Douglas A Hibbs
Biographic Data
| ID | 293558 |
|---|---|
| NAME | Douglas A Hibbs |
| GIVEN NAMES | Douglas A |
| FAMILY NAME | Hibbs |
| SIGNATURE | HIBBS D A |
| AFFILIATIONS | University of Gothenburg |
| VERIFIED | No |
| TOTAL WORKS | 32 |
| TOTAL CITATIONS | 1869 |
| AUTHOR COUNT | 32 |
| EDITOR COUNT | 0 |
| FIRST PUBLICATION YEAR | 1973 |
| LATEST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2013 |
| H-INDEX | 14 |
The Bread and Peace Model
President Obama received approximately 51.5% of the two-party vote in the 2012 election. The last Bread and Peace Model forecast of Obama's vote share, based on advance estimates of 2012:quarter 3 personal income posted on October 26, 2012, by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), was 46.6%—lower than the 47.5% forecast appearing in the October issue of PS, which was based on July 27, 2012, BEA data. The Bread and Peace Model therefore underpred…
Obama's Reelection Prospects under “Bread and Peace” Voting in the 2012 US Presidential Election
According to the Bread and Peace Model postwar, American presidential elections should be interpreted as a sequence of referendums on the incumbent party's record during its four-year mandate period. In fact postwar aggregate votes for president are well explained by just two objectively measured fundamental determinants: (1) weighted-average growth of per capita real disposable personal income over the term, and (2) cumulative US military fatali…
Tax Toleration and Tax Compliance
How do government‐supplied institutional benefits and the taxation and regulation of producers affect the propensity of private firms to enter the unofficial economy and evade taxation? We propose a model in which the incentive of firms to operate underground depends on tax rates relative to firm‐specific thresholds of tax toleration that are decisively affected by quality of governance—in particular by the presence of high‐grade institutions del…
Voting and the Macroeconomy
This article discusses voting and the macroeconomy and focuses on its more important developments. It studies two views of economic voting, which are prospective and retrospective. This is followed by a section on empirical implementation, where pure prospective voting, pure retrospective voting, and prospective voting are introduced. The article also examines individual electoral choices and aggregate vote shares, and clarifies responsibility in…
Implications of the ‘bread and peace’ model for the 2008 US presidential election
Douglas A. Hibbs, Jr. 1977. “Political Parties and Macroeconomic Policy.” American Political Science Review 71 (December)
I began working on “Political Parties and Macroeconomic Policy” in 1974, delivered the paper at the August 1975 meetings of the World Econometric Society in Toronto and the APSA in San Francisco, and shortly thereafter submitted it to the Review , where it languished for more than a year before it was accepted (just barely, I sensed) after a change of editor. The article's title is somewhat misleading because the evidence pertained to the influen…
Biogeography and long-run economic development
Bread and Peace Voting in U.S. Presidential Elections
On Ad‐Hominem Assertion and Scientific Discourse in the Study of Sociotropic and Egocentric Motivations of Political Attitudes and Behaviour
Partisan theory after fifteen years
Market Forces, Trade Union Ideology and Trends in Swedish Wage Dispersion
Compression of the distribution of relative wages was an important goal of Sweden's central confederation of blue-collar trade unions (LO) from the mid-1960s up to the breakdown of effective central wage formation in the early 1980s. In this article I analyze LO's success in achieving its ideology of wage equality in the market by companng observed wage dispersion trends to (i) the time path of human capital dispersion and (ii) the time path of w…
The Personal Vote
The American Political Economy
Journal Article The American Political Economy: Macroeconomics and Electoral Politics Get access The American Political Economy: Macroeconomics and Electoral Politics. BY DOUGLAS A. HIBBS J R . (Cambridge, Massachusetts & London: Harvard University Press, 1987. Pp. xiii + 404. £27.95, US$41.95 hardback. ISBN 0 784 02735 3.) Vani K. Borooah Vani K. Borooah University of Ulster Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Schola…
Income Distribution in the United States
Political action has affected postwar income distribution in the United States mainly through policy-induced variations in macroeconomic activity and government transfer benefits in proportion to total income. We present a small dynamic model of the connections among the partisan balance of power, macroeconomic fluctuations, transfer spending trends, and income distribution outcomes. The model is based on the premise that the parties have differe…
The Political Economy of Industrial Democracies
The American Political Economy
More on Economic Performance and Political Support in Britain
I am flattered that a political scientist of William Keech's caliber uses words such as ingenious and outstanding to describe my work. I am also grateful that he took the time and was given the opportunity by the Review to show the implications of my theory of political support for a stylized case where unmeasured sources of support for British governments among the occupational classes are nil (a qj = 0), the only performance variable valued by …
Contemporary Political Economy
Journal Article Contemporary Political Economy Get access Contemporary Political Economy. Edited by D. A. HIBBS and H. Fassbender. (Amsterdam: North-Holland, 1981. Pp. ix + 282. $39.00, Dfl 80.00.) David Austen-Smith David Austen-Smith University of York Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Scholar The Economic Journal, Volume 92, Issue 365, 1 March 1982, Pages 189–191, https://doi.org/10.2307/2232270 Published: 01 Mar…
On the Demand for Economic Outcomes
The Dynamics of Political Support for American Presidents Among Occupational and Partisan Groups
This article investigates the response of political support for American presidents among occupational and partisan groups to economic and noneconomic events within the framework of a dynamic model of political choice. Estimates of the model reveal the relative sensitivity of different groups' political support to unemployment, inflation and the real income growth rate as well as to the Vietnam casualties, the Watergate scandal and international …
Economic Outcomes and Political Support for British Governments among Occupational Classes
The first section of the article establishes the political salience of macroeconomic issues to the British electorate, reviews the distributional consequences of macroeconomic outcomes, and suggests that unemployment outcomes in particular have strong class-related distributional effects.The second part presents a dynamic model of how rational voters evaluate the governing party, based on the idea that voters evaluate the cumulative performance o…
Public Reactions to the Growth of Taxation and Government Expenditure
Opinion poll and behavioral evidence indicates that public resistance to the growth of taxation and state expenditure has increased significantly during the last decade in many advanced industrial democracies. This paper examines trends in the magnitude, composition, and consequences of taxation and government spending in relation to cross-national patterns of popular opposition to the expansion of the welfare state in five European industrial so…
The Impact of Economic Performance on Electoral Support in Sweden, 1967–1978
This article investigates the impact of macroeconomic conditions on aggregate political support for governing parties in Sweden over the period 1967–1978. After reviewing survey evidence on the relative salience of economic and fiscal issues to the Swedish electorate, a novel, dynamic model of political support is presented. The model incorporates the ideas that voters evaluate economic performance relatively rather than absolutely, and that gove…
Economics and Politics in France
During recent years the state of the economy has been a very salient issue for the mass publics of the industrial democracies, and the French electorate is no exception. In this article the influence of inflation, unemployment and real income growth performance on popular ‘satisfaction’ with Presidents Pompidou and Giscard d'Estaing is analysed. The empirical analyses are based on a model of qualitative political responses. The most important fea…
The Mass Public and Macroeconomic Performance
In every year since 1972 more than 70 percent of mass public identified an economic issue, principally inflation or unemployment, as the most important problem facing this country today. This study is motivated by belief that public opinion toward salient economic issues is an important part of domestic political environment influencing macroeconomic policy. The first few sections of article review data on public's relative aversion to inflation …
Political Parties and Macroeconomic Policy
This study examines postwar patterns in macroeconomic policies and outcomes associated with left-and right-wing governments in capitalist democracies. It argues that the objective economic interests as well as the subjective preferences of lower income and occupational status groups are best served by a relatively low unemployment-high inflation macroeconomic configuration, whereas a comparatively high unemployment-low inflation configuration is …
On the Demand for Economic Outcomes
The Dynamics of Political Support for American Presidents Among Occupational and Partisan Groups
This article investigates the response of political support for American presidents among occupational and partisan groups to economic and noneconomic events within the framework of a dynamic model of political choice. Estimates of the model reveal the relative sensitivity of different groups' political support to unemployment, inflation and the real income growth rate as well as to the Vietnam casualties, the Watergate scandal and international …
The Mass Public and Macroeconomic Performance
In every year since 1972 more than 70 percent of mass public identified an economic issue, principally inflation or unemployment, as the most important problem facing this country today. This study is motivated by belief that public opinion toward salient economic issues is an important part of domestic political environment influencing macroeconomic policy. The first few sections of article review data on public's relative aversion to inflation …
Industrial Conflict in Advanced Industrial Societies
This study focuses on strike activity during the 1950-1969 period in ten industrial societies, The first section of the paper deals with issues of strike measurement and introduces a three-dimensional characterization of strike activity which forms the basis of the subsequent statistical analyses. The next section examines postwar trends in industrial conflict in order to evaluate the argument that strike activity is "withering away" in advanced …
On the Political Economy of Long-Run Trends in Strike Activity
Outbursts of strike activity in many industrial societies during the late 1960s and early 1970s focused considerable attention on relations between labour, capital and the state in advanced capitalist systems and led to many inquiries into the sources of the ‘new’ labour militancy. The events of May–June 1968 in France, the ‘hot autumn’ of 1969 in Italy, and the nation-wide strikes of the coal miners in 1972 and 1974 in the United Kingdom (the fi…
Bread and Peace Voting in U.S. Presidential Elections
Income Distribution in the United States
Political action has affected postwar income distribution in the United States mainly through policy-induced variations in macroeconomic activity and government transfer benefits in proportion to total income. We present a small dynamic model of the connections among the partisan balance of power, macroeconomic fluctuations, transfer spending trends, and income distribution outcomes. The model is based on the premise that the parties have differe…
Public Reactions to the Growth of Taxation and Government Expenditure
Opinion poll and behavioral evidence indicates that public resistance to the growth of taxation and state expenditure has increased significantly during the last decade in many advanced industrial democracies. This paper examines trends in the magnitude, composition, and consequences of taxation and government spending in relation to cross-national patterns of popular opposition to the expansion of the welfare state in five European industrial so…
Contemporary Political Economy
Journal Article Contemporary Political Economy Get access Contemporary Political Economy. Edited by D. A. HIBBS and H. Fassbender. (Amsterdam: North-Holland, 1981. Pp. ix + 282. $39.00, Dfl 80.00.) David Austen-Smith David Austen-Smith University of York Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Scholar The Economic Journal, Volume 92, Issue 365, 1 March 1982, Pages 189–191, https://doi.org/10.2307/2232270 Published: 01 Mar…
Economic Outcomes and Political Support for British Governments among Occupational Classes
The first section of the article establishes the political salience of macroeconomic issues to the British electorate, reviews the distributional consequences of macroeconomic outcomes, and suggests that unemployment outcomes in particular have strong class-related distributional effects.The second part presents a dynamic model of how rational voters evaluate the governing party, based on the idea that voters evaluate the cumulative performance o…
Economics and Politics in France
During recent years the state of the economy has been a very salient issue for the mass publics of the industrial democracies, and the French electorate is no exception. In this article the influence of inflation, unemployment and real income growth performance on popular ‘satisfaction’ with Presidents Pompidou and Giscard d'Estaing is analysed. The empirical analyses are based on a model of qualitative political responses. The most important fea…
The American Political Economy
Journal Article The American Political Economy: Macroeconomics and Electoral Politics Get access The American Political Economy: Macroeconomics and Electoral Politics. BY DOUGLAS A. HIBBS J R . (Cambridge, Massachusetts & London: Harvard University Press, 1987. Pp. xiii + 404. £27.95, US$41.95 hardback. ISBN 0 784 02735 3.) Vani K. Borooah Vani K. Borooah University of Ulster Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Schola…
Implications of the ‘bread and peace’ model for the 2008 US presidential election
The Impact of Economic Performance on Electoral Support in Sweden, 1967–1978
This article investigates the impact of macroeconomic conditions on aggregate political support for governing parties in Sweden over the period 1967–1978. After reviewing survey evidence on the relative salience of economic and fiscal issues to the Swedish electorate, a novel, dynamic model of political support is presented. The model incorporates the ideas that voters evaluate economic performance relatively rather than absolutely, and that gove…
Market Forces, Trade Union Ideology and Trends in Swedish Wage Dispersion
Compression of the distribution of relative wages was an important goal of Sweden's central confederation of blue-collar trade unions (LO) from the mid-1960s up to the breakdown of effective central wage formation in the early 1980s. In this article I analyze LO's success in achieving its ideology of wage equality in the market by companng observed wage dispersion trends to (i) the time path of human capital dispersion and (ii) the time path of w…
Título não encontrado
Problems of Statistical Estimation and Causal Inference in Time-Series Regression Models
I am grateful to Arthur Goldberger and Robert Hall for comments on an earlier draft, to Franklin Fisher for stimulating discussions on many of the topics treated, to Samuel Popkin and Lawrence McCray for valuable editorial suggestions, and to Raisa Deber, Robert Eccles, and Takashi Inoguchi for research assistance. A timely grant from the office of Provost Walter Rosenblith covered production expenses
Obama's Reelection Prospects under “Bread and Peace” Voting in the 2012 US Presidential Election
According to the Bread and Peace Model postwar, American presidential elections should be interpreted as a sequence of referendums on the incumbent party's record during its four-year mandate period. In fact postwar aggregate votes for president are well explained by just two objectively measured fundamental determinants: (1) weighted-average growth of per capita real disposable personal income over the term, and (2) cumulative US military fatali…
Tax Toleration and Tax Compliance
How do government‐supplied institutional benefits and the taxation and regulation of producers affect the propensity of private firms to enter the unofficial economy and evade taxation? We propose a model in which the incentive of firms to operate underground depends on tax rates relative to firm‐specific thresholds of tax toleration that are decisively affected by quality of governance—in particular by the presence of high‐grade institutions del…
On Ad‐Hominem Assertion and Scientific Discourse in the Study of Sociotropic and Egocentric Motivations of Political Attitudes and Behaviour
The Bread and Peace Model
President Obama received approximately 51.5% of the two-party vote in the 2012 election. The last Bread and Peace Model forecast of Obama's vote share, based on advance estimates of 2012:quarter 3 personal income posted on October 26, 2012, by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), was 46.6%—lower than the 47.5% forecast appearing in the October issue of PS, which was based on July 27, 2012, BEA data. The Bread and Peace Model therefore underpred…
On Analyzing the Effects of Policy Inter Ventions
Rev
Mass political violence
Problems of Statistical Estimation and Causal Inference in Time-Series Regression Models
I am grateful to Arthur Goldberger and Robert Hall for comments on an earlier draft, to Franklin Fisher for stimulating discussions on many of the topics treated, to Samuel Popkin and Lawrence McCray for valuable editorial suggestions, and to Raisa Deber, Robert Eccles, and Takashi Inoguchi for research assistance. A timely grant from the office of Provost Walter Rosenblith covered production expenses
Industrial Conflict in Advanced Industrial Societies
This study focuses on strike activity during the 1950-1969 period in ten industrial societies, The first section of the paper deals with issues of strike measurement and introduces a three-dimensional characterization of strike activity which forms the basis of the subsequent statistical analyses. The next section examines postwar trends in industrial conflict in order to evaluate the argument that strike activity is "withering away" in advanced …
On Analyzing the Effects of Policy Inter Ventions
Rev
Political Parties and Macroeconomic Policy
This study examines postwar patterns in macroeconomic policies and outcomes associated with left-and right-wing governments in capitalist democracies. It argues that the objective economic interests as well as the subjective preferences of lower income and occupational status groups are best served by a relatively low unemployment-high inflation macroeconomic configuration, whereas a comparatively high unemployment-low inflation configuration is …
On the Political Economy of Long-Run Trends in Strike Activity
Outbursts of strike activity in many industrial societies during the late 1960s and early 1970s focused considerable attention on relations between labour, capital and the state in advanced capitalist systems and led to many inquiries into the sources of the ‘new’ labour militancy. The events of May–June 1968 in France, the ‘hot autumn’ of 1969 in Italy, and the nation-wide strikes of the coal miners in 1972 and 1974 in the United Kingdom (the fi…
The Mass Public and Macroeconomic Performance
In every year since 1972 more than 70 percent of mass public identified an economic issue, principally inflation or unemployment, as the most important problem facing this country today. This study is motivated by belief that public opinion toward salient economic issues is an important part of domestic political environment influencing macroeconomic policy. The first few sections of article review data on public's relative aversion to inflation …
Título não encontrado
Public Reactions to the Growth of Taxation and Government Expenditure
Opinion poll and behavioral evidence indicates that public resistance to the growth of taxation and state expenditure has increased significantly during the last decade in many advanced industrial democracies. This paper examines trends in the magnitude, composition, and consequences of taxation and government spending in relation to cross-national patterns of popular opposition to the expansion of the welfare state in five European industrial so…
The Impact of Economic Performance on Electoral Support in Sweden, 1967–1978
This article investigates the impact of macroeconomic conditions on aggregate political support for governing parties in Sweden over the period 1967–1978. After reviewing survey evidence on the relative salience of economic and fiscal issues to the Swedish electorate, a novel, dynamic model of political support is presented. The model incorporates the ideas that voters evaluate economic performance relatively rather than absolutely, and that gove…
Economics and Politics in France
During recent years the state of the economy has been a very salient issue for the mass publics of the industrial democracies, and the French electorate is no exception. In this article the influence of inflation, unemployment and real income growth performance on popular ‘satisfaction’ with Presidents Pompidou and Giscard d'Estaing is analysed. The empirical analyses are based on a model of qualitative political responses. The most important fea…
More on Economic Performance and Political Support in Britain
I am flattered that a political scientist of William Keech's caliber uses words such as ingenious and outstanding to describe my work. I am also grateful that he took the time and was given the opportunity by the Review to show the implications of my theory of political support for a stylized case where unmeasured sources of support for British governments among the occupational classes are nil (a qj = 0), the only performance variable valued by …
Contemporary Political Economy
Journal Article Contemporary Political Economy Get access Contemporary Political Economy. Edited by D. A. HIBBS and H. Fassbender. (Amsterdam: North-Holland, 1981. Pp. ix + 282. $39.00, Dfl 80.00.) David Austen-Smith David Austen-Smith University of York Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Scholar The Economic Journal, Volume 92, Issue 365, 1 March 1982, Pages 189–191, https://doi.org/10.2307/2232270 Published: 01 Mar…
On the Demand for Economic Outcomes
The Dynamics of Political Support for American Presidents Among Occupational and Partisan Groups
This article investigates the response of political support for American presidents among occupational and partisan groups to economic and noneconomic events within the framework of a dynamic model of political choice. Estimates of the model reveal the relative sensitivity of different groups' political support to unemployment, inflation and the real income growth rate as well as to the Vietnam casualties, the Watergate scandal and international …
Economic Outcomes and Political Support for British Governments among Occupational Classes
The first section of the article establishes the political salience of macroeconomic issues to the British electorate, reviews the distributional consequences of macroeconomic outcomes, and suggests that unemployment outcomes in particular have strong class-related distributional effects.The second part presents a dynamic model of how rational voters evaluate the governing party, based on the idea that voters evaluate the cumulative performance o…
The Political Economy of Industrial Democracies
The American Political Economy
The American Political Economy
Journal Article The American Political Economy: Macroeconomics and Electoral Politics Get access The American Political Economy: Macroeconomics and Electoral Politics. BY DOUGLAS A. HIBBS J R . (Cambridge, Massachusetts & London: Harvard University Press, 1987. Pp. xiii + 404. £27.95, US$41.95 hardback. ISBN 0 784 02735 3.) Vani K. Borooah Vani K. Borooah University of Ulster Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Schola…
Income Distribution in the United States
Political action has affected postwar income distribution in the United States mainly through policy-induced variations in macroeconomic activity and government transfer benefits in proportion to total income. We present a small dynamic model of the connections among the partisan balance of power, macroeconomic fluctuations, transfer spending trends, and income distribution outcomes. The model is based on the premise that the parties have differe…
The Personal Vote
Market Forces, Trade Union Ideology and Trends in Swedish Wage Dispersion
Compression of the distribution of relative wages was an important goal of Sweden's central confederation of blue-collar trade unions (LO) from the mid-1960s up to the breakdown of effective central wage formation in the early 1980s. In this article I analyze LO's success in achieving its ideology of wage equality in the market by companng observed wage dispersion trends to (i) the time path of human capital dispersion and (ii) the time path of w…
Partisan theory after fifteen years
On Ad‐Hominem Assertion and Scientific Discourse in the Study of Sociotropic and Egocentric Motivations of Political Attitudes and Behaviour
Bread and Peace Voting in U.S. Presidential Elections
Economics (29 works) · Political science (26 works) · Politics (23 works) · Law (17 works) · Fiscal Policies and Political Economy (16 works) · Political economy (13 works) · Electoral Systems and Political Participation (10 works) · Law (10 works) · Macroeconomics (10 works) · Social Policy and Reform Studies (8 works)