Lotta Rüter
Biographic Data
| ID | 1417926 |
|---|---|
| NAME | Lotta Rüter |
| GIVEN NAMES | Lotta |
| FAMILY NAME | Rüter |
| SIGNATURE | RÜTER L |
| AFFILIATIONS | Karlsruhe Institute of Technology |
| ORCID | 0009-0001-3865-8161 |
| VERIFIED | Yes |
| TOTAL WORKS | 2 |
| TOTAL CITATIONS | 0 |
| AUTHOR COUNT | 2 |
| EDITOR COUNT | 0 |
| FIRST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2023 |
| LATEST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2025 |
| H-INDEX | 0 |
The 2023/24 Views Prediction challenge
Governmental and nongovernmental organizations have increasingly relied on early-warning systems of conflict to support their decisionmaking. Predictions of war intensity as probability distributions prove closer to what policymakers need than point estimates, as they encompass useful representations of both the most likely outcome and the lower-probability risk that conflicts escalate catastrophically. Point-estimate predictions, by contrast, fa…
Direction Augmentation in the Evaluation of Armed Conflict Predictions
In many forecasting settings, there is a specific interest in predicting the sign of an outcome variable correctly in addition to its magnitude. For instance, when forecasting armed conflicts, positive and negative log-changes in monthly fatalities represent escalation and de-escalation, respectively, and have very different implications. In the ViEWS forecasting challenge, a prediction competition on state-based violence, a novel evaluation scor…
No prominent works on this page.
Direction Augmentation in the Evaluation of Armed Conflict Predictions
In many forecasting settings, there is a specific interest in predicting the sign of an outcome variable correctly in addition to its magnitude. For instance, when forecasting armed conflicts, positive and negative log-changes in monthly fatalities represent escalation and de-escalation, respectively, and have very different implications. In the ViEWS forecasting challenge, a prediction competition on state-based violence, a novel evaluation scor…
The 2023/24 Views Prediction challenge
Governmental and nongovernmental organizations have increasingly relied on early-warning systems of conflict to support their decisionmaking. Predictions of war intensity as probability distributions prove closer to what policymakers need than point estimates, as they encompass useful representations of both the most likely outcome and the lower-probability risk that conflicts escalate catastrophically. Point-estimate predictions, by contrast, fa…
Armed conflict (1 work) · Competition (biology (1 work) · Computer Science (1 work) · Computer security (1 work) · COVID-19 epidemiological studies (1 work) · Data-Driven Disease Surveillance (1 work) · Econometrics (1 work) · Economics (1 work) · Engineering (1 work) · Forecasting Techniques and Applications (1 work)