Matthew Barnfield
Biographic Data
| ID | 2030284 |
|---|---|
| NAME | Matthew Barnfield |
| GIVEN NAMES | Matthew |
| FAMILY NAME | Barnfield |
| SIGNATURE | BARNFIELD M |
| AFFILIATIONS | Queen Mary University of London |
| ORCID | 0000-0002-1237-9594 |
| VERIFIED | Yes |
| TOTAL WORKS | 11 |
| TOTAL CITATIONS | 47 |
| AUTHOR COUNT | 11 |
| EDITOR COUNT | 0 |
| FIRST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2020 |
| LATEST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2025 |
| H-INDEX | 4 |
Electoral Hope
It is well established in political science that those who favour an election outcome tend to say it has a higher chance of success than those who oppose it. This tendency towards so-called ‘wishful thinking’ is often treated as a problem for democracy because it shows that voters are, as the term suggests, irrational. In this article, I make the case that partisan electoral expectations are significant not because they demonstrate widespread irr…
Wishful thinking in response to events: Evidence from the 2021 German federal election
When making uncertain judgments about the political future, people consistently see desired outcomes as more likely. But when major events reduce uncertainty about what is possible in the future, how do people's expectations respond? In a panel study conducted during the 2021 German federal election, we find that citizens' predictions of likely coalitions converge after the election takes place, but even after this convergence those expectations …
The Effects of Forecasts on the Accuracy and Precision of Expectations
Quantitative forecasts have become increasingly prominent as tools for aiding public understanding of sociopolitical trends. But how much, and what, do people learn from quantitative forecasts? In this note, we show through a preregistered survey experiment that real forecasts of the 2022 French presidential election significantly affect expectations of the election result. The direction of that effect hinges on how the forecast is presented. Vot…
Hope, Optimism, and Expectations for the Political Future
Expectations of what the future holds are a significant driver of political behavior. It is therefore important to understand the sources of those expectations. In this paper, we explore the psychological dispositions driving positivity about the political future. We draw on psychologists’ distinction between optimism—a dispositional belief that good things will happen, come what may—and hope—a trait of envisioning, pursuing and believing one’s g…
Long‐Term Time Horizons and Support for Public Investment
Generating public support for long‐term public investment may require understanding what citizens perceive as the “long term” in politics and how these perceptions shape their preferences. Across two studies, we find that UK citizens generally understand “long term” as 5–10 years. These perceptions appear to shape support for a real, salient, recent case of large‐scale public investment: the October 2024 UK budget. Study 1 shows that stating the …
Policy discounting across and beyond the lifespan
Legislators face a challenge when implementing long‐termist policies that prioritise sustainability and the well‐being of future generations: citizens prefer policies that pay off sooner rather than later. In this research note, I assess the hypothesis that the lifespan structures this temporal discounting effect. Do people show a particular preference for policies that pay off within, rather than beyond, their own lifetime? In a pre‐registered c…
Misinformation in Experimental Political Science
The American Political Science Association recently cautioned against the use of misinformation (giving research participants false information about the state of the world) in research with human subjects. This recommendation signals a growing recognition, as experimental research itself grows in prevalence in political science, that deceptive practices pose ethical problems. But what is wrong with misinformation in particular? I argue that whil…
Momentum in the polls raises electoral expectations
Voters rely on opinion polls to help them predict who is going to win elections. But they are regularly exposed to different polling results over time. How do changes in the polls affect their expectations? I show that when the polls indicate that a party’s support has increased, voters’ expectations for that party’s performance will be higher than they would be at the same vote share but without such evidence of growth, because the party appears…
Leaving the red Tories: Ideology, leaders, and why party members quit
What little research exists on why party members quit has tended to find that exit is driven primarily by political and ideological concerns. This research note builds on this, framing this finding theoretically and arguing that such theory should allow for the role of negative triggers – events that cause people to quit. We focus on the example of changes of leadership. Using data from four Party Members Project surveys, we find that British par…
Total Recall? Examining the Accuracy of Poll Recall during an Election Campaign
Despite a considerable interest in the effects of polls published during election campaigns, we know little about how well people internalize and remember their results. This paper studies how accurately citizens recall poll results and factors potentially influencing this accuracy. Theoretically, we draw on research into the perception of polls and poll effects as well as into media effects on political knowledge in general. Empirically, we inve…
Think Twice before Jumping on the Bandwagon: Clarifying Concepts in Research on the Bandwagon Effect
The potential influence of perceived popularity of political parties or candidates on individual vote choice is most commonly studied in terms of a ‘bandwagon effect’. However, there is confusion over exactly what the bandwagon effect is. In this article, I seek to remedy this confusion by providing a clear definition and typology of bandwagon effects, grounded in a review which reappraises existing scholarship. I argue that the bandwagon effect …
Think Twice before Jumping on the Bandwagon: Clarifying Concepts in Research on the Bandwagon Effect
The potential influence of perceived popularity of political parties or candidates on individual vote choice is most commonly studied in terms of a ‘bandwagon effect’. However, there is confusion over exactly what the bandwagon effect is. In this article, I seek to remedy this confusion by providing a clear definition and typology of bandwagon effects, grounded in a review which reappraises existing scholarship. I argue that the bandwagon effect …
Misinformation in Experimental Political Science
The American Political Science Association recently cautioned against the use of misinformation (giving research participants false information about the state of the world) in research with human subjects. This recommendation signals a growing recognition, as experimental research itself grows in prevalence in political science, that deceptive practices pose ethical problems. But what is wrong with misinformation in particular? I argue that whil…
Leaving the red Tories: Ideology, leaders, and why party members quit
What little research exists on why party members quit has tended to find that exit is driven primarily by political and ideological concerns. This research note builds on this, framing this finding theoretically and arguing that such theory should allow for the role of negative triggers – events that cause people to quit. We focus on the example of changes of leadership. Using data from four Party Members Project surveys, we find that British par…
Hope, Optimism, and Expectations for the Political Future
Expectations of what the future holds are a significant driver of political behavior. It is therefore important to understand the sources of those expectations. In this paper, we explore the psychological dispositions driving positivity about the political future. We draw on psychologists’ distinction between optimism—a dispositional belief that good things will happen, come what may—and hope—a trait of envisioning, pursuing and believing one’s g…
Momentum in the polls raises electoral expectations
Voters rely on opinion polls to help them predict who is going to win elections. But they are regularly exposed to different polling results over time. How do changes in the polls affect their expectations? I show that when the polls indicate that a party’s support has increased, voters’ expectations for that party’s performance will be higher than they would be at the same vote share but without such evidence of growth, because the party appears…
The Effects of Forecasts on the Accuracy and Precision of Expectations
Quantitative forecasts have become increasingly prominent as tools for aiding public understanding of sociopolitical trends. But how much, and what, do people learn from quantitative forecasts? In this note, we show through a preregistered survey experiment that real forecasts of the 2022 French presidential election significantly affect expectations of the election result. The direction of that effect hinges on how the forecast is presented. Vot…
Wishful thinking in response to events: Evidence from the 2021 German federal election
When making uncertain judgments about the political future, people consistently see desired outcomes as more likely. But when major events reduce uncertainty about what is possible in the future, how do people's expectations respond? In a panel study conducted during the 2021 German federal election, we find that citizens' predictions of likely coalitions converge after the election takes place, but even after this convergence those expectations …
Long‐Term Time Horizons and Support for Public Investment
Generating public support for long‐term public investment may require understanding what citizens perceive as the “long term” in politics and how these perceptions shape their preferences. Across two studies, we find that UK citizens generally understand “long term” as 5–10 years. These perceptions appear to shape support for a real, salient, recent case of large‐scale public investment: the October 2024 UK budget. Study 1 shows that stating the …
Policy discounting across and beyond the lifespan
Legislators face a challenge when implementing long‐termist policies that prioritise sustainability and the well‐being of future generations: citizens prefer policies that pay off sooner rather than later. In this research note, I assess the hypothesis that the lifespan structures this temporal discounting effect. Do people show a particular preference for policies that pay off within, rather than beyond, their own lifetime? In a pre‐registered c…
Total Recall? Examining the Accuracy of Poll Recall during an Election Campaign
Despite a considerable interest in the effects of polls published during election campaigns, we know little about how well people internalize and remember their results. This paper studies how accurately citizens recall poll results and factors potentially influencing this accuracy. Theoretically, we draw on research into the perception of polls and poll effects as well as into media effects on political knowledge in general. Empirically, we inve…
Think Twice before Jumping on the Bandwagon: Clarifying Concepts in Research on the Bandwagon Effect
The potential influence of perceived popularity of political parties or candidates on individual vote choice is most commonly studied in terms of a ‘bandwagon effect’. However, there is confusion over exactly what the bandwagon effect is. In this article, I seek to remedy this confusion by providing a clear definition and typology of bandwagon effects, grounded in a review which reappraises existing scholarship. I argue that the bandwagon effect …
Total Recall? Examining the Accuracy of Poll Recall during an Election Campaign
Despite a considerable interest in the effects of polls published during election campaigns, we know little about how well people internalize and remember their results. This paper studies how accurately citizens recall poll results and factors potentially influencing this accuracy. Theoretically, we draw on research into the perception of polls and poll effects as well as into media effects on political knowledge in general. Empirically, we inve…
Leaving the red Tories: Ideology, leaders, and why party members quit
What little research exists on why party members quit has tended to find that exit is driven primarily by political and ideological concerns. This research note builds on this, framing this finding theoretically and arguing that such theory should allow for the role of negative triggers – events that cause people to quit. We focus on the example of changes of leadership. Using data from four Party Members Project surveys, we find that British par…
Misinformation in Experimental Political Science
The American Political Science Association recently cautioned against the use of misinformation (giving research participants false information about the state of the world) in research with human subjects. This recommendation signals a growing recognition, as experimental research itself grows in prevalence in political science, that deceptive practices pose ethical problems. But what is wrong with misinformation in particular? I argue that whil…
Momentum in the polls raises electoral expectations
Voters rely on opinion polls to help them predict who is going to win elections. But they are regularly exposed to different polling results over time. How do changes in the polls affect their expectations? I show that when the polls indicate that a party’s support has increased, voters’ expectations for that party’s performance will be higher than they would be at the same vote share but without such evidence of growth, because the party appears…
Electoral Hope
It is well established in political science that those who favour an election outcome tend to say it has a higher chance of success than those who oppose it. This tendency towards so-called ‘wishful thinking’ is often treated as a problem for democracy because it shows that voters are, as the term suggests, irrational. In this article, I make the case that partisan electoral expectations are significant not because they demonstrate widespread irr…
Wishful thinking in response to events: Evidence from the 2021 German federal election
When making uncertain judgments about the political future, people consistently see desired outcomes as more likely. But when major events reduce uncertainty about what is possible in the future, how do people's expectations respond? In a panel study conducted during the 2021 German federal election, we find that citizens' predictions of likely coalitions converge after the election takes place, but even after this convergence those expectations …
The Effects of Forecasts on the Accuracy and Precision of Expectations
Quantitative forecasts have become increasingly prominent as tools for aiding public understanding of sociopolitical trends. But how much, and what, do people learn from quantitative forecasts? In this note, we show through a preregistered survey experiment that real forecasts of the 2022 French presidential election significantly affect expectations of the election result. The direction of that effect hinges on how the forecast is presented. Vot…
Hope, Optimism, and Expectations for the Political Future
Expectations of what the future holds are a significant driver of political behavior. It is therefore important to understand the sources of those expectations. In this paper, we explore the psychological dispositions driving positivity about the political future. We draw on psychologists’ distinction between optimism—a dispositional belief that good things will happen, come what may—and hope—a trait of envisioning, pursuing and believing one’s g…
Long‐Term Time Horizons and Support for Public Investment
Generating public support for long‐term public investment may require understanding what citizens perceive as the “long term” in politics and how these perceptions shape their preferences. Across two studies, we find that UK citizens generally understand “long term” as 5–10 years. These perceptions appear to shape support for a real, salient, recent case of large‐scale public investment: the October 2024 UK budget. Study 1 shows that stating the …
Policy discounting across and beyond the lifespan
Legislators face a challenge when implementing long‐termist policies that prioritise sustainability and the well‐being of future generations: citizens prefer policies that pay off sooner rather than later. In this research note, I assess the hypothesis that the lifespan structures this temporal discounting effect. Do people show a particular preference for policies that pay off within, rather than beyond, their own lifetime? In a pre‐registered c…
Political science (10 works) · Law (9 works) · Law (8 works) · Politics (8 works) · Psychology (8 works) · Electoral Systems and Political Participation (7 works) · Social Psychology (6 works) · Social Psychology (6 works) · Sociology (5 works) · Economics (4 works)