Noël Bonneuil
Biographic Data
| ID | 160032 |
|---|---|
| NAME | Noël Bonneuil |
| GIVEN NAMES | Noël |
| FAMILY NAME | Bonneuil |
| SIGNATURE | BONNEUIL N |
| AFFILIATIONS | Institut national d'études démographiques |
| ORCID | 0000-0002-3196-2793 |
| VERIFIED | Yes |
| TOTAL WORKS | 57 |
| TOTAL CITATIONS | 32 |
| AUTHOR COUNT | 57 |
| EDITOR COUNT | 0 |
| FIRST PUBLICATION YEAR | 1986 |
| LATEST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2026 |
| H-INDEX | 3 |
Less Childbearing? The Varied Paths of the Fertility Transition in the Don Army Territory (Southern Russia), 1867–1916
The Don Army Territory 1867–1916 brought together seven denominational groups, spread across cities and rural areas with contrasting economies. The trajectories of legitimate fertility proved diverse: While urban Orthodox and those in the Lower Don, rural Old Believers, and rural Armenian-Gregorians maintained a high fertility level until 1916, urban Jews, urban Catholics, and urban Armenian-Gregorians showed low fertility. Upper Don Orthodox slo…
Ageing and Type of Employment Affect Workers’ Ability to Anticipate Their Employment Prospects
PURPOSE: To what extent do individual cognitive biases in anticipating position stability reflect and reproduce structural socioeconomic inequalities? MATERIAL AND METHOD: The Korean Longitudinal Survey on Aging 2006-2020 allows estimating the probability of keeping one's position six years ahead at each wave. Respondents are also asked to anticipate their probability of remaining in position five years ahead. The gap between these two underlying…
Escalation to conflict as an ongoing process
The sequence leading to conflict, as specifically in July 1914, reveals the changes in each protagonist’s propensity to wage war. To characterize its timing, escalation is viewed as a viability (differential) game in progress under the protagonists’ actions. The chronicle of confrontations and accommodations allows for estimating a responsiveness structure at the heart of the game. As the moves, which are the controls, are observed, and not the s…
When Households Spend More than they Earn
Durations of households’ deficits reveal the difficulty of gathering the means to get by. They involve coverable means. A two-stage Heckman estimation coupled with endogenous regressions of coverable means and subjective health applied to the Korean Longitudinal Study on Aging, 2006-2020, shows that the deficit is likely when family heads are elderly or women, unemployed, with children, living in apartments, with dependants, with housing expenses…
Between Economy and Social Coercion
The nuptiality transition in the Don Army Territory 1867–1916 depended on residence, economy, and religion. In rural areas, population growth and the scarcity of good land undermined the Orthodox tradition, though it was defended by the Church; rural Armenian-Gregorians persisted in early marriage, unlike Old Believers, Buddhists, and Lutherans. In cities, Armenian-Gregorians and Jews, unlike Catholics, adopted late marriage. Age at marriage amon…
Seasonal fluctuations of age classes, with application to South Russia, 1896-1897
Seasonal variations in age class sizes involve those of births and those of mortality across ages. They affect censuses and, consequently, rates involving numbers by age. As their analytical expression becomes inextricable, a simulation of aging cohorts by months of age shows that mortality oscillations for human populations are not sufficient to prevent age classes from oscillating approximately like associated births, contrary to what previous …
Cognitive bias in anticipating mortality risk affects the subjective quality of life and consumption-related lifestyle
How does attitude to death influence consumption level and profiles and conversely? The database is a representative follow-up of Korean respondents from 2006 to 2016. Satisfaction with quality of life is combined with endogenous consumption level, consumption patterns, deviation from expected mortality—the propensity for dying—, and wealth. Exogenous variables include sex, age, education, children, place of residence, and employment. Satisfactio…
Seasonal components of infant mortality at the onset of the transition reveal the role of water-borne and air-borne diseases
Seasonal components of infant probabilities of dying are disentangled from monthly death statistics by age and birth by articulating demographic equations and stochastic optimization. In the Don Army Territory, for the period 1872–1915, these components reflect respiratory diseases in autumn and spring, dehydration and waterborne diseases in summer, and cold stress in winter. During the warmer months, they were lower in cities. Summer heat had a …
Who (still) cares? Patterns of informal caregiving to adult dependents in South Korea, 2006–2012
Provision of informal care is declining in South Korea. Informal caregiving is examined in South Korea using longitudinal data. The results are that women with a dependent disengage more from caregiving than men; caregivers are young rather than old, and more frequently live in rural areas. They receive more financial transfers from non-cohabiting relatives and have fewer children than non-caregivers with a dependent adult. Both caregivers and no…
Socio-economic and health determinants of transitions to adult dependency in South Korea, 2008–2014
Arbitrage Between Consumption and Saving for Bequest
Arbitrage between consumption and saving occurs in a context of an aging society where family solidarity is deteriorating. Maximizing inter-temporal utility makes it possible to calculate the preference for saving. The arbitrage involves subjective satisfaction with the quality of life, anticipated survival, and consumption profiles. Simultaneous equations based on the Korean Longitudinal Study on Aging, 2006–2014 (10,205 adults aged 45 and over)…
Nuptiality to regulate the commons? The case of the Don Cossacks (South Russia), 1867–1916
Sustainability in the commons has been associated with the optimal net present value controlled by the harvest rate under stationary population. Population growth however disrupts this scheme. In traditional societies, fertility was regulated by age at marriage. In times of population growth and limited resources, economic sustainability then requires that age of marriage should be raised. In the case study of the Don Cossacks, 1867–1916, early m…
Reconstruction of populations by stochastic optimization
The reconstruction of populations by stochastic optimization solves the nontrivial problem of finding demographic flows from population registers or vital statistics and censuses, if available. These flows allow the reconstruction of stocks (age pyramids and vital statistics). After a review of reconstruction methods, the sensitivity analysis shows the robustness of the method by stochastic optimization to flawed or missing values, to the length …
Longevity, age-structure, and optimal schooling
Precarious employment among South Korean women
Theories of precarious employment based on the constructs of job quality and job stability have highlighted the issue of transitions, linked to gender and age, from long-duration employment in bad-quality jobs, into good-quality stable employment. This article uses Markov chain analysis to study the labour market transitions of South Korean women in different age groups. It shows the importance of differentiating the effects of contemporary labou…
Health Component of Inequalities Associated with Income Mobility Over the Life Cycle
Arrival of Courtly Love
Courtly love appeared in twelfth-century Europe as a dissent from the emotional regime established by the Gregorian Reform, by setting the lady, instead of God, as the object of worship. From a game-theory perspective, courtly love and hedonism correspond to Nash equilibria, in contrast to Christian marriage, whose stability is threatened by sex-as-appetite on one side and devotion to God on the other, and whose maintenance depends on moral contr…
Learning Hygiene
The Don Army Territory in southern Russia from 1867 to 1916 offers a unique opportunity to follow mortality variations across religious denominations (Orthodox, Old Believers and Coreligionists, Catholics, Lutherans, Jews, Armenian-Gregorians, Buddhists, and Muslims) in a context of severe climatic conditions, urbanization, economic mutations, and improvements in hygiene and medicine. Denominational groups were differentiated by ways of life, res…
Viable Ramsey economies
The Ramsey model of economic growth is revisited from the perspective of viability theory. The Ramsey model, augmented with minimal consumption and sustainability criteria, becomes a viability problem. The framework allows for a clear picture of optimal viable, optimal non‐viable, and viable non‐optimal paths. The drastic sacrifices in terms of present consumption required by the implementation of Brundtland sustainability are visualized, the ric…
Morphological Transition of Schooling in 19th-Century France
The transformation over time of level sets—the sets of states for which a given function takes a given value—has no reason to be regular, especially in social science, where the structure of these level sets of a given variable may be altered by a fluctuating demography or disrupted by unexpected events, and where the actors contribute to shaping their space through investment policies. The pioneering construction of graphic derivatives of set-va…
Secularisation and the religious components of marriage seasonality in the Don Army Territory (Southern Russia), 1867–1916
The quality of the statistical archives of the Don Army Territory for the period 1867–1916 offers a unique opportunity to compare the denominations present (Orthodox, Old Believers and Coreligionists, Catholics, Lutherans, Jews, Armenian-Gregorians, Lamaist Buddhists and Muslims) in a context of urbanisation, secularisation and industrialisation. The observance of religious interdicts varied between and within denominations depending on levels of…
Family regulation as a moving target in the demographic transition
The Mathematics of Time in History1
The themes of connectedness and continuity, which are also mathematical properties, have run like a red thread through the last fifty years of History and Theory, notably in the theory of the narration of action in history. In this essay I review various answers to the question of the driving force that motivates action and that propels a sequence, continuous or discontinuous. These answers underpin narrative strategies intended to solve the prob…
Between Tradition and Modernity
The transition of contraception use in Colombia was an important moment when health and fertility were tightly associated with social behavior. Multi-level multi-process (duration and method choice) life history analysis of contraceptive use allows the identification of determinants. Individual trajectories show many successive spells of adopting or ceasing contraception. Younger women displayed discontinuous behavior with a large proportion of t…
Do Historians Make the Best Futurists
Familial components of first migrations after marriage in nineteenth-century France
The risk of migration for an individual is linked to the occupations and residences of kin in nineteenth-century France, thanks to the ‘3000 Families Survey’ of chained genealogies. Familial dependence is assessed through a multi-level hierarchical event-history analysis. The risks of migration must be differentiated by the distance of the move: short- and long-distance moves appear to be stimulated by different processes. No matter the distance …
Labour Market Participation of French Women over the Life Cycle, 1935–1990
Fitting to a Distribution of Deaths by Age with Application to Paleodemography
What can we learn from distributions of deaths by age cumulated over time such as those estimated from skeletons? Among the many solutions fitting the data (which are not necessarily stable populations but which satisfy the demographic equations with timevarying fertility and mortality), the solution with the minimum variations in the demographic forces provides a useful reference. This solution is generally not a stable population, and it can be…
Fifty Years of Ethnic Conflict and Cohesion
The diversity of conflict sequences observed among 163 ethnic groups ranging from 1945 to 1994 is portrayed in correspondence with political and socio-economic factors. This diversity comes first from the strong association between mobilization, slight discrimination, migration distress, religion and repression. On a finer detail, discrimination appears to be associated with resistance if it is related to land and power, with war if it concerns s…
Changing Social Mobility in Nineteenth-Century France
(1999). Changing Social Mobility in Nineteenth-Century France. Historical Methods: A Journal of Quantitative and Interdisciplinary History: Vol. 32, No. 2, pp. 53-73
Population et économie en pays de Caux aux XVIe et XVIIe siècles
BiRABEN Jean-Noël, Bonneuil Noël. - Population et économie en Pays de Caux aux xvr* et xvii* siècles. L'histoire mouvementée du Pays de Caux aux xvie et xvnc siècles est retracée d'après les chroniques de l'époque et d'après les séries de baptêmes, mariages et sépultures de certaines paroisses. Une reconstruction méthodique de la population de ces paroisses est tentée, qui cherche à piéger les sous-enregistrements de décès. Les pyramides des âges…
Arrival of Courtly Love
Courtly love appeared in twelfth-century Europe as a dissent from the emotional regime established by the Gregorian Reform, by setting the lady, instead of God, as the object of worship. From a game-theory perspective, courtly love and hedonism correspond to Nash equilibria, in contrast to Christian marriage, whose stability is threatened by sex-as-appetite on one side and devotion to God on the other, and whose maintenance depends on moral contr…
Learning Hygiene
The Don Army Territory in southern Russia from 1867 to 1916 offers a unique opportunity to follow mortality variations across religious denominations (Orthodox, Old Believers and Coreligionists, Catholics, Lutherans, Jews, Armenian-Gregorians, Buddhists, and Muslims) in a context of severe climatic conditions, urbanization, economic mutations, and improvements in hygiene and medicine. Denominational groups were differentiated by ways of life, res…
Family regulation as a moving target in the demographic transition
The Mathematics of Time in History1
The themes of connectedness and continuity, which are also mathematical properties, have run like a red thread through the last fifty years of History and Theory, notably in the theory of the narration of action in history. In this essay I review various answers to the question of the driving force that motivates action and that propels a sequence, continuous or discontinuous. These answers underpin narrative strategies intended to solve the prob…
Womens education and diffusion of the fertility transition
History and Dynamics
Historical Dynamics: Why States Rise and Fall. By Peter Turchin
Reconstruire la population féminine de l'Hérault. entre 1856 et 1906, à partir des données de la Statistique générale de la France
Bonneuil Noël. Reconstruire la population féminine du département de l'Hérault entre 1856 et 1906 à partir des données de la Statistique générale de la France. In: Population, 53e année, n°3, 1998. pp. 517-533
Traitement des données manquantes dans les séries issues des registres paroissiaux
BONNEUIL (Noël). - Traitement des données manquantes dans les séries issues des registres paroissiaux L'enquête Biraben 1 500- 1 700 des registres paroissiaux est constituée de séries comportant des données manquantes. Pour compléter ces lacunes, il est préférable actuellement de recourir aux modèles ARIMA de l'économétrie des séries temporelles. On peut ainsi sélectionner quelles séries parmi les co-séries disponibles sont corrélées avec la séri…
Jeux, équilibres, et régulation des populations sous contraintes de viabilité
Bonneuil Noël. Jeux, équilibres et régulation des populations sous contrainte de viabilité. Une lecture de l'œuvre de l'anthropologue Fredrik Barth. In: Population, 52e année, n°4, 1997. pp. 947-976
Cohérence comptable des tableaux de la SGF
Bonneuil Noël. - Cohérence comptable des tableaux de la SGF : recensements de 1851 à 1906, mouvements de la population de 1801 à 1906 Les tableaux statistiques de la Statistique Générale de la France, et en particulier les recensements et les mouvements de population, constituent une mine de données de tout premier plan pour quiconque étudie la démographie du xixc siècle. Il faut en examiner la qualité «comptable», de sorte que d'une part les som…
Population et économie en pays de Caux aux XVIe et XVIIe siècles
BiRABEN Jean-Noël, Bonneuil Noël. - Population et économie en Pays de Caux aux xvr* et xvii* siècles. L'histoire mouvementée du Pays de Caux aux xvie et xvnc siècles est retracée d'après les chroniques de l'époque et d'après les séries de baptêmes, mariages et sépultures de certaines paroisses. Une reconstruction méthodique de la population de ces paroisses est tentée, qui cherche à piéger les sous-enregistrements de décès. Les pyramides des âges…
Aux frontières de l'économétrie et de la biologie », 13-14 mars 1986 à Sophia-Antipolis
Bonneuil Noël. « Aux frontières de l'économétrie et de la biologie », 13-14 mars 1986 à Sophia-Antipolis. In: Population, 41e année, n°6, 1986. pp. 1086-1094
Construction de taux de létalité en l'absence de données de morbidité. Cas de la rougeole au Sénégal
Bonneuil Noël. Construction de taux de létalité en l'absence de données de morbidité. Cas de la rougeole au Sénégal. In: Population, 42e année, n°4-5, 1987. pp. 746-754
Démographie du personnel et coûts salariaux
BONNEUIL Noël, DE LAMBILLY Robert, BOURCHET Bernard, BERTRAND Patrick, MU?OZ Paul, MARIE Pierre. - Démographie du personnel et coûts salariaux : calcul du GVT dans une population à forte mobilité. Le "Glissement- Vieillesse-Technicité" (GVT) mesure la variation de la masse salariale d'une année sur l'autre due aux changements de structure du personnel. Pour une population d'entreprise à forte mobilité : changements fréquents de fonctions, de nive…
M. Edinger — Sexually Transmitted Diseases and Fertility. A case study in Mahalapye Subdistrict, Botswana
Cohérence comptable des tableaux de la SGF
Bonneuil Noël. - Cohérence comptable des tableaux de la SGF : recensements de 1851 à 1906, mouvements de la population de 1801 à 1906 Les tableaux statistiques de la Statistique Générale de la France, et en particulier les recensements et les mouvements de population, constituent une mine de données de tout premier plan pour quiconque étudie la démographie du xixc siècle. Il faut en examiner la qualité «comptable», de sorte que d'une part les som…
Conjoncture et structure dans le comportement de fécondité
Bonneuil Noël. - Conjoncture et structure dans le comportement de fécondité. L'existence matérielle des cycles en démographie selon l'hypothèse d'Easterlin, demeure incertaine. Une nouvelle grille de lecture est proposée, pour interpréter l'évolution du taux net de reproduction dans les pays occidentaux depuis 1931. Pour cela, les théories du chaos déterministe permettent de décrire celui-ci comme appartenant à un système temporel dynamique et d'…
Temporalités en démographie historique
Noël Bonneuil. Temporalities in demographic history. In the pre-statistic period, series of baptism, marriages and burials reconstituted from the parish registers reflect the « ancien régime » demographic time. This is the time of the mortality crises, epidemics or shortages we can correlate with the price evolution. It's also possible to look for a causality between demographic, climatic or economic fluctuations and to propose mechanisms explain…
Migrations matrimoniales en France (1740-1829)
The investigation on French population 1740-1829 helps revealing marriage migrations between parishes at that time. Through time and from one region to another, first marriages were celebrated in a constant proportion between people living in the same parish. Mixed marriages were celebrated more and more in the parish where the woman lived, especially after 1815. This phenomenon is emphasized for marriages of widows with grooms. Moreover, it turn…
Modeles de la Demographie Historique
Jeux, équilibres et régulation des populations sous contrainte de viabilité. Une lecture de l'œuvre de l'anthropologue Fredrik Barth
BONNEUIL (Noël). - Jeux, équilibres, et régulation des populations sous contraintes de viabilité : une lecture de l'œuvre de l'anthropologue Fredrik Barth L'anthropologue Fredrik Barth a montré comment les formes sociales émergent des interactions individuelles. Pour cela, il a utilisé les notions mathématiques d'équilibre en théorie des systèmes dynamiques et en théorie des jeux. Cependant, on montre ici qu'il est moins question d'équilibres que…
Introduction à la modélisation démographique (26 problèmes corrigés)
Jeux, équilibres, et régulation des populations sous contraintes de viabilité
Bonneuil Noël. Jeux, équilibres et régulation des populations sous contrainte de viabilité. Une lecture de l'œuvre de l'anthropologue Fredrik Barth. In: Population, 52e année, n°4, 1997. pp. 947-976
Domaine de victoire et stratégies viables dans le cas d'une correspondance non-convexe
The anthropologist Fredrik Barth analysed the social forms generated among Norvegian fishermen. His view is well rendered by the mathematical tools of viability theory. The largest set of states from which economic survival is still possible is calculated, as well as the right decision to take at each moment, between risk-taking and following the other vessels. Moreover, the technical condition that the image of the correspondence describing the …
Reconstruire la population féminine de l'Hérault. entre 1856 et 1906, à partir des données de la Statistique générale de la France
Bonneuil Noël. Reconstruire la population féminine du département de l'Hérault entre 1856 et 1906 à partir des données de la Statistique générale de la France. In: Population, 53e année, n°3, 1998. pp. 517-533
Traitement des données manquantes dans les séries issues des registres paroissiaux
BONNEUIL (Noël). - Traitement des données manquantes dans les séries issues des registres paroissiaux L'enquête Biraben 1 500- 1 700 des registres paroissiaux est constituée de séries comportant des données manquantes. Pour compléter ces lacunes, il est préférable actuellement de recourir aux modèles ARIMA de l'économétrie des séries temporelles. On peut ainsi sélectionner quelles séries parmi les co-séries disponibles sont corrélées avec la séri…
Reconstruire la population féminine du département de l'Hérault entre 1856 et 1906 à partir des données de la Statistique générale de la France
BONNEUIL (Noël). - Reconstruire la population féminine de l'Hérault entre 1856 et 1906 à partir des données de la Statistique générale de la France Reconstruire les populations à partir de statistiques imparfaites se heurte notamment à la question du sous-enregistrement, à celle de l'attraction aux âges ronds, ou à celle de l'estimation des migrations. Dans un ouvrage récent, l'auteur a proposé, pour l'ensemble des départements français, une solu…
Commentaire de Noël Bonneuil
Games, equilibria and population regulation under viability constraints
Bonneuil (Noël). - Jeux, équilibres et régulation des populations sous contraintes de viabilité. Une lecture de l'œuvre de l'anthropologue Fredrik Barth L'anthropologue Fredrik Barth a montré comment les formes sociales émergent des interactions individuelles. Pour cela, il a utilisé les notions mathématiques d'équilibre en théorie des systèmes dynamiques et en théorie des jeux. Cependant, on montre ici qu'il est moins question d'équilibres que d…
Changing Social Mobility in Nineteenth-Century France
(1999). Changing Social Mobility in Nineteenth-Century France. Historical Methods: A Journal of Quantitative and Interdisciplinary History: Vol. 32, No. 2, pp. 53-73
Transformation of the French Demographic Landscape, 1806-1906
France was among the first countries to experience so-called 'demographic transition', when mortality and fertility declined and daily living conditions were deeply transformed. But the exact position traditionally assigned to France in the European fertility decline will have to be revised in the light of this study, which introduces new approaches and methods to the study of historical demography based on data for the eighty-nine departments of…
Non‐linear structured population dynamics with co‐variates
Co‐variates are incorporated into a general model of non‐linear structured population dynamics. The proof of the existence and uniqueness of the solutions results from those of a special set, the invariance envelope. It is also valid in presence of state constraints, and solutions need only to have a closed graph (instead of being weakly differentiable as requested in semi‐group theory). Moreover, this invariance envelope provides a simple way to…
Viability in dynamic social networks
Two examples, Sampson's monks and Padgett and Ansell’ Florentines, illustrate the viability approach of dynamic networks. Notably, the relationship with centrality is studied. Historical processes involving networks are discussed. Networks are presented as controls in controlled dynamic systems. Viability is the property for a state x that there exists a trajectory starting from x and satisfying the constraints until the time horizon. To obtain t…
Fifty Years of Ethnic Conflict and Cohesion
The diversity of conflict sequences observed among 163 ethnic groups ranging from 1945 to 1994 is portrayed in correspondence with political and socio-economic factors. This diversity comes first from the strong association between mobilization, slight discrimination, migration distress, religion and repression. On a finer detail, discrimination appears to be associated with resistance if it is related to land and power, with war if it concerns s…
Les modèles de populations à l'épreuve de l'histoire
L'observation des données démographiques historiques et la reconstruction des populations du passé posent la question de la dynamique des forces démographiques - fécondité, mortalité, migration - et de la relation de celle-ci à l'économie et l'environnement. L'économétrie des séries temporelles a permis de traiter les fluctuations de court terme, mais aussi d'identifier des équilibres de long terme entre démographie et transformation du paysage é…
Sociology (33 works) · Political science (26 works) · Demography (20 works) · Philosophy (17 works) · Economics (15 works) · Humanities (15 works) · Population (15 works) · Geography (13 works) · Medicine (12 works) · Demography (11 works)