Florian Stoeckel
Biographic Data
| ID | 2030286 |
|---|---|
| NAME | Florian Stoeckel |
| GIVEN NAMES | Florian |
| FAMILY NAME | Stoeckel |
| SIGNATURE | STOECKEL F |
| AFFILIATIONS | University of Exeter |
| ORCID | 0000-0002-8937-5962 |
| VERIFIED | Yes |
| TOTAL WORKS | 13 |
| TOTAL CITATIONS | 285 |
| AUTHOR COUNT | 13 |
| EDITOR COUNT | 0 |
| FIRST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2013 |
| LATEST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2025 |
| H-INDEX | 7 |
Wishful thinking in response to events: Evidence from the 2021 German federal election
When making uncertain judgments about the political future, people consistently see desired outcomes as more likely. But when major events reduce uncertainty about what is possible in the future, how do people's expectations respond? In a panel study conducted during the 2021 German federal election, we find that citizens' predictions of likely coalitions converge after the election takes place, but even after this convergence those expectations …
The Effects of Forecasts on the Accuracy and Precision of Expectations
Quantitative forecasts have become increasingly prominent as tools for aiding public understanding of sociopolitical trends. But how much, and what, do people learn from quantitative forecasts? In this note, we show through a preregistered survey experiment that real forecasts of the 2022 French presidential election significantly affect expectations of the election result. The direction of that effect hinges on how the forecast is presented. Vot…
The limits of Brexit prejudice
Since the Brexit referendum, two novel political identities, Leaver and Remainer, have gained political salience in the United Kingdom. Some work contends that Leavers and Remainers display great animus toward one another in ways similar to affective polarization (dislike of opposing partisans). However, it remains unclear whether the dislike is as deep as partisan affective polarization and whether these identities are still relevant several yea…
When experts matter: Variations in consensus messaging for vaccine and genetically modified organism safety
Does consensus messaging about contested science issues influence perceptions of consensus and/or personal beliefs? This question remains open, particularly for topics other than climate change and samples outside the United States. In a Spanish national sample (N = 5087), we use preregistered survey experiments to examine differential efficacy of variations in consensus messaging for vaccines and genetically modified organisms. We find that no v…
Public perceptions and misperceptions of political authority in the European Union
How do citizens understand political authority within multi-level systems? We use original survey data from six European Union member states to assess the roles of political identity and interest in shaping citizen attitudes towards political authority in the European Union. We find that citizens with a greater interest in politics are more likely to express views on the authority of the European Union. These individuals are less likely to be uni…
Partisanship and anti-elite worldviews as correlates of science and health beliefs in the multi-party system of Spain
In a national sample of 5087 Spaniards, we examine the prevalence of 10 specific misperceptions over five separate science and health domains (climate change, 5G technology, genetically modified foods, vaccines, and homeopathy). We find that misperceptions about genetically modified foods and general health risks of 5G technology are particularly widespread. While we find that partisan affiliation is not strongly associated with any of the misper…
Political tolerance in Europe: The role of conspiratorial thinking and cosmopolitanism
Tolerance has long been identified as a crucial feature of liberal democracies. Although the limits of tolerance are debated, the extent to which citizens are open and willing to accommodate others who are different from them is often regarded as a sign of a healthy and well‐functioning liberal democracy. The goal of this paper is to empirically investigate the state of political tolerance in Europe today. The main questions we ask are: What expl…
How Politics Shape Views Toward Fact-Checking: Evidence from Six European Countries
Fact-checking has spread internationally, in part to confront the rise of digital disinformation campaigns. American studies suggests ideological asymmetry in attitudes toward fact-checking, as well as greater acceptance of the practice among those more interested in and knowledgeable about politics. We examine attitudes toward fact-checking across six European counties to put these findings in a broader context ( N = 6,067). We find greater fami…
The politics of international redistribution: Explaining public support for fiscal transfers in the EU
As a consequence of the Eurozone crisis and the creation of the European Stability Mechanism (ESM), the prospect of a transfer union has become a particularly contested aspect of European integration. How should one understand the public backlash against fiscal transfers? And, what explains voter preferences for international transfers more generally? Using data from the 2014 European Elections Study (EES), this article describes the first cross‐…
Mobilizing Citizens for Costly Policies: The Conditional Effect of Party Cues on Support for International Bailouts in the European Union
Previous research finds citizens' attitudes towards international redistribution in the European sovereign debt crisis to be related to party preferences. This article further reveals the nature of this link. We show that citizens follow party cues on international bailouts, rather than having merely ideologically congruent positions. By employing an original survey experiment that exposes respondents to elite cues, we additionally uncover underl…
Contact and Community: The Role of Social Interactions for a Political Identity
Can social interaction contribute to a sense of community that transcends national borders? This question was initially raised by Deutsch (1953) and revived by Fligstein (2008). My analysis makes two contributions to this literature. First, insights from social psychology are applied to specify the microfoundations for why contact across group boundaries can be related to a collective identity. Second, a new three‐wave panel data set is used to e…
When European integration becomes costly: The euro crisis and public support for European economic governance
This article analyses preferences for European economic governance in the European sovereign debt crisis. We assess citizens' opinions on increased intergovernmental co-operation and supranational governance in the economic sphere. We argue that current efforts to tackle the euro crisis do not benefit the typical ‘winners of European integration’. Moreover, European economic governance constitutes an even greater perceived threat to national iden…
Ambivalent or indifferent? Reconsidering the structure of EU public opinion
In the US context, research on ambivalence has established that individuals often simultaneously possess positive and negative considerations on a political object. Yet little is known about ambivalence in support for European integration. This article proposes a measure that distinguishes ambivalence from indifference in attitudes towards the European Union (EU). Using data from Eurobarometer wave 63.4 and the Chapel Hill expert survey I find th…
When European integration becomes costly: The euro crisis and public support for European economic governance
This article analyses preferences for European economic governance in the European sovereign debt crisis. We assess citizens' opinions on increased intergovernmental co-operation and supranational governance in the economic sphere. We argue that current efforts to tackle the euro crisis do not benefit the typical ‘winners of European integration’. Moreover, European economic governance constitutes an even greater perceived threat to national iden…
The politics of international redistribution: Explaining public support for fiscal transfers in the EU
As a consequence of the Eurozone crisis and the creation of the European Stability Mechanism (ESM), the prospect of a transfer union has become a particularly contested aspect of European integration. How should one understand the public backlash against fiscal transfers? And, what explains voter preferences for international transfers more generally? Using data from the 2014 European Elections Study (EES), this article describes the first cross‐…
Ambivalent or indifferent? Reconsidering the structure of EU public opinion
In the US context, research on ambivalence has established that individuals often simultaneously possess positive and negative considerations on a political object. Yet little is known about ambivalence in support for European integration. This article proposes a measure that distinguishes ambivalence from indifference in attitudes towards the European Union (EU). Using data from Eurobarometer wave 63.4 and the Chapel Hill expert survey I find th…
Mobilizing Citizens for Costly Policies: The Conditional Effect of Party Cues on Support for International Bailouts in the European Union
Previous research finds citizens' attitudes towards international redistribution in the European sovereign debt crisis to be related to party preferences. This article further reveals the nature of this link. We show that citizens follow party cues on international bailouts, rather than having merely ideologically congruent positions. By employing an original survey experiment that exposes respondents to elite cues, we additionally uncover underl…
Contact and Community: The Role of Social Interactions for a Political Identity
Can social interaction contribute to a sense of community that transcends national borders? This question was initially raised by Deutsch (1953) and revived by Fligstein (2008). My analysis makes two contributions to this literature. First, insights from social psychology are applied to specify the microfoundations for why contact across group boundaries can be related to a collective identity. Second, a new three‐wave panel data set is used to e…
How Politics Shape Views Toward Fact-Checking: Evidence from Six European Countries
Fact-checking has spread internationally, in part to confront the rise of digital disinformation campaigns. American studies suggests ideological asymmetry in attitudes toward fact-checking, as well as greater acceptance of the practice among those more interested in and knowledgeable about politics. We examine attitudes toward fact-checking across six European counties to put these findings in a broader context ( N = 6,067). We find greater fami…
Political tolerance in Europe: The role of conspiratorial thinking and cosmopolitanism
Tolerance has long been identified as a crucial feature of liberal democracies. Although the limits of tolerance are debated, the extent to which citizens are open and willing to accommodate others who are different from them is often regarded as a sign of a healthy and well‐functioning liberal democracy. The goal of this paper is to empirically investigate the state of political tolerance in Europe today. The main questions we ask are: What expl…
The Effects of Forecasts on the Accuracy and Precision of Expectations
Quantitative forecasts have become increasingly prominent as tools for aiding public understanding of sociopolitical trends. But how much, and what, do people learn from quantitative forecasts? In this note, we show through a preregistered survey experiment that real forecasts of the 2022 French presidential election significantly affect expectations of the election result. The direction of that effect hinges on how the forecast is presented. Vot…
Wishful thinking in response to events: Evidence from the 2021 German federal election
When making uncertain judgments about the political future, people consistently see desired outcomes as more likely. But when major events reduce uncertainty about what is possible in the future, how do people's expectations respond? In a panel study conducted during the 2021 German federal election, we find that citizens' predictions of likely coalitions converge after the election takes place, but even after this convergence those expectations …
Public perceptions and misperceptions of political authority in the European Union
How do citizens understand political authority within multi-level systems? We use original survey data from six European Union member states to assess the roles of political identity and interest in shaping citizen attitudes towards political authority in the European Union. We find that citizens with a greater interest in politics are more likely to express views on the authority of the European Union. These individuals are less likely to be uni…
Ambivalent or indifferent? Reconsidering the structure of EU public opinion
In the US context, research on ambivalence has established that individuals often simultaneously possess positive and negative considerations on a political object. Yet little is known about ambivalence in support for European integration. This article proposes a measure that distinguishes ambivalence from indifference in attitudes towards the European Union (EU). Using data from Eurobarometer wave 63.4 and the Chapel Hill expert survey I find th…
When European integration becomes costly: The euro crisis and public support for European economic governance
This article analyses preferences for European economic governance in the European sovereign debt crisis. We assess citizens' opinions on increased intergovernmental co-operation and supranational governance in the economic sphere. We argue that current efforts to tackle the euro crisis do not benefit the typical ‘winners of European integration’. Moreover, European economic governance constitutes an even greater perceived threat to national iden…
Contact and Community: The Role of Social Interactions for a Political Identity
Can social interaction contribute to a sense of community that transcends national borders? This question was initially raised by Deutsch (1953) and revived by Fligstein (2008). My analysis makes two contributions to this literature. First, insights from social psychology are applied to specify the microfoundations for why contact across group boundaries can be related to a collective identity. Second, a new three‐wave panel data set is used to e…
Mobilizing Citizens for Costly Policies: The Conditional Effect of Party Cues on Support for International Bailouts in the European Union
Previous research finds citizens' attitudes towards international redistribution in the European sovereign debt crisis to be related to party preferences. This article further reveals the nature of this link. We show that citizens follow party cues on international bailouts, rather than having merely ideologically congruent positions. By employing an original survey experiment that exposes respondents to elite cues, we additionally uncover underl…
The politics of international redistribution: Explaining public support for fiscal transfers in the EU
As a consequence of the Eurozone crisis and the creation of the European Stability Mechanism (ESM), the prospect of a transfer union has become a particularly contested aspect of European integration. How should one understand the public backlash against fiscal transfers? And, what explains voter preferences for international transfers more generally? Using data from the 2014 European Elections Study (EES), this article describes the first cross‐…
How Politics Shape Views Toward Fact-Checking: Evidence from Six European Countries
Fact-checking has spread internationally, in part to confront the rise of digital disinformation campaigns. American studies suggests ideological asymmetry in attitudes toward fact-checking, as well as greater acceptance of the practice among those more interested in and knowledgeable about politics. We examine attitudes toward fact-checking across six European counties to put these findings in a broader context ( N = 6,067). We find greater fami…
Partisanship and anti-elite worldviews as correlates of science and health beliefs in the multi-party system of Spain
In a national sample of 5087 Spaniards, we examine the prevalence of 10 specific misperceptions over five separate science and health domains (climate change, 5G technology, genetically modified foods, vaccines, and homeopathy). We find that misperceptions about genetically modified foods and general health risks of 5G technology are particularly widespread. While we find that partisan affiliation is not strongly associated with any of the misper…
Political tolerance in Europe: The role of conspiratorial thinking and cosmopolitanism
Tolerance has long been identified as a crucial feature of liberal democracies. Although the limits of tolerance are debated, the extent to which citizens are open and willing to accommodate others who are different from them is often regarded as a sign of a healthy and well‐functioning liberal democracy. The goal of this paper is to empirically investigate the state of political tolerance in Europe today. The main questions we ask are: What expl…
When experts matter: Variations in consensus messaging for vaccine and genetically modified organism safety
Does consensus messaging about contested science issues influence perceptions of consensus and/or personal beliefs? This question remains open, particularly for topics other than climate change and samples outside the United States. In a Spanish national sample (N = 5087), we use preregistered survey experiments to examine differential efficacy of variations in consensus messaging for vaccines and genetically modified organisms. We find that no v…
Public perceptions and misperceptions of political authority in the European Union
How do citizens understand political authority within multi-level systems? We use original survey data from six European Union member states to assess the roles of political identity and interest in shaping citizen attitudes towards political authority in the European Union. We find that citizens with a greater interest in politics are more likely to express views on the authority of the European Union. These individuals are less likely to be uni…
Wishful thinking in response to events: Evidence from the 2021 German federal election
When making uncertain judgments about the political future, people consistently see desired outcomes as more likely. But when major events reduce uncertainty about what is possible in the future, how do people's expectations respond? In a panel study conducted during the 2021 German federal election, we find that citizens' predictions of likely coalitions converge after the election takes place, but even after this convergence those expectations …
The Effects of Forecasts on the Accuracy and Precision of Expectations
Quantitative forecasts have become increasingly prominent as tools for aiding public understanding of sociopolitical trends. But how much, and what, do people learn from quantitative forecasts? In this note, we show through a preregistered survey experiment that real forecasts of the 2022 French presidential election significantly affect expectations of the election result. The direction of that effect hinges on how the forecast is presented. Vot…
The limits of Brexit prejudice
Since the Brexit referendum, two novel political identities, Leaver and Remainer, have gained political salience in the United Kingdom. Some work contends that Leavers and Remainers display great animus toward one another in ways similar to affective polarization (dislike of opposing partisans). However, it remains unclear whether the dislike is as deep as partisan affective polarization and whether these identities are still relevant several yea…
Political science (12 works) · Politics (10 works) · Economics (9 works) · Psychology (9 works) · European union (7 works) · Law (7 works) · Law (7 works) · Social Psychology (7 works) · Political economy (6 works) · European Union Policy and Governance (5 works)