Michel Guillot
Biographic Data
| ID | 298715 |
|---|---|
| NAME | Michel Guillot |
| GIVEN NAMES | Michel |
| FAMILY NAME | Guillot |
| SIGNATURE | GUILLOT M |
| AFFILIATIONS | University of Pennsylvania |
| ORCID | 0000-0001-5142-6835 |
| VERIFIED | Yes |
| TOTAL WORKS | 33 |
| TOTAL CITATIONS | 288 |
| AUTHOR COUNT | 33 |
| EDITOR COUNT | 0 |
| FIRST PUBLICATION YEAR | 1990 |
| LATEST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2026 |
| H-INDEX | 8 |
Female Education and Fertility Transitions in Ghana
Spatial Inequalities in the Completeness of Under Five Deaths: Assessing Vital Registration Data in Türkiye
The neonatal, infant and under‐5 mortality rates are important indicators of child health used by countries to monitor their health policies and for international comparisons. Coverage and completeness of registration systems are critical for the quality of these indicators. However, under registration of deaths is still a major problem today, especially where registration systems are still in the process of being established, particularly in low…
Estimating 1 a 0 and 4 a 1 in a Life Table: A Model Approach Based on Newly Collected Data
The average age of infant deaths, a10, and the average number of years lived—in the age interval—by those dying between ages 1 and 5, a41, are important quantities allowing the construction of any life table including these ages. In many applications, the direct calculation of these parameters is not possible, so they are estimated using the infant mortality rate—or the death rate from 0 to 1—as a predictor. Existing methods are general approxima…
L’évaluation professionnelle du magistrat et sa prime modulable
L’évaluation professionnelle des magistrats judiciaires et la prime modulable attribuée en fonction de leur contribution au bon fonctionnement de l’institution judiciaire sont deux dispositifs censés concourir à une plus grande efficacité de la justice et à une meilleure équité dans l’allocation des ressources. Il convient, dès lors, d’interroger leur pertinence au regard des objectifs poursuivis et à l’aune du principe d’indépendance qui gouvern…
Return Migration Selection and Its Impact on the Migrant Mortality Advantage: New Evidence Using French Pension Data
The migrant mortality advantage (MMA) has been observed in many immigrant-receiving countries, but its underlying factors remain poorly understood. This article examines the role of return migration selection effects in explaining the MMA among males aged 65+ using a rich, unique dataset from France. This dataset contains information on native-born and foreign-born pensioners who are tracked worldwide until they die, providing a rare opportunity …
Global, regional, and national trends in under-5 mortality between 1990 and 2019 with scenario-based projections until 2030: A systematic analysis by the UN Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Esti…
BACKGROUND: The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), set in 2015 by the UN General Assembly, call for all countries to reach an under-5 mortality rate (U5MR) of at least as low as 25 deaths per 1000 livebirths and a neonatal mortality rate (NMR) of at least as low as 12 deaths per 1000 livebirths by 2030. We estimated levels and trends in under-5 mortality for 195 countries from 1990 to 2019, and conducted scenario-based projections of the U5MR …
Modeling Age Patterns of Under-5 Mortality: Results From a Log-Quadratic Model Applied to High-Quality Vital Registration Data
Information about how the risk of death varies with age within the 0–5 age range represents critical evidence for guiding health policy. This study proposes a new model for summarizing regularities about how under-5 mortality is distributed by detailed age. The model is based on a newly compiled database that contains under-5 mortality information by detailed age in countries with high-quality vital registration systems, covering a wide array of …
Growing up and moving out: Migration and the demographic transition in low- and middle-income nations
International migration has increased since 1990, with increasing numbers of migrants originating from low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Efforts to explain this compositional shift have focused on wage gaps and other push and pull factors but have not adequately considered the role of demographic factors. In many LMICs, child mortality has fallen without commensurate economic growth and amid high fertility. This combination increases youn…
Impact of the Covid-19 crisis on the mortality profiles of the foreign-born in France during the first pandemic wave
Magnitude, demographics and dynamics of the effect of the first wave of the Covid-19 pandemic on all-cause mortality in 21 industrialized countries
Divergent mortality patterns for second generation men of North-African and South-European origin in France: Role of labour force participation
The findings shed light on the salient role of labor market disadvantage in the explanation of the mortality excess of second generation men of North-African origin in France, and on the favorable situation of second-generation men of South-European origin in terms of labour market position and mortality. The theoretical and policy implications of the findings are discussed
Mortality advantage among migrants according to duration of stay in France, 2004–2014
Our novel findings show an intrinsic pattern of convergence of migrant mortality towards native-born mortality over time spent in France, independent from the ages at which mortality is measured. The consistent pattern in both genders suggests that males and females experience the same processes associated with generating the migrant mortality advantage. These patterns adhere to the selection-acculturation hypothesis and raise serious concerns ab…
Tracking progress in mean longevity: The Lagged Cohort Life Expectancy (LCLE) approach
Cohort life expectancy is an important but rarely used indicator of mean longevity. In this paper, we show that there are specific advantages in lagging this indicator in time by its own value, an approach termed Lagged Cohort Life Expectancy (LCLE). We discuss the usefulness of LCLE as an indicator for tracking progress in mean longevity and introduce a new interpretation of LCLE as a reference age separating 'early' deaths from 'late' deaths, o…
Adult mortality among second-generation immigrants in France: Results from a nationally representative record linkage study
BACKGROUND: France has a large population of second-generation immigrants (i.e., native-born children of immigrants) who are known to experience important socioeconomic disparities by country of origin. The extent to which they also experience disparities in mortality, however, has not been previously examined. METHODS: We used a nationally representative sample of individuals 18 to 64 years old in 1999 with mortality follow-up via linked death r…
Adult mortality patterns in the former Soviet Union's southern tier: Armenia and Georgia in comparative perspective
BACKGROUND: While the health crisis in the former USSR has been well-documented in the case of Russia and other northern former Soviet republics, little is known about countries located in the southern tier of the region, i.e., the Caucasus and Central Asia. OBJECTIVE: This paper presents new mortality information from two Caucasian countries, Georgia and Armenia. Results are compared with information from two relevant countries previously examin…
Multistate Transition Models in Demography
Truncated cross-sectional average length of life: A measure for comparing the mortality history of cohorts
Period life expectancies are commonly used to compare populations, but these correspond to simple juxtapositions of current mortality levels. In order to construct life expectancies for cohorts, a complete historical series of mortality rates is needed, and these are available for only a subset of developed countries. The truncated cross-sectional average length of life (TCAL) is a new measure that captures historical information about all cohort…
Tools for Demographic Estimation
Archined est l’archive ouverte institutionnelle et la base patrimoniale des publications, communications et autres travaux scientifiques produits par les chercheur.e.s, y compris les chercheur.e.s associé.e.s, et ingénieur.e.s de l’Ined
Infant mortality in Kyrgyzstan before and after the break-up of the Soviet Union
There is a great deal of uncertainty over the levels of, and trends in, infant mortality in the former Soviet republics of Central Asia. As a result, the impact of the break-up of the Soviet Union on infant mortality in the region is not known, and proper monitoring of mortality levels is impaired. In this paper, a variety of data sources and methods are used to assess levels of infant mortality and their trend over time in one Central Asian repu…
Understanding the “Russian Mortality Paradox” in Central Asia: Evidence from Kyrgyzstan
In the former Soviet republics of central Asia, ethnic Russians have exhibited higher adult mortality than native ethnic groups (e.g., Kazakh, Kyrgyz, Uzbek) in spite of the higher socioeconomic status of ethnic Russians. The mortality disadvantage of ethnic Russians at adult ages appears to have even increased since the breakup of the Soviet Union. The most common explanation for this “Russian mortality paradox,” is that deaths are better report…
On the correspondence between CAL and lagged cohort life expectancy
It has been established that under certain mortality assumptions, the current value of the Cross-sectional Average length of Life (CAL) is equal to the life expectancy for the cohort currently reaching its life expectancy. This correspondence is important, because the life expectancy for the cohort currently reaching its life expectancy, or lagged cohort life expectancy (LCLE), has been discussed in the tempo literature as a summary mortality mea…
Estimating health expectancies from two cross-sectional surveys: The intercensal method
Health expectancies are key indicators for monitoring the health of populations, as well as for informing debates about compression or expansion of morbidity. However, current methodologies for estimating them are not entirely satisfactory. They are either of limited applicability due to high data requirements (the multistate method) or based upon questionable assumptions (the Sullivan method).This paper proposes a new method, called the "interce…
The effect of changes in fertility on the age distribution of stable populations
When fertility increases in a previously stable population, the new stable population will be younger than the old one, and the two age distributions will cross at the mean age of the populations
Mortality in Kyrgyzstan since 1958: Real Patterns and Data Artifacts
Les niveaux, tendances, et différentiels de mortalité en Asie centrale ex-Soviétique font l’objet d’une grande incertitude. Cet article utilise des données brutes non-publiées portant sur le Kirghizstan depuis 1958, afin d’examiner les incohérences apparentes présentes dans les données enregistrées au niveau national, et de formuler de nouvelles conclusions quant aux tendances réelles de la mortalité dans la région. Sur la base de comparaisons in…
Tempo effects in mortality: An appraisal
This study examines the existence of tempo effects in mortality and evaluates the procedure developed by Bongaarts and Feeney for calculating a tempo-adjusted life expectancy. It is shown that Bongaarts and Feeney's index can be interpreted as an indi
Demography, Measuring and Modeling Population Processes
The cross-sectional average length of life (CAL): A cross-sectional mortality measure that reflects the experience of cohorts
This paper presents a summary mortality index, the cross-sectional average length of life (CAL). By combining the mortality experience of various cohorts in a cross-sectional fashion, CAL complements traditional one-period or one-cohort indexes and enriches our understanding of population processes. First, CAL provides an alternative insight into the analysis of mortality. By taking into account the real mortality conditions to which individuals …
Modified logit life table system: Principles, Empirical Validation, and Application
Despite its widespread use, the Coale-Demeny model life table system does not capture the extensive variation in age-specific mortality patterns observed in contemporary populations, particularly those of the countries of Eastern Europe and populations affected by HIV/AIDS. Although relational mortality models, such as the Brass logit system, can identify these variations, these models show systematic bias in their predictive ability as mortality…
Truncated cross-sectional average length of life: A measure for comparing the mortality history of cohorts
Period life expectancies are commonly used to compare populations, but these correspond to simple juxtapositions of current mortality levels. In order to construct life expectancies for cohorts, a complete historical series of mortality rates is needed, and these are available for only a subset of developed countries. The truncated cross-sectional average length of life (TCAL) is a new measure that captures historical information about all cohort…
Tempo effects in mortality: An appraisal
This study examines the existence of tempo effects in mortality and evaluates the procedure developed by Bongaarts and Feeney for calculating a tempo-adjusted life expectancy. It is shown that Bongaarts and Feeney's index can be interpreted as an indi
Tracking progress in mean longevity: The Lagged Cohort Life Expectancy (LCLE) approach
Cohort life expectancy is an important but rarely used indicator of mean longevity. In this paper, we show that there are specific advantages in lagging this indicator in time by its own value, an approach termed Lagged Cohort Life Expectancy (LCLE). We discuss the usefulness of LCLE as an indicator for tracking progress in mean longevity and introduce a new interpretation of LCLE as a reference age separating 'early' deaths from 'late' deaths, o…
The dynamics of the population sex ratio in India, 1971-96
This paper reconstructs the trend in the population sex ratio in India between 1971 ad 1996 from available information on changes in sex differentials in mortality in the country since the beginning of the century. It is estimated that, although the mortality of females relative to that of males in India has improved since 1968, the population sex ratio increased between 1971 and 1981, stayed constant between 1981 and 1991, and started to decreas…
Understanding the “Russian Mortality Paradox” in Central Asia: Evidence from Kyrgyzstan
In the former Soviet republics of central Asia, ethnic Russians have exhibited higher adult mortality than native ethnic groups (e.g., Kazakh, Kyrgyz, Uzbek) in spite of the higher socioeconomic status of ethnic Russians. The mortality disadvantage of ethnic Russians at adult ages appears to have even increased since the breakup of the Soviet Union. The most common explanation for this “Russian mortality paradox,” is that deaths are better report…
The uneven tides of the health transition
Impact of the Covid-19 crisis on the mortality profiles of the foreign-born in France during the first pandemic wave
Return Migration Selection and Its Impact on the Migrant Mortality Advantage: New Evidence Using French Pension Data
The migrant mortality advantage (MMA) has been observed in many immigrant-receiving countries, but its underlying factors remain poorly understood. This article examines the role of return migration selection effects in explaining the MMA among males aged 65+ using a rich, unique dataset from France. This dataset contains information on native-born and foreign-born pensioners who are tracked worldwide until they die, providing a rare opportunity …
On the correspondence between CAL and lagged cohort life expectancy
It has been established that under certain mortality assumptions, the current value of the Cross-sectional Average length of Life (CAL) is equal to the life expectancy for the cohort currently reaching its life expectancy. This correspondence is important, because the life expectancy for the cohort currently reaching its life expectancy, or lagged cohort life expectancy (LCLE), has been discussed in the tempo literature as a summary mortality mea…
The momentum of mortality change
Mortality change is not usually assigned much importance as a source of population growth when future population trends are discussed. Yet it can make a significant contribution to population momentum. In populations that have experienced mortality change, cohort survivorship will continue varying for some time even if period mortality rates become constant. This continuing change in cohort survivorship can create a significant degree of mortalit…
Modeling Age Patterns of Under-5 Mortality: Results From a Log-Quadratic Model Applied to High-Quality Vital Registration Data
Information about how the risk of death varies with age within the 0–5 age range represents critical evidence for guiding health policy. This study proposes a new model for summarizing regularities about how under-5 mortality is distributed by detailed age. The model is based on a newly compiled database that contains under-5 mortality information by detailed age in countries with high-quality vital registration systems, covering a wide array of …
Estimating health expectancies from two cross-sectional surveys: The intercensal method
Health expectancies are key indicators for monitoring the health of populations, as well as for informing debates about compression or expansion of morbidity. However, current methodologies for estimating them are not entirely satisfactory. They are either of limited applicability due to high data requirements (the multistate method) or based upon questionable assumptions (the Sullivan method).This paper proposes a new method, called the "interce…
Adult mortality among second-generation immigrants in France: Results from a nationally representative record linkage study
BACKGROUND: France has a large population of second-generation immigrants (i.e., native-born children of immigrants) who are known to experience important socioeconomic disparities by country of origin. The extent to which they also experience disparities in mortality, however, has not been previously examined. METHODS: We used a nationally representative sample of individuals 18 to 64 years old in 1999 with mortality follow-up via linked death r…
Growing up and moving out: Migration and the demographic transition in low- and middle-income nations
International migration has increased since 1990, with increasing numbers of migrants originating from low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Efforts to explain this compositional shift have focused on wage gaps and other push and pull factors but have not adequately considered the role of demographic factors. In many LMICs, child mortality has fallen without commensurate economic growth and amid high fertility. This combination increases youn…
Adult mortality patterns in the former Soviet Union's southern tier: Armenia and Georgia in comparative perspective
BACKGROUND: While the health crisis in the former USSR has been well-documented in the case of Russia and other northern former Soviet republics, little is known about countries located in the southern tier of the region, i.e., the Caucasus and Central Asia. OBJECTIVE: This paper presents new mortality information from two Caucasian countries, Georgia and Armenia. Results are compared with information from two relevant countries previously examin…
Infant mortality in Kyrgyzstan before and after the break-up of the Soviet Union
There is a great deal of uncertainty over the levels of, and trends in, infant mortality in the former Soviet republics of Central Asia. As a result, the impact of the break-up of the Soviet Union on infant mortality in the region is not known, and proper monitoring of mortality levels is impaired. In this paper, a variety of data sources and methods are used to assess levels of infant mortality and their trend over time in one Central Asian repu…
The effect of changes in fertility on the age distribution of stable populations
When fertility increases in a previously stable population, the new stable population will be younger than the old one, and the two age distributions will cross at the mean age of the populations
La fonction projet, de l’entreprise au développement local
The «Function-Project» : from its Introduction in the Enterprise to its use in Local Development The «function-project» instituted within enterprises at the end of the 1950s designates a special overseeing task force whose mission was to make sure that goods and services about to be produced are finally manufactured according to such technical specifications as cost, deadlines and quality. Local economy, made up of separated units having their ow…
L’accompagnement de projet: Les grands chantiers d’aménagement du territoire
Complementary Measures to the Project : Large-Scale Building Site within the Framework of the Country Planning Program Created in 1975, the program of «construction sites within the framework of country planning» involved almost exclusively the construction sites within the nuclear field. Such a program, adjusted and improved upon with time, aims at promoting a better reception for transfered workers, the use of local manpower through professiona…
The uneven tides of the health transition
The dynamics of the population sex ratio in India, 1971-96
This paper reconstructs the trend in the population sex ratio in India between 1971 ad 1996 from available information on changes in sex differentials in mortality in the country since the beginning of the century. It is estimated that, although the mortality of females relative to that of males in India has improved since 1968, the population sex ratio increased between 1971 and 1981, stayed constant between 1981 and 1991, and started to decreas…
Demography, Measuring and Modeling Population Processes
Modified logit life table system: Principles, Empirical Validation, and Application
Despite its widespread use, the Coale-Demeny model life table system does not capture the extensive variation in age-specific mortality patterns observed in contemporary populations, particularly those of the countries of Eastern Europe and populations affected by HIV/AIDS. Although relational mortality models, such as the Brass logit system, can identify these variations, these models show systematic bias in their predictive ability as mortality…
The cross-sectional average length of life (CAL): A cross-sectional mortality measure that reflects the experience of cohorts
This paper presents a summary mortality index, the cross-sectional average length of life (CAL). By combining the mortality experience of various cohorts in a cross-sectional fashion, CAL complements traditional one-period or one-cohort indexes and enriches our understanding of population processes. First, CAL provides an alternative insight into the analysis of mortality. By taking into account the real mortality conditions to which individuals …
The momentum of mortality change
Mortality change is not usually assigned much importance as a source of population growth when future population trends are discussed. Yet it can make a significant contribution to population momentum. In populations that have experienced mortality change, cohort survivorship will continue varying for some time even if period mortality rates become constant. This continuing change in cohort survivorship can create a significant degree of mortalit…
Tempo effects in mortality: An appraisal
This study examines the existence of tempo effects in mortality and evaluates the procedure developed by Bongaarts and Feeney for calculating a tempo-adjusted life expectancy. It is shown that Bongaarts and Feeney's index can be interpreted as an indi
Mortality in Kyrgyzstan since 1958: Real Patterns and Data Artifacts
Les niveaux, tendances, et différentiels de mortalité en Asie centrale ex-Soviétique font l’objet d’une grande incertitude. Cet article utilise des données brutes non-publiées portant sur le Kirghizstan depuis 1958, afin d’examiner les incohérences apparentes présentes dans les données enregistrées au niveau national, et de formuler de nouvelles conclusions quant aux tendances réelles de la mortalité dans la région. Sur la base de comparaisons in…
Estimating health expectancies from two cross-sectional surveys: The intercensal method
Health expectancies are key indicators for monitoring the health of populations, as well as for informing debates about compression or expansion of morbidity. However, current methodologies for estimating them are not entirely satisfactory. They are either of limited applicability due to high data requirements (the multistate method) or based upon questionable assumptions (the Sullivan method).This paper proposes a new method, called the "interce…
The effect of changes in fertility on the age distribution of stable populations
When fertility increases in a previously stable population, the new stable population will be younger than the old one, and the two age distributions will cross at the mean age of the populations
Understanding the “Russian Mortality Paradox” in Central Asia: Evidence from Kyrgyzstan
In the former Soviet republics of central Asia, ethnic Russians have exhibited higher adult mortality than native ethnic groups (e.g., Kazakh, Kyrgyz, Uzbek) in spite of the higher socioeconomic status of ethnic Russians. The mortality disadvantage of ethnic Russians at adult ages appears to have even increased since the breakup of the Soviet Union. The most common explanation for this “Russian mortality paradox,” is that deaths are better report…
On the correspondence between CAL and lagged cohort life expectancy
It has been established that under certain mortality assumptions, the current value of the Cross-sectional Average length of Life (CAL) is equal to the life expectancy for the cohort currently reaching its life expectancy. This correspondence is important, because the life expectancy for the cohort currently reaching its life expectancy, or lagged cohort life expectancy (LCLE), has been discussed in the tempo literature as a summary mortality mea…
Infant mortality in Kyrgyzstan before and after the break-up of the Soviet Union
There is a great deal of uncertainty over the levels of, and trends in, infant mortality in the former Soviet republics of Central Asia. As a result, the impact of the break-up of the Soviet Union on infant mortality in the region is not known, and proper monitoring of mortality levels is impaired. In this paper, a variety of data sources and methods are used to assess levels of infant mortality and their trend over time in one Central Asian repu…
Multistate Transition Models in Demography
Truncated cross-sectional average length of life: A measure for comparing the mortality history of cohorts
Period life expectancies are commonly used to compare populations, but these correspond to simple juxtapositions of current mortality levels. In order to construct life expectancies for cohorts, a complete historical series of mortality rates is needed, and these are available for only a subset of developed countries. The truncated cross-sectional average length of life (TCAL) is a new measure that captures historical information about all cohort…
Tools for Demographic Estimation
Archined est l’archive ouverte institutionnelle et la base patrimoniale des publications, communications et autres travaux scientifiques produits par les chercheur.e.s, y compris les chercheur.e.s associé.e.s, et ingénieur.e.s de l’Ined
Adult mortality patterns in the former Soviet Union's southern tier: Armenia and Georgia in comparative perspective
BACKGROUND: While the health crisis in the former USSR has been well-documented in the case of Russia and other northern former Soviet republics, little is known about countries located in the southern tier of the region, i.e., the Caucasus and Central Asia. OBJECTIVE: This paper presents new mortality information from two Caucasian countries, Georgia and Armenia. Results are compared with information from two relevant countries previously examin…
Divergent mortality patterns for second generation men of North-African and South-European origin in France: Role of labour force participation
The findings shed light on the salient role of labor market disadvantage in the explanation of the mortality excess of second generation men of North-African origin in France, and on the favorable situation of second-generation men of South-European origin in terms of labour market position and mortality. The theoretical and policy implications of the findings are discussed
Mortality advantage among migrants according to duration of stay in France, 2004–2014
Our novel findings show an intrinsic pattern of convergence of migrant mortality towards native-born mortality over time spent in France, independent from the ages at which mortality is measured. The consistent pattern in both genders suggests that males and females experience the same processes associated with generating the migrant mortality advantage. These patterns adhere to the selection-acculturation hypothesis and raise serious concerns ab…
Tracking progress in mean longevity: The Lagged Cohort Life Expectancy (LCLE) approach
Cohort life expectancy is an important but rarely used indicator of mean longevity. In this paper, we show that there are specific advantages in lagging this indicator in time by its own value, an approach termed Lagged Cohort Life Expectancy (LCLE). We discuss the usefulness of LCLE as an indicator for tracking progress in mean longevity and introduce a new interpretation of LCLE as a reference age separating 'early' deaths from 'late' deaths, o…
Adult mortality among second-generation immigrants in France: Results from a nationally representative record linkage study
BACKGROUND: France has a large population of second-generation immigrants (i.e., native-born children of immigrants) who are known to experience important socioeconomic disparities by country of origin. The extent to which they also experience disparities in mortality, however, has not been previously examined. METHODS: We used a nationally representative sample of individuals 18 to 64 years old in 1999 with mortality follow-up via linked death r…
Magnitude, demographics and dynamics of the effect of the first wave of the Covid-19 pandemic on all-cause mortality in 21 industrialized countries
Global, regional, and national trends in under-5 mortality between 1990 and 2019 with scenario-based projections until 2030: A systematic analysis by the UN Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Esti…
BACKGROUND: The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), set in 2015 by the UN General Assembly, call for all countries to reach an under-5 mortality rate (U5MR) of at least as low as 25 deaths per 1000 livebirths and a neonatal mortality rate (NMR) of at least as low as 12 deaths per 1000 livebirths by 2030. We estimated levels and trends in under-5 mortality for 195 countries from 1990 to 2019, and conducted scenario-based projections of the U5MR …
Demography (25 works) · Population (18 works) · Sociology (18 works) · Economics (17 works) · Global Health Care Issues (17 works) · Geography (16 works) · Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management (16 works) · Mathematics (13 works) · Medicine (13 works) · Demography (10 works)