · Geology (8 works) · Climate variability and models (6 works) · Ecology (5 works) · Meteorology (4 works) · Atmospheric sciences (3 works) · Climate model (3 works)