John R Petrocik
Biographic Data
| ID | 274390 |
|---|---|
| NAME | John R Petrocik |
| GIVEN NAMES | John R |
| FAMILY NAME | Petrocik |
| SIGNATURE | PETROCIK J R |
| AFFILIATIONS | University of California, Los Angeles |
| VERIFIED | No |
| TOTAL WORKS | 31 |
| TOTAL CITATIONS | 2200 |
| AUTHOR COUNT | 31 |
| EDITOR COUNT | 0 |
| FIRST PUBLICATION YEAR | 1975 |
| LATEST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2020 |
| H-INDEX | 13 |
The Changing Politics of American Men, Updated
This analysis updates through 2016 the gender gap analysis in voting and party identification published by Kaufmann and Petrocik 20 years ago. Some, e.g., Box-Steffensmeier, J. M., S. DeBoef, and T. M. Lin. 2004. “The Dynamics of the Partisan Gender Gap.” American Political Science Review 98 (3): 515–28 suggested that the original findings would diminish in magnitude, but the updated data show that the gender gap continues to reflect male-only ch…
Religion, Religiosity, and the Moral Divide in Canadian Politics
Social group conflict along regional, ethnic, linguistic, and religious cleavages is deeply embedded in the Canadian historical experience. Contemporary analyses, however, have deprecated the role of religion and religiosity in shaping Canadians' political attitudes. This analysis demonstrates that religion and religiosity are significant correlates of Canadian attitudes on moral issues, paralleling the pattern observed in the United States. It d…
The Politics Missed by Political Science
This essay offers some experience-based observations about electoral phenomena that academic political science misses because of a focus on conceptual and theoretical debates that often take pride of place over the empirical phenomena that gave rise to the ideas and concepts that we highly value. We suggest that academic political science is increasingly committed to models and methods that serve a theory or an idea more than they account for obs…
Incumbency and Short-Term Influences on Voters
Incumbency and Short-Term Influences on Voters
Using NES surveys from 1980 through 2000, this article examines the incumbency advantage with a series of survey reports of the vote, an approach that departs from the convention of estimating the incumbent advantage with aggregate election returns. Previous work conceptualizes the incumbency advantage as a small and stable vote bonus of six to eight percentage points since about 1970, based on aggregate electoral returns. This study provides a d…
The Variable Incumbency Advantage: New Voters, Redistricting, and the Personal Vote
In this article we explore the personal vote costs of redistricting. After redistricting, incumbents often face significant numbers of new voters—voters that were previously in a different incumbent's district. Existing conceptualizations of the incumbency advantage suggest that the cost to incumbents of having new voters should be relatively small and predictable. We propose a different formulation: a variable incumbency advantage. We argue that…
Issue Ownership and Presidential Campaigning, 1952-2000
JOHN R. PETROCIK is a professor and chair of the Political Science Department at the University of Missouri-Columbia. He works in the area of elections, public opinion, and political parties. This paper is adapted from a book-length project on issue-ownership in American national politics. WILLIAM L. BENOIT is a professor of communication at the University of Missouri-Columbia. He has written five books on presidential campaigns, including Campai…
Race, Redistricting, and Representation: The Unintended Consequences of Black Majority Districts . David T. Canon
Pursuing Majorities: Congressional Campaign Committees in American Politics
The Changing Politics of American Men: Understanding the Sources of the Gender Gap
We analyze male-female differences in partisanship and presidential voting between 1952 and 1996 to show that the gender gap is a product of the changing partisanship of men. We then focus on the 1992 and 1996 elections to explore two hypotheses about its sources. The Attitude Hypothesis proposes that the gender gap results from underlying gender differences in policy attitudes, and the Salience Hypothesis suggests that the gap results from the d…
The Partisan Consequences of Majority-Minority Redistricting in the South, 1992 and 1994
This paper demonstrates that the creation of majority-minority districts was no more than an indirect cause of Democratic losses in 1992 and 1994, and the second-order effect of losing familiar voters was more important than the first-order effect of a reduced black constituency. Further, it demonstrates that a pro-GOP surge, independent of redistricting, was the critical factor without which neither new voters nor the reduced black population wo…
Issue Ownership in Presidential Elections, with a 1980 Case Study
Theory: This paper develops and applies an issue ownership theory of voting that emphasizes the role of campaigns in setting the criteria for voters to choose between candidates. It expects candidates to emphasize issues on which they are advantaged and their opponents are less well regarded. It explains the structural factors and party system variables which lead candidates to differentially emphasize issues. It invokes theories of priming and f…
Electioneering: A Comparative Study of Continuity and Change, by David Butler, Austin Ranney
The United States, Jody Foster and Christopher Muste Latin America, Alan Angell et al Britain, Dennis Kavanagh Australia and New Zealand, Colin Hughes India, James Manor France, Jean Charlot and Monica Charlot Germany, Max Kaase Italy, Stephen Gundle Scandinavia, Peter Esaiasson Japan, Gerald L. Curtis stability and change in American electoral politics, Larry M. Bartels
An Algorithm for Estimating Turnout as a Guide to Predicting Elections
Journal Article AN ALGORITHM FOR ESTIMATING TURNOUT AS A GUIDE TO PREDICTING ELECTIONS Get access JOHN R. PETROCIK JOHN R. PETROCIK University of CaliforniaLos Angeles Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Scholar Public Opinion Quarterly, Volume 55, Issue 4, WINTER 1991, Pages 643–647, https://doi.org/10.1086/269286 Published: 01 January 1991
An Expected Party Vote: New Data for an Old Concept
At its introduction the normal vote was a powerful concept and a useful tool. Within the last decade it has become a suspect idea and a flawed measurement. This paper uses a new and extensive data set to reoperationalize the concept. The specification by which it is derived avoids most of the problems inherent in the initial formulation. The paper illustrates the useful analytic insights provided by the concept, and it documents its utility as an…
The Puzzle of Indian Politics: Social Cleavages and the Indian Party System
The social cleavage theory of parly systems has provided a major framework for the study of Western party systems. It has been quite unimportant in studying other party systems, especially those of developing countries, where comparative development, and not mass electoral politics, has been the focus of study. This article reports the results of an attempt to bridge these traditions by analysing popular support for the Congress Party of India in…
Stability and Change in American Politics: The Coming of Age of the Generation of the 1960s, by Michael X. Delli Carpini The Life of the Parties: Activists in Presidential Politics, by Ronald B. Rapop…
Realignment: New Party Coalitions and the Nationalization of the South
Among academic and non-academic observers the Reagan election provoked speculation about whether the party system was finally embarking upon a realignment whose symptoms had been visible for some time. The discussion rarely produced a consensus because definitions of realignment are neither explicit nor theoretical, but historical and descriptive. This paper extends an argument which defines realignments as changes in the social group coalitions …
The midterm referendum: The importance of attributions of responsibility
Third Parties in America: Citizen Response to Major Party Failure, by Steven J. Rosenstone, Roy L. Behr and Edward H. Lazarus
In recent years a growing number of citizens have defected from the major parties to third party presidential candidates. Over the past three decades, independent campaigns led by George Wallace, John Anderson, and Ross Perot have attracted more electoral support than at any time since the 1920s. Third Parties in America explains why and when the two-party system deteriorates and third parties flourish. Relying on data from presidential elections…
Explaining and Predicting Elections: Issue Effects and Party Strategies in Twenty-Three Democracies, by Ian Budge and Dennis J. Farlie
Generations and Politics: A Panel Study of Young Adults and Their Parents. M. Kent Jennings , Richard G. Niemi
Explaining Party Elite Transformation: Institutional Changes and Insurgent Politics
T _1H E FATE of the Republican or Democratic party is often said to depend on what the voters want, more than anything else. Even party transformations which are not reducible to electoral alignments are typically explained as reflections of shifting ties between the electorate and the party. Such developments as the rise in incumbency, the insensitivity of congressional elections to all but the most dramatic electoral landslides, the rise of tec…
Party Coalitions: Realignment and the Decline of the New Deal Party System
Partisan Realignment: Voters, Parties, and Government in American History
Journal Article Partisan Realignment: Voters, Parties, and Government in American History. By Jerome M. Clubb, William H. Flanigan, and Nancy H. Zingale. (Beverly Hills, Calif.: Sage, 1980. 311 pp. Charts, and Party Coalitions: Realignment and the Decline of the New Deal Party System. By John R. Petrocik. (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1981. vii + 215 pp Get access Samuel T. McSeveney Samuel T. McSeveney Vanderbilt University Search for o…
Issue Ownership in Presidential Elections, with a 1980 Case Study
Theory: This paper develops and applies an issue ownership theory of voting that emphasizes the role of campaigns in setting the criteria for voters to choose between candidates. It expects candidates to emphasize issues on which they are advantaged and their opponents are less well regarded. It explains the structural factors and party system variables which lead candidates to differentially emphasize issues. It invokes theories of priming and f…
The Changing Politics of American Men: Understanding the Sources of the Gender Gap
We analyze male-female differences in partisanship and presidential voting between 1952 and 1996 to show that the gender gap is a product of the changing partisanship of men. We then focus on the 1992 and 1996 elections to explore two hypotheses about its sources. The Attitude Hypothesis proposes that the gender gap results from underlying gender differences in policy attitudes, and the Salience Hypothesis suggests that the gap results from the d…
Issue Ownership and Presidential Campaigning, 1952-2000
JOHN R. PETROCIK is a professor and chair of the Political Science Department at the University of Missouri-Columbia. He works in the area of elections, public opinion, and political parties. This paper is adapted from a book-length project on issue-ownership in American national politics. WILLIAM L. BENOIT is a professor of communication at the University of Missouri-Columbia. He has written five books on presidential campaigns, including Campai…
The Changing American Voter
Realignment: New Party Coalitions and the Nationalization of the South
Among academic and non-academic observers the Reagan election provoked speculation about whether the party system was finally embarking upon a realignment whose symptoms had been visible for some time. The discussion rarely produced a consensus because definitions of realignment are neither explicit nor theoretical, but historical and descriptive. This paper extends an argument which defines realignments as changes in the social group coalitions …
The Variable Incumbency Advantage: New Voters, Redistricting, and the Personal Vote
In this article we explore the personal vote costs of redistricting. After redistricting, incumbents often face significant numbers of new voters—voters that were previously in a different incumbent's district. Existing conceptualizations of the incumbency advantage suggest that the cost to incumbents of having new voters should be relatively small and predictable. We propose a different formulation: a variable incumbency advantage. We argue that…
Voter Turnout Among the American States: Systemic and Individual Components
Traditional studies of voter turnout in the United States have identified three factors which are presumed to explain most of the differences between the states in voter turnout: socio-demographic differences, electoral competitiveness, and differences in the rules under which elections are conducted. These studies have not, however, clearly distinguished the three factors largely because of their exclusive reliance on aggregate data to analyze t…
Explaining and Predicting Elections: Issue Effects and Party Strategies in Twenty-Three Democracies, by Ian Budge and Dennis J. Farlie
The Partisan Consequences of Majority-Minority Redistricting in the South, 1992 and 1994
This paper demonstrates that the creation of majority-minority districts was no more than an indirect cause of Democratic losses in 1992 and 1994, and the second-order effect of losing familiar voters was more important than the first-order effect of a reduced black constituency. Further, it demonstrates that a pro-GOP surge, independent of redistricting, was the critical factor without which neither new voters nor the reduced black population wo…
Electioneering: A Comparative Study of Continuity and Change, by David Butler, Austin Ranney
The United States, Jody Foster and Christopher Muste Latin America, Alan Angell et al Britain, Dennis Kavanagh Australia and New Zealand, Colin Hughes India, James Manor France, Jean Charlot and Monica Charlot Germany, Max Kaase Italy, Stephen Gundle Scandinavia, Peter Esaiasson Japan, Gerald L. Curtis stability and change in American electoral politics, Larry M. Bartels
An Expected Party Vote: New Data for an Old Concept
At its introduction the normal vote was a powerful concept and a useful tool. Within the last decade it has become a suspect idea and a flawed measurement. This paper uses a new and extensive data set to reoperationalize the concept. The specification by which it is derived avoids most of the problems inherent in the initial formulation. The paper illustrates the useful analytic insights provided by the concept, and it documents its utility as an…
The Puzzle of Indian Politics: Social Cleavages and the Indian Party System
The social cleavage theory of parly systems has provided a major framework for the study of Western party systems. It has been quite unimportant in studying other party systems, especially those of developing countries, where comparative development, and not mass electoral politics, has been the focus of study. This article reports the results of an attempt to bridge these traditions by analysing popular support for the Congress Party of India in…
Incumbency and Short-Term Influences on Voters
Using NES surveys from 1980 through 2000, this article examines the incumbency advantage with a series of survey reports of the vote, an approach that departs from the convention of estimating the incumbent advantage with aggregate election returns. Previous work conceptualizes the incumbency advantage as a small and stable vote bonus of six to eight percentage points since about 1970, based on aggregate electoral returns. This study provides a d…
Third Parties in America: Citizen Response to Major Party Failure, by Steven J. Rosenstone, Roy L. Behr and Edward H. Lazarus
In recent years a growing number of citizens have defected from the major parties to third party presidential candidates. Over the past three decades, independent campaigns led by George Wallace, John Anderson, and Ross Perot have attracted more electoral support than at any time since the 1920s. Third Parties in America explains why and when the two-party system deteriorates and third parties flourish. Relying on data from presidential elections…
The midterm referendum: The importance of attributions of responsibility
Religion, Religiosity, and the Moral Divide in Canadian Politics
Social group conflict along regional, ethnic, linguistic, and religious cleavages is deeply embedded in the Canadian historical experience. Contemporary analyses, however, have deprecated the role of religion and religiosity in shaping Canadians' political attitudes. This analysis demonstrates that religion and religiosity are significant correlates of Canadian attitudes on moral issues, paralleling the pattern observed in the United States. It d…
An Algorithm for Estimating Turnout as a Guide to Predicting Elections
Journal Article AN ALGORITHM FOR ESTIMATING TURNOUT AS A GUIDE TO PREDICTING ELECTIONS Get access JOHN R. PETROCIK JOHN R. PETROCIK University of CaliforniaLos Angeles Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Scholar Public Opinion Quarterly, Volume 55, Issue 4, WINTER 1991, Pages 643–647, https://doi.org/10.1086/269286 Published: 01 January 1991
Pursuing Majorities: Congressional Campaign Committees in American Politics
Explaining Party Elite Transformation: Institutional Changes and Insurgent Politics
T _1H E FATE of the Republican or Democratic party is often said to depend on what the voters want, more than anything else. Even party transformations which are not reducible to electoral alignments are typically explained as reflections of shifting ties between the electorate and the party. Such developments as the rise in incumbency, the insensitivity of congressional elections to all but the most dramatic electoral landslides, the rise of tec…
Voter Turnout Among the American States: Systemic and Individual Components
Traditional studies of voter turnout in the United States have identified three factors which are presumed to explain most of the differences between the states in voter turnout: socio-demographic differences, electoral competitiveness, and differences in the rules under which elections are conducted. These studies have not, however, clearly distinguished the three factors largely because of their exclusive reliance on aggregate data to analyze t…
The Changing American Voter
The Politics of Crisis
The Changing American Voter
The Logic of Party Democracy, by Alan Ware
Journal Article The Logic of Party Democracy, by Alan Ware Get access The Logic of Party Democracy by Alan Ware. New York, St. Martin’s Press, 1979. 209 pp. $16.95. John Petrocik John Petrocik University of California, Los Angeles Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Scholar Political Science Quarterly, Volume 95, Issue 3, Fall 1980, Pages 527–528, https://doi.org/10.2307/2150086 Published: 15 September 1980
Prejudice and the Old Politics: The Presidential Election of 1928. Allan J. Lichtman
Party Coalitions: Realignment and the Decline of the New Deal Party System
Partisan Realignment: Voters, Parties, and Government in American History
Journal Article Partisan Realignment: Voters, Parties, and Government in American History. By Jerome M. Clubb, William H. Flanigan, and Nancy H. Zingale. (Beverly Hills, Calif.: Sage, 1980. 311 pp. Charts, and Party Coalitions: Realignment and the Decline of the New Deal Party System. By John R. Petrocik. (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1981. vii + 215 pp Get access Samuel T. McSeveney Samuel T. McSeveney Vanderbilt University Search for o…
Generations and Politics: A Panel Study of Young Adults and Their Parents. M. Kent Jennings , Richard G. Niemi
Explaining Party Elite Transformation: Institutional Changes and Insurgent Politics
T _1H E FATE of the Republican or Democratic party is often said to depend on what the voters want, more than anything else. Even party transformations which are not reducible to electoral alignments are typically explained as reflections of shifting ties between the electorate and the party. Such developments as the rise in incumbency, the insensitivity of congressional elections to all but the most dramatic electoral landslides, the rise of tec…
Explaining and Predicting Elections: Issue Effects and Party Strategies in Twenty-Three Democracies, by Ian Budge and Dennis J. Farlie
Third Parties in America: Citizen Response to Major Party Failure, by Steven J. Rosenstone, Roy L. Behr and Edward H. Lazarus
In recent years a growing number of citizens have defected from the major parties to third party presidential candidates. Over the past three decades, independent campaigns led by George Wallace, John Anderson, and Ross Perot have attracted more electoral support than at any time since the 1920s. Third Parties in America explains why and when the two-party system deteriorates and third parties flourish. Relying on data from presidential elections…
The midterm referendum: The importance of attributions of responsibility
Stability and Change in American Politics: The Coming of Age of the Generation of the 1960s, by Michael X. Delli Carpini The Life of the Parties: Activists in Presidential Politics, by Ronald B. Rapop…
Realignment: New Party Coalitions and the Nationalization of the South
Among academic and non-academic observers the Reagan election provoked speculation about whether the party system was finally embarking upon a realignment whose symptoms had been visible for some time. The discussion rarely produced a consensus because definitions of realignment are neither explicit nor theoretical, but historical and descriptive. This paper extends an argument which defines realignments as changes in the social group coalitions …
An Expected Party Vote: New Data for an Old Concept
At its introduction the normal vote was a powerful concept and a useful tool. Within the last decade it has become a suspect idea and a flawed measurement. This paper uses a new and extensive data set to reoperationalize the concept. The specification by which it is derived avoids most of the problems inherent in the initial formulation. The paper illustrates the useful analytic insights provided by the concept, and it documents its utility as an…
The Puzzle of Indian Politics: Social Cleavages and the Indian Party System
The social cleavage theory of parly systems has provided a major framework for the study of Western party systems. It has been quite unimportant in studying other party systems, especially those of developing countries, where comparative development, and not mass electoral politics, has been the focus of study. This article reports the results of an attempt to bridge these traditions by analysing popular support for the Congress Party of India in…
An Algorithm for Estimating Turnout as a Guide to Predicting Elections
Journal Article AN ALGORITHM FOR ESTIMATING TURNOUT AS A GUIDE TO PREDICTING ELECTIONS Get access JOHN R. PETROCIK JOHN R. PETROCIK University of CaliforniaLos Angeles Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Scholar Public Opinion Quarterly, Volume 55, Issue 4, WINTER 1991, Pages 643–647, https://doi.org/10.1086/269286 Published: 01 January 1991
Electioneering: A Comparative Study of Continuity and Change, by David Butler, Austin Ranney
The United States, Jody Foster and Christopher Muste Latin America, Alan Angell et al Britain, Dennis Kavanagh Australia and New Zealand, Colin Hughes India, James Manor France, Jean Charlot and Monica Charlot Germany, Max Kaase Italy, Stephen Gundle Scandinavia, Peter Esaiasson Japan, Gerald L. Curtis stability and change in American electoral politics, Larry M. Bartels
Issue Ownership in Presidential Elections, with a 1980 Case Study
Theory: This paper develops and applies an issue ownership theory of voting that emphasizes the role of campaigns in setting the criteria for voters to choose between candidates. It expects candidates to emphasize issues on which they are advantaged and their opponents are less well regarded. It explains the structural factors and party system variables which lead candidates to differentially emphasize issues. It invokes theories of priming and f…
The Partisan Consequences of Majority-Minority Redistricting in the South, 1992 and 1994
This paper demonstrates that the creation of majority-minority districts was no more than an indirect cause of Democratic losses in 1992 and 1994, and the second-order effect of losing familiar voters was more important than the first-order effect of a reduced black constituency. Further, it demonstrates that a pro-GOP surge, independent of redistricting, was the critical factor without which neither new voters nor the reduced black population wo…
Pursuing Majorities: Congressional Campaign Committees in American Politics
The Changing Politics of American Men: Understanding the Sources of the Gender Gap
We analyze male-female differences in partisanship and presidential voting between 1952 and 1996 to show that the gender gap is a product of the changing partisanship of men. We then focus on the 1992 and 1996 elections to explore two hypotheses about its sources. The Attitude Hypothesis proposes that the gender gap results from underlying gender differences in policy attitudes, and the Salience Hypothesis suggests that the gap results from the d…
Race, Redistricting, and Representation: The Unintended Consequences of Black Majority Districts . David T. Canon
The Variable Incumbency Advantage: New Voters, Redistricting, and the Personal Vote
In this article we explore the personal vote costs of redistricting. After redistricting, incumbents often face significant numbers of new voters—voters that were previously in a different incumbent's district. Existing conceptualizations of the incumbency advantage suggest that the cost to incumbents of having new voters should be relatively small and predictable. We propose a different formulation: a variable incumbency advantage. We argue that…
Political science (30 works) · Law (25 works) · Politics (25 works) · Electoral Systems and Political Participation (19 works) · Law (19 works) · Sociology (17 works) · Economics (14 works) · Political economy (11 works) · Public Administration (10 works) · Computer Science (9 works)