Alan Kirman
Datos Biográficos
| ID | 299582 |
|---|---|
| NOMBRE | Alan Kirman |
| NOMBRES | Alan |
| APELLIDO | Kirman |
| FIRMA | KIRMAN A |
| AFILIACIONES | Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques |
| ORCID | 0000-0002-4152-6522 |
| VERIFICADO | Sí |
| TOTAL DE OBRAS | 96 |
| TOTAL DE CITAS | 321 |
| TOTAL COMO AUTOR | 90 |
| TOTAL COMO EDITOR | 7 |
| PRIMER AÑO DE PUBLICACIÓN | 1973 |
| AÑO MÁS RECIENTE DE PUBLICACIÓN | 2025 |
| ÍNDICE H | 6 |
Forecasting and policy when “we simply do not know”
Systemic Risk in Banking, Fire Sales, and Macroeconomic Disasters
Systemic Risk in Banking, Fire Sales, and Macroeconomic Disasters
Systemic risk in banking, fire sales, and macroeconomic disasters
We develop a dynamic computational network model of the banking system where fire sales provide the amplification mechanism of financial shocks. Each period a finite number of banks offers a large, but finite, number of loans to households. Banks with excess liquidity also offer loans to other banks with insufficient liquidity. Thus, each period an interbank loan market is endogenously formed. Bank assets are hit by idiosyncratic shocks drawn fro…
Overcoming a legacy of racial discrimination
Because discrimination is systemic, efforts to counter it must also be systemic. The South African case is instructive because it is extreme: Apartheid deliberately excluded the majority of the population, Black South Africans, from fully participating in society, but post-Apartheid efforts to achieve transformation have had limited success. This article examines the university system, where transformation involves increasing the size of the syst…
A Systemic Approach to Economic Resilience
The Global Financial and COVID-19 crisis highlighted the complexity, interconnectedness, and fragility of the human-made systems on which we all depend such as financial markets, global value chains, and health systems. Understanding the design, operation, and management of these systems through the lens of economic analysis places an emphasis on efficiency and optimal performance. However, less attention is paid to their other systemic propertie…
Unorthodox Economic Dynamics
This is a tribute to Dick Day, who had a vision of economics which was ahead of his time. I give a short personal account of those of his interests: economic dynamics, rationality, the applications of catastrophe theory and computational models. I describe the interests that we had in common, particularly in learning and herd behavior. He was a worthy member of the distinguished and pioneering group which included Herb Simon and Reinhard Selten
Rational expectations in a changing world
Les anticipations permettent de s’intéresser à ce qui va advenir dans le futur comme elles peuvent être totalement déconnectées de toute dimension temporelle. Dans les deux cas, elles occupent une place fondamentale en science économique. Quand on cherche à savoir comment une économie va évoluer au cours du temps, on est forcé d’émettre des hypothèses sur les modalités selon lesquelles les agents qui prennent les décisions économiques anticipent …
Walras or Pareto
Walras and Pareto are considered founders of the Ecole de Lausanne. However, their points of view on economics as a science were at considerable variance and their appreciation of each other was limited. On the path from Adam Smith’s Invisible Hand to Arrow and Debreu’s proof of the existence of equilibrium, Walras is thought of as having formulated the general equilibrium model and Pareto as having improved upon and advanced theory and economics…
From Ants to Fishing Vessels
Epidemics of rules, rational negligence and market crashes
Structural changes in an economy or in financial markets can arise as a result of agents adopting rules that appear to be the norm around them. Such rules are adopted by implicit consensus as they turn out to be profitable for individuals. However, as rules develop and spread they may have consequences at the aggregate level which are not anticipated by individuals. To illustrate this, we develop a simple model, motivated by the 2007–2008 crisis …
Introduction to the special issue on “New macroeconomic perspectives on inequality, credit, and stability”
From paleoclimate variables to prehistoric agriculture
The Economy as a Complex Spatial System
This collected volume represents the final outcome of the COST Action IS1104 “The EU in the new complex geography of economic systems: models, tools and
Exploration vs Exploitation, Impulse Balance Equilibrium, and a Specification Test for the El Farol Bar Problem
Exploration vs Exploitation, Impulse Balance Equilibrium, and a Specification Test for the El Farol Bar Problem
Beyond DSGE Models
This paper argues that macro models should be as simple as possible, but not more so. Existing models are “more so” by far. It is time for the science of macro to step beyond representative agent, DSGE models and focus more on alternative heterogeneous agent macro models that take agent interaction, complexity, coordination problems and endogenous learning seriously. It further argues that as analytic work on these scientific models continues, po…
Observational and reinforcement pattern-learning
Reaching the human scale
The Economy as a Complex Spatial System
economic geography; systemic risk; heterogeneous agents; complex networks analysis; multinational enterprises; spatial econometrics; COST Action IS1104
The Economy as a Complex System
Economic Foundations for Social Complexity Science
Retrospectives
Friedrich A. Hayek (1899-1992) is known for his vision of the market economy as an information processing system characterized by spontaneous order: the emergence of coherence through the independent actions of large numbers of individuals, each with limited and local knowledge, coordinated by prices that arise from decentralized processes of competition. Hayek is also known for his advocacy of a broad range of free market policies and, indeed, c…
Complexity and Evolution
Two widely heralded yet contested approaches to economics have emerged in recent years. One follows an older, rather neglected approach which emphasizes evolutionary theory in terms of individuals and institutions. The other emphasizes economies as complex adaptive systems. Important concepts from evolutionary theory include the distinction between proximate and ultimate causation, multilevel selection, cultural change as an evolutionary process,…
The Microeconomic Foundations of Instability in Financial Markets
Reconceptualizing the 'Anthropos' in the Anthropocene
Whom or What Does the Representative Individual Represent
Macroeconomic models often assume that the choices of all the diverse agents in one sector- consumers for example-can be considered as the choices of one "representative" standard utility maximizing individual whose choices coincide with the aggregate choices of the heterogeneous individuals. My basic point is that the reduction of the behavior of a group of heterogeneous agents even if they are all themselves utility maximizers, is not simply an…
The Financial Crisis and the Systemic Failure of the Economics Profession
Economists not only failed to anticipate the financial crisis; they may have contributed to it—with risk and derivatives models that, through spurious precision and untested theoretical assumptions, encouraged policy makers and market participants to see more stability and risk sharing than was actually present. Moreover, once the crisis occurred, it was met with incomprehension by most economists because of models that, on the one hand, downplay…
The Intrinsic Limits of Modern Economic Theory
Journal Article The Intrinsic Limits of Modern Economic Theory: The Emperor has No Clothes Get access Alan Kirman Alan Kirman European University Institute, Florence Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Scholar The Economic Journal, Volume 99, Issue 395, 1 April 1989, Pages 126–139, https://doi.org/10.2307/2234075 Published: 01 March 1989
Demand Theory and General Equilibrium
Gerard Debreu symbolizes the use of a new mathematical apparatus, an apparatus comprehended by most economists only abstractly. Nevertheless, his work has given us an improved intuitive under- standing of the underlying economic relevance. His clarity and ana- lytical rigor, as well as the distinction drawn by him between an eco- nomic theory and its interpretation, have given his work important bearing on the choice of methods and analytical tec…
Reaching the human scale
Economic Complexity
Journal Article Economic Complexity: Chaos, Sunspots, Bubbles, and Nonlinearity Get access Economic Complexity: Chaos, Sunspots, Bubbles, and Nonlinearily. Edited by A. BARNETT WILLIAM, JOHN GEWEKE and KARL SHELL. (Cambridge and New York: Cambridge University Press, 1989. Pp. xi + 409. £30.00 hardback, US $49.50 hardback. ISBN 0 521 35563 X). Alan Kirman Alan Kirman European University Institute, Florence Search for other works by this author on:…
Market Organisation and Trading Relationships
In this paper we give a theoretical model of buyers' behaviour on a market for a perishable good where no prices are posted. We show that if buyers learn from their own previous experience there is a sharp division between those who learn to be loyal to certain sellers and those who continue to "shop around". This feature remains in more general models which are simulated and is consistent with empirical data from the Marseille fish market
Do markets foster selfishness
L’agent économique est souvent par définition considéré comme un pur égoïste. Plus encore, son utilité est définie sur ce qu’il consomme et elle est considérée comme monotone – ce que nous appelons être « égoïste ». Dans cet article, nous nous intéressons à l’hypothèse selon laquelle le marché conduit les individus à être égoïstes. Nous avançons tout d’abord que la théorie économique n’est pas limitée à considérer des agents économiques égoïstes …
A comment on « low levels of ethnic intolerance do not create large ghettos » by Michel Forsé and Maxime Parodi
Schelling’s model of segregation has long been considered a para-digmatic example of emergent behavior, as in the model seemingly tolerant individual choices produce complete racial segregation. The Forsé and Parodi article takes issue with both the mathematical and substantive characterization of Schelling’s model. At a mathematical level, they argue that the model’s behavior is not emergent, paradoxical, non-linear or otherwise complex. Instead…
Trade Diverting Customs Unions and Welfare Improvement
Journal Article Trade Diverting Customs Unions and Welfare Improvement: A Comment Get access Alan P. Kirman Alan P. Kirman C.O.R.E. and Free University of Brussels Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Scholar The Economic Journal, Volume 83, Issue 331, 1 September 1973, Pages 890–894, https://doi.org/10.2307/2230681 Published: 01 September 1973
Retrospectives
Friedrich A. Hayek (1899-1992) is known for his vision of the market economy as an information processing system characterized by spontaneous order: the emergence of coherence through the independent actions of large numbers of individuals, each with limited and local knowledge, coordinated by prices that arise from decentralized processes of competition. Hayek is also known for his advocacy of a broad range of free market policies and, indeed, c…
Is it rational to have rational expectations
La théorie économique dans la crise
La crise a mis en évidence la distance importante qui existe entre la théorie économique et les phénomènes qu’elle est censée expliquer. Je donne quelques explications historiques de cette divergence entre la théorie et la réalité. Puis je discute de la solidité des fondements de la théorie de l’équilibre général et de l’économie financière et les raisons pour lesquelles nos modèles n’incorporent pas la possibilité d’une crise. Je suggère quelque…
Trade Diverting Customs Unions and Welfare Improvement
Journal Article Trade Diverting Customs Unions and Welfare Improvement: A Comment Get access Alan P. Kirman Alan P. Kirman C.O.R.E. and Free University of Brussels Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Scholar The Economic Journal, Volume 83, Issue 331, 1 September 1973, Pages 890–894, https://doi.org/10.2307/2230681 Published: 01 September 1973
Values of Non-Atomic Games
Introduction to Equilibrium Analysis
Advanced Textbooks in Economics, Volume 6: Introduction to Equilibrium Analysis: Variations on Themes by Edgeworth and Walras focuses on the approaches developed and instituted by Edgeworth and Walras in the study of equilibrium analysis. The book first underscores exchange economies, core of a game, and large economies. Discussions focus on economies with a continuum of agents, Walras equilibrium, prices and demand, balancedness, and commodity s…
Introduction to Equilibrium Analysis
Journal Article HILDENBRAND (W.) and KIRMAN (A. P.). Introduction to Equilibrium Analysis Get access Introduction to Equilibrium Analysis. By W. Hildenbrand and A. P. Kirman. (Amsterdam: North-Holland Publishing Company, 1975. Pp. viii + 216. $18.50, Dfl. 45.00.) P. G. Hare P. G. Hare University of Stirling Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Scholar The Economic Journal, Volume 87, Issue 345, 1 March 1977, Pages 152–…
The Intrinsic Limits of Modern Economic Theory
Journal Article The Intrinsic Limits of Modern Economic Theory: The Emperor has No Clothes Get access Alan Kirman Alan Kirman European University Institute, Florence Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Scholar The Economic Journal, Volume 99, Issue 395, 1 April 1989, Pages 126–139, https://doi.org/10.2307/2234075 Published: 01 March 1989
Economic Complexity
Journal Article Economic Complexity: Chaos, Sunspots, Bubbles, and Nonlinearity Get access Economic Complexity: Chaos, Sunspots, Bubbles, and Nonlinearily. Edited by A. BARNETT WILLIAM, JOHN GEWEKE and KARL SHELL. (Cambridge and New York: Cambridge University Press, 1989. Pp. xi + 409. £30.00 hardback, US $49.50 hardback. ISBN 0 521 35563 X). Alan Kirman Alan Kirman European University Institute, Florence Search for other works by this author on:…
Contributions to Operations Research and Economics
These original contributions by leading economists in the decision sciences - operations research, game theory, econometrics, and mathematical economics - show how the interactions between these disciplines can enrich them all. In Part I, Game Theory and Mathematical Economics, Robert Aumann illuminates the ideas that underlie a series of major contributions in game theory during the last two decades, and Paul Champsaur provides a synthesis on in…
Two-Sided Matching
Journal Article Two-Sided Matching: A Study in Game-Theoretic Modeling and Analysis Get access Two-Sided Matching: A Study in Game-Theoretic Modeling and Analysis. By E. Roth Alvin and MARILDA A. Oliveira Sotomayor. (Cambridge and New York: Cambridge University Press, 1990. Pp. xiii + 265. £35.00 hardback, US $54.50 hardback. ISBN 0 521 39015 X.) Alan P. Kirman Alan P. Kirman European University Institute, Florence Search for other works by this …
Whom or What Does the Representative Individual Represent
Macroeconomic models often assume that the choices of all the diverse agents in one sector- consumers for example-can be considered as the choices of one "representative" standard utility maximizing individual whose choices coincide with the aggregate choices of the heterogeneous individuals. My basic point is that the reduction of the behavior of a group of heterogeneous agents even if they are all themselves utility maximizers, is not simply an…
Aggregation, Learning and Rationality
The assumption that individual economic units behave ‘rationally’ is widely used in many areas of economic theorizing, be it in microeconomics or macroeconomics. The purpose of this chapter is to review briefly a few recent studies that tend to challenge two aspects of this assumption
Market Organisation
The economy as an evolving network
Economies with Interacting Agents
Learning to Be Loyal. A Study of the Marseille Fish Market
Interaction and Market Structure
Market Organisation and Trading Relationships
In this paper we give a theoretical model of buyers' behaviour on a market for a perishable good where no prices are posted. We show that if buyers learn from their own previous experience there is a sharp division between those who learn to be loyal to certain sellers and those who continue to "shop around". This feature remains in more general models which are simulated and is consistent with empirical data from the Marseille fish market
Economics with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents
Some Problems and Perspectives in Economic Theory
Evolving market structure
Invariant et variabilité
L'économiste a comme objectif principal l'étude des états dans lesquels l'économie peut se trouver. La notion d'état de l'économie mérite d'être explicitée. Pour les grands théoriciens comme Arrow et Debreu, héritiers de la tradition de Walras et Pareto, elle est sans ambiguïté. Il s'agit d'une description complète de ce que fait et de ce que possède chaque individu et chaque entreprise dans l'économie. Pour un macro-économiste, en revanche, l'ét…
Bubbles and Long Range Dependence in Asset Prices Volatilities
Ranking Economics Departments in Europe
We provide a ranking of economics departments in Europe and we discuss the methods used to obtain it. The JEL CD-ROM serves as a database for a period covering 10 years. Journals are ranked using a combination of expert opinions and citation data to produce a scale from 1 to 10. The publication output and habits of fifteen European countries plus California are then compared. Individuals with a contribution greater than a predetermined minimum le…
The Structure of Economic Interaction
General Equilibrium
Complex Dynamics and Empirical Evidence
Economics (67 obras) · Economic theories and models (46 obras) · Computer Science (38 obras) · Complex Systems and Time Series Analysis (32 obras) · Microeconomics (24 obras) · Economic Theory and Institutions (22 obras) · Mathematical economics (22 obras) · Game Theory and Applications (20 obras) · Business (19 obras) · Sociology (18 obras)