C Oswald
Biographic Data
| ID | 138906 |
|---|---|
| NAME | C Oswald |
| GIVEN NAMES | C |
| FAMILY NAME | Oswald |
| SIGNATURE | OSWALD C |
| AFFILIATIONS | Universität der Bundeswehr München |
| ORCID | 0000-0001-8291-9544 |
| VERIFIED | Yes |
| TOTAL WORKS | 9 |
| TOTAL CITATIONS | 19 |
| WORKS AS AUTHOR | 9 |
| WORKS AS EDITOR | 0 |
| FIRST PUBLICATION YEAR | 1980 |
| LATEST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2026 |
| H-INDEX | 3 |
Sharpening Blunt Instruments
When researchers cannot randomly assign a treatment, as is often the case in international relations, they rely on observational data and use quasi-experimental designs with instrumental variables. Despite new advances in this area, even instruments with high first–stage relevance (large F–statistics) may fail the exclusion restriction if they affect the outcome through uncontrolled channels. In applied studies, the widespread use of the same ins…
I Still Haven’t Found what I’m Looking for
Conflict forecasting has seen two recent developments: a shift to predicting continuous variables and a debate about the value of structural and procedural variables. This paper contributes to these efforts and proposes the category of salience variables in the form of Google Trends and Wikipedia data. Internet searches can be precursors of conflict intensity as a result of for example an increase in protests, violent behavior, or public announce…
The 2023/24 Views Prediction challenge
Governmental and nongovernmental organizations have increasingly relied on early-warning systems of conflict to support their decisionmaking. Predictions of war intensity as probability distributions prove closer to what policymakers need than point estimates, as they encompass useful representations of both the most likely outcome and the lower-probability risk that conflicts escalate catastrophically. Point-estimate predictions, by contrast, fa…
Taking time seriously
Previous conflict forecasting efforts identified three areas for improvement: the importance of spatiotemporal dependencies and nonlinearities and the further exploitation of latent information in conflict variables, a lack of interpretability in return for high accuracy of complex algorithms, and the need to quantify prediction uncertainty. We predict conflict fatalities with temporal fusion transformers which have several desirable features for…
Click, click boom
Data and methods development are key to improve our ability to forecast conflict. Relatively recent data sources such as mobile phone and social media data or images have received widespread attention in conflict research. Oftentimes these do not cover substantial parts of the globe or they are difficult to obtain and manipulate, which makes regular updating challenging. The sometimes vast amounts of data can also be computationally and financial…
Under the Roof of Rebels
Do rebels target civilians as part of the process of establishing control in their territories? This research note shows that transition periods after rebels gain territorial control are remarkably violent for civilians. Speaking to the civilian victimization and rebel governance literature, we investigate the immediate time period after rebels successfully capture and hold territory. We argue that rebels use violence to gain compliance in newly …
Predictors of Retention and Achievement in a Massive Open Online Course
Massive open online courses (MOOCs) have been heralded as an education revolution, but they suffer from low retention, calling into question their viability as a means of promoting education for all. In addition, numerous gaps remain in the research literature, particularly concerning predictors of retention and achievement. In this study, we used survival analysis to examine the degree to which student characteristics, relevance, prior experienc…
The perceived meaning of the video game experience
Auswirkungen von touristischen Infrastrukturinvestitionen auf die Einkommenslage im Berggebiet
Under the Roof of Rebels
Do rebels target civilians as part of the process of establishing control in their territories? This research note shows that transition periods after rebels gain territorial control are remarkably violent for civilians. Speaking to the civilian victimization and rebel governance literature, we investigate the immediate time period after rebels successfully capture and hold territory. We argue that rebels use violence to gain compliance in newly …
Click, click boom
Data and methods development are key to improve our ability to forecast conflict. Relatively recent data sources such as mobile phone and social media data or images have received widespread attention in conflict research. Oftentimes these do not cover substantial parts of the globe or they are difficult to obtain and manipulate, which makes regular updating challenging. The sometimes vast amounts of data can also be computationally and financial…
Predictors of Retention and Achievement in a Massive Open Online Course
Massive open online courses (MOOCs) have been heralded as an education revolution, but they suffer from low retention, calling into question their viability as a means of promoting education for all. In addition, numerous gaps remain in the research literature, particularly concerning predictors of retention and achievement. In this study, we used survival analysis to examine the degree to which student characteristics, relevance, prior experienc…
The perceived meaning of the video game experience
Auswirkungen von touristischen Infrastrukturinvestitionen auf die Einkommenslage im Berggebiet
The perceived meaning of the video game experience
Predictors of Retention and Achievement in a Massive Open Online Course
Massive open online courses (MOOCs) have been heralded as an education revolution, but they suffer from low retention, calling into question their viability as a means of promoting education for all. In addition, numerous gaps remain in the research literature, particularly concerning predictors of retention and achievement. In this study, we used survival analysis to examine the degree to which student characteristics, relevance, prior experienc…
Under the Roof of Rebels
Do rebels target civilians as part of the process of establishing control in their territories? This research note shows that transition periods after rebels gain territorial control are remarkably violent for civilians. Speaking to the civilian victimization and rebel governance literature, we investigate the immediate time period after rebels successfully capture and hold territory. We argue that rebels use violence to gain compliance in newly …
Click, click boom
Data and methods development are key to improve our ability to forecast conflict. Relatively recent data sources such as mobile phone and social media data or images have received widespread attention in conflict research. Oftentimes these do not cover substantial parts of the globe or they are difficult to obtain and manipulate, which makes regular updating challenging. The sometimes vast amounts of data can also be computationally and financial…
Taking time seriously
Previous conflict forecasting efforts identified three areas for improvement: the importance of spatiotemporal dependencies and nonlinearities and the further exploitation of latent information in conflict variables, a lack of interpretability in return for high accuracy of complex algorithms, and the need to quantify prediction uncertainty. We predict conflict fatalities with temporal fusion transformers which have several desirable features for…
I Still Haven’t Found what I’m Looking for
Conflict forecasting has seen two recent developments: a shift to predicting continuous variables and a debate about the value of structural and procedural variables. This paper contributes to these efforts and proposes the category of salience variables in the form of Google Trends and Wikipedia data. Internet searches can be precursors of conflict intensity as a result of for example an increase in protests, violent behavior, or public announce…
The 2023/24 Views Prediction challenge
Governmental and nongovernmental organizations have increasingly relied on early-warning systems of conflict to support their decisionmaking. Predictions of war intensity as probability distributions prove closer to what policymakers need than point estimates, as they encompass useful representations of both the most likely outcome and the lower-probability risk that conflicts escalate catastrophically. Point-estimate predictions, by contrast, fa…
Sharpening Blunt Instruments
When researchers cannot randomly assign a treatment, as is often the case in international relations, they rely on observational data and use quasi-experimental designs with instrumental variables. Despite new advances in this area, even instruments with high first–stage relevance (large F–statistics) may fail the exclusion restriction if they affect the outcome through uncontrolled channels. In applied studies, the widespread use of the same ins…
Computer Science (6 works) · Political science (6 works) · Psychology (4 works) · Artificial Intelligence (3 works) · Data-Driven Disease Surveillance (3 works) · Terrorism, Counterterrorism, and Political Violence (3 works) · Argument (complex analysis (2 works) · COVID-19 epidemiological studies (2 works) · Economics (2 works) · Engineering (2 works)