Justin Schon
Biographic Data
| ID | 2059959 |
|---|---|
| NAME | Justin Schon |
| GIVEN NAMES | Justin |
| FAMILY NAME | Schon |
| SIGNATURE | SCHON J |
| AFFILIATIONS | University of Florida |
| ORCID | 0000-0003-3021-5128 |
| VERIFIED | Yes |
| TOTAL WORKS | 16 |
| TOTAL CITATIONS | 97 |
| AUTHOR COUNT | 16 |
| EDITOR COUNT | 0 |
| FIRST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2015 |
| LATEST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2024 |
| H-INDEX | 6 |
Climate Harshness, Opportunity, and Environmental Violence
Will climate change affect how armed actors behave toward civilians? Scholars analyzed different links between environmental variability and war, but research on links between the former and violence against civilians is very limited. Focusing on the Sahara Desert transition zone, which stretches across the entire African continent, we argue that climate harshness raises the willingness of actors to engage in competitive violence over resources. …
The need for willingness and opportunity: Analyzing where and when environmental variability influences conflict in the Sahel
Response to Kevin Mazur’s Review of Surviving the War in Syria: Survival Strategies in a Time of Conflict
An abstract is not available for this content so a preview has been provided. Please use the Get access link above for information on how to access this content
Moving into Terrorism: How Climate-Induced Rural-Urban Migration May Increase the Risk of Terrorism
How can we expect climate change to affect terrorism? Research on climate-conflict links argues that climate and conflict are unlikely to exhibit a direct relationship. Instead, these links are likely to be indirect, often through negative shocks to agriculture. Even then, politics remains a far stronger influence on conflict than climate. Terrorism appears particularly unlikely to be directly linked to climate change, since climate change dispro…
How fire patterns reveal uneven stabilization at the end of conflict: Examining Syria’s unusual fire year in 2019
In 2019, Syria experienced its largest outbreak of fires since 2003, when fire occurrence began to be monitored via the MODIS satellite instruments. Here, we combine remotely sensed data on fire, local climatic conditions, and vegetation with spatial data on violence, territorial control, and return of internally displaced persons (IDPs) to explore the underlying causes of Syria’s fires at the sub-district, or ADM-3, level. We find evidence for a…
How Narratives and Evidence Influence Rumor Belief in Conflict Zones: Evidence from Syria
Armed conflict creates a context of high uncertainty and risk, where accurate and verifiable information is extremely difficult to find. This is a prime environment for unverified information—rumors—to spread. Meanwhile, there is insufficient understanding of exactly how rumor transmission occurs within conflict zones. I address this with an examination of the mechanisms through which people evaluate new information. Building on findings from res…
Why Physical Barriers Backfire: How Immigration Enforcement Deters Return and Increases Asylum Applications
What, if any, effect do physical barriers have on cross-border population movements? The foundational claim that barriers reduce migration flows remains unsupported. We conceptualize barriers as a tool of immigration enforcement, which we contend is one form of state repression. State repression could reduce mobilization (reduce immigration), have no effect on mobilization (barriers as symbolic political tools), or increase mobilization (backfire…
The consequences of internal displacement on civil war violence: Evidence from Syria
Surviving the War in Syria: Survival Strategies in a Time of Conflict
It is estimated that of Syria's pre-war population, over half have been displaced from their homes, some having moved abroad and many remaining in the country despite the threats posed by civil war from Bashar Assad's government, ISIS, foreign intervention, and a proliferation of rebel groups and militias. Despite this, migration is just one option out of a broad set of potential self-protection strategies available to civilians, with other strat…
How pro-government militia ethnic relationships influence violence against civilians
How do ethnic links between governments and pro-government militias (PGMs) affect the abusive behaviour of PGMs? PGMs may recruit irrespective of ethnic group (Non-Ethnic PGMs), from the ethnic group that controls the government (Dominant PGMs), from quiescent groups not in control of the government (Peripheral PGMs), and from ethnic groups actively rebelling against the government (Defector PGMs). PGMs recruited on ethnic lines tend to have info…
Spatial analysis of bureaucrats' attempts to resist political capture in a developing democracy: The distribution of solar panels in Ghana
Motivation and opportunity for conflict-induced migration: An analysis of Syrian migration timing
How do civilians decide when to leave their homes during conflict? Existing research emphasizes the role of violence in driving civilian migration decisions. Yet, migration timing often does not correspond with the timing of violence. To explain this discrepancy, I argue that violence fits within broader considerations of motivation and opportunity to migrate. Witnessing violence triggers post-traumatic growth that delays narrative ruptures and t…
Introducing the African Relational Pro-Government Militia Dataset (RPGMD)
This paper introduces the African Relational Pro-Government Militia Dataset (RPGMD). Recent research has improved our understandings of how pro-government forces form, under what conditions they are most likely to act, and how they affect the risk of internal conflict, repression, and state fragility. In this paper, we give an overview of our dataset that identifies African pro-government militias (PGMs) from 1997 to 2014. The data set shows the …
Using ERGMs to Disaggregate Displacement Cascades
How do civilians select internal displacement destinations during conflict? Existing research emphasizes the value of cascades as a guide to making these difficult decisions. Cascades may involve civilians following people in their social networks (community cascades), people with similar characteristics (co-ethnic cascades), or the crowd in general (herd cascades). Analyses relying upon interview or regression-based methodological approaches fac…
The centrality of checkpoints for civilians during conflict
Analyses of the violence–displacement relationship motivate a disaggregation of violence into violence in residential areas (home violence) and violence along migration routes (road violence). These two forms of violence have opposite effects upon displacement, with home violence increasing displacement and road violence decreasing displacement. Yet, conflict scholarship would benefit from additional consideration of the specific activities that …
Focus on the Forest, Not the Trees: A Changepoint Model of Forced Displacement
What causes forced displacement flows, defined as refugee or internally displaced person (IDP) flows, to vary over time within conflict? While forced displacement displays clear relationships with conflict dynamics, little is known about what actually causes forced displacement to vary during a conflict and when that variation is likely to occur. This article explores whether fluctuations in daily violence levels, structural aspects of conflict o…
Motivation and opportunity for conflict-induced migration: An analysis of Syrian migration timing
How do civilians decide when to leave their homes during conflict? Existing research emphasizes the role of violence in driving civilian migration decisions. Yet, migration timing often does not correspond with the timing of violence. To explain this discrepancy, I argue that violence fits within broader considerations of motivation and opportunity to migrate. Witnessing violence triggers post-traumatic growth that delays narrative ruptures and t…
Why Physical Barriers Backfire: How Immigration Enforcement Deters Return and Increases Asylum Applications
What, if any, effect do physical barriers have on cross-border population movements? The foundational claim that barriers reduce migration flows remains unsupported. We conceptualize barriers as a tool of immigration enforcement, which we contend is one form of state repression. State repression could reduce mobilization (reduce immigration), have no effect on mobilization (barriers as symbolic political tools), or increase mobilization (backfire…
How Narratives and Evidence Influence Rumor Belief in Conflict Zones: Evidence from Syria
Armed conflict creates a context of high uncertainty and risk, where accurate and verifiable information is extremely difficult to find. This is a prime environment for unverified information—rumors—to spread. Meanwhile, there is insufficient understanding of exactly how rumor transmission occurs within conflict zones. I address this with an examination of the mechanisms through which people evaluate new information. Building on findings from res…
The centrality of checkpoints for civilians during conflict
Analyses of the violence–displacement relationship motivate a disaggregation of violence into violence in residential areas (home violence) and violence along migration routes (road violence). These two forms of violence have opposite effects upon displacement, with home violence increasing displacement and road violence decreasing displacement. Yet, conflict scholarship would benefit from additional consideration of the specific activities that …
Focus on the Forest, Not the Trees: A Changepoint Model of Forced Displacement
What causes forced displacement flows, defined as refugee or internally displaced person (IDP) flows, to vary over time within conflict? While forced displacement displays clear relationships with conflict dynamics, little is known about what actually causes forced displacement to vary during a conflict and when that variation is likely to occur. This article explores whether fluctuations in daily violence levels, structural aspects of conflict o…
Introducing the African Relational Pro-Government Militia Dataset (RPGMD)
This paper introduces the African Relational Pro-Government Militia Dataset (RPGMD). Recent research has improved our understandings of how pro-government forces form, under what conditions they are most likely to act, and how they affect the risk of internal conflict, repression, and state fragility. In this paper, we give an overview of our dataset that identifies African pro-government militias (PGMs) from 1997 to 2014. The data set shows the …
The consequences of internal displacement on civil war violence: Evidence from Syria
Using ERGMs to Disaggregate Displacement Cascades
How do civilians select internal displacement destinations during conflict? Existing research emphasizes the value of cascades as a guide to making these difficult decisions. Cascades may involve civilians following people in their social networks (community cascades), people with similar characteristics (co-ethnic cascades), or the crowd in general (herd cascades). Analyses relying upon interview or regression-based methodological approaches fac…
Moving into Terrorism: How Climate-Induced Rural-Urban Migration May Increase the Risk of Terrorism
How can we expect climate change to affect terrorism? Research on climate-conflict links argues that climate and conflict are unlikely to exhibit a direct relationship. Instead, these links are likely to be indirect, often through negative shocks to agriculture. Even then, politics remains a far stronger influence on conflict than climate. Terrorism appears particularly unlikely to be directly linked to climate change, since climate change dispro…
Spatial analysis of bureaucrats' attempts to resist political capture in a developing democracy: The distribution of solar panels in Ghana
Focus on the Forest, Not the Trees: A Changepoint Model of Forced Displacement
What causes forced displacement flows, defined as refugee or internally displaced person (IDP) flows, to vary over time within conflict? While forced displacement displays clear relationships with conflict dynamics, little is known about what actually causes forced displacement to vary during a conflict and when that variation is likely to occur. This article explores whether fluctuations in daily violence levels, structural aspects of conflict o…
The centrality of checkpoints for civilians during conflict
Analyses of the violence–displacement relationship motivate a disaggregation of violence into violence in residential areas (home violence) and violence along migration routes (road violence). These two forms of violence have opposite effects upon displacement, with home violence increasing displacement and road violence decreasing displacement. Yet, conflict scholarship would benefit from additional consideration of the specific activities that …
Introducing the African Relational Pro-Government Militia Dataset (RPGMD)
This paper introduces the African Relational Pro-Government Militia Dataset (RPGMD). Recent research has improved our understandings of how pro-government forces form, under what conditions they are most likely to act, and how they affect the risk of internal conflict, repression, and state fragility. In this paper, we give an overview of our dataset that identifies African pro-government militias (PGMs) from 1997 to 2014. The data set shows the …
Using ERGMs to Disaggregate Displacement Cascades
How do civilians select internal displacement destinations during conflict? Existing research emphasizes the value of cascades as a guide to making these difficult decisions. Cascades may involve civilians following people in their social networks (community cascades), people with similar characteristics (co-ethnic cascades), or the crowd in general (herd cascades). Analyses relying upon interview or regression-based methodological approaches fac…
Motivation and opportunity for conflict-induced migration: An analysis of Syrian migration timing
How do civilians decide when to leave their homes during conflict? Existing research emphasizes the role of violence in driving civilian migration decisions. Yet, migration timing often does not correspond with the timing of violence. To explain this discrepancy, I argue that violence fits within broader considerations of motivation and opportunity to migrate. Witnessing violence triggers post-traumatic growth that delays narrative ruptures and t…
Surviving the War in Syria: Survival Strategies in a Time of Conflict
It is estimated that of Syria's pre-war population, over half have been displaced from their homes, some having moved abroad and many remaining in the country despite the threats posed by civil war from Bashar Assad's government, ISIS, foreign intervention, and a proliferation of rebel groups and militias. Despite this, migration is just one option out of a broad set of potential self-protection strategies available to civilians, with other strat…
How pro-government militia ethnic relationships influence violence against civilians
How do ethnic links between governments and pro-government militias (PGMs) affect the abusive behaviour of PGMs? PGMs may recruit irrespective of ethnic group (Non-Ethnic PGMs), from the ethnic group that controls the government (Dominant PGMs), from quiescent groups not in control of the government (Peripheral PGMs), and from ethnic groups actively rebelling against the government (Defector PGMs). PGMs recruited on ethnic lines tend to have info…
Spatial analysis of bureaucrats' attempts to resist political capture in a developing democracy: The distribution of solar panels in Ghana
How fire patterns reveal uneven stabilization at the end of conflict: Examining Syria’s unusual fire year in 2019
In 2019, Syria experienced its largest outbreak of fires since 2003, when fire occurrence began to be monitored via the MODIS satellite instruments. Here, we combine remotely sensed data on fire, local climatic conditions, and vegetation with spatial data on violence, territorial control, and return of internally displaced persons (IDPs) to explore the underlying causes of Syria’s fires at the sub-district, or ADM-3, level. We find evidence for a…
How Narratives and Evidence Influence Rumor Belief in Conflict Zones: Evidence from Syria
Armed conflict creates a context of high uncertainty and risk, where accurate and verifiable information is extremely difficult to find. This is a prime environment for unverified information—rumors—to spread. Meanwhile, there is insufficient understanding of exactly how rumor transmission occurs within conflict zones. I address this with an examination of the mechanisms through which people evaluate new information. Building on findings from res…
Why Physical Barriers Backfire: How Immigration Enforcement Deters Return and Increases Asylum Applications
What, if any, effect do physical barriers have on cross-border population movements? The foundational claim that barriers reduce migration flows remains unsupported. We conceptualize barriers as a tool of immigration enforcement, which we contend is one form of state repression. State repression could reduce mobilization (reduce immigration), have no effect on mobilization (barriers as symbolic political tools), or increase mobilization (backfire…
The consequences of internal displacement on civil war violence: Evidence from Syria
Response to Kevin Mazur’s Review of Surviving the War in Syria: Survival Strategies in a Time of Conflict
An abstract is not available for this content so a preview has been provided. Please use the Get access link above for information on how to access this content
Moving into Terrorism: How Climate-Induced Rural-Urban Migration May Increase the Risk of Terrorism
How can we expect climate change to affect terrorism? Research on climate-conflict links argues that climate and conflict are unlikely to exhibit a direct relationship. Instead, these links are likely to be indirect, often through negative shocks to agriculture. Even then, politics remains a far stronger influence on conflict than climate. Terrorism appears particularly unlikely to be directly linked to climate change, since climate change dispro…
The need for willingness and opportunity: Analyzing where and when environmental variability influences conflict in the Sahel
Climate Harshness, Opportunity, and Environmental Violence
Will climate change affect how armed actors behave toward civilians? Scholars analyzed different links between environmental variability and war, but research on links between the former and violence against civilians is very limited. Focusing on the Sahara Desert transition zone, which stretches across the entire African continent, we argue that climate harshness raises the willingness of actors to engage in competitive violence over resources. …
Political science (14 works) · Law (10 works) · Political Conflict and Governance (9 works) · Psychology (9 works) · Sociology (9 works) · Economics (7 works) · Law (7 works) · Geography (6 works) · Refugee (6 works) · Criminology (5 works)