Hal R Arkes
Biographic Data
| ID | 1661746 |
|---|---|
| NAME | Hal R Arkes |
| GIVEN NAMES | Hal R |
| FAMILY NAME | Arkes |
| SIGNATURE | ARKES H R |
| AFFILIATIONS | The Ohio State University |
| ORCID | 0000-0003-1448-095X |
| VERIFIED | Yes |
| TOTAL WORKS | 23 |
| TOTAL CITATIONS | 113 |
| AUTHOR COUNT | 23 |
| EDITOR COUNT | 0 |
| FIRST PUBLICATION YEAR | 1975 |
| LATEST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2019 |
| H-INDEX | 6 |
Perceptions of Gender, Race, and Anti-Conservative Discrimination on Campus
A consensus-based transparency checklist
We present a consensus-based checklist to improve and document the transparency of research reports in social and behavioural research. An accompanying online application allows users to complete the form and generate a report that they can submit with their manuscript or post to a public repository
Author Correction: A consensus-based transparency checklist
An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper
A levels of processing interpretation of dual-system theories of judgment and decision making
Recently there has been spirited disagreement about the merits of dual-system theories of higher cognition. I suggest that this dispute is very similar to the 1970s dispute between two-store theories of memory and levels of processing theory. The two-store or “box” theorists stipulated that short-term memory and long-term memory stores were quite dissimilar and therefore represented separate memory stores. Levels of processing theorists disputed …
The Effects of Expertise on the Hindsight Bias
We present data from three experiments examining the effects of objective and subjective expertise on the hindsight bias. In Experiment 1, participants read an essay about baseball or dogs and then answered questions about the baseball essay to the best of their ability, as if they had not read the essay, or to the best of their ability, although they read about dogs. Participants also completed a quiz about baseball rules and terminology, which …
Emerging Perspectives on Judgment and Decision Research
Disjunction Between Probability and Verdict in Juror Decision Making
Although the law assumes a close relation between the probability that a defendant committed the act in question and the ensuing verdict of the jurors, prior research has shown this assumption to be often violated. We present five experiments designed to show that factors that influence probability also influence verdict, but other factors are capable of directly producing changes in verdict without affecting probability. In Experiment 1, we repl…
Assessing the merits and faults of holistic and disaggregated judgments
Three studies explored both the advantages of and subjects' preferences for a disaggregated judgment procedure and a holistic one. The task in our first two studies consisted of evaluating colleges; the third study asked participants to evaluate job applicants. Holistic ratings consisted of providing an overall evaluation while considering all of the characteristics of the evaluation objects; disaggregated ratings consisted of evaluating each cue…
Preference reversals in evaluations of cash versus non-cash incentives
The effects of mental contamination on the hindsight bias: Source confusion determines success in disregarding knowledge
We present data from eight experiments in which we explored the effects of source confusion on the hindsight bias; participants' success in disregarding information when they were instructed to do so was affected by participants' level of source confusion. In Experiment 1 we demonstrated participants' failure to disregard Revolutionary War information they recently learned while reading an essay; this failure to discount was not affected by parti…
Comparing holistic and disaggregated ratings in the evaluation of scientific presentations
The National Institutes of Health refused to switch to disaggregated ratings as a method for evaluating proposals, because no contest between disaggregated and holistic ratings had ever used scientific materials as the to‐be‐rated stimuli. We designed two studies to fill this research void. Participants rated scientific convention presentations either using a holistic procedure in which one overall rating was given or a disaggregated procedure in…
The recalcitrance of overconfidence and its contribution to decision aid neglect
Three experiments tested the hypothesis that people's overconfidence in the quality of their intuitive judgment strategies contributes to their reluctance to use helpful actuarial judgment aids. Participants engaged in a judgment task that required them to use five cues to decide whether a prospective juror favored physician‐assisted suicide. Participants had the opportunity to examine the judgments of a statistical equation that correctly classi…
Target Article: Attributions of Implicit Prejudice, or "Would Jesse Jackson 'Fail' the Implicit Association Test?"
Measures of implicit prejudice are based on associations between race-related stimuli and valenced words. Reaction time (RT) data have been characterized as showing implicit prejudice when White names or faces are associated with positive concepts and African-American names or faces with negative concepts, compared to the reverse pairings. We offer three objections to the inferential leap from the comparative RT of different associations to the a…
The role of probability of success estimates in the sunk cost effect
The sunk cost effect is manifested in a tendency to continue an endeavor once an investment has been made. Arkes and Blumer (1985) showed that a sunk cost increases one's estimated probability that the endeavor will succeed [p(s)]. Is this p(s) increase a cause of the sunk cost effect, a consequence of the effect, or both? In Experiment 1 participants read a scenario in which a sunk cost was or was not present. Half of each group read what the pr…
The sunk cost and Concorde effects: Are humans less rational than lower animals
The cost effect is a maladaptive economic behavior that is manifested in a greater tendency to continue an endeavor once an investment in money, effort, or time has been made. The Concorde fallacy is another name for the cost effect, except that the former term has been applied strictly to lower animals, whereas the latter has been applied solely to humans. The authors contend that there are no unambiguous instances of the Concorde fallacy in low…
The Psychology of Waste
In order to avoid the appearance of wastefulness people may be motivated to make choices that compromise their own self-interest. In Experiment 1 subjects learned that Mr Munn didn't take advantage of a ‘three-pack’ which would have enabled him to see three movies for $12, the regular price being $5 per movie. Most subjects predicted that after having attended two movies at the regular price, Mr Munn would then be unwilling to purchase a ticket t…
The Psychology of Windfall Gains
Determinants of judged validity
Costs and benefits of judgment errors: Implications for debiasing
Some authors questioned the ecological validity of judgmental biases demonstrated in the laboratory. One objection to these demonstrations is that evolutionary pressures would have rendered such maladaptive behaviors extinct if they had any impact in the «real world» attempt to show that even beneficial adaptations may have costs. I extend this argument to propose three types of judgment errors-strategy-based errors, association-based errors, and…
The generality of the relation between familiarity and judged validity
Using factual information of uncertain truth value as the stimulus material, previous investigators have found that repeated statements are rated more valid than non‐repeated statements. Experiments 1 and 1A were designed to determine if this effect would also occur for opinion statements and for statements initially rated either true or false. Subjects were exposed to a 108‐statement list one week and a second list of the same length a week late…
The psychology of sunk cost
Memory, retrieval, and contingency judgments
Piagetian Stage and Preferred Level of Complexity
The complexity preferences of 60 fifth-grade children were assessed using embedded-figure designs. Children were classified into different Piagetian stages of intellectual development according to their performance on four tasks: (a) conservation of quantity, (b) conservation of number, (c) composition of classes, and (d) egocentricity in the representation of objects. With transitional subjects deleted, the predicted Piagetian Group × Complexity…
Costs and benefits of judgment errors: Implications for debiasing
Some authors questioned the ecological validity of judgmental biases demonstrated in the laboratory. One objection to these demonstrations is that evolutionary pressures would have rendered such maladaptive behaviors extinct if they had any impact in the «real world» attempt to show that even beneficial adaptations may have costs. I extend this argument to propose three types of judgment errors-strategy-based errors, association-based errors, and…
The sunk cost and Concorde effects: Are humans less rational than lower animals
The cost effect is a maladaptive economic behavior that is manifested in a greater tendency to continue an endeavor once an investment in money, effort, or time has been made. The Concorde fallacy is another name for the cost effect, except that the former term has been applied strictly to lower animals, whereas the latter has been applied solely to humans. The authors contend that there are no unambiguous instances of the Concorde fallacy in low…
The generality of the relation between familiarity and judged validity
Using factual information of uncertain truth value as the stimulus material, previous investigators have found that repeated statements are rated more valid than non‐repeated statements. Experiments 1 and 1A were designed to determine if this effect would also occur for opinion statements and for statements initially rated either true or false. Subjects were exposed to a 108‐statement list one week and a second list of the same length a week late…
Determinants of judged validity
The recalcitrance of overconfidence and its contribution to decision aid neglect
Three experiments tested the hypothesis that people's overconfidence in the quality of their intuitive judgment strategies contributes to their reluctance to use helpful actuarial judgment aids. Participants engaged in a judgment task that required them to use five cues to decide whether a prospective juror favored physician‐assisted suicide. Participants had the opportunity to examine the judgments of a statistical equation that correctly classi…
Preference reversals in evaluations of cash versus non-cash incentives
A consensus-based transparency checklist
We present a consensus-based checklist to improve and document the transparency of research reports in social and behavioural research. An accompanying online application allows users to complete the form and generate a report that they can submit with their manuscript or post to a public repository
Comparing holistic and disaggregated ratings in the evaluation of scientific presentations
The National Institutes of Health refused to switch to disaggregated ratings as a method for evaluating proposals, because no contest between disaggregated and holistic ratings had ever used scientific materials as the to‐be‐rated stimuli. We designed two studies to fill this research void. Participants rated scientific convention presentations either using a holistic procedure in which one overall rating was given or a disaggregated procedure in…
The Effects of Expertise on the Hindsight Bias
We present data from three experiments examining the effects of objective and subjective expertise on the hindsight bias. In Experiment 1, participants read an essay about baseball or dogs and then answered questions about the baseball essay to the best of their ability, as if they had not read the essay, or to the best of their ability, although they read about dogs. Participants also completed a quiz about baseball rules and terminology, which …
Assessing the merits and faults of holistic and disaggregated judgments
Three studies explored both the advantages of and subjects' preferences for a disaggregated judgment procedure and a holistic one. The task in our first two studies consisted of evaluating colleges; the third study asked participants to evaluate job applicants. Holistic ratings consisted of providing an overall evaluation while considering all of the characteristics of the evaluation objects; disaggregated ratings consisted of evaluating each cue…
The effects of mental contamination on the hindsight bias: Source confusion determines success in disregarding knowledge
We present data from eight experiments in which we explored the effects of source confusion on the hindsight bias; participants' success in disregarding information when they were instructed to do so was affected by participants' level of source confusion. In Experiment 1 we demonstrated participants' failure to disregard Revolutionary War information they recently learned while reading an essay; this failure to discount was not affected by parti…
Memory, retrieval, and contingency judgments
Piagetian Stage and Preferred Level of Complexity
The complexity preferences of 60 fifth-grade children were assessed using embedded-figure designs. Children were classified into different Piagetian stages of intellectual development according to their performance on four tasks: (a) conservation of quantity, (b) conservation of number, (c) composition of classes, and (d) egocentricity in the representation of objects. With transitional subjects deleted, the predicted Piagetian Group × Complexity…
The psychology of sunk cost
Memory, retrieval, and contingency judgments
The generality of the relation between familiarity and judged validity
Using factual information of uncertain truth value as the stimulus material, previous investigators have found that repeated statements are rated more valid than non‐repeated statements. Experiments 1 and 1A were designed to determine if this effect would also occur for opinion statements and for statements initially rated either true or false. Subjects were exposed to a 108‐statement list one week and a second list of the same length a week late…
Determinants of judged validity
Costs and benefits of judgment errors: Implications for debiasing
Some authors questioned the ecological validity of judgmental biases demonstrated in the laboratory. One objection to these demonstrations is that evolutionary pressures would have rendered such maladaptive behaviors extinct if they had any impact in the «real world» attempt to show that even beneficial adaptations may have costs. I extend this argument to propose three types of judgment errors-strategy-based errors, association-based errors, and…
The Psychology of Windfall Gains
The Psychology of Waste
In order to avoid the appearance of wastefulness people may be motivated to make choices that compromise their own self-interest. In Experiment 1 subjects learned that Mr Munn didn't take advantage of a ‘three-pack’ which would have enabled him to see three movies for $12, the regular price being $5 per movie. Most subjects predicted that after having attended two movies at the regular price, Mr Munn would then be unwilling to purchase a ticket t…
The sunk cost and Concorde effects: Are humans less rational than lower animals
The cost effect is a maladaptive economic behavior that is manifested in a greater tendency to continue an endeavor once an investment in money, effort, or time has been made. The Concorde fallacy is another name for the cost effect, except that the former term has been applied strictly to lower animals, whereas the latter has been applied solely to humans. The authors contend that there are no unambiguous instances of the Concorde fallacy in low…
The role of probability of success estimates in the sunk cost effect
The sunk cost effect is manifested in a tendency to continue an endeavor once an investment has been made. Arkes and Blumer (1985) showed that a sunk cost increases one's estimated probability that the endeavor will succeed [p(s)]. Is this p(s) increase a cause of the sunk cost effect, a consequence of the effect, or both? In Experiment 1 participants read a scenario in which a sunk cost was or was not present. Half of each group read what the pr…
Target Article: Attributions of Implicit Prejudice, or "Would Jesse Jackson 'Fail' the Implicit Association Test?"
Measures of implicit prejudice are based on associations between race-related stimuli and valenced words. Reaction time (RT) data have been characterized as showing implicit prejudice when White names or faces are associated with positive concepts and African-American names or faces with negative concepts, compared to the reverse pairings. We offer three objections to the inferential leap from the comparative RT of different associations to the a…
The recalcitrance of overconfidence and its contribution to decision aid neglect
Three experiments tested the hypothesis that people's overconfidence in the quality of their intuitive judgment strategies contributes to their reluctance to use helpful actuarial judgment aids. Participants engaged in a judgment task that required them to use five cues to decide whether a prospective juror favored physician‐assisted suicide. Participants had the opportunity to examine the judgments of a statistical equation that correctly classi…
Comparing holistic and disaggregated ratings in the evaluation of scientific presentations
The National Institutes of Health refused to switch to disaggregated ratings as a method for evaluating proposals, because no contest between disaggregated and holistic ratings had ever used scientific materials as the to‐be‐rated stimuli. We designed two studies to fill this research void. Participants rated scientific convention presentations either using a holistic procedure in which one overall rating was given or a disaggregated procedure in…
The effects of mental contamination on the hindsight bias: Source confusion determines success in disregarding knowledge
We present data from eight experiments in which we explored the effects of source confusion on the hindsight bias; participants' success in disregarding information when they were instructed to do so was affected by participants' level of source confusion. In Experiment 1 we demonstrated participants' failure to disregard Revolutionary War information they recently learned while reading an essay; this failure to discount was not affected by parti…
Assessing the merits and faults of holistic and disaggregated judgments
Three studies explored both the advantages of and subjects' preferences for a disaggregated judgment procedure and a holistic one. The task in our first two studies consisted of evaluating colleges; the third study asked participants to evaluate job applicants. Holistic ratings consisted of providing an overall evaluation while considering all of the characteristics of the evaluation objects; disaggregated ratings consisted of evaluating each cue…
Preference reversals in evaluations of cash versus non-cash incentives
Disjunction Between Probability and Verdict in Juror Decision Making
Although the law assumes a close relation between the probability that a defendant committed the act in question and the ensuing verdict of the jurors, prior research has shown this assumption to be often violated. We present five experiments designed to show that factors that influence probability also influence verdict, but other factors are capable of directly producing changes in verdict without affecting probability. In Experiment 1, we repl…
Emerging Perspectives on Judgment and Decision Research
A levels of processing interpretation of dual-system theories of judgment and decision making
Recently there has been spirited disagreement about the merits of dual-system theories of higher cognition. I suggest that this dispute is very similar to the 1970s dispute between two-store theories of memory and levels of processing theory. The two-store or “box” theorists stipulated that short-term memory and long-term memory stores were quite dissimilar and therefore represented separate memory stores. Levels of processing theorists disputed …
The Effects of Expertise on the Hindsight Bias
We present data from three experiments examining the effects of objective and subjective expertise on the hindsight bias. In Experiment 1, participants read an essay about baseball or dogs and then answered questions about the baseball essay to the best of their ability, as if they had not read the essay, or to the best of their ability, although they read about dogs. Participants also completed a quiz about baseball rules and terminology, which …
Perceptions of Gender, Race, and Anti-Conservative Discrimination on Campus
A consensus-based transparency checklist
We present a consensus-based checklist to improve and document the transparency of research reports in social and behavioural research. An accompanying online application allows users to complete the form and generate a report that they can submit with their manuscript or post to a public repository
Author Correction: A consensus-based transparency checklist
An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper
Psychology (20 works) · Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics (14 works) · Social Psychology (14 works) · Cognitive psychology (13 works) · Economics (10 works) · Social Psychology (8 works) · Experimental Behavioral Economics Studies (7 works) · Computer Science (5 works) · Microeconomics (5 works) · Cognition (4 works)