Andrew Scobell
Biographic Data
| ID | 288278 |
|---|---|
| NAME | Andrew Scobell |
| GIVEN NAMES | Andrew |
| FAMILY NAME | Scobell |
| SIGNATURE | SCOBELL A |
| AFFILIATIONS | RAND Corporation |
| VERIFIED | No |
| TOTAL WORKS | 72 |
| TOTAL CITATIONS | 140 |
| AUTHOR COUNT | 70 |
| EDITOR COUNT | 2 |
| FIRST PUBLICATION YEAR | 1988 |
| LATEST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2026 |
| H-INDEX | 6 |
China’s Changing Role in the Middle East: Filling a Power Vacuum
Why Getting China Half Right Risks Getting It All Wrong
China's Gambit: The Calculus of Coercion by Ketian Zhang
China, Russia, and the USA in the Middle East: The Contest for Supremacy
The Dragon Roars Back: Transformational Leaders and Dynamics of Chinese Foreign Policy by Suisheng Zhao
Journal Article The Dragon Roars Back: Transformational Leaders and Dynamics of Chinese Foreign Policy by Suisheng Zhao Get access Suisheng Zhao. Stanford, CA, Stanford University Press, 2023. 344 pp. Paper, $32.00. Andrew Scobell Andrew Scobell United States Institute of Peace Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Scholar Political Science Quarterly, qqae030, https://doi.org/10.1093/psquar/qqae030 Published: 12 April 2…
China’s Minimalist Global Military Posture: Great Power Lite
What explains the mismatch between China’s vast economic presence, significant diplomatic engagement around the world, and its miniscule global military posture? China’s global defense footprint – as measured by overseas deployments and basing – is extremely modest compared to that of many other great powers. While military activity and the construction of military installations in the Asia-Pacific have both expanded noticeably in recent decades,…
Coalitions of the Weak: Elite Politics in China from Mao’s Stratagem to the Rise of Xi by Victor C. Shih
Journal Article Coalitions of the Weak: Elite Politics in China from Mao’s Stratagem to the Rise of Xi by Victor C Shih Get access Victor C Shih. New York, Cambridge University Press, 2022. 232 pp. $34.99. Andrew Scobell Andrew Scobell United States Institute of Peace Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Scholar Political Science Quarterly, qqad083, https://doi.org/10.1093/psquar/qqad083 Published: 21 September 2023
China and Grand Strategy: Does the Empire Have a Plan? A Review Essay
Thucydides’s Trap? Historical Interpretation, Logic of Inquiry, and the Future of Sino-American Relations
Constructing a U.S.-China Rivalry in the Indo-Pacific and Beyond
The Washington-Beijing rivalry of the early twentieth century was neither pre-ordained nor an aberration. It was constructed as domestic constituencies in each country were socialized toward confrontation. Pro-cooperation coalitions, which had emerged in each country to support alignment against a mutually perceived Soviet threat, were undermined by the final chapter of the Cold War. Yet a simmering U.S.-China rivalry was subsumed by an unsustain…
Perception and Misperception in U.S.-China Relations
Journal Article Perception and Misperception in U.S.-China Relations Get access Andrew Scobell Andrew Scobell ANDREW SCOBELL holds the Bren Chair of Non-Western Strategic Thought in the Krulak Center at Marine Corps University. He is on a leave of absence from the RAND Corporation. Correspondence SCOBELL ANDREW, Rand Corporation, 1200 South Hayes Street, Arlington, VA, 22202, United States. E-mail: [email protected] Search for other works by this …
China’s Global Identity: Considering the Responsibilities of a Great Power
Active Defense: China’s Military Strategy since 1949
Four Problems on the Korean Peninsula: North Korea's Expanding Nuclear Capabilities Drive a Complex Set of Problems
North Korea's ongoing development of nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles increases the possibility of their use against regional states, furthering instability across the region and beyond. This toolkit provides visualizations illuminating four Korea-related problems: North Korea's nuclear arsenal, North Korean artillery systems, evacuating South Korean population centers, and securing North Korean nuclear weapons and facilities
The Evolving Israel-China Relationship
Since the early 2000s, relations between China and Israel have expanded in terms of trade, investment, and educational partnerships. China is interested in advanced technology and Israel's strategic location, while Israel seeks to expand ties with the world's fastest growing major economy and diversify its export markets. In this report, RAND researchers discuss the relationship and the challenges it poses for Israel and for the United States
The Himalayan Impasse: Sino-Indian Rivalry in the Wake of Doklam
In mid-June 2017, Bhutanese authorities detected Chinese personnel, presumably members of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), building a road in a disputed region of the Doklam plateau near the Bhu
After the Summit: Prospects for the Korean Peninsula
History suggests that the most probable consequence of the Singapore Summit will be difficult and lengthy negotiation followed by slow and inadequate compliance, quite possibly on both sides
The South China Sea and U.S.-China Rivalry
IS THE SOUTH CHINA SEA a key flash point for U.S.-China rivalry or a tempest in a teacup? This article examines the body of water from a geopolitical perspective and concludes that it is a significant flash point in U.S.-China rivalry. By “rivalry,” I mean an antagonistic relationship between two states embroiled in “long-term hostility” and competition manifested in “multiple disputes, continuing [policy] disagreements and the threat of the use …
The Routledge Handbook of Asian Security Studies
China and North Korea: Bolstering a Buffer or Hunkering Down in Northeast Asia?
North Korea has been a near-constant headache for China since the early 1990s. In light of Pyongyang's recent provocations, what are Beijing's interests on the Korean Peninsula? And what is the potential for U.S.-China cooperation on the issue?
China Engages the World, Warily: A Review Essay
Journal Article China Engages the World, Warily: A Review Essay Get access Andrew Scobell Andrew Scobell ANDREW SCOBELL is senior political scientist at the RAND Corporation and adjunct professor at Georgetown University. Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Scholar Political Science Quarterly, Volume 132, Issue 2, Summer 2017, Pages 341–345, https://doi.org/10.1002/polq.12619 Published: 27 June 2017
China in the Era of Xi Jinping: Domestic and Foreign Policy Challenges edited
As Xi Jinping completes his first five-year term as China’s top political leader, now seems an appropriate juncture to attempt an interim assessment of his tenure as chairman of the ruling Chinese Communist Party, chairman of the Central Military Commission of the People’s Liberation Army, and president of the People’s Republic of China (PRC). China in the Era of Xi Jinping provides a timely assessment of China’s most controversial paramount lead…
Whither Hong Kong?
This Perspective considers the future trajectory of the Special Administrative Region in light of the 2014 prodemocracy street protests and their aftermath. First, it examines economic and political trends in Hong Kong–China relations; second, it considers the issues triggering these recent protests; third, it considers the effect of the protests; fourth, it explores possible future scenarios; and lastly, it offers some concluding observations.
China in the Middle East: The Wary Dragon
This study examines China's interests in the Middle East and assesses China's economic, political, and security activities there to determine whether China has a strategy toward the region and what such a strategy means for the United States. The study focuses on China's relations with two of its key partners in the Middle East: Saudi Arabia and Iran
China’s Futures: PRC Elites Debate Economics, Politics, and Foreign Policy
Pontificating about the future of China has long been the subject of speculation around the world, with one of the most colorful remarks being attributed to Napoleon Bonaparte some 200 years ago. “China,” he reportedly observed, “is a sleeping giant. Let her sleep, for when she wakes she will shake the world.” Not surprisingly, the country’s future is also a matter of intense interest in China itself. In China’s Futures, author Daniel C. Lynch fo…
China Goes Global: The Partial Power
One of the most-prominent sinologists in the United States has written an important book on the global impact of China's rise. This first-person account draws upon interviews with senior officials and leading scholars in China and around the world. The author not only spent considerable time inside China but also made research trips to countries in almost every part of the globe except Africa and the Middle East. The result is what David Shambaug…
The Pivot: The Future of American Statecraft in Asia
The U.S. “pivot” to the Asia-Pacific has received considerable hype, but until now, no credible and extended articulation of the concept has been forthcoming. As one of the chief architects and implementers of the policy, Kurt Campbell, former assistant secretary of state for East Asia and Pacific affairs in the Barack Obama administration from 2009 to 2013, is well placed to provide an authoritative and detailed discourse. Yet this volume defies…
An “Assertive” China? Insights from Interviews
Recent years have witnessed the emergence of a more assertive China. What happened to China's “peaceful rise” and “charm offensive”? What explains the changes in China's foreign policy? According to interviews with Beijing and Shanghai-based analysts, China's assertiveness between 2008 and 2010 can be divided into two waves, each triggered by a different cause. The first wave seems triggered by a sense in Beijing that Washington, DC was more diff…
The Next Great War? The Roots of World War I and the Risk of U.S.–China Conflict
Journal Article The Next Great War? The Roots of World War I and the Risk of U.S.–China Conflict Get access The Next Great War? The Roots of World War I and the Risk of U.S.–China Conflict by Richard N. Rosecrance and Steven E. Miller. Cambridge, MA, MIT Press, 2014. 320 pp. $27.00. Andrew Scobell Andrew Scobell RAND Corporation Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Scholar Political Science Quarterly, Volume 130, Issue…
Strategic Reassurance and Resolve: U.S.–China Relations in the Twenty-First Century
Journal Article Strategic Reassurance and Resolve: U.S.–China Relations in the Twenty-First Century Get access Strategic Reassurance and Resolve: U.S.–China Relations in the Twenty-First Century by James Steinberg and Michael E. O’Hanlon. Princeton, NJ, Princeton University Press, 2014. 272 pp. $29.95. Andrew Scobell Andrew Scobell RAND Corporation Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Scholar Political Science Quarterl…
Making Sense of North Korea: Pyongyang and Comparative Communism
Highly repressive, heavily militarized, strongly resistant to reform, and ruled by a dynastic dictatorship that adheres to a hybrid ideology, North Korea might be “the strangest political system in existence.” While distinctive, North Korea is an orthodox communist party-state best classified as an eroding totalitarian regime. Although weakening, Pyongyang remains durable and could survive for many more years. Absent “regime change,” North Korea …
Politics, Professionalism, and Peacekeeping: An Analysis of the 1987 Military Coup in Fiji
L'A. s'interroge sur les origines du coup d'Etat militaire perpetre le 14 mai 1987 dans les iles Fidji, devenues pourtant un modele de democratie post-coloniale et multi-ethnique. Si les conflits de classe et d'ethnie ont constitue un facteur important dans le declenchement du coup d'Etat militaire, celui-ci serait davantage le resultat, selon l'A., d'une action des militaires pour proteger leurs interets, en particulier institutionnels
Active Defense: China’s Military Strategy since 1949
China's Real Strategic Culture: A Great Wall of the Imagination
The Great Wall is frequently held up as the most striking symbol of the potency of a persistent Chinese pacifist, non-expansionist, defence-minded strategic stance. But how accurate is this ‘Great Wall’ depiction of China's strategic culture? What is the impact of this depiction on China and the Asia-Pacific region? While the Great Wall is an apt symbol of a romanticized image of Chinese strategic culture, the reality behind the genesis of this i…
Learning to Rise Peacefully? China and the security dilemma
The People's Republic of China's turbulent experience during the Cold War (1949–1991) has been followed by a remarkably tranquil period. Although conflict and crisis have certainly not been completely absent in the post-Cold War era, the PRC has managed to undertake three decades of 'peaceful rise' or 'peaceful development'. What explains this remarkably peaceful great power ascent? Prominent scholars, such as Thomas Christensen and Iain Johnston…
Show of Force: Chinese Soldiers, Statesmen, and the 1995-1996 Taiwan Strait Crisis
Journal Article Show of Force: Chinese Soldiers, Statesmen, and the 1995–1996 Taiwan Strait Crisis Get access Andrew Scobell Andrew Scobell ANDREW SCOBELL is assistant professor of political science at the University of Louisville. Currently on a leave of absence from the university, he is Associate Research Professor of National Security Affairs in the Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College. Search for other works by this autho…
Constructing a U.S.-China Rivalry in the Indo-Pacific and Beyond
The Washington-Beijing rivalry of the early twentieth century was neither pre-ordained nor an aberration. It was constructed as domestic constituencies in each country were socialized toward confrontation. Pro-cooperation coalitions, which had emerged in each country to support alignment against a mutually perceived Soviet threat, were undermined by the final chapter of the Cold War. Yet a simmering U.S.-China rivalry was subsumed by an unsustain…
The South China Sea and U.S.-China Rivalry
IS THE SOUTH CHINA SEA a key flash point for U.S.-China rivalry or a tempest in a teacup? This article examines the body of water from a geopolitical perspective and concludes that it is a significant flash point in U.S.-China rivalry. By “rivalry,” I mean an antagonistic relationship between two states embroiled in “long-term hostility” and competition manifested in “multiple disputes, continuing [policy] disagreements and the threat of the use …
Hong Kong's Influence on China: The Tail That Wags the Dog
In 1982, when talks began between the People's Republic of China (PRC) and the United Kingdom (UK) over the future status of Hong Kong, speculation centered on their eventual outcome. Informed observers knew that only one result was acceptable to the PRC: the eventual return of the territory to Chinese sovereignty. Since the UK was in no position to dispute this, the only negotiating points were when and how such a changeover would occur. While m…
China's Overstretched Military
China's Evolving Civil-Military Relations: Creeping Guojiahua
China has experienced unprecedented economic, political, and social changes during the past twenty-five years, and in 2002-2003 just witnessed a sweeping turnover of political and military elites. Civil-military relations in China are undergoing a major transfor-mation, but experts tend to disagree on what the most important trend is. This article contends that the most significant transformation underway in Chinese civil-military relations is st…
Why the People's Army Fired on the People: The Chinese Military and Tiananmen
The People's Liberation Army played the decisive role in crushing the 1989 student prodemocracy movement in the People's Republic of China. The actual process by which the PLA became involved in the crisis can be broken down into three phases. First, a divided and indecisive Chinese Communist Party leadership presides over an unprecedented outpouring of public discontent. Second, after much delay, top CCP leaders decide to impose martial law, and…
Perception and Misperception in U.S.-China Relations
Journal Article Perception and Misperception in U.S.-China Relations Get access Andrew Scobell Andrew Scobell ANDREW SCOBELL holds the Bren Chair of Non-Western Strategic Thought in the Krulak Center at Marine Corps University. He is on a leave of absence from the RAND Corporation. Correspondence SCOBELL ANDREW, Rand Corporation, 1200 South Hayes Street, Arlington, VA, 22202, United States. E-mail: [email protected] Search for other works by this …
The Himalayan Impasse: Sino-Indian Rivalry in the Wake of Doklam
In mid-June 2017, Bhutanese authorities detected Chinese personnel, presumably members of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), building a road in a disputed region of the Doklam plateau near the Bhu
China’s Futures: PRC Elites Debate Economics, Politics, and Foreign Policy
Pontificating about the future of China has long been the subject of speculation around the world, with one of the most colorful remarks being attributed to Napoleon Bonaparte some 200 years ago. “China,” he reportedly observed, “is a sleeping giant. Let her sleep, for when she wakes she will shake the world.” Not surprisingly, the country’s future is also a matter of intense interest in China itself. In China’s Futures, author Daniel C. Lynch fo…
The Nexus of Economics, Security, and International Relations in East Asia
China's Search for Security
China and Taiwan: Balance of Rivalry with Weapons of Mass Democratization
North Korea End-Game or Mid-Game? Some scenarios and their implications for US–China relations
North Korea looms large as a challenge for the United States and China. US–China cooperation in working to deal with the challenge of North Korea is often held up as an example of constructive engagement between Washington and Beijing. Nevertheless, North Korea has the potential to generate discord or even conflict between the United States and China. This paper considers several possible scenarios for North Korea and evaluates the implications o…
Crouching Korea, Hidden China: Bush Administration Policy toward Pyongyang and Beijing
Hong Kong's Influence on China: The Tail That Wags the Dog
In 1982, when talks began between the People's Republic of China (PRC) and the United Kingdom (UK) over the future status of Hong Kong, speculation centered on their eventual outcome. Informed observers knew that only one result was acceptable to the PRC: the eventual return of the territory to Chinese sovereignty. Since the UK was in no position to dispute this, the only negotiating points were when and how such a changeover would occur. While m…
Materialist feminism and the politics of discourse: More Than Words
Why the People's Army Fired on the People: The Chinese Military and Tiananmen
The People's Liberation Army played the decisive role in crushing the 1989 student prodemocracy movement in the People's Republic of China. The actual process by which the PLA became involved in the crisis can be broken down into three phases. First, a divided and indecisive Chinese Communist Party leadership presides over an unprecedented outpouring of public discontent. Second, after much delay, top CCP leaders decide to impose martial law, and…
Politics, Professionalism, and Peacekeeping: An Analysis of the 1987 Military Coup in Fiji
L'A. s'interroge sur les origines du coup d'Etat militaire perpetre le 14 mai 1987 dans les iles Fidji, devenues pourtant un modele de democratie post-coloniale et multi-ethnique. Si les conflits de classe et d'ethnie ont constitue un facteur important dans le declenchement du coup d'Etat militaire, celui-ci serait davantage le resultat, selon l'A., d'une action des militaires pour proteger leurs interets, en particulier institutionnels
Military coups in the people’s republic of China: Failure, fabrication, or fancy?
After Deng, What: Reconsidering the Prospects for a Democratic Transition in China
China is slowly laying a solid foundation upon which democracy can one day be built. Democracy is not inevitable, but when scholars of the twenty-first century look back on the 1980s and 1990s, they may identify this period as a turning point in the process of China’s democratization
Techno-Security in an Age of Globalization
Taiwan as Macedonia? Strait tensions as a syndrome
In June 1995 a private visit to the United States by Taiwanese president Lee Teng‐hui generated a wave of acrimonious rhetoric and bellicose activity by China. Tensions in the Taiwan Strait, which by the early 1990s appeared to be at a four‐decade low, suddenly escalated. In mid 1995 and early 1996 China conducted missile tests in the waters around Taiwan and conducted large scale military exercises off the Chinese coast in the vicinity of the is…
Soldiers, statesmen, strategic culture and China's 1950 intervention in Korea
Is China a rational, peaceful, and defensive‐minded power or an irrational, bellicose, and expansionist state? Are Chinese soldiers more hawkish than Chinese statesmen? Many analysts remark on the growing influence in foreign affairs of the PLA in the post‐Deng era. There is no consensus, however, on what this increasing influence will mean in practice. This article analyzes the attitudes of civilian and military figures toward Beijing's 1950 int…
Introduction to review essays on ‘unrestricted warfare’
Introduction to review essays on ‘unrestricted warfare’." Small Wars & Insurgencies, 11(1), pp. 112–113
Show of Force: Chinese Soldiers, Statesmen, and the 1995-1996 Taiwan Strait Crisis
Journal Article Show of Force: Chinese Soldiers, Statesmen, and the 1995–1996 Taiwan Strait Crisis Get access Andrew Scobell Andrew Scobell ANDREW SCOBELL is assistant professor of political science at the University of Louisville. Currently on a leave of absence from the university, he is Associate Research Professor of National Security Affairs in the Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College. Search for other works by this autho…
China and Strategic Culture
The author examines the impact of strategic culture on 21st century China. He contends that the People's Republic of China's security policies and its tendency to use military force are influenced not only by elite understandings of China's own strategic tradition, but also by their understandings of the strategic cultures of other states. Gaining a fuller appreciation for how Chinese strategists view the United States and Japan, our key ally in …
Crouching Korea, Hidden China: Bush Administration Policy toward Pyongyang and Beijing
The Lessons of History: The Chinese People's Liberation Army at 75
The title of this volume, "The Lessons of History: The Chinese People's Liberation Army at 75," captures well the overall theme of the twelve chapters that follow. The primary focus is not on summarizing the lessons that analysts or scholars from outside China have learned when they look back at the past three-quarters of a century of Chinese military history. Rather, the emphasis of this volume is to assess key lessons that the top ranks of the …
China's Use of Military Force: Beyond the Great Wall and the Long March
In this 2003 study of China's militarism, Andrew Scobell examines the use of military force abroad - as in Korea (1950), Vietnam (1979), and the Taiwan Strait (1995–6) - and domestically, as during the Cultural Revolution of the late 1960s and in the 1989 military crackdown in Tiananmen Square. Debunking the view that China has become increasingly belligerent in recent years because of the growing influence of soldiers, Scobell concludes that Chi…
China and North Korea: The Limits of Influence
The Bush administration should recognize that on North Korea, only limited support will be forthcoming from Beijing. The best Washington can expect is a China actively pressing the United States and North Korea to talk and willing to host or participate in further meetings. But this presumes that both Pyongyang and Washington are ready to sit down in the first place
The Fallout of a Nuclear North Korea
The nuclearization of North Korea will have a profound impact on Northeast Asia. If Pyongyang opts for crash nuclearization through a weapon test, that could bring the countries of the region together in opposition. This reaction is far from assured, however
Making Sense of North Korea: Pyongyang and Comparative Communism
Highly repressive, heavily militarized, strongly resistant to reform, and ruled by a dynastic dictatorship that adheres to a hybrid ideology, North Korea might be “the strangest political system in existence.” While distinctive, North Korea is an orthodox communist party-state best classified as an eroding totalitarian regime. Although weakening, Pyongyang remains durable and could survive for many more years. Absent “regime change,” North Korea …
China's Evolving Civil-Military Relations: Creeping Guojiahua
China has experienced unprecedented economic, political, and social changes during the past twenty-five years, and in 2002-2003 just witnessed a sweeping turnover of political and military elites. Civil-military relations in China are undergoing a major transfor-mation, but experts tend to disagree on what the most important trend is. This article contends that the most significant transformation underway in Chinese civil-military relations is st…
North Korea's Military Threat: Pyongyang's Conventional Forces, Weapons of Mass Destruction and Ballistic Missiles
This monograph will examine the armed forces of the DPRK, both conventional and unconventional. The official North Korean name of all branches of North Korea's armed forces is the Chosen Inking or KPA. This monograph will address the following topics: the political context of the military in the DPRK; the origins and evolution of the armed forces; and the KPA's command and control structure and its WMD and conventional components, including doctr…
North Korea End-Game or Mid-Game? Some scenarios and their implications for US–China relations
North Korea looms large as a challenge for the United States and China. US–China cooperation in working to deal with the challenge of North Korea is often held up as an example of constructive engagement between Washington and Beijing. Nevertheless, North Korea has the potential to generate discord or even conflict between the United States and China. This paper considers several possible scenarios for North Korea and evaluates the implications o…
The Evolution of North Korea's Political System and Pyongyang's Potential for Conflict Management
IntroductionObservers tend to label Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) as a bizarre political system that can only be understood on its own terms. One respected analyst suggests that DPRK might just be the strangest political system in existence.1 Some observers argue that North Korea is a dangerous rogue state that is heavily armed, unpredictable and dangerous.2 Others argue that North Korea, while strange at first glance, becomes more…
China Rising: Peace, Power, and Order in East Asia by David C. Kang
Journal Article China Rising: Peace, Power, and Order in East Asia by David C. Kang Get access China Rising: Peace, Power, and Order in East Asiaby David C. Kang. New York, Columbia University Press, 2007. 296 pp. $24.95. Andrew Scobell Andrew Scobell Texas A&M University Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Scholar Political Science Quarterly, Volume 123, Issue 2, Summer 2008, Pages 324–325, https://doi.org/10.1002/j.…
Beyond the Strait: PLA Missions Other Than Taiwan
Held on September 26, 2008, the 2008 People's Liberation Army (PLA) Conference, conducted by the National Bureau of Asian Research, the Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College, and the Bush School of Government and Public Service at Texas A&M University, brought together more than 70 leading experts to examine the PLA's evoloving role and how PLA doctrine will affect both Taiwan and the entire Asia-Pacific region. This monograph …
Is There a Civil-Military Gap in China’s Peaceful Rise
In the first decade of the twenty-first century, the People's Republic of China appears intent on becoming a responsible great power. Beijing continues to insist--as it has for several decades--that peace and development are the key trends of the times. President Hu Jintao claims that China is focused on building a and moderately prosperous at home and a harmonious abroad. Beijing has taken great pains to stress that its growing power does not th…
Political science (65 works) · Law (52 works) · China (51 works) · Politics (44 works) · Sociology (35 works) · Law (34 works) · Political economy (32 works) · Economics (30 works) · International Relations and Foreign Policy (25 works) · History (18 works)