Naohiro Ogawa
Biographic Data
| ID | 192891 |
|---|---|
| NAME | Naohiro Ogawa |
| GIVEN NAMES | Naohiro |
| FAMILY NAME | Ogawa |
| SIGNATURE | OGAWA N |
| AFFILIATIONS | Nihon University |
| VERIFIED | No |
| TOTAL WORKS | 30 |
| TOTAL CITATIONS | 205 |
| AUTHOR COUNT | 28 |
| EDITOR COUNT | 2 |
| FIRST PUBLICATION YEAR | 1978 |
| LATEST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2014 |
| H-INDEX | 8 |
Is low fertility really a problem? Population aging, dependency, and consumption
Longer lives and fertility far below the replacement level of 2.1 births per woman are leading to rapid population aging in many countries. Many observers are concerned that aging will adversely affect public finances and standards of living. Analysis of newly available National Transfer Accounts data for 40 countries shows that fertility well above replacement would typically be most beneficial for government budgets. However, fertility near rep…
Multidimensional Life Table Estimation of the Total Fertility Rate and Its Components
Using discrete-time survival models of parity progression and illustrative data from the Philippines, this article develops a multivariate multidimensional life table of nuptiality and fertility, the dimensions of which are age, parity, and duration in parity. The measures calculated from this life table include total fertility rate (TRF), total marital fertility rate (TMFR), parity progression ratios (PPR), age-specific fertility rates, mean and…
Low fertility, human capital, and economic growth: The importance of financial education and job retraining
International research has shown that workers have a rather low level of financial literacy. Financial literacy is associated with lifetime planning and saving for retirement. This article focuses on the role of financial literacy in the demand for human c
Explaining Trends in Coresidence of Newly Married Couples With Parents in Japan
This paper attempts to explain both the long-term downward trend in coresidence of newly married Japanese couples with parents and the surprisingly large and sustained upturn in coresidence precipitated by the 1998 economic crisis. A multivariate analysis shows that the main causes of the long-term decline in coresidence at time of marriage are the declining percentage of arranged marriages, rising mean age at marriage for wives, rising levels of…
Population Aging and Immigration in Japan
This article discusses the development of immigration policies in postwar Japan by taking into consideration the long-term socioeconomic and demographic transformations of Japanese society. We demonstrate how Japan is experiencing the tension between the evident need of domestic enterprises for unskilled labor and the stated policies of not admitting foreign unskilled workers. We also point out that by the time Japan is ready to open its door to …
Aging in Advanced Industrial States
Population Decline, Labor Force Stability, and the Future of the Japanese Economy
Multivariate analysis of parity progression–based measures of the total fertility rate and its components
This article describes a methodology for applying a discrete-time survival model—the complementary log-log model—to estimate effects of socioeconomic variables on (1) the total fertility rate and its components and (2) trends in the total fertility rate and its components. For the methodology to be applicable, the total fertility rate (TFR) must be calculated from parity progression ratios (PPRs). The components of the TFR are PPRs, the total mar…
Declining Fertility and the Rising Cost of Children: What can NTA say about low fertility in Japan and other Asian countries
This paper examines, at the aggregate level, the relationship between cost of children and number of children (as measured by the total fertility rate) in Japan and other East Asian countries, using a new methodological approach called National Transfer Accounts (NTA). The private and public direct costs of children are measured by private and public transfers flowing into the 'child' age groups from older age groups. The estimated elasticity bet…
Is Childcare Leave Effective in Raising Fertility in Japan
This paper estimates the effect of childcare leave on married women's fertility in Japan, based on data from the 2007 National Survey on Work and Family. The analysis takes into account how childcare leave influences fertility through its intermediate effects on women's selection into the labor market, job tenure, wages and the opportunity cost of children. Results indicate a strong effect of childcare leave on years of continuous job tenure with…
Japan's Transition From the Demographic Bonus to the Demographic Onus
Immediately after World War Two, Japan's fertility declined by more than 50 per cent in 10 years. This unprecedented decline of fertility resulted in a substantial shift in personal resource allocation away from childrearing and induced a rapid accumulation of physical capital in the 1950s, which provided a strong base for achieving Japan's phenomenal economic growth from the late 1950s to the early 1970s. By heavily drawing upon two simulation m…
Health and Its Impact on Work and Dependency Among the Elderly in Japan
The present study seeks to provide new evidence on the determinants of retirement for older Japanese men and women, using a unique longitudinal survey of households, the Nihon University Japan Longitudinal Study of Ageing (NUJLSOA). One of the major findings of the present study is that the primary determinant of the probability of remaining in work between 1999 and 2003 was changes in health status as measured by the change in the number of NAGI…
Japan’s changing fertility mechanisms and its policy responses
Does Globalization Adversely Affect Population and Poverty: The Views of Five Panelists
Late Marriage and Less Marriage in Japan
Between 1975 and 1995, the singulate mean age at marriage in Japan increased from 24.5 to 27.7 years for women and from 27.6 to 30.7 years for men, making Japan one of the latest-marrying populations in the world. Over the same period, the proportion of women who will never marry, calculated from age-specific first-marriage probabilities pertaining to a particular calendar year, increased from 5 to 15 percent for women and from 6 to 22 percent fo…
Shifting Costs of Caring for the Elderly Back to Families in Japan: Will It Work
Over the next 30 years the percentage of Japans population who are elderly will rise rapidly to unprecedented levels and the countrys population will become the oldest in the world. The financial pressures on Japans social security system will be severe. To alleviate these pressures the government is attempting to shift some of the costs of the social security system back to families. But fundamental economic social and value changes discussed in…
Values and Fertility Change in Japan
This paper analyses how value change and economic and social change have jointly affected fertility in Japan since 1950, and especially since 1973 when fertility resumed declining after some 15 years at near-replacement level. The resumption of fertility decline since 1973 has been driven primarily by underlying economic and social changes. Value change has tended to lag behind fertility change, and this lag has tended to be larger in Japan than …
Earnings Patterns of Japanese Women: 1976-1988
The Family, the Market and the State in Ageing Societies
Using a mixture of economic and demographic analysis, this book studies the changing patterns of family formation over the last twenty years. A strength of the book is the data and analysis included on Japan and Western countries, which have previously been less researched than the developing world. The first part explores the effects of economic considerations on family formation. Topics covered include the correlation between levels of cohabita…
Age at motherhood in Japan
Fertility Change in Contemporary Japan
The authors examine the striking decline in Japan's birthrate in light of the rapid urbanization, industrialization, and socioeconomic development experienced by the nation since World War II
The Resumption of Fertility Decline in Japan: 1973-92
This article analyzes the fertility decline in postwar Japan especially since 1973 and the demographic and socioeconomic factors contributing to it. The analysis based primarily on period parity progression ratios suggests that Japans fertility decline since 1973 has occurred mainly because of postponement of marriage and first birth and declines in ratios of progression to marriage and first birth. It is shown that womens rising educational atta…
Care of the Elderly in Japan: Changing Norms and Expectations
Analyse des normes liees au devoir filial envers les parents âges au Japon et des attentes des parents âges vis-a-vis des enfants : evolutions et tendances actuelles
Fertility Change in Contemporary Japan
Fertility Change in Contemporary Japan
Late Marriage and Less Marriage in Japan
Between 1975 and 1995, the singulate mean age at marriage in Japan increased from 24.5 to 27.7 years for women and from 27.6 to 30.7 years for men, making Japan one of the latest-marrying populations in the world. Over the same period, the proportion of women who will never marry, calculated from age-specific first-marriage probabilities pertaining to a particular calendar year, increased from 5 to 15 percent for women and from 6 to 22 percent fo…
Shifting Costs of Caring for the Elderly Back to Families in Japan: Will It Work
Over the next 30 years the percentage of Japans population who are elderly will rise rapidly to unprecedented levels and the countrys population will become the oldest in the world. The financial pressures on Japans social security system will be severe. To alleviate these pressures the government is attempting to shift some of the costs of the social security system back to families. But fundamental economic social and value changes discussed in…
Japan’s changing fertility mechanisms and its policy responses
Values and Fertility Change in Japan
This paper analyses how value change and economic and social change have jointly affected fertility in Japan since 1950, and especially since 1973 when fertility resumed declining after some 15 years at near-replacement level. The resumption of fertility decline since 1973 has been driven primarily by underlying economic and social changes. Value change has tended to lag behind fertility change, and this lag has tended to be larger in Japan than …
Multivariate analysis of parity progression–based measures of the total fertility rate and its components
This article describes a methodology for applying a discrete-time survival model—the complementary log-log model—to estimate effects of socioeconomic variables on (1) the total fertility rate and its components and (2) trends in the total fertility rate and its components. For the methodology to be applicable, the total fertility rate (TFR) must be calculated from parity progression ratios (PPRs). The components of the TFR are PPRs, the total mar…
Care of the Elderly in Japan: Changing Norms and Expectations
Analyse des normes liees au devoir filial envers les parents âges au Japon et des attentes des parents âges vis-a-vis des enfants : evolutions et tendances actuelles
The Resumption of Fertility Decline in Japan: 1973-92
This article analyzes the fertility decline in postwar Japan especially since 1973 and the demographic and socioeconomic factors contributing to it. The analysis based primarily on period parity progression ratios suggests that Japans fertility decline since 1973 has occurred mainly because of postponement of marriage and first birth and declines in ratios of progression to marriage and first birth. It is shown that womens rising educational atta…
Declining Fertility and the Rising Cost of Children: What can NTA say about low fertility in Japan and other Asian countries
This paper examines, at the aggregate level, the relationship between cost of children and number of children (as measured by the total fertility rate) in Japan and other East Asian countries, using a new methodological approach called National Transfer Accounts (NTA). The private and public direct costs of children are measured by private and public transfers flowing into the 'child' age groups from older age groups. The estimated elasticity bet…
Decomposition of the change in the total fertility rate in the republic of Korea, 1966–1970
Own‐children fertility estimates derived from the Korean censuses of 1966 and 1970 indicate that the total fertility rate fell by more than half a child in the intercensal period, from an estimated 4,837 to 4,257 per thousand. A compositional analysis shows that about one‐fourth of the fall can be attributed to changes in population composition by urban‐rural residence, education, marital status, and parity, and about three‐fourths to changes in …
Japan's Transition From the Demographic Bonus to the Demographic Onus
Immediately after World War Two, Japan's fertility declined by more than 50 per cent in 10 years. This unprecedented decline of fertility resulted in a substantial shift in personal resource allocation away from childrearing and induced a rapid accumulation of physical capital in the 1950s, which provided a strong base for achieving Japan's phenomenal economic growth from the late 1950s to the early 1970s. By heavily drawing upon two simulation m…
Population Aging and Immigration in Japan
This article discusses the development of immigration policies in postwar Japan by taking into consideration the long-term socioeconomic and demographic transformations of Japanese society. We demonstrate how Japan is experiencing the tension between the evident need of domestic enterprises for unskilled labor and the stated policies of not admitting foreign unskilled workers. We also point out that by the time Japan is ready to open its door to …
Age at motherhood in Japan
The Effect of Mandatory Retirement on Earnings Profiles in Japan
Using data from the Japanese Basic Survey on Wage Structure for 1981 and 1986, the authors estimate the effect of the age of mandatory retirement on the rate of growth of earnings with job tenure in Japan. The results indicate that an increase in the age of mandatory retirement reduces the rate of growth of earnings. This finding suggests that the existence of long-term employment contracts is a more likely explanation of the steep earnings-exper…
Explaining Trends in Coresidence of Newly Married Couples With Parents in Japan
This paper attempts to explain both the long-term downward trend in coresidence of newly married Japanese couples with parents and the surprisingly large and sustained upturn in coresidence precipitated by the 1998 economic crisis. A multivariate analysis shows that the main causes of the long-term decline in coresidence at time of marriage are the declining percentage of arranged marriages, rising mean age at marriage for wives, rising levels of…
Population Decline, Labor Force Stability, and the Future of the Japanese Economy
Earnings Patterns of Japanese Women: 1976-1988
Health and Its Impact on Work and Dependency Among the Elderly in Japan
The present study seeks to provide new evidence on the determinants of retirement for older Japanese men and women, using a unique longitudinal survey of households, the Nihon University Japan Longitudinal Study of Ageing (NUJLSOA). One of the major findings of the present study is that the primary determinant of the probability of remaining in work between 1999 and 2003 was changes in health status as measured by the change in the number of NAGI…
Prospects for Increased Contraceptive Pill Use in Japan
Multidimensional Life Table Estimation of the Total Fertility Rate and Its Components
Using discrete-time survival models of parity progression and illustrative data from the Philippines, this article develops a multivariate multidimensional life table of nuptiality and fertility, the dimensions of which are age, parity, and duration in parity. The measures calculated from this life table include total fertility rate (TRF), total marital fertility rate (TMFR), parity progression ratios (PPR), age-specific fertility rates, mean and…
Is Childcare Leave Effective in Raising Fertility in Japan
This paper estimates the effect of childcare leave on married women's fertility in Japan, based on data from the 2007 National Survey on Work and Family. The analysis takes into account how childcare leave influences fertility through its intermediate effects on women's selection into the labor market, job tenure, wages and the opportunity cost of children. Results indicate a strong effect of childcare leave on years of continuous job tenure with…
Decomposition of the change in the total fertility rate in the republic of Korea, 1966–1970
Own‐children fertility estimates derived from the Korean censuses of 1966 and 1970 indicate that the total fertility rate fell by more than half a child in the intercensal period, from an estimated 4,837 to 4,257 per thousand. A compositional analysis shows that about one‐fourth of the fall can be attributed to changes in population composition by urban‐rural residence, education, marital status, and parity, and about three‐fourths to changes in …
Differential Fertility in Indonesia and the Philippines: A Multivariate Analysis
Population Ageing and its Impact Upon Health Resource Requirements at Government and Familial Levels in Japan
Rapid economic growth in post-war Japan, has been accompanied by unprecedented population ageing. In this paper the impact of Japan's ageing population is analysed in respect of (i) health-care services (ii) allocation of resources to health care and (iii) the manpower requirements to support health in old age. These projections are based upon macroeconomic modelling techniques
Prospects for Increased Contraceptive Pill Use in Japan
Fertility Change in Contemporary Japan
Fertility Change in Contemporary Japan
The Effect of Mandatory Retirement on Earnings Profiles in Japan
Using data from the Japanese Basic Survey on Wage Structure for 1981 and 1986, the authors estimate the effect of the age of mandatory retirement on the rate of growth of earnings with job tenure in Japan. The results indicate that an increase in the age of mandatory retirement reduces the rate of growth of earnings. This finding suggests that the existence of long-term employment contracts is a more likely explanation of the steep earnings-exper…
Fertility Change in Contemporary Japan
The authors examine the striking decline in Japan's birthrate in light of the rapid urbanization, industrialization, and socioeconomic development experienced by the nation since World War II
The Resumption of Fertility Decline in Japan: 1973-92
This article analyzes the fertility decline in postwar Japan especially since 1973 and the demographic and socioeconomic factors contributing to it. The analysis based primarily on period parity progression ratios suggests that Japans fertility decline since 1973 has occurred mainly because of postponement of marriage and first birth and declines in ratios of progression to marriage and first birth. It is shown that womens rising educational atta…
Care of the Elderly in Japan: Changing Norms and Expectations
Analyse des normes liees au devoir filial envers les parents âges au Japon et des attentes des parents âges vis-a-vis des enfants : evolutions et tendances actuelles
The Family, the Market and the State in Ageing Societies
Using a mixture of economic and demographic analysis, this book studies the changing patterns of family formation over the last twenty years. A strength of the book is the data and analysis included on Japan and Western countries, which have previously been less researched than the developing world. The first part explores the effects of economic considerations on family formation. Topics covered include the correlation between levels of cohabita…
Age at motherhood in Japan
Earnings Patterns of Japanese Women: 1976-1988
Values and Fertility Change in Japan
This paper analyses how value change and economic and social change have jointly affected fertility in Japan since 1950, and especially since 1973 when fertility resumed declining after some 15 years at near-replacement level. The resumption of fertility decline since 1973 has been driven primarily by underlying economic and social changes. Value change has tended to lag behind fertility change, and this lag has tended to be larger in Japan than …
Shifting Costs of Caring for the Elderly Back to Families in Japan: Will It Work
Over the next 30 years the percentage of Japans population who are elderly will rise rapidly to unprecedented levels and the countrys population will become the oldest in the world. The financial pressures on Japans social security system will be severe. To alleviate these pressures the government is attempting to shift some of the costs of the social security system back to families. But fundamental economic social and value changes discussed in…
Late Marriage and Less Marriage in Japan
Between 1975 and 1995, the singulate mean age at marriage in Japan increased from 24.5 to 27.7 years for women and from 27.6 to 30.7 years for men, making Japan one of the latest-marrying populations in the world. Over the same period, the proportion of women who will never marry, calculated from age-specific first-marriage probabilities pertaining to a particular calendar year, increased from 5 to 15 percent for women and from 6 to 22 percent fo…
Does Globalization Adversely Affect Population and Poverty: The Views of Five Panelists
Japan’s changing fertility mechanisms and its policy responses
Japan's Transition From the Demographic Bonus to the Demographic Onus
Immediately after World War Two, Japan's fertility declined by more than 50 per cent in 10 years. This unprecedented decline of fertility resulted in a substantial shift in personal resource allocation away from childrearing and induced a rapid accumulation of physical capital in the 1950s, which provided a strong base for achieving Japan's phenomenal economic growth from the late 1950s to the early 1970s. By heavily drawing upon two simulation m…
Health and Its Impact on Work and Dependency Among the Elderly in Japan
The present study seeks to provide new evidence on the determinants of retirement for older Japanese men and women, using a unique longitudinal survey of households, the Nihon University Japan Longitudinal Study of Ageing (NUJLSOA). One of the major findings of the present study is that the primary determinant of the probability of remaining in work between 1999 and 2003 was changes in health status as measured by the change in the number of NAGI…
Declining Fertility and the Rising Cost of Children: What can NTA say about low fertility in Japan and other Asian countries
This paper examines, at the aggregate level, the relationship between cost of children and number of children (as measured by the total fertility rate) in Japan and other East Asian countries, using a new methodological approach called National Transfer Accounts (NTA). The private and public direct costs of children are measured by private and public transfers flowing into the 'child' age groups from older age groups. The estimated elasticity bet…
Is Childcare Leave Effective in Raising Fertility in Japan
This paper estimates the effect of childcare leave on married women's fertility in Japan, based on data from the 2007 National Survey on Work and Family. The analysis takes into account how childcare leave influences fertility through its intermediate effects on women's selection into the labor market, job tenure, wages and the opportunity cost of children. Results indicate a strong effect of childcare leave on years of continuous job tenure with…
Aging in Advanced Industrial States
Population Decline, Labor Force Stability, and the Future of the Japanese Economy
Multivariate analysis of parity progression–based measures of the total fertility rate and its components
This article describes a methodology for applying a discrete-time survival model—the complementary log-log model—to estimate effects of socioeconomic variables on (1) the total fertility rate and its components and (2) trends in the total fertility rate and its components. For the methodology to be applicable, the total fertility rate (TFR) must be calculated from parity progression ratios (PPRs). The components of the TFR are PPRs, the total mar…
Economics (24 works) · Sociology (23 works) · Population (22 works) · Demography (20 works) · Fertility (19 works) · Demographic economics (16 works) · Demography (12 works) · Intergenerational Family Dynamics and Caregiving (12 works) · Demographic Trends and Gender Preferences (11 works) · Economic growth (10 works)