James Raymer
Biographic Data
| ID | 135678 |
|---|---|
| NAME | James Raymer |
| GIVEN NAMES | James |
| FAMILY NAME | Raymer |
| SIGNATURE | RAYMER J |
| AFFILIATIONS | Australian National University |
| ORCID | 0000-0001-6588-8985 |
| VERIFIED | Yes |
| TOTAL WORKS | 50 |
| TOTAL CITATIONS | 241 |
| AUTHOR COUNT | 49 |
| EDITOR COUNT | 1 |
| FIRST PUBLICATION YEAR | 1998 |
| LATEST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2026 |
| H-INDEX | 9 |
A review and evaluation of internal migration forecasting models
Recognizing that internal migration is an important source of error in population projections, we evaluate 21 forecasts from five classes of methods: (1) average of the most recent flows; (2) time-series econometric models with and without external factors; (3) machine-learning-based gradient boosting models; (4) multiplicative component and gravity-type models; and (5) average of all forecasts. We forecast bilateral interstate migration flows in…
The Demographic and Social Construction of Super‐Diversity
The concept of super‐diversity posits that waves of immigration over several decades expand population heterogeneity on multiple social, demographic, economic, political, and legal dimensions, creating a mosaic of social and cultural life in immigrant‐rich spaces. This concept raises important demographic and sociological questions as to how this has happened, particularly in view of the long history of assimilation and integration theories, in w…
Multiregional Population Forecasting: A Unifying Probabilistic Approach for Modelling the Components of Change
In this article, we extend the multiregional cohort-component population projection model developed by Andrei Rogers and colleagues in the 1960s and 1970s to be fully probabilistic. The projections are based on forecasts of age-, sex- and region-specific fertility, mortality, interregional migration, immigration and emigration. The approach is unified by forecasting each demographic component of change by using a combination of log-linear models …
Can removalist data be used to estimate internal migration in Australia
Changes in International Migration to and from Australia During the Covid-19 Pandemic
The COVID-19 pandemic slowed down international migration around the world, with many countries closing their international borders for a prolonged period of time. Although there are studies emerging that analyse the impact of COVID-19 and border control measures, more detailed migration flow data have been largely absent. In this research note, we examine changes to the patterns of immigration and emigration in Australia during the pandemic to f…
The contributions of immigration to demographic change across cities and regions in Australia
In the context of low fertility and population ageing, many countries look to immigration to address labour shortages and reduce the effects of population decline. While the short-term effects of immigration are relatively well understood, the long-term demographic consequences of high and sustained immigration are still undetermined. In this paper, we highlight the major contributions that immigration has made to population change across 11 geog…
Modelling the age and sex profiles of net international migration
BACKGROUNDMany national statistical offices and international agencies use age and sex profiles of net migration as inputs into demographic accounting models for population estimation and projection.Commonly used residual methods for inferring these profiles have proven inadequate due to errors in the measures of populations, births, and deaths. OBJECTIVEWe test and apply a new methodology to infer the age and sex profiles of net international mi…
Intra‐urban residential mobility and segregation of foreigners in Rome
This research studies the residential mobility of Italians and foreigners in Rome from 2002 to 2019. We examine the differences in residential mobility patterns for (1) Italians and foreigners, (2) foreign migrants by selected country of origin, and (3) the effect of intra‐urban mobility on residential segregation. Log‐linear models and segregation indexes are used to analyze unpublished microdata on residential mobility by neighbourhood from the…
Measuring international migration in Asia
The benefits of having consistent and complete information on migration flows within, from and to Asia are numerous and worth the investment. They include a much better understanding of how migrants are responding to economic developments across Asia and how they are transforming both origin and destination societies. The challenges to producing international migration flow statistics in Asia, however, are immense. Hardly any countries provide da…
The estimation of age and sex profiles for international migration amongst countries in the Asia‐Pacific region
Information on the age and sex patterns of international migration occurring amongst countries in the Asia‐Pacific region is important for researchers and policymakers to understand the contributions of migration towards demographic, economic and social changes. However, despite its importance, statistics on the age and sex patterns are largely absent and, where they do exist, there are considerable differences in measurement and data collection …
The School Transition Estimation and Projection (STEP) model: A flexible framework for analysing and projecting school enrolments
Accurate school‐level enrolment predictions are critical for local government and planners to allocate education‐related resources and ensure necessary school infrastructure is provided. Although individual‐level school census data are increasingly available for education departments, there is little evidence that these data are being used to improve school enrolment projections. This paper fills this methodological void by developing a School Tr…
Estimating international migration flows for the Asia-Pacific region: Application of a generation–distribution model
Flows of international migration are needed in the Asia-Pacific region to understand the patterns and corresponding effects on demographic, social, and economic change across sending and receiving countries. A major challenge to this understanding is that nearly all of the countries in this region do not gather or produce statistics on flows of international migration. The only information that are widely available represent immigrant population …
Estimating International Migration Flows for Pacific Island Countries: A Research Brief
International migration is an important source of population change and economic development for Pacific Island countries. Migration from the Pacific Island region contributes to labour recruitment in countries like Australia, New Zealand and the United States. However, there are substantial gaps in the understanding of overall migration patterns in this region, impeding the development of relevant policies. In the absence of good migration stati…
Recent Trends in Immigrant Fertility in Australia
The dynamic complexity of Australia’s immigration and emigration flows from 1981 to 2016
The Push and Pull Factors Contributing Towards Asylum Migration from Developing Countries to Developed Countries Since 2000
In the early 2000s, asylum seekers went primarily to destinations their countries had historical relationships, including former colonial ties, common languages and ethnic networks. Since the mid‐2000s, there has been a shift towards asylum seekers arriving in destinations without such relationships. In this study, we apply spatial interaction models to understand the factors contributing to recent asylum migration from developing countries to de…
Projecting future utilization of medically assisted fertility treatments
This study estimates the future utilization of medically assisted fertility treatments in Australia, focusing on assisted reproductive technologies (ARTs), intrauterine insemination (IUI), and ovulation induction. A multistate cohort component population projection model is used to determine future fertility rates from 2016 to 2026 by age and education level. These are combined with information on recent trends in use and success rates to indirec…
Driving factors of Asian international migration flows
Migration from, to and within Asia are believed to capture many of the largest flows in the world yet very little is known about the specific patterns and factors contributing to them. In this paper, utilising recent estimates of five-year bilateral migration flows for all countries in the world, we focus on understanding how demographic, geographic and socio-economic factors are related to the size of bilateral flows in Asia. We conduct our anal…
Overcoming data limitations to obtain migration flows for Asean countries
This paper seeks to provide a better understanding of international migration among the ten countries constituting the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). In reviewing the data, we identify several major issues concerning the availability of data, consistency in definitions of migration, and a general absence of many of the important migration categories needed to understand the movements. We propose an adaptation of the multiplicativ…
Estimating multiregional survivorship probabilities for sparse data: An application to immigrant populations in Australia, 1981-2011
Over 28% of the Australian population is born overseas. Understanding where immigrants have settled, and the relative attractiveness of these places in relation to others, is important for understanding the contributions of immigration to society and subna
Spatial demography: A unifying core and agenda for further research
With increases in the availability of geo‐referenced data, there has been a push for developing better methods to study demographic processes across space. This paper reviews the recent developments in “spatial demography” and argues that an important aspect has been neglected, namely, the focus on the dynamics and interactions of population change across space, which is an area that should be central to the field. Frameworks for analysing spatia…
Subsequent Migration of Immigrants Within Australia, 1981–2016
Australia is a major immigration country and immigrants currently represent around 28% of the total population. The aim of this research is to understand the long-term consequences of this immigration and, particularly, how migrants respond to opportunities within the country after arriving through the process of subsequent (internal) migration. The focus is on major immigrant groups in Australia, including persons born in the United Kingdom, New…
The Sources and Diversity of Immigrant Population Change in Australia, 1981–2011
Australia has one of the largest percentages of immigrant populations in the developed world with a highly regulated system of immigration control and regular censuses to track their changes over time. However, the ability to explain the population change through the demographic components of immigration, emigration, and death by age and sex is complicated because of differences in measurement and sources of information. In this article, we explo…
Applying and testing a forecasting model for age and sex patterns of immigration and emigration
International migration flows are considered the most difficult demographic component to forecast and, for that reason, models for forecasting migration are few and relatively undeveloped. This is worrying because, in developed societies, international migration is often the largest component of population growth and most influential in debates about societal and economic change. In this paper, we address the need for better forecasting models of…
Migration from New-Accession Countries and Duration Expectancy in the EU-15: 2002–2008
Overcoming the Problems of Inconsistent International Migration data: A New Method Applied to Flows in Europe
Due to differences in definitions and measurement methods, cross-country comparisons of international migration patterns are difficult and confusing. Emigration numbers reported by sending countries tend to differ from the corresponding immigration numbers reported by receiving countries. In this paper, a methodology is presented to achieve harmonised estimates of migration flows benchmarked to a specific definition of duration. This methodology …
Migration Systems in Europe: Evidence From Harmonized Flow Data
Empirical tests of migration systems theory require consistent and complete data on international migration flows. Publicly available data, however, represent an inconsistent and incomplete set of measurements obtained from a variety of national data collection systems. We overcome these obstacles by standardizing the available migration reports of sending and receiving countries in the European Union and Norway each year from 2003–2007 and by es…
Describing migration spatial structure
Putting the Pieces of the Puzzle Together: Age and Sex-Specific Estimates of Migration amongst Countries in the EU/Efta, 2002–2007
Subsequent Migration of Immigrants Within Australia, 1981–2016
Australia is a major immigration country and immigrants currently represent around 28% of the total population. The aim of this research is to understand the long-term consequences of this immigration and, particularly, how migrants respond to opportunities within the country after arriving through the process of subsequent (internal) migration. The focus is on major immigrant groups in Australia, including persons born in the United Kingdom, New…
Bayesian Population Forecasting: Extending the Lee-Carter Method
In this article, we develop a fully integrated and dynamic Bayesian approach to forecast populations by age and sex. The approach embeds the Lee-Carter type models for forecasting the age patterns, with associated measures of uncertainty, of fertility, mortality, immigration, and emigration within a cohort projection model. The methodology may be adapted to handle different data types and sources of information. To illustrate, we analyze time ser…
New insights into the fertility patterns of recent Polish migrants in the United Kingdom
Immigration and the Regional Demographics of the Elderly Population in the United States
Little evidence exists of any significant breaks with past trends in internal elderly migration patterns. Reconstruction of elderly population changes between 1950 and 1990 reveals that the driving force behind the changes was net aging-in-place and not net migration. Finally, analysis of the possible population rejuvenating effects of immigration suggests that although its impact has contributed to lower elderly-to-worker dependency ratios, its …
Describing and projecting the age and spatial structures of interregional migration in Italy
A multiplicative component model is applied in this paper to present a simple, yet powerful, framework for analysing and projecting internal migration flows. The multiplicative components are useful for identifying important underlying structures in the migration patterns. To demonstrate, seven periods of age‐specific interregional migration in Italy (1970–1971 to 2000–2001) are analysed. This information is then used to project the age and spati…
The Push and Pull Factors Contributing Towards Asylum Migration from Developing Countries to Developed Countries Since 2000
In the early 2000s, asylum seekers went primarily to destinations their countries had historical relationships, including former colonial ties, common languages and ethnic networks. Since the mid‐2000s, there has been a shift towards asylum seekers arriving in destinations without such relationships. In this study, we apply spatial interaction models to understand the factors contributing to recent asylum migration from developing countries to de…
Spatial demography: A unifying core and agenda for further research
With increases in the availability of geo‐referenced data, there has been a push for developing better methods to study demographic processes across space. This paper reviews the recent developments in “spatial demography” and argues that an important aspect has been neglected, namely, the focus on the dynamics and interactions of population change across space, which is an area that should be central to the field. Frameworks for analysing spatia…
Using age and spatial flow structures in the indirect estimation of migration streams
This article outlines a formal model-based approach for inferring interregional age-specific migration streams in settings where such data are incomplete, inadequate, or unavailable. The estimation approach relies heavily on log-linear models, using them to impose some of the regularities exhibited by past age and spatial structures or to combine and borrow information drawn from other sources. The approach is illustrated using data from the 1990…
Projecting future utilization of medically assisted fertility treatments
This study estimates the future utilization of medically assisted fertility treatments in Australia, focusing on assisted reproductive technologies (ARTs), intrauterine insemination (IUI), and ovulation induction. A multistate cohort component population projection model is used to determine future fertility rates from 2016 to 2026 by age and education level. These are combined with information on recent trends in use and success rates to indirec…
The Sources and Diversity of Immigrant Population Change in Australia, 1981–2011
Australia has one of the largest percentages of immigrant populations in the developed world with a highly regulated system of immigration control and regular censuses to track their changes over time. However, the ability to explain the population change through the demographic components of immigration, emigration, and death by age and sex is complicated because of differences in measurement and sources of information. In this article, we explo…
The temporal dynamics of international migration in Europe: Recent trends
Descriptive studies of international migration typically rely on measures of migrant stocks and migration rates to assess migration patterns. In this paper, we propose a third alternative. Using harmonized data on age-specific migration flows from and
Ethnic migration between area groups in England and Wales
Minority ethnic populations in England and Wales have been increasing steadily as a share of the total population since the 1991 Census. In this paper, we are interested in how internal migration has changed as a possible consequence. Our analysis focuses on the movements between 12 area groups, as defined by the Office for National Statistics, and addresses the following three research questions: (1) how has internal migration in England and Wal…
Capturing the Age and Spatial Structures of Migration
In this paper we model the structures found in the level (generation) and allocation (distribution) components of age-specific and origin - destination-specific migration flows. For the examples, we examine the regional migration patterns in the USA for four periods: 1955 - 60, 1965 - 70, 1975 - 80, and 1985 - 90. The age and migration structures are identified over time by using the logit model for categorical data. Just as model schedules can b…
The dynamic complexity of Australia’s immigration and emigration flows from 1981 to 2016
Estimating multiregional survivorship probabilities for sparse data: An application to immigrant populations in Australia, 1981-2011
Over 28% of the Australian population is born overseas. Understanding where immigrants have settled, and the relative attractiveness of these places in relation to others, is important for understanding the contributions of immigration to society and subna
Applying and testing a forecasting model for age and sex patterns of immigration and emigration
International migration flows are considered the most difficult demographic component to forecast and, for that reason, models for forecasting migration are few and relatively undeveloped. This is worrying because, in developed societies, international migration is often the largest component of population growth and most influential in debates about societal and economic change. In this paper, we address the need for better forecasting models of…
Identification change and its effect on projections of the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population in Australia
Estimating international migration flows for the Asia-Pacific region: Application of a generation–distribution model
Flows of international migration are needed in the Asia-Pacific region to understand the patterns and corresponding effects on demographic, social, and economic change across sending and receiving countries. A major challenge to this understanding is that nearly all of the countries in this region do not gather or produce statistics on flows of international migration. The only information that are widely available represent immigrant population …
Driving factors of Asian international migration flows
Migration from, to and within Asia are believed to capture many of the largest flows in the world yet very little is known about the specific patterns and factors contributing to them. In this paper, utilising recent estimates of five-year bilateral migration flows for all countries in the world, we focus on understanding how demographic, geographic and socio-economic factors are related to the size of bilateral flows in Asia. We conduct our anal…
Migration from New-Accession Countries and Duration Expectancy in the EU-15: 2002–2008
Does Specification Matter? Experiments with Simple Multiregional Probabilistic Population Projections
Population projection models that introduce uncertainty are a growing subset of projection models in general. In this paper we focus on the importance of decisions made with regard to the model specifications adopted. We compare the forecasts and prediction intervals associated with four simple regional population projection models: an overall growth rate model, a component model with net migration, a component model with in-migration and out-mig…
The spatial focus of US interstate migration flows
Despite the widespread interest in the changing geographies of national migration regimes, it is somewhat remarkable that no widely accepted measure of the spatial concentration or focus exhibited by such geographies has emerged. We examine four of the most popular indices of inequality in this paper and contrast their performance as measures of spatial focus. Adopting the coefficient of variation as our preferred alternative, we go on to examine…
The spatial focus of US interstate migration flows
Despite the widespread interest in the changing geographies of national migration regimes, it is somewhat remarkable that no widely accepted measure of the spatial concentration or focus exhibited by such geographies has emerged. We examine four of the most popular indices of inequality in this paper and contrast their performance as measures of spatial focus. Adopting the coefficient of variation as our preferred alternative, we go on to examine…
Disaggregating the historical demographic sources of regional foreign-born and native-born population growth in the United States: A new method with applications
In this paper we offer a general method for analysing the demographic processes that contribute to population growth and redistribution in a multiregional system. The method incorporates a historical perspective that can be used to trace dynamic population processes as they evolve over time. It uses an open multiregional projection model framework for identifying the contributions to regional growth made by each of the principal demographic compo…
Immigration and the Regional Demographics of the Elderly Population in the United States
Little evidence exists of any significant breaks with past trends in internal elderly migration patterns. Reconstruction of elderly population changes between 1950 and 1990 reveals that the driving force behind the changes was net aging-in-place and not net migration. Finally, analysis of the possible population rejuvenating effects of immigration suggests that although its impact has contributed to lower elderly-to-worker dependency ratios, its …
Describing migration spatial structure
Describing migration spatial structure
Capturing the Age and Spatial Structures of Migration
In this paper we model the structures found in the level (generation) and allocation (distribution) components of age-specific and origin - destination-specific migration flows. For the examples, we examine the regional migration patterns in the USA for four periods: 1955 - 60, 1965 - 70, 1975 - 80, and 1985 - 90. The age and migration structures are identified over time by using the logit model for categorical data. Just as model schedules can b…
Origin dependence, secondary migration, and the indirect estimation of migration flows from population stocks
Describing and projecting the age and spatial structures of interregional migration in Italy
A multiplicative component model is applied in this paper to present a simple, yet powerful, framework for analysing and projecting internal migration flows. The multiplicative components are useful for identifying important underlying structures in the migration patterns. To demonstrate, seven periods of age‐specific interregional migration in Italy (1970–1971 to 2000–2001) are analysed. This information is then used to project the age and spati…
Using age and spatial flow structures in the indirect estimation of migration streams
This article outlines a formal model-based approach for inferring interregional age-specific migration streams in settings where such data are incomplete, inadequate, or unavailable. The estimation approach relies heavily on log-linear models, using them to impose some of the regularities exhibited by past age and spatial structures or to combine and borrow information drawn from other sources. The approach is illustrated using data from the 1990…
The Estimation of International Migration Flows: A General Technique Focused on the Origin-Destination Association Structure
The log-linear model, with an alternative parameter coding scheme, is used in this paper to obtain estimates of international migration flows in situations where the data are inadequate or missing. The alternative parameter coding scheme is particularly useful in constructing the origin-destination association stricture-a key element often required for more-accurate predictions. To illustrate the method, international migration flows between coun…
Combining census and registration data to analyse ethnic migration patterns in England from 1991 to 2007
In this paper, we develop a model that allows us to combine annual (incomplete) registration data with (auxiliary) census data. The result is a synthetic database that can be used to analyse the evolution of specific migrant groups over time. For illustration, we model the evolution of ethnic interregional migration in England by age and sex from 1991 to 2007 by combining National Health Service registration data with 1991 and 2001 census data. T…
Ethnic migration between area groups in England and Wales
Minority ethnic populations in England and Wales have been increasing steadily as a share of the total population since the 1991 Census. In this paper, we are interested in how internal migration has changed as a possible consequence. Our analysis focuses on the movements between 12 area groups, as defined by the Office for National Statistics, and addresses the following three research questions: (1) how has internal migration in England and Wal…
Demographic Aspects of Migration
Dr. Albert Schmid President of the Federal Office for Migration and Refugees According to the United Nations, about 200 million people of the estimated world population of 6.8 billion are internationa
The Indirect Estimation of Migration: Methods for Dealing with Irregular, Inadequate, and Missing Data
Overcoming the Problems of Inconsistent International Migration data: A New Method Applied to Flows in Europe
Due to differences in definitions and measurement methods, cross-country comparisons of international migration patterns are difficult and confusing. Emigration numbers reported by sending countries tend to differ from the corresponding immigration numbers reported by receiving countries. In this paper, a methodology is presented to achieve harmonised estimates of migration flows benchmarked to a specific definition of duration. This methodology …
Putting the Pieces of the Puzzle Together: Age and Sex-Specific Estimates of Migration amongst Countries in the EU/Efta, 2002–2007
Migration Systems in Europe: Evidence From Harmonized Flow Data
Empirical tests of migration systems theory require consistent and complete data on international migration flows. Publicly available data, however, represent an inconsistent and incomplete set of measurements obtained from a variety of national data collection systems. We overcome these obstacles by standardizing the available migration reports of sending and receiving countries in the European Union and Norway each year from 2003–2007 and by es…
The temporal dynamics of international migration in Europe: Recent trends
Descriptive studies of international migration typically rely on measures of migrant stocks and migration rates to assess migration patterns. In this paper, we propose a third alternative. Using harmonized data on age-specific migration flows from and
Does Specification Matter? Experiments with Simple Multiregional Probabilistic Population Projections
Population projection models that introduce uncertainty are a growing subset of projection models in general. In this paper we focus on the importance of decisions made with regard to the model specifications adopted. We compare the forecasts and prediction intervals associated with four simple regional population projection models: an overall growth rate model, a component model with net migration, a component model with in-migration and out-mig…
Integrating uncertainty in time series population forecasts: An illustration using a simple projection model
Population forecasts are widely used for public policy purposes. Methods to quantify the uncertainty in forecasts tend to ignore model uncertainty and to be based on a single model
New insights into the fertility patterns of recent Polish migrants in the United Kingdom
Identification change and its effect on projections of the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population in Australia
Bayesian Population Forecasting: Extending the Lee-Carter Method
In this article, we develop a fully integrated and dynamic Bayesian approach to forecast populations by age and sex. The approach embeds the Lee-Carter type models for forecasting the age patterns, with associated measures of uncertainty, of fertility, mortality, immigration, and emigration within a cohort projection model. The methodology may be adapted to handle different data types and sources of information. To illustrate, we analyze time ser…
International migration under the microscope
Fragmented research and limited data must be addressed
Geography (38 works) · Population (38 works) · Economics (35 works) · Sociology (33 works) · Demography (32 works) · Migration and Labor Dynamics (29 works) · Demography (27 works) · Urban, Neighborhood, and Segregation Studies (23 works) · Computer Science (19 works) · Demographic economics (19 works)