Valerie Sticher
Biographic Data
| ID | 283866 |
|---|---|
| NAME | Valerie Sticher |
| GIVEN NAMES | Valerie |
| FAMILY NAME | Sticher |
| SIGNATURE | STICHER V |
| AFFILIATIONS | Leiden University |
| ORCID | 0000-0003-0827-8958 |
| VERIFIED | Yes |
| TOTAL WORKS | 12 |
| TOTAL CITATIONS | 23 |
| AUTHOR COUNT | 11 |
| EDITOR COUNT | 1 |
| FIRST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2021 |
| LATEST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2025 |
| H-INDEX | 3 |
Ceasefires: Stopping the Violence and Negotiating Peace
The rural limits of conflict monitoring using nighttime lights
To reduce the suffering caused by armed conflicts, humanitarian organizations are exploring the use of remote conflict monitoring, including through satellite data, to complement human efforts in detecting crises early. Nighttime light (NTL) is a promising data source for such initiatives, as it can capture changes in human activities that may not have physical manifestations detectable by other satellite data. We assess a key requirement for usi…
War and peace in the age of AI
As artificial intelligence evolves from predefined narrow applications to more capable general-purpose models, there is growing interest in how this technology affects international security. While most research focuses on the military realm, this reflective essay explores the broader implications of artificial intelligence for international security. It presents three main arguments: (1) the debate over whether we are experiencing an artificial …
Ambassador, you're on Mute: Methods for Co-interviewing Elites Online
This article draws on the experiences of two previously unacquainted researchers working at distance who collaboratively used online platforms to co-interview respondents across a dozen countries in 2021-22. Rather than our research plans being disrupted by the constraints of COVID-19, we planned from the outset to conduct our research entirely online. Given our geographic separation, personal circumstances, and globally dispersed respondents, on…
Forum: Making Peace with Un-Certainty: Reflections on the Role of Digital Technology in Peace Processes beyond the Data Hype
Recent years have seen the acceleration of data- and evidence-based approaches in support of peace processes, creating a renewed confidence that conflicts can be predicted, known, and resolved, based on objective information about the world. However, new technologies employed by conflict parties, stakeholders, and those who aim to make or build peace have also made peace processes less ascertainable, intelligible, and predictable. Technology can …
Do Eyes in the Sky Ensure Peace on the Ground? The Uncertain Contributions of Remote Sensing to Ceasefire Compliance
In many conflicts, international ceasefire monitors are deployed to mitigate future violence. Increasingly, such monitors use satellite imagery, uncrewed aerial vehicles, and other camera-equipped assets to supplement, and sometimes substitute, human monitoring efforts to document ceasefire violations. To date, we know little about when and how such technology contributes to ceasefire compliance, with scholars offering diverging assessments of th…
Introducing the ETH/PRIO Civil Conflict Ceasefire Dataset
This article introduces the Civil Conflict CeaseFire (CF) dataset. The CF data covers all ceasefires in civil conflict between 1989 and 2020, including multilateral, bilateral and unilateral arrangements, ranging from verbal arrangements to detailed written agreements. In total, the CF data includes 2202 ceasefires across 66 countries and 109 civil conflicts. The data feature information on the actors involved in the ceasefire, and the class, pur…
Ceasefire Violations: Why They Occur and How They Relate to Strategic Decision-Making Processes
Almost all ceasefires experience violations, yet we know little about how such violations relate to the military and political aspirations of conflict parties. This article builds on ceasefire and bargaining literature to understand why ceasefire violations occur and how they relate to strategic decision-making processes. Building on these theoretical insights, it proposes a typology of four main types of ceasefire violations: strategic violation…
Negotiating Peace with Your Enemy: The Problem of Costly Concessions
Why do some parties fail to settle conflict, even after long periods of fighting? Bargaining theory explains this through imperfect information, commitment problems, war entrepreneurs, and indivisible stakes. Integrating insights from social psychology into bargaining theory, this article proposes an additional bargaining obstacle. Conflict party members not only care about their in-group's welfare, but also want to avoid rewarding their opponent…
Healing Stalemates: The Role of Ceasefires in Ripening Conflict
Ceasefires are often associated with inhibiting conflict ripeness because they remove the immediate costs of conflict and the pressure on conflicting parties to negotiate. Yet, in many intrastate conflicts, ceasefires have proven instrumental in reviving or enabling peace talks. This article provides an analytical framework to systematically assess the impact of ceasefires on conflict ripeness and identify key factors that condition their effects…
The Logic of Ceasefires in Civil War
Ceasefires play a role in almost all civil war peace processes. Yet existing studies undertheorize the ways in which different logics drive the design of ceasefire agreements, and the effect this has on violence suspension. Building on bargaining theory and existing ceasefire literature, we identify different bargaining problems conflict parties face over the course of a conflict, and three classes of ceasefire design they use to address these pr…
Bargaining in intrastate conflicts: The shifting role of ceasefires
Research shows that conflict parties engage in ceasefires in pursuit of a variety of objectives, some of which reduce while others fuel violent conflict. This article provides a framework that links these objectives to a larger process. Building on bargaining theory, three distinct bargaining contexts are specified for intrastate conflicts. In the Diminishing Opponent context, leaders believe that a military solution yields a better outcome than …
The Logic of Ceasefires in Civil War
Ceasefires play a role in almost all civil war peace processes. Yet existing studies undertheorize the ways in which different logics drive the design of ceasefire agreements, and the effect this has on violence suspension. Building on bargaining theory and existing ceasefire literature, we identify different bargaining problems conflict parties face over the course of a conflict, and three classes of ceasefire design they use to address these pr…
Do Eyes in the Sky Ensure Peace on the Ground? The Uncertain Contributions of Remote Sensing to Ceasefire Compliance
In many conflicts, international ceasefire monitors are deployed to mitigate future violence. Increasingly, such monitors use satellite imagery, uncrewed aerial vehicles, and other camera-equipped assets to supplement, and sometimes substitute, human monitoring efforts to document ceasefire violations. To date, we know little about when and how such technology contributes to ceasefire compliance, with scholars offering diverging assessments of th…
Negotiating Peace with Your Enemy: The Problem of Costly Concessions
Why do some parties fail to settle conflict, even after long periods of fighting? Bargaining theory explains this through imperfect information, commitment problems, war entrepreneurs, and indivisible stakes. Integrating insights from social psychology into bargaining theory, this article proposes an additional bargaining obstacle. Conflict party members not only care about their in-group's welfare, but also want to avoid rewarding their opponent…
Introducing the ETH/PRIO Civil Conflict Ceasefire Dataset
This article introduces the Civil Conflict CeaseFire (CF) dataset. The CF data covers all ceasefires in civil conflict between 1989 and 2020, including multilateral, bilateral and unilateral arrangements, ranging from verbal arrangements to detailed written agreements. In total, the CF data includes 2202 ceasefires across 66 countries and 109 civil conflicts. The data feature information on the actors involved in the ceasefire, and the class, pur…
Ceasefire Violations: Why They Occur and How They Relate to Strategic Decision-Making Processes
Almost all ceasefires experience violations, yet we know little about how such violations relate to the military and political aspirations of conflict parties. This article builds on ceasefire and bargaining literature to understand why ceasefire violations occur and how they relate to strategic decision-making processes. Building on these theoretical insights, it proposes a typology of four main types of ceasefire violations: strategic violation…
Bargaining in intrastate conflicts: The shifting role of ceasefires
Research shows that conflict parties engage in ceasefires in pursuit of a variety of objectives, some of which reduce while others fuel violent conflict. This article provides a framework that links these objectives to a larger process. Building on bargaining theory, three distinct bargaining contexts are specified for intrastate conflicts. In the Diminishing Opponent context, leaders believe that a military solution yields a better outcome than …
War and peace in the age of AI
As artificial intelligence evolves from predefined narrow applications to more capable general-purpose models, there is growing interest in how this technology affects international security. While most research focuses on the military realm, this reflective essay explores the broader implications of artificial intelligence for international security. It presents three main arguments: (1) the debate over whether we are experiencing an artificial …
Ambassador, you're on Mute: Methods for Co-interviewing Elites Online
This article draws on the experiences of two previously unacquainted researchers working at distance who collaboratively used online platforms to co-interview respondents across a dozen countries in 2021-22. Rather than our research plans being disrupted by the constraints of COVID-19, we planned from the outset to conduct our research entirely online. Given our geographic separation, personal circumstances, and globally dispersed respondents, on…
Forum: Making Peace with Un-Certainty: Reflections on the Role of Digital Technology in Peace Processes beyond the Data Hype
Recent years have seen the acceleration of data- and evidence-based approaches in support of peace processes, creating a renewed confidence that conflicts can be predicted, known, and resolved, based on objective information about the world. However, new technologies employed by conflict parties, stakeholders, and those who aim to make or build peace have also made peace processes less ascertainable, intelligible, and predictable. Technology can …
Healing Stalemates: The Role of Ceasefires in Ripening Conflict
Ceasefires are often associated with inhibiting conflict ripeness because they remove the immediate costs of conflict and the pressure on conflicting parties to negotiate. Yet, in many intrastate conflicts, ceasefires have proven instrumental in reviving or enabling peace talks. This article provides an analytical framework to systematically assess the impact of ceasefires on conflict ripeness and identify key factors that condition their effects…
Negotiating Peace with Your Enemy: The Problem of Costly Concessions
Why do some parties fail to settle conflict, even after long periods of fighting? Bargaining theory explains this through imperfect information, commitment problems, war entrepreneurs, and indivisible stakes. Integrating insights from social psychology into bargaining theory, this article proposes an additional bargaining obstacle. Conflict party members not only care about their in-group's welfare, but also want to avoid rewarding their opponent…
Healing Stalemates: The Role of Ceasefires in Ripening Conflict
Ceasefires are often associated with inhibiting conflict ripeness because they remove the immediate costs of conflict and the pressure on conflicting parties to negotiate. Yet, in many intrastate conflicts, ceasefires have proven instrumental in reviving or enabling peace talks. This article provides an analytical framework to systematically assess the impact of ceasefires on conflict ripeness and identify key factors that condition their effects…
The Logic of Ceasefires in Civil War
Ceasefires play a role in almost all civil war peace processes. Yet existing studies undertheorize the ways in which different logics drive the design of ceasefire agreements, and the effect this has on violence suspension. Building on bargaining theory and existing ceasefire literature, we identify different bargaining problems conflict parties face over the course of a conflict, and three classes of ceasefire design they use to address these pr…
Bargaining in intrastate conflicts: The shifting role of ceasefires
Research shows that conflict parties engage in ceasefires in pursuit of a variety of objectives, some of which reduce while others fuel violent conflict. This article provides a framework that links these objectives to a larger process. Building on bargaining theory, three distinct bargaining contexts are specified for intrastate conflicts. In the Diminishing Opponent context, leaders believe that a military solution yields a better outcome than …
Ceasefire Violations: Why They Occur and How They Relate to Strategic Decision-Making Processes
Almost all ceasefires experience violations, yet we know little about how such violations relate to the military and political aspirations of conflict parties. This article builds on ceasefire and bargaining literature to understand why ceasefire violations occur and how they relate to strategic decision-making processes. Building on these theoretical insights, it proposes a typology of four main types of ceasefire violations: strategic violation…
Forum: Making Peace with Un-Certainty: Reflections on the Role of Digital Technology in Peace Processes beyond the Data Hype
Recent years have seen the acceleration of data- and evidence-based approaches in support of peace processes, creating a renewed confidence that conflicts can be predicted, known, and resolved, based on objective information about the world. However, new technologies employed by conflict parties, stakeholders, and those who aim to make or build peace have also made peace processes less ascertainable, intelligible, and predictable. Technology can …
Do Eyes in the Sky Ensure Peace on the Ground? The Uncertain Contributions of Remote Sensing to Ceasefire Compliance
In many conflicts, international ceasefire monitors are deployed to mitigate future violence. Increasingly, such monitors use satellite imagery, uncrewed aerial vehicles, and other camera-equipped assets to supplement, and sometimes substitute, human monitoring efforts to document ceasefire violations. To date, we know little about when and how such technology contributes to ceasefire compliance, with scholars offering diverging assessments of th…
Introducing the ETH/PRIO Civil Conflict Ceasefire Dataset
This article introduces the Civil Conflict CeaseFire (CF) dataset. The CF data covers all ceasefires in civil conflict between 1989 and 2020, including multilateral, bilateral and unilateral arrangements, ranging from verbal arrangements to detailed written agreements. In total, the CF data includes 2202 ceasefires across 66 countries and 109 civil conflicts. The data feature information on the actors involved in the ceasefire, and the class, pur…
War and peace in the age of AI
As artificial intelligence evolves from predefined narrow applications to more capable general-purpose models, there is growing interest in how this technology affects international security. While most research focuses on the military realm, this reflective essay explores the broader implications of artificial intelligence for international security. It presents three main arguments: (1) the debate over whether we are experiencing an artificial …
Ambassador, you're on Mute: Methods for Co-interviewing Elites Online
This article draws on the experiences of two previously unacquainted researchers working at distance who collaboratively used online platforms to co-interview respondents across a dozen countries in 2021-22. Rather than our research plans being disrupted by the constraints of COVID-19, we planned from the outset to conduct our research entirely online. Given our geographic separation, personal circumstances, and globally dispersed respondents, on…
Ceasefires: Stopping the Violence and Negotiating Peace
The rural limits of conflict monitoring using nighttime lights
To reduce the suffering caused by armed conflicts, humanitarian organizations are exploring the use of remote conflict monitoring, including through satellite data, to complement human efforts in detecting crises early. Nighttime light (NTL) is a promising data source for such initiatives, as it can capture changes in human activities that may not have physical manifestations detectable by other satellite data. We assess a key requirement for usi…
Political science (10 works) · Peacebuilding and International Security (9 works) · Political Conflict and Governance (7 works) · Law (6 works) · Sociology (6 works) · Computer Science (5 works) · Politics (4 works) · Psychology (4 works) · Economics (3 works) · Global Peace and Security Dynamics (3 works)