Juan David Gutiérrez
Biographic Data
| ID | 1783846 |
|---|---|
| NAME | Juan David Gutiérrez |
| GIVEN NAMES | Juan David |
| FAMILY NAME | Gutiérrez |
| SIGNATURE | GUTIÉRREZ J D |
| AFFILIATIONS | Universidad De Santander |
| ORCID | 0000-0002-6120-941X |
| VERIFIED | Yes |
| TOTAL WORKS | 10 |
| TOTAL CITATIONS | 4 |
| AUTHOR COUNT | 10 |
| EDITOR COUNT | 0 |
| FIRST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2014 |
| LATEST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2026 |
| H-INDEX | 1 |
Extreme weather events and vector-borne diseases: Quantifying the epidemiological effect of Hurricane Julia on malaria transmission in Colombia
Extreme climatic events, such as hurricanes, are known drivers of vector-borne disease outbreaks; however, quantifying their causal effect remains challenging due to complex spatio-temporal dynamics and unobserved confounders. This study estimates the causal effect of Hurricane Julia (October 2022) on malaria cases in Colombian municipalities. We employed a Generalized Synthetic Control (GSC) framework using the fect package in R to estimate the …
Anthropogenic landscapes and vector-borne disease dynamics: Unveiling the complex interplay between Human Footprint and disease transmission in Colombia
Anthropogenic landscape transformations are fundamentally reshaping the epidemiology of vector-borne diseases (VBDs), yet their causal impacts remain poorly quantified across diverse ecological and socio-economic contexts. This study evaluates the causal effect of the Human Footprint (HFP) on the transmission dynamics of malaria, dengue, and visceral leishmaniasis in Colombia. We conducted an ecological analysis using municipal-level retrospectiv…
Lagged effect of temperature and rainfall on malaria incidence in Colombia (2013–2023): An approach with Bayesian spatiotemporal adjustment
Malaria remains a major public health challenge in Colombia, with a significant increase in cases in recent years. Climate variables—particularly temperature and rainfall—are key drivers of malaria transmission, yet their lagged, non-linear effects across space and time are poorly characterized in the Colombian context. We conducted an ecological, spatiotemporal analysis using weekly malaria case data from 970 municipalities in Colombia (2013–202…
Integrating causal inference and machine learning to quantify climate-malaria relationships: Evidence of temperature and rainfall thresholds from Colombian municipalities
Rainfall and temperature are key climate determinants of malaria incidence; yet their causal exposure-response curves on malaria incidence across the entire Colombian territory remain unquantified. We estimated the effects of rainfall and temperature on malaria incidence at the municipal scale from 2007 to 2023. We conducted an ecological observational study in 969 Colombian municipalities located below 1,600 meters. The monthly Standardized Inci…
Effect of sea surface temperature in El Niño regions on dengue dynamics in Colombia: Evidence from causal machine learning
Dengue fever is among the most rapidly expanding vector-borne diseases globally, with Colombia ranking among the most affected countries in the Americas. Although previous research has linked climate variability and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) episodes to dengue dynamics, the direct causal effect of sea surface temperature (SST) in El Niño regions remains insufficiently explored. We conducted a retrospective ecological analysis using mont…
Sea surface temperature modulates El Niño and La Niña driven leptospirosis patterns: Evidence from causal machine learning in Colombia
Leptospirosis is a zoonotic disease prevalent in tropical regions influenced by climatic factors such as precipitation and soil moisture, which are regulated by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). This study examines the causal relationship between El Niño and La Niña episodes and leptospirosis cases in Colombia at the municipal level from 2007 to 2023. Using an ecological longitudinal design, we analyzed laboratory-confirmed cases from the …
Stochastic treatment regimes in climate-health research: Reassessing malaria risk under warming scenarios in Colombia
Malaria remains a significant public health challenge, mainly because climate change is altering transmission dynamics. This study investigates the relationship between rising temperatures and malaria cases across the 100 municipalities in Colombia with the highest incidence from 2007 to 2023. We employed causal machine learning techniques to analyze how incremental temperature impacts malaria incidence while controlling for valid confounding var…
Spatiotemporal analysis of leptospirosis in Colombia from 2007 to 2021. An environmental health metrics approach
Leptospirosis is a global zoonosis and environmental health problem because of its strong association with environmental factors. Although spatiotemporal statistics can estimate area-specific risk indicators, very few spatiotemporal analyses are done at the municipality level for extensive periods in tropical and subtropical regions, including Colombia. This study aims to assess the spatiotemporal distribution of leptospirosis in Colombia to iden…
Environmental and socioeconomic determinants of leptospirosis incidence in Colombia
Human leptospirosis is an infection that most often affects tropical countries. Since 2007, Colombia requires the notification of disease cases, enabling the observation of an increase in cases in recent years. The objectives of this article were to analyze environmental and socioeconomic variables and to evaluate their relationship with human leptospirosis cases. This is an ecological study on human leptospirosis cases aggregated by municipality…
Smallholders’ Agricultural Cooperatives in Colombia: Vehicles for Rural Development
This article focuses on assessing whether the main conditions required for smallholders’ agricultural cooperatives to successfully develop are currently met in Colombia. The main objective is to formulate policy implications on how the State may contribute to facilitate that these organizations constitute vehicles for rural development. The article argues that the conditions that facilitate the development of agricultural cooperatives are not ade…
Smallholders’ Agricultural Cooperatives in Colombia: Vehicles for Rural Development
This article focuses on assessing whether the main conditions required for smallholders’ agricultural cooperatives to successfully develop are currently met in Colombia. The main objective is to formulate policy implications on how the State may contribute to facilitate that these organizations constitute vehicles for rural development. The article argues that the conditions that facilitate the development of agricultural cooperatives are not ade…
Smallholders’ Agricultural Cooperatives in Colombia: Vehicles for Rural Development
This article focuses on assessing whether the main conditions required for smallholders’ agricultural cooperatives to successfully develop are currently met in Colombia. The main objective is to formulate policy implications on how the State may contribute to facilitate that these organizations constitute vehicles for rural development. The article argues that the conditions that facilitate the development of agricultural cooperatives are not ade…
Environmental and socioeconomic determinants of leptospirosis incidence in Colombia
Human leptospirosis is an infection that most often affects tropical countries. Since 2007, Colombia requires the notification of disease cases, enabling the observation of an increase in cases in recent years. The objectives of this article were to analyze environmental and socioeconomic variables and to evaluate their relationship with human leptospirosis cases. This is an ecological study on human leptospirosis cases aggregated by municipality…
Sea surface temperature modulates El Niño and La Niña driven leptospirosis patterns: Evidence from causal machine learning in Colombia
Leptospirosis is a zoonotic disease prevalent in tropical regions influenced by climatic factors such as precipitation and soil moisture, which are regulated by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). This study examines the causal relationship between El Niño and La Niña episodes and leptospirosis cases in Colombia at the municipal level from 2007 to 2023. Using an ecological longitudinal design, we analyzed laboratory-confirmed cases from the …
Stochastic treatment regimes in climate-health research: Reassessing malaria risk under warming scenarios in Colombia
Malaria remains a significant public health challenge, mainly because climate change is altering transmission dynamics. This study investigates the relationship between rising temperatures and malaria cases across the 100 municipalities in Colombia with the highest incidence from 2007 to 2023. We employed causal machine learning techniques to analyze how incremental temperature impacts malaria incidence while controlling for valid confounding var…
Spatiotemporal analysis of leptospirosis in Colombia from 2007 to 2021. An environmental health metrics approach
Leptospirosis is a global zoonosis and environmental health problem because of its strong association with environmental factors. Although spatiotemporal statistics can estimate area-specific risk indicators, very few spatiotemporal analyses are done at the municipality level for extensive periods in tropical and subtropical regions, including Colombia. This study aims to assess the spatiotemporal distribution of leptospirosis in Colombia to iden…
Extreme weather events and vector-borne diseases: Quantifying the epidemiological effect of Hurricane Julia on malaria transmission in Colombia
Extreme climatic events, such as hurricanes, are known drivers of vector-borne disease outbreaks; however, quantifying their causal effect remains challenging due to complex spatio-temporal dynamics and unobserved confounders. This study estimates the causal effect of Hurricane Julia (October 2022) on malaria cases in Colombian municipalities. We employed a Generalized Synthetic Control (GSC) framework using the fect package in R to estimate the …
Anthropogenic landscapes and vector-borne disease dynamics: Unveiling the complex interplay between Human Footprint and disease transmission in Colombia
Anthropogenic landscape transformations are fundamentally reshaping the epidemiology of vector-borne diseases (VBDs), yet their causal impacts remain poorly quantified across diverse ecological and socio-economic contexts. This study evaluates the causal effect of the Human Footprint (HFP) on the transmission dynamics of malaria, dengue, and visceral leishmaniasis in Colombia. We conducted an ecological analysis using municipal-level retrospectiv…
Lagged effect of temperature and rainfall on malaria incidence in Colombia (2013–2023): An approach with Bayesian spatiotemporal adjustment
Malaria remains a major public health challenge in Colombia, with a significant increase in cases in recent years. Climate variables—particularly temperature and rainfall—are key drivers of malaria transmission, yet their lagged, non-linear effects across space and time are poorly characterized in the Colombian context. We conducted an ecological, spatiotemporal analysis using weekly malaria case data from 970 municipalities in Colombia (2013–202…
Integrating causal inference and machine learning to quantify climate-malaria relationships: Evidence of temperature and rainfall thresholds from Colombian municipalities
Rainfall and temperature are key climate determinants of malaria incidence; yet their causal exposure-response curves on malaria incidence across the entire Colombian territory remain unquantified. We estimated the effects of rainfall and temperature on malaria incidence at the municipal scale from 2007 to 2023. We conducted an ecological observational study in 969 Colombian municipalities located below 1,600 meters. The monthly Standardized Inci…
Effect of sea surface temperature in El Niño regions on dengue dynamics in Colombia: Evidence from causal machine learning
Dengue fever is among the most rapidly expanding vector-borne diseases globally, with Colombia ranking among the most affected countries in the Americas. Although previous research has linked climate variability and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) episodes to dengue dynamics, the direct causal effect of sea surface temperature (SST) in El Niño regions remains insufficiently explored. We conducted a retrospective ecological analysis using mont…
Malaria Research and Control (6 works) · Mosquito-borne diseases and control (6 works) · Malaria (5 works) · Public health (5 works) · Confounding (3 works) · Leptospirosis (3 works) · Leptospirosis research and findings (3 works) · Zoonotic diseases and public health (3 works) · Causal inference (2 works) · Climate change (2 works)