Joop De Beer
Biographic Data
| ID | 275776 |
|---|---|
| NAME | Joop De Beer |
| GIVEN NAMES | Joop |
| FAMILY NAME | De Beer |
| SIGNATURE | DE BEER J |
| AFFILIATIONS | Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute |
| ORCID | 0000-0002-1629-247X |
| VERIFIED | Yes |
| TOTAL WORKS | 21 |
| TOTAL CITATIONS | 128 |
| AUTHOR COUNT | 21 |
| EDITOR COUNT | 0 |
| FIRST PUBLICATION YEAR | 1988 |
| LATEST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2022 |
| H-INDEX | 6 |
Microsimulation of Household and Marital Transitions Leading to Childlessness Among Dutch Women Born Between 1971 and 2000
After reaching historically low levels among the women born in the early 1940s, childlessness has been increasing in most Western countries among women born in the 1950s and 1960s. This increase took place as patterns of transition to adulthood have become increasingly late, protracted, and complex. Yet, it is precisely those women who enter a first relationship late, spend more time as single, and experience union instability who more often rema…
Assessing the Capacity to Work Among Older Workers
Whether increases to statutory retirement ages will have the anticipated effect in countries of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) depends on whether workers have the health capacity to postpone retirement. Methods that were proposed to measure the capacity to work at older age are ill-designed to assess inter-cohort trends, which is important for determining whether the amount of years spent retired and in good hea…
Unequally ageing regions of Europe
Since young adults tend to move from rural to urban regions, whereas older adults move from urban to rural regions, we may expect to see increasing differences in population ageing across urban and rural regions. This paper examines whether trends in population ageing across urban and rural NUTS-2 regions of the EU-27 have diverged over the period 2003-13. We use the methodological approach of convergence analysis, quite recently brought to demog…
Economic Convergence In Ageing Europe
European regions experience accelerating ageing, but the process has substantial regional variation. This paper examines the effect of this variation on regional economic cohesion in Europe. We measure the effect of convergence or divergence in the share of the working age population on convergence or divergence in economies of NUTS 2 regions. The effect of convergence or divergence in ageing on economic convergence or divergence is quite substan…
Comparison of Population Aging in Europe and Asia Using a Time-Consistent and Comparative Aging Measure
Objective: We compare population aging in Europe and Asia using a measure that is both consistent over time and appropriate for cross-country comparison. Method: Sanderson and Scherbov proposed to estimate the old-age threshold by the age at which the remaining life expectancy (RLE) equals 15 years. We propose an adjustment of this measure, taking into account cross-national differences in the exceptionality of reaching that age. Results: Our old…
Sigma and beta convergence in regional mortality
For allocation of health budgets it is important to know whether regional mortality differences tend to decline or to increase. Sigma convergence tests can measure whether the dispersion of the regional distribution of mortality has declined. Beta converge
From Demographic Dividend to Demographic Burden
In the coming years, the share of the working‐age population in the total population will start to decline in all countries of the E uropean U nion. All other things remaining equal, this so‐called demographic burden will have a downward effect on economic growth. This paper examines whether the E urope 2020 employment targets would be sufficient to compensate for the downward impact of demographic burden and whether the impact of demography on e…
A multistate model to project elderly disability in case of limited data
Prevalence of disability depends on when a person becomes disabled (disability incidence) and when he or she dies (mortality). Multistate projection models can take into account both underlying processes of disability prevalence. The application of these m
European Regional Populations
Europe is currently experiencing an ageing population and slowing population growth of both the total and working-age populations. These trends are likely to continue. Even though population ageing will affect all European regions, different regions will be affected in different ways. Even under favorable conditions, 35–40 % of all NUTS2 regions will face a labor force decline. If economic conditions are poor, some regions may continue to grow, b…
Smoothing and projecting age-specific probabilities of death by Topals
TOPALS is a new relational model for smoothing and projecting age schedules. The model is operationally simple, flexible, and transparent
Putting the Pieces of the Puzzle Together
A new relational method for smoothing and projecting age-specific fertility rates
Age-specific fertility rates can be smoothed using parametric models or splines. Alternatively a relational model can be used which relates the age profile to be fitted or projected to a standard age schedule. This paper introduces TOPALS (tool for pro
Overcoming the Problems of Inconsistent International Migration data
Due to differences in definitions and measurement methods, cross-country comparisons of international migration patterns are difficult and confusing. Emigration numbers reported by sending countries tend to differ from the corresponding immigration numbers reported by receiving countries. In this paper, a methodology is presented to achieve harmonised estimates of migration flows benchmarked to a specific definition of duration. This methodology …
The Netherlands
The Netherlands has seen a considerable decline of the period total fertility rate and delayed childbearing, just like all other European countries. The drop in fertility, however, has not been as sharp as in many other regions of Europe. The period to
Estimating Mortality with the Intercensus Cohort Component Method
La méthode de projection intercensitaire par génération (MPIG) a été mise au point pour estimer l’espérance de vie à la naissance année par année au cours d’une période intercensitaire. Elle a été développée parce que l’application des méthodes classiques d’estimation de la mortalité avait donné des résultats incohérents. Elle comprend trois grandes étapes. La première consiste à projeter par itération les structures par âge de la population d’un…
An Explanatory Model for Projecting Regional Fertility Differences in the Netherlands
Current differences in the level of the total fertility rate (TFR) between Dutch municipalities are smaller than they were in the 1970s and 1980s. Nevertheless, there are still considerable differences. Small municipalities have higher TFRs than large cities. This article aims to answer the question whether these differences will decline further until differences between large and small cities disappear. For that purpose we develop a regression m…
Estimation de la mortalité par la méthode de projection intercensitaire par génération
La méthode de projection intercensitaire par génération (MPIG) a été mise au point pour estimer l'espérance de vie à la naissance année par année au cours d'une période intercensitaire. Elle a été développée parce que l'application des méthodes classiques d'estimation de la mortalité avait donné des résultats incohérents. Elle comprend trois grandes étapes. La première consiste à projeter par itération les structures par âge de la population d'un…
Measuring the effect of changing legislation on the frequency of divorce
This article discusses different procedures for measuring the effects of judicial changes on divorce rates. It presents an alternative model and applies it to a historical time series for the Netherlands. In this model, intervention variables were added to a statistical time-series (ARIMA) model. The conclusion of our analysis was that the effects of three judicial changes were only temporary
Births and cohort size
Ahlburg (1983, 1986) tested a simple version of Easterlin's relative-cohort-size model of fertility on the basis of U.S. and Canadian post-war data. His conclusion was that the Easterlin model fits the data very well and can therefore be used for calculating forecasts. However, the model he estimated is oversimplified. In this paper an alternative specification is presented. The model is applied to Dutch fertility data. The Easterlin effect is fo…
Projecting age-specific fertility rates by using time-series methods
Predictability of demographic variables in the short run
Overcoming the Problems of Inconsistent International Migration data
Due to differences in definitions and measurement methods, cross-country comparisons of international migration patterns are difficult and confusing. Emigration numbers reported by sending countries tend to differ from the corresponding immigration numbers reported by receiving countries. In this paper, a methodology is presented to achieve harmonised estimates of migration flows benchmarked to a specific definition of duration. This methodology …
The Netherlands
The Netherlands has seen a considerable decline of the period total fertility rate and delayed childbearing, just like all other European countries. The drop in fertility, however, has not been as sharp as in many other regions of Europe. The period to
Smoothing and projecting age-specific probabilities of death by Topals
TOPALS is a new relational model for smoothing and projecting age schedules. The model is operationally simple, flexible, and transparent
Putting the Pieces of the Puzzle Together
European Regional Populations
Europe is currently experiencing an ageing population and slowing population growth of both the total and working-age populations. These trends are likely to continue. Even though population ageing will affect all European regions, different regions will be affected in different ways. Even under favorable conditions, 35–40 % of all NUTS2 regions will face a labor force decline. If economic conditions are poor, some regions may continue to grow, b…
Sigma and beta convergence in regional mortality
For allocation of health budgets it is important to know whether regional mortality differences tend to decline or to increase. Sigma convergence tests can measure whether the dispersion of the regional distribution of mortality has declined. Beta converge
Unequally ageing regions of Europe
Since young adults tend to move from rural to urban regions, whereas older adults move from urban to rural regions, we may expect to see increasing differences in population ageing across urban and rural regions. This paper examines whether trends in population ageing across urban and rural NUTS-2 regions of the EU-27 have diverged over the period 2003-13. We use the methodological approach of convergence analysis, quite recently brought to demog…
A new relational method for smoothing and projecting age-specific fertility rates
Age-specific fertility rates can be smoothed using parametric models or splines. Alternatively a relational model can be used which relates the age profile to be fitted or projected to a standard age schedule. This paper introduces TOPALS (tool for pro
An Explanatory Model for Projecting Regional Fertility Differences in the Netherlands
Current differences in the level of the total fertility rate (TFR) between Dutch municipalities are smaller than they were in the 1970s and 1980s. Nevertheless, there are still considerable differences. Small municipalities have higher TFRs than large cities. This article aims to answer the question whether these differences will decline further until differences between large and small cities disappear. For that purpose we develop a regression m…
From Demographic Dividend to Demographic Burden
In the coming years, the share of the working‐age population in the total population will start to decline in all countries of the E uropean U nion. All other things remaining equal, this so‐called demographic burden will have a downward effect on economic growth. This paper examines whether the E urope 2020 employment targets would be sufficient to compensate for the downward impact of demographic burden and whether the impact of demography on e…
Measuring the effect of changing legislation on the frequency of divorce
This article discusses different procedures for measuring the effects of judicial changes on divorce rates. It presents an alternative model and applies it to a historical time series for the Netherlands. In this model, intervention variables were added to a statistical time-series (ARIMA) model. The conclusion of our analysis was that the effects of three judicial changes were only temporary
Comparison of Population Aging in Europe and Asia Using a Time-Consistent and Comparative Aging Measure
Objective: We compare population aging in Europe and Asia using a measure that is both consistent over time and appropriate for cross-country comparison. Method: Sanderson and Scherbov proposed to estimate the old-age threshold by the age at which the remaining life expectancy (RLE) equals 15 years. We propose an adjustment of this measure, taking into account cross-national differences in the exceptionality of reaching that age. Results: Our old…
Predictability of demographic variables in the short run
Assessing the Capacity to Work Among Older Workers
Whether increases to statutory retirement ages will have the anticipated effect in countries of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) depends on whether workers have the health capacity to postpone retirement. Methods that were proposed to measure the capacity to work at older age are ill-designed to assess inter-cohort trends, which is important for determining whether the amount of years spent retired and in good hea…
A multistate model to project elderly disability in case of limited data
Prevalence of disability depends on when a person becomes disabled (disability incidence) and when he or she dies (mortality). Multistate projection models can take into account both underlying processes of disability prevalence. The application of these m
Estimation de la mortalité par la méthode de projection intercensitaire par génération
La méthode de projection intercensitaire par génération (MPIG) a été mise au point pour estimer l'espérance de vie à la naissance année par année au cours d'une période intercensitaire. Elle a été développée parce que l'application des méthodes classiques d'estimation de la mortalité avait donné des résultats incohérents. Elle comprend trois grandes étapes. La première consiste à projeter par itération les structures par âge de la population d'un…
Projecting age-specific fertility rates by using time-series methods
Predictability of demographic variables in the short run
Projecting age-specific fertility rates by using time-series methods
Births and cohort size
Ahlburg (1983, 1986) tested a simple version of Easterlin's relative-cohort-size model of fertility on the basis of U.S. and Canadian post-war data. His conclusion was that the Easterlin model fits the data very well and can therefore be used for calculating forecasts. However, the model he estimated is oversimplified. In this paper an alternative specification is presented. The model is applied to Dutch fertility data. The Easterlin effect is fo…
Measuring the effect of changing legislation on the frequency of divorce
This article discusses different procedures for measuring the effects of judicial changes on divorce rates. It presents an alternative model and applies it to a historical time series for the Netherlands. In this model, intervention variables were added to a statistical time-series (ARIMA) model. The conclusion of our analysis was that the effects of three judicial changes were only temporary
Estimating Mortality with the Intercensus Cohort Component Method
La méthode de projection intercensitaire par génération (MPIG) a été mise au point pour estimer l’espérance de vie à la naissance année par année au cours d’une période intercensitaire. Elle a été développée parce que l’application des méthodes classiques d’estimation de la mortalité avait donné des résultats incohérents. Elle comprend trois grandes étapes. La première consiste à projeter par itération les structures par âge de la population d’un…
An Explanatory Model for Projecting Regional Fertility Differences in the Netherlands
Current differences in the level of the total fertility rate (TFR) between Dutch municipalities are smaller than they were in the 1970s and 1980s. Nevertheless, there are still considerable differences. Small municipalities have higher TFRs than large cities. This article aims to answer the question whether these differences will decline further until differences between large and small cities disappear. For that purpose we develop a regression m…
Estimation de la mortalité par la méthode de projection intercensitaire par génération
La méthode de projection intercensitaire par génération (MPIG) a été mise au point pour estimer l'espérance de vie à la naissance année par année au cours d'une période intercensitaire. Elle a été développée parce que l'application des méthodes classiques d'estimation de la mortalité avait donné des résultats incohérents. Elle comprend trois grandes étapes. La première consiste à projeter par itération les structures par âge de la population d'un…
The Netherlands
The Netherlands has seen a considerable decline of the period total fertility rate and delayed childbearing, just like all other European countries. The drop in fertility, however, has not been as sharp as in many other regions of Europe. The period to
Overcoming the Problems of Inconsistent International Migration data
Due to differences in definitions and measurement methods, cross-country comparisons of international migration patterns are difficult and confusing. Emigration numbers reported by sending countries tend to differ from the corresponding immigration numbers reported by receiving countries. In this paper, a methodology is presented to achieve harmonised estimates of migration flows benchmarked to a specific definition of duration. This methodology …
Putting the Pieces of the Puzzle Together
A new relational method for smoothing and projecting age-specific fertility rates
Age-specific fertility rates can be smoothed using parametric models or splines. Alternatively a relational model can be used which relates the age profile to be fitted or projected to a standard age schedule. This paper introduces TOPALS (tool for pro
European Regional Populations
Europe is currently experiencing an ageing population and slowing population growth of both the total and working-age populations. These trends are likely to continue. Even though population ageing will affect all European regions, different regions will be affected in different ways. Even under favorable conditions, 35–40 % of all NUTS2 regions will face a labor force decline. If economic conditions are poor, some regions may continue to grow, b…
Smoothing and projecting age-specific probabilities of death by Topals
TOPALS is a new relational model for smoothing and projecting age schedules. The model is operationally simple, flexible, and transparent
From Demographic Dividend to Demographic Burden
In the coming years, the share of the working‐age population in the total population will start to decline in all countries of the E uropean U nion. All other things remaining equal, this so‐called demographic burden will have a downward effect on economic growth. This paper examines whether the E urope 2020 employment targets would be sufficient to compensate for the downward impact of demographic burden and whether the impact of demography on e…
A multistate model to project elderly disability in case of limited data
Prevalence of disability depends on when a person becomes disabled (disability incidence) and when he or she dies (mortality). Multistate projection models can take into account both underlying processes of disability prevalence. The application of these m
Sigma and beta convergence in regional mortality
For allocation of health budgets it is important to know whether regional mortality differences tend to decline or to increase. Sigma convergence tests can measure whether the dispersion of the regional distribution of mortality has declined. Beta converge
Comparison of Population Aging in Europe and Asia Using a Time-Consistent and Comparative Aging Measure
Objective: We compare population aging in Europe and Asia using a measure that is both consistent over time and appropriate for cross-country comparison. Method: Sanderson and Scherbov proposed to estimate the old-age threshold by the age at which the remaining life expectancy (RLE) equals 15 years. We propose an adjustment of this measure, taking into account cross-national differences in the exceptionality of reaching that age. Results: Our old…
Economic Convergence In Ageing Europe
European regions experience accelerating ageing, but the process has substantial regional variation. This paper examines the effect of this variation on regional economic cohesion in Europe. We measure the effect of convergence or divergence in the share of the working age population on convergence or divergence in economies of NUTS 2 regions. The effect of convergence or divergence in ageing on economic convergence or divergence is quite substan…
Assessing the Capacity to Work Among Older Workers
Whether increases to statutory retirement ages will have the anticipated effect in countries of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) depends on whether workers have the health capacity to postpone retirement. Methods that were proposed to measure the capacity to work at older age are ill-designed to assess inter-cohort trends, which is important for determining whether the amount of years spent retired and in good hea…
Unequally ageing regions of Europe
Since young adults tend to move from rural to urban regions, whereas older adults move from urban to rural regions, we may expect to see increasing differences in population ageing across urban and rural regions. This paper examines whether trends in population ageing across urban and rural NUTS-2 regions of the EU-27 have diverged over the period 2003-13. We use the methodological approach of convergence analysis, quite recently brought to demog…
Microsimulation of Household and Marital Transitions Leading to Childlessness Among Dutch Women Born Between 1971 and 2000
After reaching historically low levels among the women born in the early 1940s, childlessness has been increasing in most Western countries among women born in the 1950s and 1960s. This increase took place as patterns of transition to adulthood have become increasingly late, protracted, and complex. Yet, it is precisely those women who enter a first relationship late, spend more time as single, and experience union instability who more often rema…
Demography (17 works) · Sociology (14 works) · Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management (13 works) · Population (13 works) · Demography (12 works) · Economics (11 works) · Geography (11 works) · Mathematics (10 works) · Demographic economics (9 works) · Global Health Care Issues (9 works)