Emily Hawkins
Biographic Data
| ID | 178288 |
|---|---|
| NAME | Emily Hawkins |
| GIVEN NAMES | Emily |
| FAMILY NAME | Hawkins |
| SIGNATURE | HAWKINS E |
| AFFILIATIONS | National Centre for Atmospheric Science |
| ORCID | 0000-0001-9477-3677 |
| VERIFIED | Yes |
| TOTAL WORKS | 21 |
| TOTAL CITATIONS | 0 |
| AUTHOR COUNT | 21 |
| EDITOR COUNT | 0 |
| FIRST PUBLICATION YEAR | 1847 |
| LATEST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2025 |
| H-INDEX | 0 |
Importance of beginning industrial-era climate simulations in the eighteenth century
Climate simulations of the industrial era typically start in 1850, using the first fifty years as a baseline for ‘pre-industrial’ climate. However, the period immediately prior to 1850 is of particular interest due to early human influence and heightened volcanic activity, the latter of which led to cooler global temperatures than those observed in the subsequent historical period. In this study, we present a suite of Earth system model simulatio…
Emergence of multivariate climate change signals
The emergence of a climate change signal relative to background variability is a useful metric for understanding local changes and their consequences. Studies have identified emergent signals of climate change, particularly in temperature-based indices with weaker signals found for precipitation metrics. In this study, we adapt climate analogue methods to examine multivariate climate change emergence over the historical period. We use seasonal te…
Ipcc, 2023: Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report, Summary for Policymakers. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Chang…
The Summary for Policymakers (SPM) of the Synthesis Report (SYR) of the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), is a component of the SYR which provides a policy-relevant but policy-neutral summary of the SYR. It is consistent with the Sections of the SYR and is approved line by line by the Governments at a plenary session of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
Ipcc, 2023: Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Core Writing Team, H. L…
The Synthesis Report (SYR) is a stand-alone synthesis of the most policy-relevant evidence from the scientific, technical, and socio-economic literature assessed in the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The SYR distils and integrates the main findings of the three reports of the Working Groups of the IPCC during the AR6, and the three AR6 Special Reports into a concise document. It consists of …
Fear of Religious Hate Crime Victimization and the Residual Effects of Anti-Semitism and Islamophobia
An individual’s fear of hate crime victimization might be partially explained by direct experiences that influence their assessment of victimization risk. In some cases, though, fear of hate crime victimization is driven not by direct, personal experiences, but by historical and contemporary trauma suffered by those holding the targeted status. Using data from the 2019 nationally representative Experiences with Religious Discrimination Study (ERD…
Empirical evidence for multidecadal scale global atmospheric electric circuit modulation by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation
The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) modifies precipitation patterns across the planet. Charge separation in disturbed weather and thunderstorms drives the global atmospheric electric circuit (GEC), hence ENSO-induced precipitation changes are anticipated to affect the global circuit. By analysing historical atmospheric electricity data using a new data processing procedure based on the Carnegie curve, signals correlated with ENSO sea surface …
Changes to population-based emergence of climate change from CMIP5 to CMIP6
The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) model ensemble projects climate change emerging soonest and most strongly at low latitudes, regardless of the emissions pathway taken. In terms of signal-to-noise (S/N) ratios of average annual temperatures, these models project earlier and stronger emergence under the Shared Socio-economic Pathways than the previous generation did under corresponding Representative Concentration Pathways.…
Studying climate stabilization at Paris Agreement levels
Detectability of Covid-19 global emissions reductions in local CO 2 concentration measurements
It is estimated that global anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions reduced by up to 12% at the start of 2020 compared to recent years due to the COVID-19 related downturn in economic activity. Despite the large decrease in CO 2 emissions, no reduction in the trend in background atmospheric CO 2 concentrations has been detected. So, how long would it take for sustained COVID-19 CO 2 emission reductions to be detected in daily and monthly a…
Towards seasonal Arctic shipping route predictions
The continuing decline in Arctic sea-ice will likely lead to increased human activity and opportunities for shipping in the region, suggesting that seasonal predictions of route openings will become ever more important. Here we present results from a set of 'perfect model' experiments to assess the predictability characteristics of the opening of Arctic sea routes. We find skilful predictions of the upcoming summer shipping season can be made fro…
Seasonal cycles enhance disparities between low- and high-income countries in exposure to monthly temperature emergence with future warming
A common proxy for the adaptive capacity of a community to the impacts of future climate change is the range of climate variability which they have experienced in the recent past. This study presents an interpretation of such a framework for monthly temperatures. Our results demonstrate that emergence into genuinely 'unfamiliar' climates will occur across nearly all months of the year for low-income nations by the second half of the 21st century …
Poorest countries experience earlier anthropogenic emergence of daily temperature extremes
Understanding how the emergence of the anthropogenic warming signal from the noise of internal variability translates to changes in extreme event occurrence is of crucial societal importance. By utilising simulations of cumulative carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions and temperature changes from eleven earth system models, we demonstrate that the inherently lower internal variability found at tropical latitudes results in large increases in the frequ…
The timing of anthropogenic emergence in simulated climate extremes
Determining the time of emergence of climates altered from their natural state by anthropogenic influences can help inform the development of adaptation and mitigation strategies to climate change. Previous studies have examined the time of emergence of climate averages. However, at the global scale, the emergence of changes in extreme events, which have the greatest societal impacts, has not been investigated before. Based on state-of-the-art cl…
Reliability of regional climate model trends
A necessary condition for a good probabilistic forecast is that the forecast system is shown to be reliable: forecast probabilities should equal observed probabilities verified over a large number of cases. As climate change trends are now emerging from the natural variability, we can apply this concept to climate predictions and compute the reliability of simulated local and regional temperature and precipitation trends (1950–2011) in a recent m…
The upper end of climate model temperature projections is inconsistent with past warming
Climate models predict a large range of possible future temperatures for a particular scenario of future emissions of greenhouse gases and other anthropogenic forcings of climate. Given that further warming in coming decades could threaten increasing risks of climatic disruption, it is important to determine whether model projections are consistent with temperature changes already observed. This can be achieved by quantifying the extent to which …
Influences of increasing temperature on Indian wheat: Quantifying limits to predictability
As climate changes, temperatures will play an increasing role in determining crop yield. Both climate model error and lack of constrained physiological thresholds limit the predictability of yield. We used a perturbed-parameter climate model ensemble with two methods of bias-correction as input to a regional-scale wheat simulation model over India to examine future yields. This model configuration accounted for uncertainty in climate, planting da…
The potential to narrow uncertainty in projections of regional precipitation change
The Potential to Narrow Uncertainty in Regional Climate Predictions
Faced by the realities of a changing climate, decision makers in a wide variety of organizations are increasingly seeking quantitative predictions of regional and local climate. An important issue for these decision makers, and for organizations that fund climate research, is what is the potential for climate science to deliver improvements—especially reductions in uncertainty—in such predictions? Uncertainty in climate predictions arises from th…
A Dictionary of the Hawaiian Language
Notices of the Mint at Shrewsbury
An Account of Coins and Treasure Found in Cuerdale
No prominent works on this page.
An Account of Coins and Treasure Found in Cuerdale
Notices of the Mint at Shrewsbury
A Dictionary of the Hawaiian Language
The Potential to Narrow Uncertainty in Regional Climate Predictions
Faced by the realities of a changing climate, decision makers in a wide variety of organizations are increasingly seeking quantitative predictions of regional and local climate. An important issue for these decision makers, and for organizations that fund climate research, is what is the potential for climate science to deliver improvements—especially reductions in uncertainty—in such predictions? Uncertainty in climate predictions arises from th…
The potential to narrow uncertainty in projections of regional precipitation change
Reliability of regional climate model trends
A necessary condition for a good probabilistic forecast is that the forecast system is shown to be reliable: forecast probabilities should equal observed probabilities verified over a large number of cases. As climate change trends are now emerging from the natural variability, we can apply this concept to climate predictions and compute the reliability of simulated local and regional temperature and precipitation trends (1950–2011) in a recent m…
The upper end of climate model temperature projections is inconsistent with past warming
Climate models predict a large range of possible future temperatures for a particular scenario of future emissions of greenhouse gases and other anthropogenic forcings of climate. Given that further warming in coming decades could threaten increasing risks of climatic disruption, it is important to determine whether model projections are consistent with temperature changes already observed. This can be achieved by quantifying the extent to which …
Influences of increasing temperature on Indian wheat: Quantifying limits to predictability
As climate changes, temperatures will play an increasing role in determining crop yield. Both climate model error and lack of constrained physiological thresholds limit the predictability of yield. We used a perturbed-parameter climate model ensemble with two methods of bias-correction as input to a regional-scale wheat simulation model over India to examine future yields. This model configuration accounted for uncertainty in climate, planting da…
The timing of anthropogenic emergence in simulated climate extremes
Determining the time of emergence of climates altered from their natural state by anthropogenic influences can help inform the development of adaptation and mitigation strategies to climate change. Previous studies have examined the time of emergence of climate averages. However, at the global scale, the emergence of changes in extreme events, which have the greatest societal impacts, has not been investigated before. Based on state-of-the-art cl…
Poorest countries experience earlier anthropogenic emergence of daily temperature extremes
Understanding how the emergence of the anthropogenic warming signal from the noise of internal variability translates to changes in extreme event occurrence is of crucial societal importance. By utilising simulations of cumulative carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions and temperature changes from eleven earth system models, we demonstrate that the inherently lower internal variability found at tropical latitudes results in large increases in the frequ…
Towards seasonal Arctic shipping route predictions
The continuing decline in Arctic sea-ice will likely lead to increased human activity and opportunities for shipping in the region, suggesting that seasonal predictions of route openings will become ever more important. Here we present results from a set of 'perfect model' experiments to assess the predictability characteristics of the opening of Arctic sea routes. We find skilful predictions of the upcoming summer shipping season can be made fro…
Seasonal cycles enhance disparities between low- and high-income countries in exposure to monthly temperature emergence with future warming
A common proxy for the adaptive capacity of a community to the impacts of future climate change is the range of climate variability which they have experienced in the recent past. This study presents an interpretation of such a framework for monthly temperatures. Our results demonstrate that emergence into genuinely 'unfamiliar' climates will occur across nearly all months of the year for low-income nations by the second half of the 21st century …
Studying climate stabilization at Paris Agreement levels
Detectability of Covid-19 global emissions reductions in local CO 2 concentration measurements
It is estimated that global anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions reduced by up to 12% at the start of 2020 compared to recent years due to the COVID-19 related downturn in economic activity. Despite the large decrease in CO 2 emissions, no reduction in the trend in background atmospheric CO 2 concentrations has been detected. So, how long would it take for sustained COVID-19 CO 2 emission reductions to be detected in daily and monthly a…
Empirical evidence for multidecadal scale global atmospheric electric circuit modulation by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation
The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) modifies precipitation patterns across the planet. Charge separation in disturbed weather and thunderstorms drives the global atmospheric electric circuit (GEC), hence ENSO-induced precipitation changes are anticipated to affect the global circuit. By analysing historical atmospheric electricity data using a new data processing procedure based on the Carnegie curve, signals correlated with ENSO sea surface …
Changes to population-based emergence of climate change from CMIP5 to CMIP6
The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) model ensemble projects climate change emerging soonest and most strongly at low latitudes, regardless of the emissions pathway taken. In terms of signal-to-noise (S/N) ratios of average annual temperatures, these models project earlier and stronger emergence under the Shared Socio-economic Pathways than the previous generation did under corresponding Representative Concentration Pathways.…
Ipcc, 2023: Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report, Summary for Policymakers. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Chang…
The Summary for Policymakers (SPM) of the Synthesis Report (SYR) of the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), is a component of the SYR which provides a policy-relevant but policy-neutral summary of the SYR. It is consistent with the Sections of the SYR and is approved line by line by the Governments at a plenary session of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
Ipcc, 2023: Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Core Writing Team, H. L…
The Synthesis Report (SYR) is a stand-alone synthesis of the most policy-relevant evidence from the scientific, technical, and socio-economic literature assessed in the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The SYR distils and integrates the main findings of the three reports of the Working Groups of the IPCC during the AR6, and the three AR6 Special Reports into a concise document. It consists of …
Fear of Religious Hate Crime Victimization and the Residual Effects of Anti-Semitism and Islamophobia
An individual’s fear of hate crime victimization might be partially explained by direct experiences that influence their assessment of victimization risk. In some cases, though, fear of hate crime victimization is driven not by direct, personal experiences, but by historical and contemporary trauma suffered by those holding the targeted status. Using data from the 2019 nationally representative Experiences with Religious Discrimination Study (ERD…
Emergence of multivariate climate change signals
The emergence of a climate change signal relative to background variability is a useful metric for understanding local changes and their consequences. Studies have identified emergent signals of climate change, particularly in temperature-based indices with weaker signals found for precipitation metrics. In this study, we adapt climate analogue methods to examine multivariate climate change emergence over the historical period. We use seasonal te…
Importance of beginning industrial-era climate simulations in the eighteenth century
Climate simulations of the industrial era typically start in 1850, using the first fifty years as a baseline for ‘pre-industrial’ climate. However, the period immediately prior to 1850 is of particular interest due to early human influence and heightened volcanic activity, the latter of which led to cooler global temperatures than those observed in the subsequent historical period. In this study, we present a suite of Earth system model simulatio…
Environmental Science (15 works) · Climate change (14 works) · Climatology (14 works) · Climate variability and models (13 works) · Geology (10 works) · Climate model (9 works) · Geography (9 works) · Global warming (7 works) · Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations (7 works) · Atmospheric sciences (6 works)