Lawrence J Christiano
Biographic Data
| ID | 1456762 |
|---|---|
| NAME | Lawrence J Christiano |
| GIVEN NAMES | Lawrence J |
| FAMILY NAME | Christiano |
| SIGNATURE | CHRISTIANO L J |
| AFFILIATIONS | Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis |
| VERIFIED | No |
| TOTAL WORKS | 15 |
| TOTAL CITATIONS | 144 |
| AUTHOR COUNT | 15 |
| EDITOR COUNT | 0 |
| FIRST PUBLICATION YEAR | 1990 |
| LATEST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2022 |
| H-INDEX | 3 |
Modelling the Great Recession as a Bank Panic: Challenges
We highlight two challenges for the notion that a pure panic bank run played an important role in the dynamics in the Great Recession. First, the conclusion depends critically on ruling out any entry of new net worth into a sector experiencing a run. We find that the implied cost of entry is implausibly large, across a range of pure panic models. Second, we show that the qualitative features of run equilibria (their existence, how many there are,…
On DSGE Models
The outcome of any important macroeconomic policy change is the net effect of forces operating on different parts of the economy. A central challenge facing policymakers is how to assess the relative strength of those forces. Economists have a range of tools that can be used to make such assessments. Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models are the leading tool for making such assessments in an open and transparent manner. We review t…
Risk Shocks
We augment a standard monetary dynamic general equilibrium model to include a Bernanke-Gertler-Gilchrist financial accelerator mechanism. We fit the model to US data, allowing the volatility of cross-sectional idiosyncratic uncertainty to fluctuate over time. We refer to this measure of volatility as risk. We find that fluctuations in risk are the most important shock driving the business cycle. (JEL D81, D82, E32, E44, L26)
When Is the Government Spending Multiplier Large
We argue that the government-spending multiplier can be much larger than one when the zero lower bound on the nominal interest rate binds. The larger the fraction of government spending that occurs while the nominal interest rate is zero, the larger the value of the multiplier. After providing intuition for these results, we investigate the size of the multiplier in a dynamic, stochastic, general equilibrium model. In this model the multiplier ef…
Nominal Rigidities and the Dynamic Effects of a Shock to Monetary Policy
We present a model embodying moderate amounts of nominal rigidities that accounts for the observed inertia in inflation and persistence in output. The key features of our model are those that prevent a sharp rise in marginal costs after an expansionary shock to monetary policy. Of these features, the most important are staggered wage contracts that have an average duration of three quarters and variable capital utilization
The Band Pass Filter
We develop optimal finite‐sample approximations for the band pass filter. These approximations include one‐sided filters that can be used in real time. Optimal approximations depend upon the details of the time series representation that generates the data. Fortunately, for U.S. macroeconomic data, getting the details exactly right is not crucial. A simple approach, based on the generally false assumption that the data are generated by a random w…
Chapter 2 Monetary policy shocks: What have we learned and to what end?
Small-Sample Properties of GMM for Business-Cycle Analysis
We investigate, by Monte Carlo methods, the finite-sample properties of generalized method of moment procedures for conducting inference about statistics that are of interest in the business-cycle literature. These statistics include the second moments of data filtered using the first-difference and Hodrick–Prescott filters, and they include statistics for evaluating model fit. Our results indicate that, for the procedures considered, the existin…
Special Section on Small-Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) Associate Editor's Introduction
"Special Section on Small-Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) Associate Editor's Introduction." Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 14(3), p. 261
The Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks: Evidence from the Flow of Funds
Flow of funds; Monetary policy
Frontiers of Business Cycle Research
List of IllustrationsList of TablesPrefaceContributors1Economic Growth and Business Cycles12Recursive Methods for Computing Equilibria of Business Cycle Models393Computing Equilibria of Nonoptimal Economies654Models with Heterogeneous Agents985Business Cycles and Aggregate Labor Market Fluctuations1266Household Production in Real Business Cycle Theory1577Money and the Business Cycle1758Non-Walrasian Economies2179Dynamic General Equilibrium Models…
Optimal Fiscal Policy in a Business Cycle Model
This paper develops the quantitative implications of optimal fiscal policy in a business cycle model. In a stationary equilibrium, the ex ante tax rate on capital income is approximately zero. The tax rate on labor income fluctuates very little and inherits the persistence properties of the exogenous shocks; thus there is no presumption that optimal labor tax rates follow a random walk. Most of the welfare gains realized by switching from a tax s…
Searching for a Break in GNP
It has been suggested that existing estimates of the long-run impact of a surprise move in income may have a substantial upward bias due to the presence of a trend break in post war U.S. GNP data. This paper shows that the statistical evidence does not warrant abandoning the no trend null hypothesis. A key part of the argument is that conventionally computed significance levels overstate the likelihood of the trend break alternative hypothesis. T…
Solving the Stochastic Growth Model by Linear-Quadratic Approximation and by Value-Function Iteration
This article describes three approximation methods I used to solve the growth model (Model 1) studied by the National Bureau of Economic Research's nonlinear rational-expectations-modeling group project, the results of which were summarized by Taylor and Uhlig (1990). The methods involve computing exact solutions to models that approximate Model 1 in different ways. The first two methods approximate Model 1 about its nonstochastic steady state. T…
Linear-Quadratic Approximation and Value-Function Iteration: A Comparison
This article studies the accuracy of two versions of Kydland and Prescott's (1980, 1982) procedure for approximating optimal decision rules in problems in which the objective fails to be quadratic and the constraints fail to be linear. The analysis is carried out using a version of the Brock–Mirman (1972) model of optimal economic growth. Although the model is not linear quadratic, its solution can, nevertheless, be computed with arbitrary accura…
Nominal Rigidities and the Dynamic Effects of a Shock to Monetary Policy
We present a model embodying moderate amounts of nominal rigidities that accounts for the observed inertia in inflation and persistence in output. The key features of our model are those that prevent a sharp rise in marginal costs after an expansionary shock to monetary policy. Of these features, the most important are staggered wage contracts that have an average duration of three quarters and variable capital utilization
When Is the Government Spending Multiplier Large
We argue that the government-spending multiplier can be much larger than one when the zero lower bound on the nominal interest rate binds. The larger the fraction of government spending that occurs while the nominal interest rate is zero, the larger the value of the multiplier. After providing intuition for these results, we investigate the size of the multiplier in a dynamic, stochastic, general equilibrium model. In this model the multiplier ef…
On DSGE Models
The outcome of any important macroeconomic policy change is the net effect of forces operating on different parts of the economy. A central challenge facing policymakers is how to assess the relative strength of those forces. Economists have a range of tools that can be used to make such assessments. Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models are the leading tool for making such assessments in an open and transparent manner. We review t…
Optimal Fiscal Policy in a Business Cycle Model
This paper develops the quantitative implications of optimal fiscal policy in a business cycle model. In a stationary equilibrium, the ex ante tax rate on capital income is approximately zero. The tax rate on labor income fluctuates very little and inherits the persistence properties of the exogenous shocks; thus there is no presumption that optimal labor tax rates follow a random walk. Most of the welfare gains realized by switching from a tax s…
Solving the Stochastic Growth Model by Linear-Quadratic Approximation and by Value-Function Iteration
This article describes three approximation methods I used to solve the growth model (Model 1) studied by the National Bureau of Economic Research's nonlinear rational-expectations-modeling group project, the results of which were summarized by Taylor and Uhlig (1990). The methods involve computing exact solutions to models that approximate Model 1 in different ways. The first two methods approximate Model 1 about its nonstochastic steady state. T…
Linear-Quadratic Approximation and Value-Function Iteration: A Comparison
This article studies the accuracy of two versions of Kydland and Prescott's (1980, 1982) procedure for approximating optimal decision rules in problems in which the objective fails to be quadratic and the constraints fail to be linear. The analysis is carried out using a version of the Brock–Mirman (1972) model of optimal economic growth. Although the model is not linear quadratic, its solution can, nevertheless, be computed with arbitrary accura…
Searching for a Break in GNP
It has been suggested that existing estimates of the long-run impact of a surprise move in income may have a substantial upward bias due to the presence of a trend break in post war U.S. GNP data. This paper shows that the statistical evidence does not warrant abandoning the no trend null hypothesis. A key part of the argument is that conventionally computed significance levels overstate the likelihood of the trend break alternative hypothesis. T…
Optimal Fiscal Policy in a Business Cycle Model
This paper develops the quantitative implications of optimal fiscal policy in a business cycle model. In a stationary equilibrium, the ex ante tax rate on capital income is approximately zero. The tax rate on labor income fluctuates very little and inherits the persistence properties of the exogenous shocks; thus there is no presumption that optimal labor tax rates follow a random walk. Most of the welfare gains realized by switching from a tax s…
Frontiers of Business Cycle Research
List of IllustrationsList of TablesPrefaceContributors1Economic Growth and Business Cycles12Recursive Methods for Computing Equilibria of Business Cycle Models393Computing Equilibria of Nonoptimal Economies654Models with Heterogeneous Agents985Business Cycles and Aggregate Labor Market Fluctuations1266Household Production in Real Business Cycle Theory1577Money and the Business Cycle1758Non-Walrasian Economies2179Dynamic General Equilibrium Models…
Small-Sample Properties of GMM for Business-Cycle Analysis
We investigate, by Monte Carlo methods, the finite-sample properties of generalized method of moment procedures for conducting inference about statistics that are of interest in the business-cycle literature. These statistics include the second moments of data filtered using the first-difference and Hodrick–Prescott filters, and they include statistics for evaluating model fit. Our results indicate that, for the procedures considered, the existin…
Special Section on Small-Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) Associate Editor's Introduction
"Special Section on Small-Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) Associate Editor's Introduction." Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 14(3), p. 261
The Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks: Evidence from the Flow of Funds
Flow of funds; Monetary policy
Chapter 2 Monetary policy shocks: What have we learned and to what end?
The Band Pass Filter
We develop optimal finite‐sample approximations for the band pass filter. These approximations include one‐sided filters that can be used in real time. Optimal approximations depend upon the details of the time series representation that generates the data. Fortunately, for U.S. macroeconomic data, getting the details exactly right is not crucial. A simple approach, based on the generally false assumption that the data are generated by a random w…
Nominal Rigidities and the Dynamic Effects of a Shock to Monetary Policy
We present a model embodying moderate amounts of nominal rigidities that accounts for the observed inertia in inflation and persistence in output. The key features of our model are those that prevent a sharp rise in marginal costs after an expansionary shock to monetary policy. Of these features, the most important are staggered wage contracts that have an average duration of three quarters and variable capital utilization
When Is the Government Spending Multiplier Large
We argue that the government-spending multiplier can be much larger than one when the zero lower bound on the nominal interest rate binds. The larger the fraction of government spending that occurs while the nominal interest rate is zero, the larger the value of the multiplier. After providing intuition for these results, we investigate the size of the multiplier in a dynamic, stochastic, general equilibrium model. In this model the multiplier ef…
Risk Shocks
We augment a standard monetary dynamic general equilibrium model to include a Bernanke-Gertler-Gilchrist financial accelerator mechanism. We fit the model to US data, allowing the volatility of cross-sectional idiosyncratic uncertainty to fluctuate over time. We refer to this measure of volatility as risk. We find that fluctuations in risk are the most important shock driving the business cycle. (JEL D81, D82, E32, E44, L26)
On DSGE Models
The outcome of any important macroeconomic policy change is the net effect of forces operating on different parts of the economy. A central challenge facing policymakers is how to assess the relative strength of those forces. Economists have a range of tools that can be used to make such assessments. Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models are the leading tool for making such assessments in an open and transparent manner. We review t…
Modelling the Great Recession as a Bank Panic: Challenges
We highlight two challenges for the notion that a pure panic bank run played an important role in the dynamics in the Great Recession. First, the conclusion depends critically on ruling out any entry of new net worth into a sector experiencing a run. We find that the implied cost of entry is implausibly large, across a range of pure panic models. Second, we show that the qualitative features of run equilibria (their existence, how many there are,…
Economics (11 works) · Monetary Policy and Economic Impact (11 works) · Economic theories and models (10 works) · Computer Science (7 works) · Keynesian economics (7 works) · Macroeconomics (7 works) · Mathematics (7 works) · Economic Theory and Policy (6 works) · Monetary economics (6 works) · Monetary policy (6 works)