Francesco Saraceno
Biographic Data
| ID | 224494 |
|---|---|
| NAME | Francesco Saraceno |
| GIVEN NAMES | Francesco |
| FAMILY NAME | Saraceno |
| SIGNATURE | SARACENO F |
| AFFILIATIONS | Institut d'Etudes Politiques de Paris |
| ORCID | 0000-0003-0121-4329 |
| VERIFIED | Yes |
| TOTAL WORKS | 16 |
| TOTAL CITATIONS | 11 |
| AUTHOR COUNT | 15 |
| EDITOR COUNT | 1 |
| FIRST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2004 |
| LATEST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2026 |
| H-INDEX | 2 |
Europe and the race to structural transformation: A narrow path ahead
Since the Global Financial Crisis, the European Union (EU) has gone from crisis to crisis. The chronic growth and productivity problems have been compounded by the poor management of the Eurozone crisis, by the no-longer postponable green and digital transitions, and by the changing geopolitical environment, with the end of the old multilateral order. The European institutions still embed the principles of an old consensus based on market efficie…
Financing investment in times of high public debt: 2023 European public investment outlook
"The fourth book in the 'European Public Investment Outlook' series focuses on the urgent issue of how to finance needed investment in critical tangible and intangible infrastructure given high levels of public debt, a thorny problem facing many governments across Europe. Drawing on expertise from academics, researchers at public policy institutes and international governance bodies, the contributors analyse the current situation and prospects an…
Stabilising market expectations through a market tool: A proposal for an enhanced TPI
This paper puts forward a proposal to complete the ECB Transmission Protection Instrument (TPI) with the aim of making it more effective in anchoring the yields of European sovereign debts to Member States’ fundamentals. We use a model in which yields fluctuate within bands, which we specify following two alternative approaches: stochastic and deterministic. The resulting fluctuation's interval represents the range of yields that can be seen as j…
Europe After Covid-19: A New Role for German Leadership?
The German change of attitude concerning fiscal policy and the mutualisation of efforts to fight the pandemic is driven by self-interest, and as such might be structural.
European economic, fiscal, and social policy at the crossroads
Balance sheets after the EMU: An Assessment of the Redenomination Risk
The probability of a partial or complete break-up of the euro has risen over the last years. Such an event could create a balance sheet problem for economic agents, if the redenomination process introduced significant currency mismatches between the asset and liability sides. We propose a new assessment of this redenomination risk, by country and by main institutional sector, for two scenarios: a single country exit and a complete break-up. Our m…
Evolutions and Contradictions in Mainstream Macroeconomics: The Case of Olivier Blanchard
This article traces the complex intellectual path of Olivier Blanchard, a personification of the controversial evolution of macroeconomic research over the last three decades. After contributing to consolidation of the core of mainstream macroeconomics, Blanchard recently suggested ‘rethinking’ some of its key aspects to take stock of the lessons of the 2008 Great Recession, which he witnessed as the International Monetary Fund’s Chief Economist.…
Le plan Juncker peut-il nous sortir de l’ornière
Dans cet article nous effectuons un exercice quantitatif simple permettant d’évaluer l’impact du plan Juncker au sein de la zone euro et sa capacité à faire sortir les économies européennes de la situation de trappe à liquidités dans laquelle elles sont à présent. Nous estimons un modèle d’équilibre général intertemporel et stochastique (DSGE) de l’économie à partir de données agrégées sur la zone euro, dans lequel nous introduisons l’existence d…
The ECB: A reluctant leading character of the EMU play
The Lessons of the Crisis for EU Policy Making
L’article examine la vision dominante de la crise de l’UEM, souvent attribuée à Berlin, et exprimant un consensus macroéconomique qui émergea dans les années 1990. Ce consensus se fonde sur le refus des politiques discrétionnaires, particulièrement en matière fiscale, laissant au jeu du marché le soin de répondre aux choses macroéconomiques. Ce consensus constitua non seulement la réponse à la crise mais il fut à la base de la fondation de certai…
Reflections on Azawad Crisis and Malian Democracy: The Statehood, its Deficiencies and Inclusion Failure
The 1992 decentralization reform in Mali failed to address the deficiencies embedded within the state. The resurgence of the Azawad crisis and the coup d'état of March 2012 have made these limits striking. After a brief account of the causes behind the century-long decay of Tuareg people, I will show that the 2013 elections may only represent an ephemeral solution unless strong policies of institution strengthening are deployed and the northern e…
On the Long‐term Effects of Fiscal Policy in the United Kingdom: The Case for a Golden Rule
This paper uses the SVAR methodology to investigate the effects of public investment on GDP and, more specifically, the effects of the introduction of a golden rule of public finance. We extend the existing literature by estimating a model for the British economy that takes into account long‐run factors such as public debt accumulation and policy interactions. We find that in such a long‐run framework, public investment has a significant and perm…
Croissance par les exportations, fragilité financière et gradualisme: Quels défis pour la Chine
L’article commence par une discussion des caractéristiques de l’impressionnante performance macroéconomique de la Chine depuis que la réforme a été mise en place, en les rapportant au choix d’une stratégie de croissance fondée sur l’exportation. Nous soutenons qu’une telle stratégie provoque un changement structurel de l’économie dont l’analyse ne peut pas être limitée à la comparaison entre l’équilibre final et l’équilibre initial. Nous proposon…
Politique budgétaire discrétionnaire en France: Les effets à court et à long terme
Distinguer la part discrétionnaire d’une politique budgétaire n’est pas chose aisée. À partir d’un modèle vectoriel autorégressif et d’une procédure originale d’identification de la part discrétionnaire des dépenses publiques et des recettes fiscales, Blanchard et Perotti [2002, qje ] ont étudié avec beaucoup de rigueur les effets d’une politique budgétaire discrétionnaire sur le pib américain. En adoptant un modèle de plus long terme, dont les f…
Wage Flexibility and Unemployment: The Keynesian Perspective Revisited
Keynes' main concern in the General Theory is about the capacity of an economy to return to full employment equilibrium when subject to a (negative) demand shock. He maintains that money wages cuts may not help reabsorb unemployment, as they do not necessarily imply a fall in real wages. On the contrary, wage rigidity may be necessary for avoiding that a cumulative process propels the economy far away the full employment equilibrium. Co‐ordinatio…
Technological Shocks and the Conduct of Monetary Policy
This paper analyses the impact of alternative monetary policies on the performances of an economy facing technological changes. It shows that the restructuring of productive capacity necessary to embed the new technologies usually implies initial drops in employment and productivity, that are reabsorbed only if the transition is successful. Furthermore, it shows that the process disrupts the financial structure of firms (the coordination over tim…
Reflections on Azawad Crisis and Malian Democracy: The Statehood, its Deficiencies and Inclusion Failure
The 1992 decentralization reform in Mali failed to address the deficiencies embedded within the state. The resurgence of the Azawad crisis and the coup d'état of March 2012 have made these limits striking. After a brief account of the causes behind the century-long decay of Tuareg people, I will show that the 2013 elections may only represent an ephemeral solution unless strong policies of institution strengthening are deployed and the northern e…
European economic, fiscal, and social policy at the crossroads
Evolutions and Contradictions in Mainstream Macroeconomics: The Case of Olivier Blanchard
This article traces the complex intellectual path of Olivier Blanchard, a personification of the controversial evolution of macroeconomic research over the last three decades. After contributing to consolidation of the core of mainstream macroeconomics, Blanchard recently suggested ‘rethinking’ some of its key aspects to take stock of the lessons of the 2008 Great Recession, which he witnessed as the International Monetary Fund’s Chief Economist.…
Balance sheets after the EMU: An Assessment of the Redenomination Risk
The probability of a partial or complete break-up of the euro has risen over the last years. Such an event could create a balance sheet problem for economic agents, if the redenomination process introduced significant currency mismatches between the asset and liability sides. We propose a new assessment of this redenomination risk, by country and by main institutional sector, for two scenarios: a single country exit and a complete break-up. Our m…
On the Long‐term Effects of Fiscal Policy in the United Kingdom: The Case for a Golden Rule
This paper uses the SVAR methodology to investigate the effects of public investment on GDP and, more specifically, the effects of the introduction of a golden rule of public finance. We extend the existing literature by estimating a model for the British economy that takes into account long‐run factors such as public debt accumulation and policy interactions. We find that in such a long‐run framework, public investment has a significant and perm…
Politique budgétaire discrétionnaire en France: Les effets à court et à long terme
Distinguer la part discrétionnaire d’une politique budgétaire n’est pas chose aisée. À partir d’un modèle vectoriel autorégressif et d’une procédure originale d’identification de la part discrétionnaire des dépenses publiques et des recettes fiscales, Blanchard et Perotti [2002, qje ] ont étudié avec beaucoup de rigueur les effets d’une politique budgétaire discrétionnaire sur le pib américain. En adoptant un modèle de plus long terme, dont les f…
Wage Flexibility and Unemployment: The Keynesian Perspective Revisited
Keynes' main concern in the General Theory is about the capacity of an economy to return to full employment equilibrium when subject to a (negative) demand shock. He maintains that money wages cuts may not help reabsorb unemployment, as they do not necessarily imply a fall in real wages. On the contrary, wage rigidity may be necessary for avoiding that a cumulative process propels the economy far away the full employment equilibrium. Co‐ordinatio…
Wage Flexibility and Unemployment: The Keynesian Perspective Revisited
Keynes' main concern in the General Theory is about the capacity of an economy to return to full employment equilibrium when subject to a (negative) demand shock. He maintains that money wages cuts may not help reabsorb unemployment, as they do not necessarily imply a fall in real wages. On the contrary, wage rigidity may be necessary for avoiding that a cumulative process propels the economy far away the full employment equilibrium. Co‐ordinatio…
Technological Shocks and the Conduct of Monetary Policy
This paper analyses the impact of alternative monetary policies on the performances of an economy facing technological changes. It shows that the restructuring of productive capacity necessary to embed the new technologies usually implies initial drops in employment and productivity, that are reabsorbed only if the transition is successful. Furthermore, it shows that the process disrupts the financial structure of firms (the coordination over tim…
Politique budgétaire discrétionnaire en France: Les effets à court et à long terme
Distinguer la part discrétionnaire d’une politique budgétaire n’est pas chose aisée. À partir d’un modèle vectoriel autorégressif et d’une procédure originale d’identification de la part discrétionnaire des dépenses publiques et des recettes fiscales, Blanchard et Perotti [2002, qje ] ont étudié avec beaucoup de rigueur les effets d’une politique budgétaire discrétionnaire sur le pib américain. En adoptant un modèle de plus long terme, dont les f…
Croissance par les exportations, fragilité financière et gradualisme: Quels défis pour la Chine
L’article commence par une discussion des caractéristiques de l’impressionnante performance macroéconomique de la Chine depuis que la réforme a été mise en place, en les rapportant au choix d’une stratégie de croissance fondée sur l’exportation. Nous soutenons qu’une telle stratégie provoque un changement structurel de l’économie dont l’analyse ne peut pas être limitée à la comparaison entre l’équilibre final et l’équilibre initial. Nous proposon…
On the Long‐term Effects of Fiscal Policy in the United Kingdom: The Case for a Golden Rule
This paper uses the SVAR methodology to investigate the effects of public investment on GDP and, more specifically, the effects of the introduction of a golden rule of public finance. We extend the existing literature by estimating a model for the British economy that takes into account long‐run factors such as public debt accumulation and policy interactions. We find that in such a long‐run framework, public investment has a significant and perm…
Reflections on Azawad Crisis and Malian Democracy: The Statehood, its Deficiencies and Inclusion Failure
The 1992 decentralization reform in Mali failed to address the deficiencies embedded within the state. The resurgence of the Azawad crisis and the coup d'état of March 2012 have made these limits striking. After a brief account of the causes behind the century-long decay of Tuareg people, I will show that the 2013 elections may only represent an ephemeral solution unless strong policies of institution strengthening are deployed and the northern e…
Le plan Juncker peut-il nous sortir de l’ornière
Dans cet article nous effectuons un exercice quantitatif simple permettant d’évaluer l’impact du plan Juncker au sein de la zone euro et sa capacité à faire sortir les économies européennes de la situation de trappe à liquidités dans laquelle elles sont à présent. Nous estimons un modèle d’équilibre général intertemporel et stochastique (DSGE) de l’économie à partir de données agrégées sur la zone euro, dans lequel nous introduisons l’existence d…
The ECB: A reluctant leading character of the EMU play
The Lessons of the Crisis for EU Policy Making
L’article examine la vision dominante de la crise de l’UEM, souvent attribuée à Berlin, et exprimant un consensus macroéconomique qui émergea dans les années 1990. Ce consensus se fonde sur le refus des politiques discrétionnaires, particulièrement en matière fiscale, laissant au jeu du marché le soin de répondre aux choses macroéconomiques. Ce consensus constitua non seulement la réponse à la crise mais il fut à la base de la fondation de certai…
Evolutions and Contradictions in Mainstream Macroeconomics: The Case of Olivier Blanchard
This article traces the complex intellectual path of Olivier Blanchard, a personification of the controversial evolution of macroeconomic research over the last three decades. After contributing to consolidation of the core of mainstream macroeconomics, Blanchard recently suggested ‘rethinking’ some of its key aspects to take stock of the lessons of the 2008 Great Recession, which he witnessed as the International Monetary Fund’s Chief Economist.…
European economic, fiscal, and social policy at the crossroads
Balance sheets after the EMU: An Assessment of the Redenomination Risk
The probability of a partial or complete break-up of the euro has risen over the last years. Such an event could create a balance sheet problem for economic agents, if the redenomination process introduced significant currency mismatches between the asset and liability sides. We propose a new assessment of this redenomination risk, by country and by main institutional sector, for two scenarios: a single country exit and a complete break-up. Our m…
Europe After Covid-19: A New Role for German Leadership?
The German change of attitude concerning fiscal policy and the mutualisation of efforts to fight the pandemic is driven by self-interest, and as such might be structural.
Financing investment in times of high public debt: 2023 European public investment outlook
"The fourth book in the 'European Public Investment Outlook' series focuses on the urgent issue of how to finance needed investment in critical tangible and intangible infrastructure given high levels of public debt, a thorny problem facing many governments across Europe. Drawing on expertise from academics, researchers at public policy institutes and international governance bodies, the contributors analyse the current situation and prospects an…
Stabilising market expectations through a market tool: A proposal for an enhanced TPI
This paper puts forward a proposal to complete the ECB Transmission Protection Instrument (TPI) with the aim of making it more effective in anchoring the yields of European sovereign debts to Member States’ fundamentals. We use a model in which yields fluctuate within bands, which we specify following two alternative approaches: stochastic and deterministic. The resulting fluctuation's interval represents the range of yields that can be seen as j…
Europe and the race to structural transformation: A narrow path ahead
Since the Global Financial Crisis, the European Union (EU) has gone from crisis to crisis. The chronic growth and productivity problems have been compounded by the poor management of the Eurozone crisis, by the no-longer postponable green and digital transitions, and by the changing geopolitical environment, with the end of the old multilateral order. The European institutions still embed the principles of an old consensus based on market efficie…
Political science (13 works) · Economics (12 works) · Fiscal Policies and Political Economy (7 works) · European union (6 works) · European Monetary and Fiscal Policies (5 works) · Humanities (5 works) · Law (5 works) · Law (5 works) · Macroeconomics (5 works) · Monetary Policy and Economic Impact (5 works)