Robert J Nicholls
Biographic Data
| ID | 1959145 |
|---|---|
| NAME | Robert J Nicholls |
| GIVEN NAMES | Robert J |
| FAMILY NAME | Nicholls |
| SIGNATURE | NICHOLLS R J |
| AFFILIATIONS | University of Southampton |
| ORCID | 0000-0002-9715-1109 |
| VERIFIED | Yes |
| TOTAL WORKS | 40 |
| TOTAL CITATIONS | 303 |
| AUTHOR COUNT | 40 |
| EDITOR COUNT | 0 |
| FIRST PUBLICATION YEAR | 1995 |
| LATEST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2026 |
| H-INDEX | 9 |
Persistent vulnerability and precarious futures: The limits of adaptation in ‘climate migrant’ informal settlements of coastal Bangladesh
Populations exposed and vulnerable to climatic shocks and environmental degradation are increasingly likely to employ migration as an adaptive strategy in response to escalating severity and frequency of hazards associated with climate change. This study responds to the critical need to assess the role of migration in adaptation, particularly how post-migration conditions shape vulnerability, well-being and opportunities for existing households a…
Framing resilience to manage complex environmental systems
Publisher of over 50 scientific journals across the life, physical, earth, and health sciences, both independently and in partnership with scientific societies including Cell, Neuron, Immunity, Current Biology, AJHG, and the Trends Journals
Delta sustainability from the Holocene to the Anthropocene and envisioning the future
Climate change science is evolving toward adaptation and mitigation solutions
Synthesizing the extensive and ever‐growing climate change literature is becoming increasingly challenging using conventional review processes, yet is crucial to understand key trends, including knowledge and policy related gaps, managing widespread impacts, and prioritizing future efforts. Here, we employ a systematic approach to interrogate ~130,000 international peer‐reviewed climate change articles published between 1990 and 2021. We examine …
Status of global coastal adaptation
Adaptation to multi-meter sea-level rise should start now
Social vulnerability to environmental hazards in the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna delta, India and Bangladesh
Managing coastal flood risk to residential properties in England: Integrating spatial planning, engineering and insurance
Integrating new sea‐level scenarios into coastal risk and adaptation assessments: An ongoing process
The release of new and updated sea‐level rise (SLR) information, such as from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Assessment Reports, needs to be better anticipated in coastal risk and adaptation assessments. This requires risk and adaptation assessments to be regularly reviewed and updated as needed, reflecting the new information but retaining useful information from earlier assessments. In this paper, updated guidance on the t…
The role of migration and demographic change in small island futures
Low-lying atoll islands are especially threatened by anticipated sea-level rise, and migration is often mentioned as a potential response of these island societies. Further, small island states are developing population, economic and adaptation policies to plan the future. Policies, such as raising of islands or land reclamation, require a long-term vision on populations and migration. However, population and migration systems in small island set…
Multi-decadal shoreline change in coastal natural world heritage sites – a global assessment
Natural World Heritage Sites (NWHS), which are of Outstanding Universal Value, are increasingly threatened by natural and anthropogenic pressures. This is especially true for coastal NWHS, which are additionally subject to erosion and flooding. This paper assesses shoreline change from 1984 to 2016 within the boundaries of 67 designated sites, providing a first global consistent assessment of its drivers. It develops a transferable methodology ut…
The global and regional impacts of climate change under representative concentration pathway forcings and shared socioeconomic pathway socioeconomic scenarios
This paper presents an evaluation of the global and regional consequences of climate change for heat extremes, water resources, river and coastal flooding, droughts, agriculture and energy use. It presents change in hazard and resource base under different rates of climate change (representative concentration pathways (RCP)), and socio-economic impacts are estimated for each combination of RCP and shared socioeconomic pathway. Uncertainty in the …
Projections of declining fluvial sediment delivery to major deltas worldwide in response to climate change and anthropogenic stress
Deltas are resource rich, low-lying areas where vulnerability to flooding is exacerbated by natural and anthropogenically induced subsidence and geocentric sea-level rise, threatening the large populations often found in these settings. Delta ‘drowning’ is potentially offset by deposition of sediment on the delta surface, making the delivery of fluvial sediment to the delta a key balancing control in offsetting relative sea-level rise, provided t…
Documenting the state of adaptation for the global stocktake of the Paris Agreement
Article 7, paragraph 14 of the Paris Agreement to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change commits Parties to create a five yearly assessment of observed adaptation to track progress and enable appropriate future commitments through the Nationally Determined Contributions and National Adaptation Plans. No large‐scale study exists that shows the types of adaptation, the spatial distribution of types of adaptation, and the numbers …
Evolving deltas: Coevolution with engineered interventions
Deltaic environments are often densely populated with high socio-economic values, and thus are hotspots of climatic, environmental and anthropogenic change. Large scale engineered structures, such as dike systems, have played an important role in shaping both environmental and socio-economic conditions in deltas, with such interventions more likely where there is a high population and a wealthy economy. Engineered interventions interact with the …
Contemporary migration intentions in the Maldives: The role of environmental and other factors
Population dynamics, delta vulnerability and environmental change: Comparison of the Mekong, Ganges–Brahmaputra and Amazon delta regions
Tropical delta regions are at risk of multiple threats including relative sea level rise and human alterations, making them more and more vulnerable to extreme floods, storms, surges, salinity intrusion, and other hazards which could also increase in magnitude and frequency with a changing climate. Given the environmental vulnerability of tropical deltas, understanding the interlinkages between population dynamics and environmental change in thes…
Future Coastal Population Growth and Exposure to Sea-Level Rise and Coastal Flooding - A Global Assessment
Coastal zones are exposed to a range of coastal hazards including sea-level rise with its related effects. At the same time, they are more densely populated than the hinterland and exhibit higher rates of population growth and urbanisation. As this trend is expected to continue into the future, we investigate how coastal populations will be affected by such impacts at global and regional scales by the years 2030 and 2060. Starting from baseline p…
Creating an ensemble of future strategies for national infrastructure provision
Coastal flood damage and adaptation costs under 21st century sea-level rise
Significance Coastal flood damages are expected to increase significantly during the 21st century as sea levels rise and socioeconomic development increases the number of people and value of assets in the coastal floodplain. Estimates of future damages and adaptation costs are essential for supporting efforts to reduce emissions driving sea-level rise as well as for designing strategies to adapt to increasing coastal flood risk. This paper presen…
Sea‐level scenarios for evaluating coastal impacts
Global‐mean sea‐level rise will drive impacts and adaptation needs around the world's coasts over the 21st century and beyond. A key element in assessing these issues is the development of scenarios (or plausible futures) of local relative sea‐level rise to support impact assessment and adaptation planning. This requires combining a number of different but uncertain components of sea level which can be linked to climatic and non‐climatic (i.e., u…
Research, policy and practice for the conservation and sustainable use of intertidal mudflats and saltmarshes in the Solent from 1800 to 2016
A global ranking of port cities with high exposure to climate extremes
This paper presents a first estimate of the exposure of the world’s large port cities (population exceeding one million inhabitants in 2005) to coastal flooding due to sea-level rise and storm surge now and in the 2070s, taking into account scenarios of socio-economic and climate changes. The analysis suggests that about 40 million people (0.6% of the global population or roughly 1 in 10 of the total port city population in the cities considered)…
Sea-level rise and its possible impacts given a ‘beyond 4°C world’ in the twenty-first century
The range of future climate-induced sea-level rise remains highly uncertain with continued concern that large increases in the twenty-first century cannot be ruled out. The biggest source of uncertainty is the response of the large ice sheets of Greenland and west Antarctica. Based on our analysis, a pragmatic estimate of sea-level rise by 2100, for a temperature rise of 4°C or more over the same time frame, is between 0.5 m and 2 m—the probabili…
Sea-Level Rise and Its Impact on Coastal Zones
Global sea levels have risen through the 20th century. These rises will almost certainly accelerate through the 21st century and beyond because of global warming, but their magnitude remains uncertain. Key uncertainties include the possible role of the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets and the amplitude of regional changes in sea level. In many areas, nonclimatic components of relative sea-level change (mainly subsidence) can also be locall…
Resilience to natural hazards: How useful is this concept
Resilience is widely seen as a desirable system property in environmental management. This paper explores the concept of resilience to natural hazards, using weather-related hazards in coastal megacities as an example. The paper draws on the wide literature on megacities, coastal hazards, hazard risk reduction strategies, and resilience within environmental management. Some analysts define resilience as a system attribute, whilst others use it as…
Coastal flooding and wetland loss in the 21st century: Changes under the SRES climate and socio-economic scenarios
Increasing flood risk and wetland losses due to global sea-level rise: Regional and global analyses
Coastal megacities and climate change
Island abandonment and sea-level rise: An historical analog from the Chesapeake Bay, USA
Millions at risk: Defining critical climate change threats and targets
Climate and socio-economic scenarios for global-scale climate change impacts assessments: Characterising the SRES storylines
Benefits of mitigation of climate change for coastal areas
Climate change and coastal vulnerability assessment: Scenarios for integrated assessment
Documenting the state of adaptation for the global stocktake of the Paris Agreement
Article 7, paragraph 14 of the Paris Agreement to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change commits Parties to create a five yearly assessment of observed adaptation to track progress and enable appropriate future commitments through the Nationally Determined Contributions and National Adaptation Plans. No large‐scale study exists that shows the types of adaptation, the spatial distribution of types of adaptation, and the numbers …
Creating an ensemble of future strategies for national infrastructure provision
Contemporary migration intentions in the Maldives: The role of environmental and other factors
Population dynamics, delta vulnerability and environmental change: Comparison of the Mekong, Ganges–Brahmaputra and Amazon delta regions
Tropical delta regions are at risk of multiple threats including relative sea level rise and human alterations, making them more and more vulnerable to extreme floods, storms, surges, salinity intrusion, and other hazards which could also increase in magnitude and frequency with a changing climate. Given the environmental vulnerability of tropical deltas, understanding the interlinkages between population dynamics and environmental change in thes…
Coastal Resilience and Planning for an Uncertain Future: An Introduction
Integrating new sea‐level scenarios into coastal risk and adaptation assessments: An ongoing process
The release of new and updated sea‐level rise (SLR) information, such as from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Assessment Reports, needs to be better anticipated in coastal risk and adaptation assessments. This requires risk and adaptation assessments to be regularly reviewed and updated as needed, reflecting the new information but retaining useful information from earlier assessments. In this paper, updated guidance on the t…
Sea‐level scenarios for evaluating coastal impacts
Global‐mean sea‐level rise will drive impacts and adaptation needs around the world's coasts over the 21st century and beyond. A key element in assessing these issues is the development of scenarios (or plausible futures) of local relative sea‐level rise to support impact assessment and adaptation planning. This requires combining a number of different but uncertain components of sea level which can be linked to climatic and non‐climatic (i.e., u…
Adaptation to Five Metres of Sea Level Rise
There is an unknown but probably small probability that the West‐Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) will collapse because of anthropogenic climate change. A WAIS collapse could cause a 5–6 metre global sea level rise within centuries. In three case studies, we investigate the response of society to the most extreme yet not implausible scenario, a five‐metre sea level rise within a century, starting in 2030. The case studies combine a series of interviews…
Sea-level rise vulnerability in the countries of the Coral Triangle
Climate change science is evolving toward adaptation and mitigation solutions
Synthesizing the extensive and ever‐growing climate change literature is becoming increasingly challenging using conventional review processes, yet is crucial to understand key trends, including knowledge and policy related gaps, managing widespread impacts, and prioritizing future efforts. Here, we employ a systematic approach to interrogate ~130,000 international peer‐reviewed climate change articles published between 1990 and 2021. We examine …
Global sea-level rise and coastal vulnerability
Coastal megacities and climate change
Buenos Aires and Kyoto targets do little to reduce climate change impacts
Coastal Resilience and Planning for an Uncertain Future: An Introduction
Increasing flood risk and wetland losses due to global sea-level rise: Regional and global analyses
Millions at risk: Defining critical climate change threats and targets
Resilience to natural hazards: How useful is this concept
Resilience is widely seen as a desirable system property in environmental management. This paper explores the concept of resilience to natural hazards, using weather-related hazards in coastal megacities as an example. The paper draws on the wide literature on megacities, coastal hazards, hazard risk reduction strategies, and resilience within environmental management. Some analysts define resilience as a system attribute, whilst others use it as…
Climate and socio-economic scenarios for global-scale climate change impacts assessments: Characterising the SRES storylines
Benefits of mitigation of climate change for coastal areas
Coastal flooding and wetland loss in the 21st century: Changes under the SRES climate and socio-economic scenarios
Island abandonment and sea-level rise: An historical analog from the Chesapeake Bay, USA
Adaptation to Five Metres of Sea Level Rise
There is an unknown but probably small probability that the West‐Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) will collapse because of anthropogenic climate change. A WAIS collapse could cause a 5–6 metre global sea level rise within centuries. In three case studies, we investigate the response of society to the most extreme yet not implausible scenario, a five‐metre sea level rise within a century, starting in 2030. The case studies combine a series of interviews…
Global sea-level rise and coastal vulnerability
Climate change and coastal vulnerability assessment: Scenarios for integrated assessment
Sinking deltas due to human activities
Sea-Level Rise and Its Impact on Coastal Zones
Global sea levels have risen through the 20th century. These rises will almost certainly accelerate through the 21st century and beyond because of global warming, but their magnitude remains uncertain. Key uncertainties include the possible role of the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets and the amplitude of regional changes in sea level. In many areas, nonclimatic components of relative sea-level change (mainly subsidence) can also be locall…
Sea-level rise vulnerability in the countries of the Coral Triangle
A global ranking of port cities with high exposure to climate extremes
This paper presents a first estimate of the exposure of the world’s large port cities (population exceeding one million inhabitants in 2005) to coastal flooding due to sea-level rise and storm surge now and in the 2070s, taking into account scenarios of socio-economic and climate changes. The analysis suggests that about 40 million people (0.6% of the global population or roughly 1 in 10 of the total port city population in the cities considered)…
Sea-level rise and its possible impacts given a ‘beyond 4°C world’ in the twenty-first century
The range of future climate-induced sea-level rise remains highly uncertain with continued concern that large increases in the twenty-first century cannot be ruled out. The biggest source of uncertainty is the response of the large ice sheets of Greenland and west Antarctica. Based on our analysis, a pragmatic estimate of sea-level rise by 2100, for a temperature rise of 4°C or more over the same time frame, is between 0.5 m and 2 m—the probabili…
Sea‐level scenarios for evaluating coastal impacts
Global‐mean sea‐level rise will drive impacts and adaptation needs around the world's coasts over the 21st century and beyond. A key element in assessing these issues is the development of scenarios (or plausible futures) of local relative sea‐level rise to support impact assessment and adaptation planning. This requires combining a number of different but uncertain components of sea level which can be linked to climatic and non‐climatic (i.e., u…
Research, policy and practice for the conservation and sustainable use of intertidal mudflats and saltmarshes in the Solent from 1800 to 2016
Coastal flood damage and adaptation costs under 21st century sea-level rise
Significance Coastal flood damages are expected to increase significantly during the 21st century as sea levels rise and socioeconomic development increases the number of people and value of assets in the coastal floodplain. Estimates of future damages and adaptation costs are essential for supporting efforts to reduce emissions driving sea-level rise as well as for designing strategies to adapt to increasing coastal flood risk. This paper presen…
Future Coastal Population Growth and Exposure to Sea-Level Rise and Coastal Flooding - A Global Assessment
Coastal zones are exposed to a range of coastal hazards including sea-level rise with its related effects. At the same time, they are more densely populated than the hinterland and exhibit higher rates of population growth and urbanisation. As this trend is expected to continue into the future, we investigate how coastal populations will be affected by such impacts at global and regional scales by the years 2030 and 2060. Starting from baseline p…
Creating an ensemble of future strategies for national infrastructure provision
Contemporary migration intentions in the Maldives: The role of environmental and other factors
Population dynamics, delta vulnerability and environmental change: Comparison of the Mekong, Ganges–Brahmaputra and Amazon delta regions
Tropical delta regions are at risk of multiple threats including relative sea level rise and human alterations, making them more and more vulnerable to extreme floods, storms, surges, salinity intrusion, and other hazards which could also increase in magnitude and frequency with a changing climate. Given the environmental vulnerability of tropical deltas, understanding the interlinkages between population dynamics and environmental change in thes…
Climate change (32 works) · Geography (32 works) · Environmental Science (30 works) · Environmental resource management (22 works) · Environmental planning (19 works) · Ecology (16 works) · Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research (16 works) · Sea level rise (15 works) · Coastal and Marine Dynamics (13 works) · Oceanography (13 works)