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Thomas Spoorenberg

Biographic Data

ID271124
NAMEThomas Spoorenberg
GIVEN NAMESThomas
FAMILY NAMESpoorenberg
SIGNATURESPOORENBERG T
AFFILIATIONSUnited Nations Population Fund
ORCID0000-0001-8608-1398
VERIFIEDYes
TOTAL WORKS37
TOTAL CITATIONS105
AUTHOR COUNT37
EDITOR COUNT0
FIRST PUBLICATION YEAR2006
LATEST PUBLICATION YEAR2026
H-INDEX6
  • The ratio of births observed to births needed: An indicator to assess demographic sustainability

    Open Access•Thomas Spoorenberg, Vegard Skirbekk•ARTICLE•Demographic Research•2026

    BACKGROUNDA stationary population may offer advantages for societal, economic, and ecological sustainability.It requires that the number of births aligns with expected deaths under given mortality patterns.However, reproductive rates such as the TFR are not designed to assess whether the number of births observed is sufficient to replace expected deaths, necessitating direct assessment of birth-death balance for population sustainability. OBJECTI…

  • Global trends in the compression of childbearing spans, 1950–2025: A new approach to the age distribution of fertility

    Open Access•Thomas Spoorenberg•ARTICLE•Journal of Population Research•2026

  • A Concentration of Reproduction to Later Ages? A Worldwide Assessment of Trends in Fertility Timing

    Open Access•Thomas Spoorenberg, Vegard Skirbekk•ARTICLE•Population and Development Review•2026•References: 17

    This study documents the concentration of childbearing to later reproductive ages, analyzing global patterns of fertility postponement from 1950 to 2040. We study late fertility (ages 30+) and very late fertility (ages 35+) trends at the global, subregional, and national levels using data for all countries and areas of the world since 1950 and historical data for eleven countries dating to 1850. The analysis reveals a significant shift toward lat…

  • Bringing mortality back into our understanding of fertility change: Revisiting the onset of fertility transitions using net reproduction measures

    Open Access•Vegard Skirbekk, Thomas Spoorenberg•ARTICLE•Journal of Population Research•2025•References: 2

    This paper argues for the reintegration of mortality into studies of fertility transition by using net reproduction measures rather than solely focusing on total fertility rates ( TFR ). Accounting for mortality through metrics like the 2-Sex Net Reproductive Rate ( 2SNRR ) would change our understanding of fertility transitions globally. Using global data for 236 countries (1950–2023), the analysis shows that the 2SNRR -based fertility transitio…

  • The Global Adolescent Fertility Decline is Counteracted by Increasing Teen Births in Sub‐Saharan Africa

    Open Access•Thomas Spoorenberg, Ellen Øen Carlsen et al.•ARTICLE•Studies in Family Planning•2024•References: 28

    There is a lack of understanding of the persistence of elevated teen fertility rates in certain regions and countries, in contrast to the significant decline observed in other regions globally. This report considers fertility trends among 15‐ to 19‐year olds in the period 1950–2020 and explores potential driving factors behind the significant shifts that occurred over this period. The countries where teen fertility remains high are those with fas…

  • The Concentration of Reproduction During the Fertility Transition in Developing Countries

    Open Access•Thomas Spoorenberg•ARTICLE•Population and Development Review•2024•References: 4

    This article revisits and updates an earlier study of the increased concentration of reproduction that has occurred or is occurring during the fertility transition in developing countries. Using 350 DHS datasets for 87 developing countries, the analysis extends the observation period by several decades, considers a larger range of completed fertility, and expands the geographic coverage by including more countries from all regions of the world. I…

  • The emergence of birth limitation as a new stage in the fertility transition in sub-Saharan Africa

    Open Access•Mathias Lerch, Thomas Spoorenberg•ARTICLE•Demographic Research•2020•Cited by: 1•References: 35

    The fertility transition started later in sub-Saharan Africa than in other regions of the world. Moreover, the average number of children per woman declined more slowly there, owing to a distinct mechanism of fertility reduction. It has been argued that th

  • Sixty years of change in Tibetan fertility: An assessment

    Thomas Spoorenberg•ARTICLE•Population Studies•2019•Cited by: 2•References: 28

    Existing knowledge of Tibetan historical population development is mostly based on 'best-guess' estimates and is heavily politicized. Using census data, I reconstruct the development of Tibetan fertility in China since the 1940s, with the objective of providing an independent assessment that can be used as benchmark for future studies and debates on Tibetan demography. Following major social and economic transformations starting in the 1950s, Tib…

  • Mortalité, fécondité et croissance démographique au Tibet avant 1950

    Open Access•Thomas Spoorenberg, Camille Richou•ARTICLE•Population•2019•Cited by: 1•References: 14

    L'évolution de la population du Tibet avant 1950 est relativement mal connue. En raison d'un manque de données, les affirmations selon lesquelles la population tibétaine aurait décliné ou augmenté restent fortement influencées par des considérations politiques. Selon deux études basées sur des données locales, les caractéristiques démographiques de villages tibétains avant les années 1950 auraient favorisé un léger accroissement de population. Ce…

  • Forty years of fertility changes in the Sahel

    Open Access•Thomas Spoorenberg•ARTICLE•Demographic Research•2019•Cited by: 4•References: 16

    Despite much discussion on the fertility changes in sub-Saharan Africa, the countries of the Sahel have received only limited attention. Their comparatively high and stable fertility levels contributed them being labeled as an exception in sub-Saharan Afri

  • Fertility compression in Niger: A study of fertility change by parity (1977-2011)

    Open Access•Thomas Spoorenberg, Hamidou Issaka Maga•ARTICLE•Demographic Research•2018•Cited by: 5•References: 14

    Very few studies have analyzed the fertility change in Niger -a country where the total fertility rate has remained high and stable over the last decades

  • After Fertility’s Nadir? Ethnic Differentials in Parity-Specific Behaviours in Kyrgyzstan

    Open Access•Thomas Spoorenberg•ARTICLE•Journal of Biosocial Science•2017

    After a swift decline in the 1990s, the countries of Central Asia have experienced significant fertility increases over the last 15 years. These fertility upturns have remained off the radar of demographers. This study examines the recent fertility increase in Kyrgyzstan, focusing on fertility development by parity and among the main ethnic groups, in order to go beyond classic fertility indicators and national averages. Using a sample from the 2…

  • Évaluation de la transition de la fécondité au Bhoutan

    Open Access•Tashi Dorjee, Thomas Spoorenberg et al.•ARTICLE•Population•2017•Cited by: 1•References: 10

    Compte tenu de la situation géographique du pays, de son isolement historique et du nombre restreint de sources de données, nous disposons de connaissances limitées sur le développement démographique du Bhoutan. L'objectif de cette note de recherche est de passer en revue et d'analyser les données retraçant les changements de niveau et de tendance de la fécondité au Bhoutan au cours des 50 dernières années, afin de poser les bases empiriques des …

  • Le début de la transition de la fécondité en Asie centrale

    Open Access•Thomas Spoorenberg•ARTICLE•Population•2017•Cited by: 4•References: 45

    Cet article étudie l'impact de l'établissement du socialisme à la fin des années 1920 sur le début de la transition de la fécondité en Asie centrale. Les niveaux et tendances de la fécondité des cinq républiques soviétiques d'Asie centrale sont reconstruits en utilisant autant de sources et de méthodes que possible. Les changements et les progrès rapides qui se sont produits à partir des années 1930 dans cette région ont été suivis par une hausse…

  • On the masculinization of population: The contribution of demographic development -- A look at sex ratios in Sweden over 250 years

    Open Access•Thomas Spoorenberg•ARTICLE•Demographic Research•2016•Cited by: 1•References: 16

    Almost everywhere, women live longer than men, but the world population includes increasingly more men than women. This fact is observed not only in populations where gender-based discrimination is practised, but also in developed countries like Sweden

  • Explaining recent fertility increase in Central Asia

    Thomas Spoorenberg•ARTICLE•Asian Population Studies•2015•Cited by: 8•References: 4

    After a swift decline during the 1990s following the collapse of the Soviet Union, period fertility rates have either been stagnating or increasing in all countries of Central Asia. In this paper, I investigate the role of data artifacts, population composition effect, economic context and shifting tempo effect in explaining fertility changes in Central Asia. The analysis is primarily based on comparison of fertility data from the vital registrat…

  • Niveaux et tendances de la fécondité en Corée du Nord

    Open Access•Thomas Spoorenberg•ARTICLE•Population•2015•Cited by: 1•References: 7

    Cette note de recherche est une contribution à la connaissance des évolutions démographiques en Corée du Nord. Elle porte sur les niveaux et tendances de la fécondité au cours des trois dernières décennies. Différentes estimations de l'indice synthétique de fécondité tirées de sources variées (recensements, enquêtes par sondage, statistiques d'état civil) et obtenues par diverses méthodes d'estimation permettent de montrer que les données démogra…

  • Reconstructing historical fertility change in Mongolia: Impressive fertility rise before continued fertility decline

    Open Access•Thomas Spoorenberg•ARTICLE•Demographic Research•2015•Cited by: 3•References: 22

    To date, historical fertility change in Mongolia has been analyzed starting from the 1960s. It is generally accepted that the adoption of pro-natalist policies resulted in very high fertility levels during the 1960s and 1970s and that their relaxation in t

  • Is Buddhism the low fertility religion of Asia

    Open Access•Vegard Skirbekk, Marcin Stonawski et al.•ARTICLE•Demographic Research•2015•Cited by: 9•References: 35

    The influence of religion on demographic behaviors has been extensively studied mainly for Abrahamic religions. Although Buddhism is the world ́s fourth largest religion and is dominant in several Asian nations experiencing very low fertility, the impact of

  • World population stabilization unlikely this century

    Open Access•Patrick Gerland, Adrian E Raftery et al.•ARTICLE•Science•2014

    The United Nations (UN) recently released population projections based on data until 2012 and a Bayesian probabilistic methodology. Analysis of these data reveals that, contrary to previous literature, the world population is unlikely to stop growing this century. There is an 80% probability that world population, now 7.2 billion people, will increase to between 9.6 billion and 12.3 billion in 2100. This uncertainty is much smaller than the range…

  • Provisional results of the 2014 census of Myanmar: The surprise that wasn't

    Thomas Spoorenberg•ARTICLE•Asian Population Studies•2014

    Notes1. According to the 2007 Fertility and Reproductive Health Survey (FRHS)—the latest available estimate for the total fertility rate (TFR), Burmese women had on average 2.03 children (Department of Population, 2009)

  • Reconciling discrepancies between registration-based and survey-based estimates of fertility in Mongolia

    Thomas Spoorenberg•ARTICLE•Population Studies•2014•Cited by: 5•References: 9

    The two main data sources for the estimation of total fertility in Mongolia give figures that differ by between one-half and one child per woman. We investigated two possible explanations for these discrepancies: (i) that data on births collected in the vital registration system are incomplete and under-estimate fertility; and (ii) that fertility is over-estimated when estimates are based on data from sample surveys. We find that the under-counti…

  • Reverse survival method of fertility estimation: An evaluation

    Open Access•Thomas Spoorenberg•ARTICLE•Demographic Research•2014•Cited by: 7•References: 7

    For the most part, demographers have relied on the ever-growing body of sample surveys collecting full birth history to derive total fertility estimates in less statistically developed countries. Yet alternative methods of fertility estimation can return v

  • Fertility Changes in Central Asia Since 1980

    Thomas Spoorenberg•ARTICLE•Asian Population Studies•2013•Cited by: 12•References: 9

    Limited studies document the fertility changes in Central Asia. Using survey and official data, this study describes the fertility changes since 1980 in Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, and Uzbekistan. I first consider the swift decline in fertility in the 1980s and 1990s through the analysis of Synthetic Parity Progression Ratios (SPPRs). SPPRs show that women still have at least one child despite economic difficulties and that the end of commun…

  • An evaluation of the recent fertility changes in Afghanistan: A parity-specific analysis

    Open Access•Thomas Spoorenberg•ARTICLE•Journal of Population Research•2013•Cited by: 5

Next
  • Fertility Changes in Central Asia Since 1980

    Thomas Spoorenberg•ARTICLE•Asian Population Studies•2013•Cited by: 12•References: 9

    Limited studies document the fertility changes in Central Asia. Using survey and official data, this study describes the fertility changes since 1980 in Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, and Uzbekistan. I first consider the swift decline in fertility in the 1980s and 1990s through the analysis of Synthetic Parity Progression Ratios (SPPRs). SPPRs show that women still have at least one child despite economic difficulties and that the end of commun…

  • Is Buddhism the low fertility religion of Asia

    Open Access•Vegard Skirbekk, Marcin Stonawski et al.•ARTICLE•Demographic Research•2015•Cited by: 9•References: 35

    The influence of religion on demographic behaviors has been extensively studied mainly for Abrahamic religions. Although Buddhism is the world ́s fourth largest religion and is dominant in several Asian nations experiencing very low fertility, the impact of

  • Explaining recent fertility increase in Central Asia

    Thomas Spoorenberg•ARTICLE•Asian Population Studies•2015•Cited by: 8•References: 4

    After a swift decline during the 1990s following the collapse of the Soviet Union, period fertility rates have either been stagnating or increasing in all countries of Central Asia. In this paper, I investigate the role of data artifacts, population composition effect, economic context and shifting tempo effect in explaining fertility changes in Central Asia. The analysis is primarily based on comparison of fertility data from the vital registrat…

  • The Impact of the Political and Economic Transition on Fertility and Family Formation in Mongolia: A synthetic parity progression ratios analysis

    Thomas Spoorenberg•ARTICLE•Asian Population Studies•2009•Cited by: 8•References: 10

    Mongolia has never been a member of the USSR, but the collapse of the Soviet Union deeply affected this country. While a growing body of literature documents the consequences of this collapse on fertility and family formation behaviour for the former socialist countries in Central and Eastern Europe, the Baltic countries, Russia and Ukraine, and more recently, countries in Central Asia, Mongolia received only limited attention. This paper aims to…

  • Quality of age reporting: Extension and application of the modified Whipple's index

    Open Access•Thomas Spoorenberg•ARTICLE•Population (English Edition•2007•Cited by: 8

    À partir des modifications apportées à l’indice de Whipple originel, cette note de recherche propose une mesure générale de la qualité des déclarations par âge, complétant ainsi le développement antérieur opéré par Noumbissi (1992) par une mesure synthétique : l’indice de Whipple modifié total (Wtot ). Afin de tester sa pertinence et sa validité, le nouvel indice proposé ici est appliqué aux déclarations par âge et sexe en l’Inde, au Maroc et en …

  • Reverse survival method of fertility estimation: An evaluation

    Open Access•Thomas Spoorenberg•ARTICLE•Demographic Research•2014•Cited by: 7•References: 7

    For the most part, demographers have relied on the ever-growing body of sample surveys collecting full birth history to derive total fertility estimates in less statistically developed countries. Yet alternative methods of fertility estimation can return v

  • Fertility Transition in India between 1977 and 2004: Analysis using Parity Progression Ratios

    Open Access•Thomas Spoorenberg•ARTICLE•Population (English Edition•2010•Cited by: 6•References: 1

    Cette note de recherche présente un point de vue original sur la transition de la fécondité en Inde par l’analyse des probabilités d’agrandissement du moment. L’évolution de la fécondité par rang de naissance est étudiée de 1977 à 2004 à partir d’environ 300 000 histoires génésiques recueillies lors de trois enquêtes représentatives au niveau national (National Family Health Survey, NFHS) réalisées en 1992-1993, 1998-1999 et 2005-2006. La baisse …

  • Fertility compression in Niger: A study of fertility change by parity (1977-2011)

    Open Access•Thomas Spoorenberg, Hamidou Issaka Maga•ARTICLE•Demographic Research•2018•Cited by: 5•References: 14

    Very few studies have analyzed the fertility change in Niger -a country where the total fertility rate has remained high and stable over the last decades

  • Reconciling discrepancies between registration-based and survey-based estimates of fertility in Mongolia

    Thomas Spoorenberg•ARTICLE•Population Studies•2014•Cited by: 5•References: 9

    The two main data sources for the estimation of total fertility in Mongolia give figures that differ by between one-half and one child per woman. We investigated two possible explanations for these discrepancies: (i) that data on births collected in the vital registration system are incomplete and under-estimate fertility; and (ii) that fertility is over-estimated when estimates are based on data from sample surveys. We find that the under-counti…

  • An evaluation of the recent fertility changes in Afghanistan: A parity-specific analysis

    Open Access•Thomas Spoorenberg•ARTICLE•Journal of Population Research•2013•Cited by: 5

  • Forty years of fertility changes in the Sahel

    Open Access•Thomas Spoorenberg•ARTICLE•Demographic Research•2019•Cited by: 4•References: 16

    Despite much discussion on the fertility changes in sub-Saharan Africa, the countries of the Sahel have received only limited attention. Their comparatively high and stable fertility levels contributed them being labeled as an exception in sub-Saharan Afri

  • Le début de la transition de la fécondité en Asie centrale

    Open Access•Thomas Spoorenberg•ARTICLE•Population•2017•Cited by: 4•References: 45

    Cet article étudie l'impact de l'établissement du socialisme à la fin des années 1920 sur le début de la transition de la fécondité en Asie centrale. Les niveaux et tendances de la fécondité des cinq républiques soviétiques d'Asie centrale sont reconstruits en utilisant autant de sources et de méthodes que possible. Les changements et les progrès rapides qui se sont produits à partir des années 1930 dans cette région ont été suivis par une hausse…

  • Reconstructing historical fertility change in Mongolia: Impressive fertility rise before continued fertility decline

    Open Access•Thomas Spoorenberg•ARTICLE•Demographic Research•2015•Cited by: 3•References: 22

    To date, historical fertility change in Mongolia has been analyzed starting from the 1960s. It is generally accepted that the adoption of pro-natalist policies resulted in very high fertility levels during the 1960s and 1970s and that their relaxation in t

  • Demographic Changes in Myanmar since 1983: An Examination of Official Data

    Open Access•Thomas Spoorenberg•ARTICLE•Population and Development Review•2013•Cited by: 3•References: 7

    According to official estimate, the total population of Myanmar reached 59.8 million in 2010. Yet, serious doubt exists on the reliability of these data. From the body of empirical evidence, best estimates of mortality and fertility are derived and serve to reconstruct prospectively the population of the country from 1983 to 2010. Despite the uncertainty regarding the levels and trends in international migration, the results are unequivocal: give…

  • Demographic Changes in North Korea: 1993-2008

    Open Access•Thomas Spoorenberg, Daniel Schwekendiek•ARTICLE•Population and Development Review•2012•Cited by: 3•References: 18

    Given the scarcity of population data, few demographic analyses have been conducted on population trends in North Korea. Using the 1993 and 2008 population and housing census data, we prospectively reconstruct population change in the country during the 15 intercensal years. Reconstruction of the population trends of North Korea enables us to assess the consistency of the available demographic evidence and to assess the demographic impact of the …

  • Sixty years of change in Tibetan fertility: An assessment

    Thomas Spoorenberg•ARTICLE•Population Studies•2019•Cited by: 2•References: 28

    Existing knowledge of Tibetan historical population development is mostly based on 'best-guess' estimates and is heavily politicized. Using census data, I reconstruct the development of Tibetan fertility in China since the 1940s, with the objective of providing an independent assessment that can be used as benchmark for future studies and debates on Tibetan demography. Following major social and economic transformations starting in the 1950s, Tib…

  • Old age mortality in Eastern and South-Eastern Asia

    Open Access•Danan Gu, Patrick Gerland et al.•ARTICLE•Demographic Research•2013•Cited by: 2•References: 48

    Eastern and South-Eastern Asian countries have witnessed a marked decline in old age mortality in recent decades. Yet no studies have investigated the trends and patterns in old age mortality and cause-of-death in the region

  • Future low fertility prospects in Mongolia? An evaluation of the factors that support having a child

    Open Access•Thomas Spoorenberg, Enkhtsetseg Byambaa et al.•ARTICLE•Journal of Population Research•2009•Cited by: 2•References: 4

  • The Demographic Window, Development, and Population Policy Implications in Mongolia

    Thomas Spoorenberg•ARTICLE•Asian Population Studies•2008•Cited by: 2•References: 7

    This article presents the demographic window in Mongolia and discusses the implications of different population policies for demographic development. Based on four different fertility scenarios, the development of future working age population (WAP), school-age population (SAP), and elderly population are examined, focusing on the economic and social challenges for Mongolia. It is argued that population policy could play an important role if poli…

  • The emergence of birth limitation as a new stage in the fertility transition in sub-Saharan Africa

    Open Access•Mathias Lerch, Thomas Spoorenberg•ARTICLE•Demographic Research•2020•Cited by: 1•References: 35

    The fertility transition started later in sub-Saharan Africa than in other regions of the world. Moreover, the average number of children per woman declined more slowly there, owing to a distinct mechanism of fertility reduction. It has been argued that th

  • Mortalité, fécondité et croissance démographique au Tibet avant 1950

    Open Access•Thomas Spoorenberg, Camille Richou•ARTICLE•Population•2019•Cited by: 1•References: 14

    L'évolution de la population du Tibet avant 1950 est relativement mal connue. En raison d'un manque de données, les affirmations selon lesquelles la population tibétaine aurait décliné ou augmenté restent fortement influencées par des considérations politiques. Selon deux études basées sur des données locales, les caractéristiques démographiques de villages tibétains avant les années 1950 auraient favorisé un léger accroissement de population. Ce…

  • Évaluation de la transition de la fécondité au Bhoutan

    Open Access•Tashi Dorjee, Thomas Spoorenberg et al.•ARTICLE•Population•2017•Cited by: 1•References: 10

    Compte tenu de la situation géographique du pays, de son isolement historique et du nombre restreint de sources de données, nous disposons de connaissances limitées sur le développement démographique du Bhoutan. L'objectif de cette note de recherche est de passer en revue et d'analyser les données retraçant les changements de niveau et de tendance de la fécondité au Bhoutan au cours des 50 dernières années, afin de poser les bases empiriques des …

  • On the masculinization of population: The contribution of demographic development -- A look at sex ratios in Sweden over 250 years

    Open Access•Thomas Spoorenberg•ARTICLE•Demographic Research•2016•Cited by: 1•References: 16

    Almost everywhere, women live longer than men, but the world population includes increasingly more men than women. This fact is observed not only in populations where gender-based discrimination is practised, but also in developed countries like Sweden

  • Niveaux et tendances de la fécondité en Corée du Nord

    Open Access•Thomas Spoorenberg•ARTICLE•Population•2015•Cited by: 1•References: 7

    Cette note de recherche est une contribution à la connaissance des évolutions démographiques en Corée du Nord. Elle porte sur les niveaux et tendances de la fécondité au cours des trois dernières décennies. Différentes estimations de l'indice synthétique de fécondité tirées de sources variées (recensements, enquêtes par sondage, statistiques d'état civil) et obtenues par diverses méthodes d'estimation permettent de montrer que les données démogra…

  • La transition de la fécondité en Inde entre 1977 et 2004: Analyse des probabilités d'agrandissement

    Open Access•Thomas Spoorenberg, Eric Vilquin•ARTICLE•Population•2010•Cited by: 1•References: 20

    Cette note de recherche présente un point de vue original sur la transition de la fécondité en Inde par l'analyse des probabilités d'agrandissement du moment. L'évolution de la fécondité par rang de naissance est étudiée de 1977 à 2004 à partir d'environ 300 000 histoires génésiques recueillies lors de trois enquêtes représentatives au niveau national (National Family Health Survey, NFHS) réalisées en 1992-1993, 1998-1999 et 2005-2006. La baisse …

  • Déstandardisation, différenciation régionale et changements générationnels. Départ du foyer parental et modes de vie en Suisse au XXe siècle

    Open Access•Reto Schumacher, Thomas Spoorenberg et al.•ARTICLE•European Journal of Population /…•2006•References: 16

  • Quality of age reporting: Extension and application of the modified Whipple's index

    Open Access•Thomas Spoorenberg•ARTICLE•Population (English Edition•2007•Cited by: 8

    À partir des modifications apportées à l’indice de Whipple originel, cette note de recherche propose une mesure générale de la qualité des déclarations par âge, complétant ainsi le développement antérieur opéré par Noumbissi (1992) par une mesure synthétique : l’indice de Whipple modifié total (Wtot ). Afin de tester sa pertinence et sa validité, le nouvel indice proposé ici est appliqué aux déclarations par âge et sexe en l’Inde, au Maroc et en …

  • The Demographic Window, Development, and Population Policy Implications in Mongolia

    Thomas Spoorenberg•ARTICLE•Asian Population Studies•2008•Cited by: 2•References: 7

    This article presents the demographic window in Mongolia and discusses the implications of different population policies for demographic development. Based on four different fertility scenarios, the development of future working age population (WAP), school-age population (SAP), and elderly population are examined, focusing on the economic and social challenges for Mongolia. It is argued that population policy could play an important role if poli…

  • What can we learn from indirect estimations on mortality in Mongolia, 1969-1989

    Open Access•Thomas Spoorenberg•ARTICLE•Demographic Research•2008•Cited by: 1•References: 10

    The closure of Mongolia to international community during the 20th century resulted in a dearth of available data and analytic demographic studies. In the absence of mortality analysis during the socialist period, this paper proposes the use of indirec

  • Changes in the Proximate Determinants of Fertility Decline in Post-Socialist Mongolia

    Open Access•Thomas Spoorenberg•ARTICLE•Journal of Biosocial Science•2009

    Mongolian fertility decline has received only limited analysis in the demographic literature. Using the 2003 Reproductive Health Survey of Mongolia the classical proximate determinants of fertility framework proposed by Bongaarts is applied here in order to analyse which factors shape period fertility. The results indicate that the fertility-inhibiting effect of contraception contributed to reduce period fertility by 54.2% from its theoretical ma…

  • The Impact of the Political and Economic Transition on Fertility and Family Formation in Mongolia: A synthetic parity progression ratios analysis

    Thomas Spoorenberg•ARTICLE•Asian Population Studies•2009•Cited by: 8•References: 10

    Mongolia has never been a member of the USSR, but the collapse of the Soviet Union deeply affected this country. While a growing body of literature documents the consequences of this collapse on fertility and family formation behaviour for the former socialist countries in Central and Eastern Europe, the Baltic countries, Russia and Ukraine, and more recently, countries in Central Asia, Mongolia received only limited attention. This paper aims to…

  • Future low fertility prospects in Mongolia? An evaluation of the factors that support having a child

    Open Access•Thomas Spoorenberg, Enkhtsetseg Byambaa et al.•ARTICLE•Journal of Population Research•2009•Cited by: 2•References: 4

  • Fertility Transition in India between 1977 and 2004: Analysis using Parity Progression Ratios

    Open Access•Thomas Spoorenberg•ARTICLE•Population (English Edition•2010•Cited by: 6•References: 1

    Cette note de recherche présente un point de vue original sur la transition de la fécondité en Inde par l’analyse des probabilités d’agrandissement du moment. L’évolution de la fécondité par rang de naissance est étudiée de 1977 à 2004 à partir d’environ 300 000 histoires génésiques recueillies lors de trois enquêtes représentatives au niveau national (National Family Health Survey, NFHS) réalisées en 1992-1993, 1998-1999 et 2005-2006. La baisse …

  • La transition de la fécondité en Inde entre 1977 et 2004: Analyse des probabilités d'agrandissement

    Open Access•Thomas Spoorenberg, Eric Vilquin•ARTICLE•Population•2010•Cited by: 1•References: 20

    Cette note de recherche présente un point de vue original sur la transition de la fécondité en Inde par l'analyse des probabilités d'agrandissement du moment. L'évolution de la fécondité par rang de naissance est étudiée de 1977 à 2004 à partir d'environ 300 000 histoires génésiques recueillies lors de trois enquêtes représentatives au niveau national (National Family Health Survey, NFHS) réalisées en 1992-1993, 1998-1999 et 2005-2006. La baisse …

  • Demographic Changes in North Korea: 1993-2008

    Open Access•Thomas Spoorenberg, Daniel Schwekendiek•ARTICLE•Population and Development Review•2012•Cited by: 3•References: 18

    Given the scarcity of population data, few demographic analyses have been conducted on population trends in North Korea. Using the 1993 and 2008 population and housing census data, we prospectively reconstruct population change in the country during the 15 intercensal years. Reconstruction of the population trends of North Korea enables us to assess the consistency of the available demographic evidence and to assess the demographic impact of the …

  • Fertility Changes in Central Asia Since 1980

    Thomas Spoorenberg•ARTICLE•Asian Population Studies•2013•Cited by: 12•References: 9

    Limited studies document the fertility changes in Central Asia. Using survey and official data, this study describes the fertility changes since 1980 in Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, and Uzbekistan. I first consider the swift decline in fertility in the 1980s and 1990s through the analysis of Synthetic Parity Progression Ratios (SPPRs). SPPRs show that women still have at least one child despite economic difficulties and that the end of commun…

  • An evaluation of the recent fertility changes in Afghanistan: A parity-specific analysis

    Open Access•Thomas Spoorenberg•ARTICLE•Journal of Population Research•2013•Cited by: 5

  • Demographic Changes in Myanmar since 1983: An Examination of Official Data

    Open Access•Thomas Spoorenberg•ARTICLE•Population and Development Review•2013•Cited by: 3•References: 7

    According to official estimate, the total population of Myanmar reached 59.8 million in 2010. Yet, serious doubt exists on the reliability of these data. From the body of empirical evidence, best estimates of mortality and fertility are derived and serve to reconstruct prospectively the population of the country from 1983 to 2010. Despite the uncertainty regarding the levels and trends in international migration, the results are unequivocal: give…

  • Old age mortality in Eastern and South-Eastern Asia

    Open Access•Danan Gu, Patrick Gerland et al.•ARTICLE•Demographic Research•2013•Cited by: 2•References: 48

    Eastern and South-Eastern Asian countries have witnessed a marked decline in old age mortality in recent decades. Yet no studies have investigated the trends and patterns in old age mortality and cause-of-death in the region

  • World population stabilization unlikely this century

    Open Access•Patrick Gerland, Adrian E Raftery et al.•ARTICLE•Science•2014

    The United Nations (UN) recently released population projections based on data until 2012 and a Bayesian probabilistic methodology. Analysis of these data reveals that, contrary to previous literature, the world population is unlikely to stop growing this century. There is an 80% probability that world population, now 7.2 billion people, will increase to between 9.6 billion and 12.3 billion in 2100. This uncertainty is much smaller than the range…

  • Provisional results of the 2014 census of Myanmar: The surprise that wasn't

    Thomas Spoorenberg•ARTICLE•Asian Population Studies•2014

    Notes1. According to the 2007 Fertility and Reproductive Health Survey (FRHS)—the latest available estimate for the total fertility rate (TFR), Burmese women had on average 2.03 children (Department of Population, 2009)

  • Reconciling discrepancies between registration-based and survey-based estimates of fertility in Mongolia

    Thomas Spoorenberg•ARTICLE•Population Studies•2014•Cited by: 5•References: 9

    The two main data sources for the estimation of total fertility in Mongolia give figures that differ by between one-half and one child per woman. We investigated two possible explanations for these discrepancies: (i) that data on births collected in the vital registration system are incomplete and under-estimate fertility; and (ii) that fertility is over-estimated when estimates are based on data from sample surveys. We find that the under-counti…

  • Reverse survival method of fertility estimation: An evaluation

    Open Access•Thomas Spoorenberg•ARTICLE•Demographic Research•2014•Cited by: 7•References: 7

    For the most part, demographers have relied on the ever-growing body of sample surveys collecting full birth history to derive total fertility estimates in less statistically developed countries. Yet alternative methods of fertility estimation can return v

  • Explaining recent fertility increase in Central Asia

    Thomas Spoorenberg•ARTICLE•Asian Population Studies•2015•Cited by: 8•References: 4

    After a swift decline during the 1990s following the collapse of the Soviet Union, period fertility rates have either been stagnating or increasing in all countries of Central Asia. In this paper, I investigate the role of data artifacts, population composition effect, economic context and shifting tempo effect in explaining fertility changes in Central Asia. The analysis is primarily based on comparison of fertility data from the vital registrat…

  • Niveaux et tendances de la fécondité en Corée du Nord

    Open Access•Thomas Spoorenberg•ARTICLE•Population•2015•Cited by: 1•References: 7

    Cette note de recherche est une contribution à la connaissance des évolutions démographiques en Corée du Nord. Elle porte sur les niveaux et tendances de la fécondité au cours des trois dernières décennies. Différentes estimations de l'indice synthétique de fécondité tirées de sources variées (recensements, enquêtes par sondage, statistiques d'état civil) et obtenues par diverses méthodes d'estimation permettent de montrer que les données démogra…

  • Reconstructing historical fertility change in Mongolia: Impressive fertility rise before continued fertility decline

    Open Access•Thomas Spoorenberg•ARTICLE•Demographic Research•2015•Cited by: 3•References: 22

    To date, historical fertility change in Mongolia has been analyzed starting from the 1960s. It is generally accepted that the adoption of pro-natalist policies resulted in very high fertility levels during the 1960s and 1970s and that their relaxation in t

  • Is Buddhism the low fertility religion of Asia

    Open Access•Vegard Skirbekk, Marcin Stonawski et al.•ARTICLE•Demographic Research•2015•Cited by: 9•References: 35

    The influence of religion on demographic behaviors has been extensively studied mainly for Abrahamic religions. Although Buddhism is the world ́s fourth largest religion and is dominant in several Asian nations experiencing very low fertility, the impact of

  • On the masculinization of population: The contribution of demographic development -- A look at sex ratios in Sweden over 250 years

    Open Access•Thomas Spoorenberg•ARTICLE•Demographic Research•2016•Cited by: 1•References: 16

    Almost everywhere, women live longer than men, but the world population includes increasingly more men than women. This fact is observed not only in populations where gender-based discrimination is practised, but also in developed countries like Sweden

  • After Fertility’s Nadir? Ethnic Differentials in Parity-Specific Behaviours in Kyrgyzstan

    Open Access•Thomas Spoorenberg•ARTICLE•Journal of Biosocial Science•2017

    After a swift decline in the 1990s, the countries of Central Asia have experienced significant fertility increases over the last 15 years. These fertility upturns have remained off the radar of demographers. This study examines the recent fertility increase in Kyrgyzstan, focusing on fertility development by parity and among the main ethnic groups, in order to go beyond classic fertility indicators and national averages. Using a sample from the 2…

  • Évaluation de la transition de la fécondité au Bhoutan

    Open Access•Tashi Dorjee, Thomas Spoorenberg et al.•ARTICLE•Population•2017•Cited by: 1•References: 10

    Compte tenu de la situation géographique du pays, de son isolement historique et du nombre restreint de sources de données, nous disposons de connaissances limitées sur le développement démographique du Bhoutan. L'objectif de cette note de recherche est de passer en revue et d'analyser les données retraçant les changements de niveau et de tendance de la fécondité au Bhoutan au cours des 50 dernières années, afin de poser les bases empiriques des …

Demography (28 works) · Population (28 works) · Sociology (27 works) · Fertility (26 works) · Geography (25 works) · Demographic Trends and Gender Preferences (22 works) · Economics (21 works) · Total fertility rate (18 works) · Family Dynamics and Relationships (15 works) · Family planning (14 works)

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