M Den Elzen

Biographic Data

ID	1822805
NAME	M Den Elzen
GIVEN NAMES	M Den
FAMILY NAME	Elzen
SIGNATURE	ELZEN M D
AFFILIATIONS	Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
ORCID	0000-0002-5128-8150
VERIFIED	Yes
TOTAL WORKS	35
TOTAL CITATIONS	134
WORKS AS AUTHOR	35
WORKS AS EDITOR	0
FIRST PUBLICATION YEAR	1996
LATEST PUBLICATION YEAR	2025
H-INDEX	6

Navigating the black box of fair national emissions targets
Open AccessMark Dekker, Andries F Hof et al.ARTICLENature Climate Change2025
Current national emissions targets fall short of the Paris Agreement goals, prompting the need for equitable ways to close this gap. Fair emissions allowances rely on effort-sharing formulas based on fairness principles, yielding diverse outcomes. These variations, shaped by normative decisions, complicate policymaking and legal assessments of climate targets. Here we provide up-to-date numbers, comprehensively accounting for three dimensions—phy…
Reducing sectoral hard-to-abate emissions to limit reliance on carbon dioxide removal
Open AccessOreane Y Edelenbosch, Andries F Hof et al.ARTICLENature Climate Change2024
To reach net-zero greenhouse gas targets, carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies are required to compensate for residual emissions in the hard-to-abate sectors. However, dependencies on CDR technologies involve environmental, technical and social risks, particularly related to increased land requirements for afforestation and bioenergy crops. Here, using scenarios consistent with the 1.5 °C target, we show that demand and technological interve…
How the Russian–Ukrainian war reshapes the climate policy context
Open AccessMathijs Harmsen, Dimitris Fragkiadakis et al.ARTICLEEnvironmental Research Letters2024
The Russian military aggression against Ukraine has had significant global impacts on energy security, economy and geopolitics. The 2022 global energy crisis raises questions about how the war affects the energy transition and global climate policy. However, there are limited studies that incorporate its effects into self-consistent projections of alternative scenarios. This scenario study uses two leading macro-economic models and one integrated…
The impact of policy and model uncertainties on emissions projections of the Paris Agreement pledges
Open AccessM Den Elzen, Ioannis Dafnomilis et al.ARTICLEEnvironmental Research Letters2023
Tracking progress towards the Paris Agreement climate goal requires understanding the 2030 emission levels implied by countries’ National Determined Contributions (NDCs). However, key uncertainties and assumptions impact greenhouse gas (GHG) emission projections implied by the NDCs. This study analyses this impact, both globally and for major emitting countries. We find that the assessed uncertainties markedly affect global GHG emission projectio…
Comparing the Sequence of Climate Change Mitigation Targets and Policies in Major Emitting Economies
Open AccessLeonardo Nascimento, M Den Elzen et al.ARTICLEJournal of Comparative Policy…2023Cited by: 2References: 1
The Paris Agreement requires that countries submit and update their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) to mitigate global climate change. This study projected greenhouse gas emissions to evaluate the progress of 25 countries towards their original and updated NDCs. It found that almost one-quarter of the countries submitted more ambitious, updated NDCs without adopting sufficient policies to meet their original targets. Additionally, in m…
Developing scenarios in the context of the Paris Agreement and application in the integrated assessment model Image
Open AccessMark Roelfsema, Heleen Van Soest et al.ARTICLEEnvironmental Science & Policy2022Cited by: 2References: 12
The framework presented in this study aims to provide insights into how climate policy is represented in integrated assessment models, responding to the call to link model scenarios with concepts used in public policy literature and related fields. As such, it contributes to increased transparency leading to better understanding across disciplines and communication about the relevance of model outcomes with policymakers. The framework categorises…
Wave of net zero emission targets opens window to meeting the Paris Agreement
Open AccessNiklas Höhne, Matthew Gidden et al.ARTICLENature Climate Change2021
Greenhouse gas emission scenarios in nine key non-G20 countries
Open AccessTakeshi Kuramochi, Leonardo Nascimento et al.ARTICLEEnvironmental Science & Policy2021Cited by: 3References: 2
This study compares greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions projections in 2030 under current policies and those under 2030 mitigation targets for nine key non-G20 countries, that collectively account for about 5 % of global total emissions today. These include the four largest non-G20 fossil CO2 emitting Parties to the UN climate convention pre- Paris Agreement (Iran, Kazakhstan, Thailand and Ukraine) and one of the largest land-use GHG emitters in the w…
Implications of various effort-sharing approaches for national carbon budgets and emission pathways
Open AccessNicole J van den Berg, Heleen Van Soest et al.ARTICLEClimatic Change2020
The bottom-up approach of the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) in the Paris Agreement has led countries to self-determine their greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction targets. The planned ‘ratcheting-up’ process, which aims to ensure that the NDCs comply with the overall goal of limiting global average temperature increase to well below 2 °C or even 1.5 °C, will most likely include some evaluation of ‘fairness’ of these reduction targe…
Taking stock of national climate policies to evaluate implementation of the Paris Agreement
Open AccessMark Roelfsema, Heleen Van Soest et al.ARTICLENature Communications2020
Many countries have implemented national climate policies to accomplish pledged Nationally Determined Contributions and to contribute to the temperature objectives of the Paris Agreement on climate change. In 2023, the global stocktake will assess the combined effort of countries. Here, based on a public policy database and a multi-model scenario analysis, we show that implementation of current policies leaves a median emission gap of 22.4 to 28.…
Exploring fair and ambitious mitigation contributions under the Paris Agreement goals
Open AccessXunzhang Pan, M Den Elzen et al.ARTICLEEnvironmental Science & Policy2017Cited by: 17References: 3
Paris Agreement climate proposals need a boost to keep warming well below 2 °C
Open AccessJoeri Rogelj, M Den Elzen et al.ARTICLENature2016
The EU 40 % greenhouse gas emission reduction target by 2030 in perspective
Open AccessAndries F Hof, M Den Elzen et al.ARTICLEInternational Environmental…2016Cited by: 3References: 6
The implications of carbon dioxide and methane exchange for the heavy mitigation RCP2.6 scenario under two metrics
Open AccessChris Huntingford, Jason Lowe et al.ARTICLEEnvironmental Science & Policy2015Cited by: 2References: 1
Greenhouse gas emissions associated with Representative Concentration Pathway RCP2.6 could limit global warming to around or below a 2 °C increase since pre-industrial times. However this scenario implies very large and rapid reductions in both carbon dioxide (CO2) and non-CO2 emissions, and suggests a need to understand available flexibility between how different greenhouse gases might be abated. There is a growing interest in developing a great…
Regional GHG reduction targets based on effort sharing
Niklas Höhne, M Den Elzen et al.ARTICLEClimate Policy2014
Over 40 studies that analyse future GHG emissions allowances or reduction targets for different regions based on a wide range of effort-sharing approaches and long-term concentration stabilization levels are compared. This updates previous work undertaken for the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Regional reduction targets differ significantly for each effort-sharing approach. For example, in the Organisat…
The effect of updated pledges and business-as-usual projections, and new agreed rules on expected global greenhouse gas emissions in 2020
Andries F Hof, M Den Elzen et al.ARTICLEEnvironmental Science & Policy2013Cited by: 1References: 1
Rcp2.6
Open AccessDetlef P Van Vuuren, Elke Stehfest et al.ARTICLEClimatic Change2011
The RCP2.6 emission and concentration pathway is representative of the literature on mitigation scenarios aiming to limit the increase of global mean temperature to 2°C. These scenarios form the low end of the scenario literature in terms of emissions and radiative forcing. They often show negative emissions from energy use in the second half of the 21st century. The RCP2.6 scenario is shown to be technically feasible in the IMAGE integrated asse…
Predictability, equitability and adequacy of post-2012 international climate financing proposals
Open AccessAndries F Hof, M Den Elzen et al.ARTICLEEnvironmental Science & Policy2011Cited by: 4References: 6
The emissions gap between the Copenhagen pledges and the 2°C climate goal
Open AccessM Den Elzen, Michel G J den Elzen et al.ARTICLEGlobal Environmental Change2011Cited by: 11References: 1
A quantitative minimax regret approach to climate change
Open AccessAndries F Hof, Detlef P Van Vuuren et al.ARTICLEEcological Economics2010
The Copenhagen Accord
Open AccessM Den Elzen, Michel G J den Elzen et al.ARTICLEEnvironmental Science & Policy2010Cited by: 5References: 1
Climate benefits of changing diet
Open AccessElke Stehfest, Lex Bouwman et al.ARTICLEClimatic Change2009
The effect of different mitigation strategies on international financing of adaptation
Open AccessAndries F Hof, Kelly de Bruin et al.ARTICLEEnvironmental Science & Policy2009Cited by: 3References: 7
Sharing the burden of financing adaptation to climate change
Open AccessRob Dellink, M Den Elzen et al.ARTICLEGlobal Environmental Change2009Cited by: 37References: 4
Environmental effectiveness and economic consequences of fragmented versus universal regimes
Open AccessAndries F Hof, M Den Elzen et al.ARTICLEInternational Environmental…2008Cited by: 3References: 7