Michael Woldemariam
Biographic Data
| ID | 200203 |
|---|---|
| NAME | Michael Woldemariam |
| GIVEN NAMES | Michael |
| FAMILY NAME | Woldemariam |
| SIGNATURE | WOLDEMARIAM M |
| AFFILIATIONS | Boston University |
| VERIFIED | No |
| TOTAL WORKS | 12 |
| TOTAL CITATIONS | 32 |
| WORKS AS AUTHOR | 12 |
| WORKS AS EDITOR | 0 |
| FIRST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2015 |
| LATEST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2026 |
| H-INDEX | 4 |
Managing the global ambitions of allies
The Tragedy of Transition in Ethiopia and Sudan
The collapse of the 2018–19 political transitions in Ethiopia and Sudan was one of the great African tragedies of the past decade. Three main factors caused these promising democratic openings to devolve into violence and resurgent authoritarianism. Both transitions suffered from similar structural defects: they were top-down processes managed by segments of the old regime, while alternative forces were too divided to compel more inclusive outcom…
Eritrea’s intervention in the Tigray war
Who lost Ethiopia? The unmaking of an African anchor state and U.S. foreign policy
In November 2020, Ethiopia descended into full-scale civil war which, owing to mass atrocities and regional intervention, metastasized into among the most acute humanitarian emergencies in the world. The violent fragmentation of state authority tarnished Ethiopia’s internationally sanctioned role as regional peacekeeper and developmental leader—an “anchor state” of the Pax Americana in the Horn of Africa. While acknowledging the complex, multi-di…
From Rebelling to Ruling
Political order following rebel victory in civil wars has seen remarkable variation. While some rebellions transform their victories into durable regimes, others do not. This article develops a typological framework to assess the ability, and inability, of victorious rebellions to capture the state after overthrowing incumbents, with a focus on Africa. We argue that these outcomes – state capture, failed state capture, or mixed – depend on two ke…
The Eritrea-Ethiopia Thaw and Its Regional Impact
[T]urning the page on decades of conflict and underdevelopment in the Horn of Africa will require ... democratization and the institutionalization of transparent, accountable governance
Response to Lisa Mueller’s review of Insurgent Fragmentation in the Horn of Africa
An abstract is not available for this content so a preview has been provided. Please use the Get access link above for information on how to access this content
Insurgent Fragmentation in the Horn of Africa
When insurgent organizations factionalize and fragment, it can profoundly shape a civil war: its intensity, outcome, and duration. In this extended treatment of this complex and important phenomenon, Michael Woldemariam examines why rebel organizations fragment through a unique historical analysis of the Horn of Africa's civil wars. Central to his view is that rebel factionalism is conditioned by battlefield developments. While fragmentation is c…
After the Split
Why do partitioned successor states engage one another in armed conflict? We explore the drivers of war between successor states by comparing two border crises that followed the partitions of Ethiopia (1993) and Sudan (2011). We argue that the politico-military struggles that give way to partition create important historical memories that shape what successor states think about the utility of military force. While the partition of Ethiopia yielde…
"No war, no peace" in a region in flux
This article examines the evolving rivalry between Eritrea and Ethiopia in light of military clashes between the two countries that occurred in June 2016. Drawing on rationalist understandings of international politics, it illustrates the calculus that sustained the rivalry for nearly 16 years. These forces, while sufficient to have maintained the situation of "no war, no peace" for a considerable period of time, gave way to a new set of dynamics…
Battlefield Outcomes and Rebel Cohesion
This article uses data from the Eritrean war for independence to refine existing theories of rebel fragmentation. The author argues organizational performance affects the emergence of factional infighting within rebel organizations in unique and novel ways. While battlefield losses increase the likelihood of internal fragmentation, so do battlefield gains. The implication is battlefield stalemates possess unique properties that promote organizati…
Partition Problems
Under what circumstances does partition yield war between resulting successor states? This article probes the causes of the Eritrean-Ethiopian War (1998–2000) in an effort to offer tentative answers. The evidence suggests that in this particular case, the causes of postpartition war reflected a more general cause of war: disagreements over relative power. These disagreements were underpinned by the divergent historical memories maintained by ruli…
Battlefield Outcomes and Rebel Cohesion
This article uses data from the Eritrean war for independence to refine existing theories of rebel fragmentation. The author argues organizational performance affects the emergence of factional infighting within rebel organizations in unique and novel ways. While battlefield losses increase the likelihood of internal fragmentation, so do battlefield gains. The implication is battlefield stalemates possess unique properties that promote organizati…
Who lost Ethiopia? The unmaking of an African anchor state and U.S. foreign policy
In November 2020, Ethiopia descended into full-scale civil war which, owing to mass atrocities and regional intervention, metastasized into among the most acute humanitarian emergencies in the world. The violent fragmentation of state authority tarnished Ethiopia’s internationally sanctioned role as regional peacekeeper and developmental leader—an “anchor state” of the Pax Americana in the Horn of Africa. While acknowledging the complex, multi-di…
From Rebelling to Ruling
Political order following rebel victory in civil wars has seen remarkable variation. While some rebellions transform their victories into durable regimes, others do not. This article develops a typological framework to assess the ability, and inability, of victorious rebellions to capture the state after overthrowing incumbents, with a focus on Africa. We argue that these outcomes – state capture, failed state capture, or mixed – depend on two ke…
"No war, no peace" in a region in flux
This article examines the evolving rivalry between Eritrea and Ethiopia in light of military clashes between the two countries that occurred in June 2016. Drawing on rationalist understandings of international politics, it illustrates the calculus that sustained the rivalry for nearly 16 years. These forces, while sufficient to have maintained the situation of "no war, no peace" for a considerable period of time, gave way to a new set of dynamics…
After the Split
Why do partitioned successor states engage one another in armed conflict? We explore the drivers of war between successor states by comparing two border crises that followed the partitions of Ethiopia (1993) and Sudan (2011). We argue that the politico-military struggles that give way to partition create important historical memories that shape what successor states think about the utility of military force. While the partition of Ethiopia yielde…
Eritrea’s intervention in the Tigray war
Partition Problems
Under what circumstances does partition yield war between resulting successor states? This article probes the causes of the Eritrean-Ethiopian War (1998–2000) in an effort to offer tentative answers. The evidence suggests that in this particular case, the causes of postpartition war reflected a more general cause of war: disagreements over relative power. These disagreements were underpinned by the divergent historical memories maintained by ruli…
Partition Problems
Under what circumstances does partition yield war between resulting successor states? This article probes the causes of the Eritrean-Ethiopian War (1998–2000) in an effort to offer tentative answers. The evidence suggests that in this particular case, the causes of postpartition war reflected a more general cause of war: disagreements over relative power. These disagreements were underpinned by the divergent historical memories maintained by ruli…
Battlefield Outcomes and Rebel Cohesion
This article uses data from the Eritrean war for independence to refine existing theories of rebel fragmentation. The author argues organizational performance affects the emergence of factional infighting within rebel organizations in unique and novel ways. While battlefield losses increase the likelihood of internal fragmentation, so do battlefield gains. The implication is battlefield stalemates possess unique properties that promote organizati…
Insurgent Fragmentation in the Horn of Africa
When insurgent organizations factionalize and fragment, it can profoundly shape a civil war: its intensity, outcome, and duration. In this extended treatment of this complex and important phenomenon, Michael Woldemariam examines why rebel organizations fragment through a unique historical analysis of the Horn of Africa's civil wars. Central to his view is that rebel factionalism is conditioned by battlefield developments. While fragmentation is c…
After the Split
Why do partitioned successor states engage one another in armed conflict? We explore the drivers of war between successor states by comparing two border crises that followed the partitions of Ethiopia (1993) and Sudan (2011). We argue that the politico-military struggles that give way to partition create important historical memories that shape what successor states think about the utility of military force. While the partition of Ethiopia yielde…
"No war, no peace" in a region in flux
This article examines the evolving rivalry between Eritrea and Ethiopia in light of military clashes between the two countries that occurred in June 2016. Drawing on rationalist understandings of international politics, it illustrates the calculus that sustained the rivalry for nearly 16 years. These forces, while sufficient to have maintained the situation of "no war, no peace" for a considerable period of time, gave way to a new set of dynamics…
The Eritrea-Ethiopia Thaw and Its Regional Impact
[T]urning the page on decades of conflict and underdevelopment in the Horn of Africa will require ... democratization and the institutionalization of transparent, accountable governance
Response to Lisa Mueller’s review of Insurgent Fragmentation in the Horn of Africa
An abstract is not available for this content so a preview has been provided. Please use the Get access link above for information on how to access this content
From Rebelling to Ruling
Political order following rebel victory in civil wars has seen remarkable variation. While some rebellions transform their victories into durable regimes, others do not. This article develops a typological framework to assess the ability, and inability, of victorious rebellions to capture the state after overthrowing incumbents, with a focus on Africa. We argue that these outcomes – state capture, failed state capture, or mixed – depend on two ke…
Who lost Ethiopia? The unmaking of an African anchor state and U.S. foreign policy
In November 2020, Ethiopia descended into full-scale civil war which, owing to mass atrocities and regional intervention, metastasized into among the most acute humanitarian emergencies in the world. The violent fragmentation of state authority tarnished Ethiopia’s internationally sanctioned role as regional peacekeeper and developmental leader—an “anchor state” of the Pax Americana in the Horn of Africa. While acknowledging the complex, multi-di…
The Tragedy of Transition in Ethiopia and Sudan
The collapse of the 2018–19 political transitions in Ethiopia and Sudan was one of the great African tragedies of the past decade. Three main factors caused these promising democratic openings to devolve into violence and resurgent authoritarianism. Both transitions suffered from similar structural defects: they were top-down processes managed by segments of the old regime, while alternative forces were too divided to compel more inclusive outcom…
Eritrea’s intervention in the Tigray war
Managing the global ambitions of allies
Political science (11 works) · Sociology (11 works) · Law (9 works) · Political economy (9 works) · Politics (8 works) · Economics (7 works) · African history and culture analysis (6 works) · Development economics (6 works) · Law (6 works) · Political Conflict and Governance (6 works)