Nicolas Rost
Biographic Data
| ID | 280676 |
|---|---|
| NAME | Nicolas Rost |
| GIVEN NAMES | Nicolas |
| FAMILY NAME | Rost |
| SIGNATURE | ROST N |
| AFFILIATIONS | United Nations |
| ORCID | 0000-0002-9277-5692 |
| VERIFIED | Yes |
| TOTAL WORKS | 12 |
| TOTAL CITATIONS | 79 |
| AUTHOR COUNT | 12 |
| EDITOR COUNT | 0 |
| FIRST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2006 |
| LATEST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2025 |
| H-INDEX | 5 |
Why do governments fund some humanitarian appeals but not others
A simple model to facilitate fast humanitarian funding
This article presents a simple regression model to inform decisions on the allocation amount from the United Nations' Central Emergency Response Fund (CERF) in response to new or deteriorating humanitarian emergencies. The model offers a quick and user-friendly way to summarise historical (2016-24) CERF allocations and to estimate amounts for new allocations. It includes four elements: type of emergency; total funding required for a short-term hu…
Religion as a Peacemaker? Peace Duration after Ethnic Civil Wars
What role does religion play in preventing civil war from recurring? Politicians have proposed that when warring groups share the same religion, achieving a durable peace will be easier. We test this hypothesis empirically using a large-nsample of all ethnic civil wars that began and ended between 1950 and 2006, and a measure of co-religiosity between the ethnic group in power and the main opposition group. The analysis shows that there is no pos…
Mediation and Peacekeeping in Civil Wars
The occurrence of outside mediation and peacekeeping has increased exponentially since the end of the Cold War. But how do third-party states and international organizations decide which civil wars to intervene in? And how do they decide whether to mediate talks between the warring parties or to send peacekeepers? In this study, we propose that third parties are influenced by their interests in a civil war country, they take into account the urge…
Sustaining the peace after ethnic civil wars
We explore factors that influence the duration of peace after an ethnic civil war. Results from a series of survival models indicate that political and economic discrimination against the ethnic group that was involved in the war on the opposition side diminishes chances for peace. This finding is robust across different model specifications. Group size, group concentration, war duration and war outcome also influence the risk of war recurrence, …
Will it happen again? On the possibility of forecasting the risk of genocide
Can genocides be predicted? I present two models (and further robustness tests) to assess the risk of genocide onset one year into the future. The first model is global and includes all country-years for which data are available. While it does a good job at identifying the few cases of genocide onset in the sample, it also generates a high number of false alarms. The second model uses a smaller sample restricted to conflict-years. It correctly id…
Human Rights Violations, Weak States, and Civil War
Taking matters into their own hands: An analysis of the determinants of state-conducted peacekeeping in civil wars
Why and when do states take the burden upon themselves to send peacekeepers into a civil war, rather than relying on intergovernmental organizations to do so? While there are a few empirical studies on the conditions under which the UN sends peacekeeping missions, no such analyses of state-conducted peacekeeping exist. In this study, a theoretical framework on state-conducted peacekeeping in civil wars is developed and empirically tested. Not sur…
A global risk assessment model for civil wars
Mediating Civil War Settlements and the Duration of Peace
In this article, we examine the impact of international mediation attempts during civil war on the duration of peace once the war has ended. We include several aspects of the mediation attempt in our theoretical framework and our empirical tests, but we also control for other characteristics of the conflict and the country. While studies often find that decisive victories lead to a more durable peace, we expect that different types of mediation a…
Determinants of regime type in newly independent states
Since 1945, newly independent states have differed from longer lived states in their greater risk of violent conflict and more challenging environment for democratisation. The authors of this article theorise that certain economic, demographic, violence‐related and external factors should affect the regime type (level of democracy versus autocracy) in newly independent states. Examining exclusively newly independent states that have undergone maj…
Assessing Risk and Opportunity in Conflict Studies: A Human Rights Analysis
Over the past two decades, substantial progress has been made toward a theoretical understanding of why physical integrity abuses are committed. Unfortunately, these theoretical developments have been devoid of much practical application. In this article, the authors explore the feasibility of risk assessment in the study of these human rights. Borrowing an approach by Gurr and Moore, they construct a risk assessment vehicle that uses existing mo…
Assessing Risk and Opportunity in Conflict Studies: A Human Rights Analysis
Over the past two decades, substantial progress has been made toward a theoretical understanding of why physical integrity abuses are committed. Unfortunately, these theoretical developments have been devoid of much practical application. In this article, the authors explore the feasibility of risk assessment in the study of these human rights. Borrowing an approach by Gurr and Moore, they construct a risk assessment vehicle that uses existing mo…
Mediating Civil War Settlements and the Duration of Peace
In this article, we examine the impact of international mediation attempts during civil war on the duration of peace once the war has ended. We include several aspects of the mediation attempt in our theoretical framework and our empirical tests, but we also control for other characteristics of the conflict and the country. While studies often find that decisive victories lead to a more durable peace, we expect that different types of mediation a…
Sustaining the peace after ethnic civil wars
We explore factors that influence the duration of peace after an ethnic civil war. Results from a series of survival models indicate that political and economic discrimination against the ethnic group that was involved in the war on the opposition side diminishes chances for peace. This finding is robust across different model specifications. Group size, group concentration, war duration and war outcome also influence the risk of war recurrence, …
Will it happen again? On the possibility of forecasting the risk of genocide
Can genocides be predicted? I present two models (and further robustness tests) to assess the risk of genocide onset one year into the future. The first model is global and includes all country-years for which data are available. While it does a good job at identifying the few cases of genocide onset in the sample, it also generates a high number of false alarms. The second model uses a smaller sample restricted to conflict-years. It correctly id…
Religion as a Peacemaker? Peace Duration after Ethnic Civil Wars
What role does religion play in preventing civil war from recurring? Politicians have proposed that when warring groups share the same religion, achieving a durable peace will be easier. We test this hypothesis empirically using a large-nsample of all ethnic civil wars that began and ended between 1950 and 2006, and a measure of co-religiosity between the ethnic group in power and the main opposition group. The analysis shows that there is no pos…
A global risk assessment model for civil wars
Taking matters into their own hands: An analysis of the determinants of state-conducted peacekeeping in civil wars
Why and when do states take the burden upon themselves to send peacekeepers into a civil war, rather than relying on intergovernmental organizations to do so? While there are a few empirical studies on the conditions under which the UN sends peacekeeping missions, no such analyses of state-conducted peacekeeping exist. In this study, a theoretical framework on state-conducted peacekeeping in civil wars is developed and empirically tested. Not sur…
Determinants of regime type in newly independent states
Since 1945, newly independent states have differed from longer lived states in their greater risk of violent conflict and more challenging environment for democratisation. The authors of this article theorise that certain economic, demographic, violence‐related and external factors should affect the regime type (level of democracy versus autocracy) in newly independent states. Examining exclusively newly independent states that have undergone maj…
Mediation and Peacekeeping in Civil Wars
The occurrence of outside mediation and peacekeeping has increased exponentially since the end of the Cold War. But how do third-party states and international organizations decide which civil wars to intervene in? And how do they decide whether to mediate talks between the warring parties or to send peacekeepers? In this study, we propose that third parties are influenced by their interests in a civil war country, they take into account the urge…
Human Rights Violations, Weak States, and Civil War
Assessing Risk and Opportunity in Conflict Studies: A Human Rights Analysis
Over the past two decades, substantial progress has been made toward a theoretical understanding of why physical integrity abuses are committed. Unfortunately, these theoretical developments have been devoid of much practical application. In this article, the authors explore the feasibility of risk assessment in the study of these human rights. Borrowing an approach by Gurr and Moore, they construct a risk assessment vehicle that uses existing mo…
Mediating Civil War Settlements and the Duration of Peace
In this article, we examine the impact of international mediation attempts during civil war on the duration of peace once the war has ended. We include several aspects of the mediation attempt in our theoretical framework and our empirical tests, but we also control for other characteristics of the conflict and the country. While studies often find that decisive victories lead to a more durable peace, we expect that different types of mediation a…
Determinants of regime type in newly independent states
Since 1945, newly independent states have differed from longer lived states in their greater risk of violent conflict and more challenging environment for democratisation. The authors of this article theorise that certain economic, demographic, violence‐related and external factors should affect the regime type (level of democracy versus autocracy) in newly independent states. Examining exclusively newly independent states that have undergone maj…
A global risk assessment model for civil wars
Human Rights Violations, Weak States, and Civil War
Taking matters into their own hands: An analysis of the determinants of state-conducted peacekeeping in civil wars
Why and when do states take the burden upon themselves to send peacekeepers into a civil war, rather than relying on intergovernmental organizations to do so? While there are a few empirical studies on the conditions under which the UN sends peacekeeping missions, no such analyses of state-conducted peacekeeping exist. In this study, a theoretical framework on state-conducted peacekeeping in civil wars is developed and empirically tested. Not sur…
Mediation and Peacekeeping in Civil Wars
The occurrence of outside mediation and peacekeeping has increased exponentially since the end of the Cold War. But how do third-party states and international organizations decide which civil wars to intervene in? And how do they decide whether to mediate talks between the warring parties or to send peacekeepers? In this study, we propose that third parties are influenced by their interests in a civil war country, they take into account the urge…
Sustaining the peace after ethnic civil wars
We explore factors that influence the duration of peace after an ethnic civil war. Results from a series of survival models indicate that political and economic discrimination against the ethnic group that was involved in the war on the opposition side diminishes chances for peace. This finding is robust across different model specifications. Group size, group concentration, war duration and war outcome also influence the risk of war recurrence, …
Will it happen again? On the possibility of forecasting the risk of genocide
Can genocides be predicted? I present two models (and further robustness tests) to assess the risk of genocide onset one year into the future. The first model is global and includes all country-years for which data are available. While it does a good job at identifying the few cases of genocide onset in the sample, it also generates a high number of false alarms. The second model uses a smaller sample restricted to conflict-years. It correctly id…
Religion as a Peacemaker? Peace Duration after Ethnic Civil Wars
What role does religion play in preventing civil war from recurring? Politicians have proposed that when warring groups share the same religion, achieving a durable peace will be easier. We test this hypothesis empirically using a large-nsample of all ethnic civil wars that began and ended between 1950 and 2006, and a measure of co-religiosity between the ethnic group in power and the main opposition group. The analysis shows that there is no pos…
Why do governments fund some humanitarian appeals but not others
A simple model to facilitate fast humanitarian funding
This article presents a simple regression model to inform decisions on the allocation amount from the United Nations' Central Emergency Response Fund (CERF) in response to new or deteriorating humanitarian emergencies. The model offers a quick and user-friendly way to summarise historical (2016-24) CERF allocations and to estimate amounts for new allocations. It includes four elements: type of emergency; total funding required for a short-term hu…
Law (12 works) · Political science (12 works) · Political Conflict and Governance (10 works) · Law (8 works) · Sociology (7 works) · Spanish Civil War (7 works) · Economics (6 works) · Political economy (6 works) · Politics (6 works) · Computer Science (4 works)