Davis B Bobrow
Dados Biográficos
| ID | 205553 |
|---|---|
| NOME | Davis B Bobrow |
| PRENOMES | Davis B |
| SOBRENOME | Bobrow |
| ASSINATURA | BOBROW D B |
| AFILIAÇÕES | University of Pittsburgh |
| VERIFICADO | Não |
| TOTAL DE OBRAS | 61 |
| TOTAL DE CITAÇÕES | 171 |
| TOTAL COMO AUTOR | 60 |
| TOTAL COMO EDITOR | 1 |
| PRIMEIRO ANO DE PUBLICAÇÃO | 1956 |
| ANO MAIS RECENTE DE PUBLICAÇÃO | 2013 |
| ÍNDICE H | 8 |
Social and Cultural Factors
This article discusses the social and cultural factors of public policy. It first looks at the intellectual history of these two factors, before discussing variety in public policy. One section shows how to come to terms with variety in public policy, while another section shows how to find variety in public policy.
Hegemony Constrained
Keeping the Old While Adding the New
The central argument of Beyond Bilateralism, made in T. J. Pempel's Introduction, is that US–Japan relations have been changed fundamentally as a result of three developments: geopolitical changes resulting from the end of the Cold War system, the growth of international flows of private capital, and the proliferation and evolution of multilateral governmental organizations. Indeed, Pempel argues that the joint effects of these three developments…
Japan-U.S. Alliance
Visions of (In)Security and American Strategic Style
This essay was stimulated (provoked) by discussions in three separate venues: (1) a U.S. Naval War College conference on “Alternative Futures in War and Conflict: Implications for U.S. National Security,” held in late 1999; (2) several recent widely circulated “blue-ribbon” reports on the subject; and (3) recent papers emerging from the U.S. defense bureaucracy speculating on strategic visions of the next ten to twenty years. My contention is tha…
Public Opinion and International Policy Choices
To understand the prospects for global order and progress in the coming years, we explore the joint implications of three premises: (1) states advantaged by the current international order have stakes in its regularity and predictability, and thus in moving to counter or prevent threats to those stakes; (2) along impure public and club goods lines, they are more likely to make efforts to do so when some private or club benefits result; and (3) pu…
Japanese Foreign Policy
Prospecting the Future
Journal Article Prospecting the Future Get access Davis B. Bobrow Davis B. Bobrow University of Pittsburgh Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Scholar International Studies Review, Volume 1, Issue 2, Summer 1999, Pages 1–10, https://doi.org/10.1111/1521-9488.00153 Published: 17 December 2002
Hegemony management
Managing hegemony is a hardy staple of Asia‐Pacific affairs, and indeed that regional notion was invented in part with an eye to it. Hegemony involves power asset distributions, their normative justifications, and imputed strategies to shape both. Managing hegemony treats what parties do to live with or modify distributions, justifications, and strategies. The parties are in roles: current hegemon, potential hegemon, or denier. Their actions depe…
The US and Asem
Relationships with the United States and American policy preferences have been important to the Asian and European members of ASEM in its establishment and activities. Yet US policy, business, and media elites have paid little public attention to ASEM. The puzzle is why not. Explanations of inattentiveness or foresight about Asia's economic difficulties are unpersuasive. Instead, American ‘silence’ seems fits with a reasoned understanding among i…
On Being Strategic
Trade, power and Apec
This paper is about the relationship between foreign trade and national power in the contemporary Asia Pacific. Imports and exports among the APEC (Asia Pacific Economic Community) members are studied over time in order to assess the extent to which this trade has evolved in ways which ceteris paribus provide the larger trading states with more or less leverage to influence the smaller ones. We offer a conceptual discussion of conditions that are…
International System Stability and American Decline
In the World of International Affairs Punditry, it is both fashionable and profitable to take extreme positions about the future of international relations. What is happening and what will happen in the world, however, is more complex and almost always less extreme than the predictions that catch the attention of the popular press and even the front-line scholarly journals. Such is the case for discussions of American decline and the prospects fo…
Maintaining System Stability
This article examines the ways and degrees to which nation-states participate in and financially support United Nations peacekeeping operations (UN PKOs). The authors contend that UN PKOs are impure public goods whose provision conforms to expectations from public goods theory that deals with the provision of impure public goods and club goods, and much less to the hegemonic stability variant of the public goods approach. Conceptual arguments are…
Bilateral and multilateral foreign aid
We propose and apply a crude categorization of development aid forms ranging from those with a larger private to a larger public goods component. We reason that the degree of 'privateness' is greatest with the highest probability of direct financial compensation and the greatest control by the 'national' donor (be it private or public sector). This categorization is used to comparatively analyze foreign aid spending by Japan, the United States, a…
Southeast Asian prospects and realities
We present and consider five alternative scenarios of development — past, present and future — for Southeast Asia. Longitudinal data on foreign direct investment, trade, and currency valuation provide our basis for understanding the relations among the countries in this region as well as their relations with major external powers, especially the United States, Japan, and China. Our analysis suggests regional diversity rather than uniformity, with…
Complex Insecurity
Insecurity in international affairs is inherently complex and diverse. As a result debates about its content and conception tend to be familiar, recurrent, and inconclusive as they attempt to exclude some possibilities as a general matter in favor of others. Consequences now and in the past have included incompleteness, partial irrelevance, and underspecification of policy recommendations. That has and does occur with respect to military versus n…
Japan's Development Assistance
Non-Military Determinants of Military Budgets
A theory of military budgets should include the non-military purposes they may serve, and it should distinguish between the roles played by policy rules reflecting those purposes and rules reflecting norms for the budgetary process per se. For advanced industrialized countries whose international relations center on the U.S., the non-military purposes of particular relevance are those which emphasize macroeconomic performance, a security concepti…
The success trap
Stories Remembered and Forgotten
Previous and recent writings on the Cuban missile crisis call into question the sorts of history that can and should be available for international security policy and analysis. The capacity of history is seriously limited with respect to evaluations of crisis outcomes, prescriptive and cautionary maxims, narrative completeness, and cause-and-effect inferences. Yet history as remembered is a valuable and inherent part of national security thinkin…
Japan in the World
Japanese public opinion on foreign and defense policy warrants longitudinal analysis as an extreme case of change and lack of interest in international diplomatic and military activism. Data for the post-Occupation period through 1984 are examined for the effects of age, generation, and situation; more recent aggregate poll data are used to check for recent changes. Little support appears for strong, ongoing shifts from international passivism to…
Japanese Public Opinion and the War on Terrorism
Japanese Foreign Policy at the Crossroads
Japan in International Politics
Maintaining System Stability
This article examines the ways and degrees to which nation-states participate in and financially support United Nations peacekeeping operations (UN PKOs). The authors contend that UN PKOs are impure public goods whose provision conforms to expectations from public goods theory that deals with the provision of impure public goods and club goods, and much less to the hegemonic stability variant of the public goods approach. Conceptual arguments are…
Understanding How Others Treat Crises
In this paper, we apply an ensemble of research methods to study the crisis perceptions and behavior of the People's Republic of China. The results suggest two important desiderata with regard to analysis for improving crisis forecasting and management. First, we should not automatically assume that decision-makers in different countries share homogeneous views about the origin and development of crises and about appropriate measures for resolvin…
Theory, Policy, and Resource Cartels
Our choice of theoretical perspectives to apply to resource cartels seriously affects the questions we ask, the predictions we make, and the policy suggestions we draw. In this paper we examine the implications (and the limitations) of five perspectives for the analysis of resource cartels in general and the Organization of Petroleum-Exporting Countries (OPEC) in particular: the theory of cartels; the theory of depletable resources; coalition the…
Japan in the World
Japanese public opinion on foreign and defense policy warrants longitudinal analysis as an extreme case of change and lack of interest in international diplomatic and military activism. Data for the post-Occupation period through 1984 are examined for the effects of age, generation, and situation; more recent aggregate poll data are used to check for recent changes. Little support appears for strong, ongoing shifts from international passivism to…
U.S. Policy toward Foreign Direct Investment
Foreign investment policy is an increasingly important part of overall foreign policy. The authors investigate the substance of U.S. outgoing foreign direct investment (OFDI) and incoming foreign direct investment (IFDI) policy in terms of a small set of policy values and process factors. The policy values are domestic prosperity, national autonomy, and national security. The process factors are ideological consonance, impact transparency, the di…
Energy R&D
Continued dependence on expensive imported liquid fuels puts stress on the relations among and the domestic performance of the members of OECD. Coordinated energy R&D could in principle lessen those stresses and also benefit other liquid fuel consumers. A political economy approach can help explain the tepid pursuit of this possibility in two ways. First, it can clarify the reasons for the weak collective action energy R&D record of the members o…
The Place of Policy Analysis in Political Science
The Relevance Potential of Different Products
International relations analysts now use a wide range of ideas and techniques. Concepts and styles of reasoning clearly reflect work in economics, organizational behavior, social psychology, operations research and many other fields. Facts thought relevant are the facts customarily used in these other fields. Methods for relating facts to each other and to ideas are increasingly those of logic, statistics and mathematics. What are the implication…
Complex Insecurity
Insecurity in international affairs is inherently complex and diverse. As a result debates about its content and conception tend to be familiar, recurrent, and inconclusive as they attempt to exclude some possibilities as a general matter in favor of others. Consequences now and in the past have included incompleteness, partial irrelevance, and underspecification of policy recommendations. That has and does occur with respect to military versus n…
The US and Asem
Relationships with the United States and American policy preferences have been important to the Asian and European members of ASEM in its establishment and activities. Yet US policy, business, and media elites have paid little public attention to ASEM. The puzzle is why not. Explanations of inattentiveness or foresight about Asia's economic difficulties are unpersuasive. Instead, American ‘silence’ seems fits with a reasoned understanding among i…
How Middle Powers Can Manage Resource Weakness
The post-World War II world has seen the transformation of the international system from a configuration with several rival great powers into one with two superpowers and a set of lesser but still substantial powers—second-tier states with democratic politics and mixed economies. One of the recurrent concerns of the latter has been to secure supplies of natural resources. We argue that postwar conditions point to eight elements of prudent resourc…
Stories Remembered and Forgotten
Previous and recent writings on the Cuban missile crisis call into question the sorts of history that can and should be available for international security policy and analysis. The capacity of history is seriously limited with respect to evaluations of crisis outcomes, prescriptive and cautionary maxims, narrative completeness, and cause-and-effect inferences. Yet history as remembered is a valuable and inherent part of national security thinkin…
Interest and Influence in Foreign Affairs
Journal Article Interest and Influence in Foreign Affairs Get access KENNETH P. ADLER, KENNETH P. ADLER Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Scholar DAVIS BOBROW DAVIS BOBROW * Mr. Adler is Instructor in Communication and secretary of the Committee on Communication at the UniTenity of Chicago. Mr. Bobrow is a Ford Behavioral Sciences Fellow and Rhodes Scholar elect doing graduate work in the Committee. Search for other…
Prospecting the Future
Journal Article Prospecting the Future Get access Davis B. Bobrow Davis B. Bobrow University of Pittsburgh Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Scholar International Studies Review, Volume 1, Issue 2, Summer 1999, Pages 1–10, https://doi.org/10.1111/1521-9488.00153 Published: 17 December 2002
Hegemony management
Managing hegemony is a hardy staple of Asia‐Pacific affairs, and indeed that regional notion was invented in part with an eye to it. Hegemony involves power asset distributions, their normative justifications, and imputed strategies to shape both. Managing hegemony treats what parties do to live with or modify distributions, justifications, and strategies. The parties are in roles: current hegemon, potential hegemon, or denier. Their actions depe…
Southeast Asian prospects and realities
We present and consider five alternative scenarios of development — past, present and future — for Southeast Asia. Longitudinal data on foreign direct investment, trade, and currency valuation provide our basis for understanding the relations among the countries in this region as well as their relations with major external powers, especially the United States, Japan, and China. Our analysis suggests regional diversity rather than uniformity, with…
Non-Military Determinants of Military Budgets
A theory of military budgets should include the non-military purposes they may serve, and it should distinguish between the roles played by policy rules reflecting those purposes and rules reflecting norms for the budgetary process per se. For advanced industrialized countries whose international relations center on the U.S., the non-military purposes of particular relevance are those which emphasize macroeconomic performance, a security concepti…
Soldiers and the Nation-State
Recognition of the need to consider the military an actor in political development has yet to produce adequate formats to describe its role in political development or reliable predictors of the role which particular armies will play. This article suggests a strategy to describe and measure the inputs of the military into political development and to work toward pre dictors of the inputs which different armies will make. When the analyst describe…
Public Opinion and International Policy Choices
To understand the prospects for global order and progress in the coming years, we explore the joint implications of three premises: (1) states advantaged by the current international order have stakes in its regularity and predictability, and thus in moving to counter or prevent threats to those stakes; (2) along impure public and club goods lines, they are more likely to make efforts to do so when some private or club benefits result; and (3) pu…
Trade, power and Apec
This paper is about the relationship between foreign trade and national power in the contemporary Asia Pacific. Imports and exports among the APEC (Asia Pacific Economic Community) members are studied over time in order to assess the extent to which this trade has evolved in ways which ceteris paribus provide the larger trading states with more or less leverage to influence the smaller ones. We offer a conceptual discussion of conditions that are…
Japan's Development Assistance
Assets, Liabilities, and Strategic Conduct
Horse Races, Security Markets, and Foreign Relations
We report an attempt to use financial market data to predict the onset of a variety of international crises. A quasi-experimental design for studying interrupted time series data is applied to the historical behavior of the Hong Kong and New York financial markets. The results are generally disappointing. These markets seem more likely to react to rather than anticipate crisis developments, and frequently issue "false alarms." Comparison of resul…
Preparing for unwanted events
The problems posed by international political terrorism, the likely performances of governments facing such challenges, and advisable preparatory coping strategies all benefit from systematic consideration of the experience, provided by practices and analyses of attempts to avoid and manage other forms of international crises. This paper pursues such a perspective to supplement more familiar approaches that use police and disaster amelioration po…
Contrived Scarcity
A retrospective examination is made of the short-term economic impact of the petroleum price increase on different groups of countries. Four variables that are expected to influence economic performance, as measured by changes in real GNP, are isolated and their impact on subsequent economic performance is tested by regression analysis. While the regression equations account for a very sizeable portion of the variance in subsequent economic perfo…
Interest and Influence in Foreign Affairs
Journal Article Interest and Influence in Foreign Affairs Get access KENNETH P. ADLER, KENNETH P. ADLER Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Scholar DAVIS BOBROW DAVIS BOBROW * Mr. Adler is Instructor in Communication and secretary of the Committee on Communication at the UniTenity of Chicago. Mr. Bobrow is a Ford Behavioral Sciences Fellow and Rhodes Scholar elect doing graduate work in the Committee. Search for other…
Peking's military calculus
CHINESE Communist military policy significantly affects our preparations for war and hopes for peace. However, we have few public studies of Chinese military policy and the reasoning on which it rests.1 This article tries to set forth the calculus or rationale which employs to select military strategy and tactics. In other words, it makes no attempt to attack or defend Chinese military policy or to appraise that policy's specific strengths and we…
Peking's Military Calculus
Chinese Communist military policy significantly affects our preparations for war and hopes for peace. However, we have few public studies of Chinese military policy and the reasoning on which it rests.1This article tries to set forth the calculus or rationale which Peking employs to select military strategy and tactics. In other words, it makes no attempt to attack or defend Chinese military policy or to appraise that policy's specific strengths …
Southeast Asia in United States Policy
Soldiers and the Nation-State
Recognition of the need to consider the military an actor in political development has yet to produce adequate formats to describe its role in political development or reliable predictors of the role which particular armies will play. This article suggests a strategy to describe and measure the inputs of the military into political development and to work toward pre dictors of the inputs which different armies will make. When the analyst describe…
Chinese views on escalation
The Civic Role of the Military
Old Dragons in New Models
An abstract is not available for this content so a preview has been provided. Please use the Get access link above for information on how to access this content
System Sesar
Computer techniques have applications in locating and retrieving information from sample survey data banks Allen Wilcox is a consultant to Oak Ridge National Laboratory, where Davis Bobrow is Senior Social Scientist in the Direc tor's Division. Douglas Bwy is Assistant Professor of Politi cal Science, Western Reserve University
Organization of American National Security Opinions
Journal Article ORGANIZATION OF AMERICAN NATIONAL SECURITY OPINIONS Get access DAVIS B. BOBROW DAVIS B. BOBROW Dr. Bobrow, currently Special Assistant for die Behavioral and Social Sciences in the Office of the Director of Defense Research and Engineering, prepared and submitted this paper while Senior Social Scientist at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory. An earlier version appeared as ORNL TM-1818, October, 1967, for which Allen R. Wilcox imple…
Computers and a normative model of the policy process
Weapons System Decisions
Change, caution, and computers
The Relevance Potential of Different Products
International relations analysts now use a wide range of ideas and techniques. Concepts and styles of reasoning clearly reflect work in economics, organizational behavior, social psychology, operations research and many other fields. Facts thought relevant are the facts customarily used in these other fields. Methods for relating facts to each other and to ideas are increasingly those of logic, statistics and mathematics. What are the implication…
Analysis and foreign policy choice
Military Research and Development
Military research and development ( R & D ) , whatever its national security contribution, allegedly imposes substantial opportunity costs on the civil sector. A factual analysis does not support the view that military R & D has recently been or in the future will be a dominant reason: for funding and manpower shortages in civilian R & D, for the lack of technological supremacy in American industry, for the lack of technological solutions to majo…
Mass Communication and the Political System
Journal Article MASS COMMUNICATION AND THE POLITICAL SYSTEM Get access DAVIS B. BOBROW DAVIS B. BOBROW Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Scholar Public Opinion Quarterly, Volume 37, Issue 4, WINTER 1973, Pages 551–568, https://doi.org/10.1086/268112 Published: 01 January 1973
Theory, Policy, and Resource Cartels
Our choice of theoretical perspectives to apply to resource cartels seriously affects the questions we ask, the predictions we make, and the policy suggestions we draw. In this paper we examine the implications (and the limitations) of five perspectives for the analysis of resource cartels in general and the Organization of Petroleum-Exporting Countries (OPEC) in particular: the theory of cartels; the theory of depletable resources; coalition the…
Contrived Scarcity
A retrospective examination is made of the short-term economic impact of the petroleum price increase on different groups of countries. Four variables that are expected to influence economic performance, as measured by changes in real GNP, are isolated and their impact on subsequent economic performance is tested by regression analysis. While the regression equations account for a very sizeable portion of the variance in subsequent economic perfo…
Understanding How Others Treat Crises
In this paper, we apply an ensemble of research methods to study the crisis perceptions and behavior of the People's Republic of China. The results suggest two important desiderata with regard to analysis for improving crisis forecasting and management. First, we should not automatically assume that decision-makers in different countries share homogeneous views about the origin and development of crises and about appropriate measures for resolvin…
The Place of Policy Analysis in Political Science
Preparing for unwanted events
The problems posed by international political terrorism, the likely performances of governments facing such challenges, and advisable preparatory coping strategies all benefit from systematic consideration of the experience, provided by practices and analyses of attempts to avoid and manage other forms of international crises. This paper pursues such a perspective to supplement more familiar approaches that use police and disaster amelioration po…
Energy R&D
Continued dependence on expensive imported liquid fuels puts stress on the relations among and the domestic performance of the members of OECD. Coordinated energy R&D could in principle lessen those stresses and also benefit other liquid fuel consumers. A political economy approach can help explain the tepid pursuit of this possibility in two ways. First, it can clarify the reasons for the weak collective action energy R&D record of the members o…
Communication and Information Dimensions of Arms Control
More than a decade of emphasis on arms control through agreed numerical ceilings on weapons by type has failed to create a safer world or slowed the trend toward the increasing number, sophistication, and proliferation of destructive capacities. Accordingly, it is past time for renewed and major attention to arms control through communication and information regimes–to C3/I, i.e., communications, command and control, and intelligence. Priorities …
Energy R&D
An abstract is not available for this content so a preview has been provided. Please use the Get access link above for information on how to access this content
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