Simon N Gosling
Biographic Data
| ID | 3064266 |
|---|---|
| NAME | Simon N Gosling |
| GIVEN NAMES | Simon N |
| FAMILY NAME | Gosling |
| SIGNATURE | GOSLING S N |
| AFFILIATIONS | University of Nottingham |
| ORCID | 0000-0001-5973-6862 |
| VERIFIED | Yes |
| TOTAL WORKS | 22 |
| TOTAL CITATIONS | 1 |
| AUTHOR COUNT | 22 |
| EDITOR COUNT | 0 |
| FIRST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2012 |
| LATEST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2026 |
| H-INDEX | 1 |
A co-production approach to identify and visualise vulnerability to urban extreme heat in Nottingham, UK
Adapting cities to extreme heat is a key global challenge that is exacerbated by the increasing frequency and severity of heatwaves. Critical to developing robust adaptation strategies is understanding where the greatest risk of negative impacts are located and why communities are vulnerable, i.e. unpicking the complex interrelationships between physiological factors, economic deprivation, and environmental constraints. This study presents a co-p…
The effectiveness of heat prevention plans in reducing heat-related mortality across Europe
Heat-health warning systems and action plans, referred to as heat prevention plans (HPPs), are key public health interventions aimed at reducing heat-related mortality. Despite their importance, prior assessments of their effectiveness have yielded inconsistent results. The objective of this study is to systematically assess the effectiveness of HPPs in reducing heat-related mortality risk across Europe. We analysed daily mortality and mean tempe…
Global hydrological models continue to overestimate river discharge
Global hydrological models (GHMs) are widely used to assess the impact of climate change on streamflow, floods, and hydrological droughts. For the ‘model evaluation and impact attribution’ part of the current round of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP3a), modelling teams generated historical simulations based on observed climate and direct human forcings with updated model versions. Here we provide a comprehensive ev…
The future of decent work: Forecasting heat stress and the intersection of sustainable development challenges in India's brick kilns
The impacts of climate change‐induced heat stress on workers are most prevalent in sectors with decent work deficits and this requires consideration for sustainable development. This paper focuses on the informal economy of brick kilns in India, a sector reliant on piece‐rate payments to its migrant labour force. We forecast to 2050, through satellite mapping and climate modelling, the number of days with extreme heat, loss of labour capacity, an…
Intergenerational inequities in exposure to climate extremes
Young generations are severely threatened by climate change
A quantitative evaluation of the issue of drought definition: A source of disagreement in future drought assessments
Droughts are anticipated to intensify in many parts of the world due to climate change. However, the issue of drought definition, namely the diversity of drought indices, makes it difficult to compare drought assessments. This issue is widely known, but its relative importance has never been quantitatively evaluated in comparison to other sources of uncertainty. Here, encompassing three drought categories (meteorological, agricultural, and hydrol…
Validity of estimating flood and drought characteristics under equilibrium climates from transient simulations
Future flood and drought risks have been predicted to transition from moderate to high levels at global warmings of 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C above pre-industrial levels, respectively. However, these results were obtained by approximating the equilibrium climate using transient simulations with steadily warming. This approach was recently criticised due to the warmer global land temperature and higher mean precipitation intensities of the transient clima…
Evapotranspiration simulations in Isimip2a—Evaluation of spatio-temporal characteristics with a comprehensive ensemble of independent datasets
Actual land evapotranspiration (ET) is a key component of the global hydrological cycle and an essential variable determining the evolution of hydrological extreme events under different climate change scenarios. However, recently available ET products show persistent uncertainties that are impeding a precise attribution of human-induced climate change. Here, we aim at comparing a range of independent global monthly land ET estimates with histori…
Human impact parameterizations in global hydrological models improve estimates of monthly discharges and hydrological extremes: A multi-model validation study
Human activities have a profound influence on river discharge, hydrological extremes, and water-related hazards. In this study, we compare the results of five state-of-the-art global hydrological models (GHMs) with observations to examine the role of human impact parameterizations (HIP) in the simulation of the mean, high, and low flows. The analysis is performed for 471 gauging stations across the globe and for the period 1971-2010. We find that…
Worldwide evaluation of mean and extreme runoff from six global-scale hydrological models that account for human impacts
Global-scale hydrological models are routinely used to assess water scarcity, flood hazards and droughts worldwide. Recent efforts to incorporate anthropogenic activities in these models have enabled more realistic comparisons with observations. Here we evaluate simulations from an ensemble of six models participating in the second phase of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Inter-comparison Project (ISIMIP2a). We simulate monthly runoff in 40 catch…
Assessing the impacts of 1.5 °C global warming – simulation protocol of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (Isimip2b)
In Paris, France, December 2015, the Conference of the Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) invited the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to provide a special report in 2018 on the impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways. In Nairobi, Kenya, April 2016, the IPCC panel accepted the invitation. Here we describe th…
Water scarcity assessments in the past, present, and future
Water scarcity has become a major constraint to socio‐economic development and a threat to livelihood in increasing parts of the world. Since the late 1980s, water scarcity research has attracted much political and public attention. We here review a variety of indicators that have been developed to capture different characteristics of water scarcity. Population, water availability, and water use are the key elements of these indicators. Most of t…
The critical role of the routing scheme in simulating peak river discharge in global hydrological models
Global hydrological models (GHMs) have been applied to assess global flood hazards, but their capacity to capture the timing and amplitude of peak river discharge—which is crucial in flood simulations—has traditionally not been the focus of examination. Here we evaluate to what degree the choice of river routing scheme affects simulations of peak discharge and may help to provide better agreement with observations. To this end we use runoff and d…
Intercomparison of global river discharge simulations focusing on dam operation—multiple models analysis in two case-study river basins, Missouri–Mississippi and Green–Colorado
We performed a twofold intercomparison of river discharge regulated by dams under multiple meteorological forcings among multiple global hydrological models for a historical period by simulation. Paper II provides an intercomparison of river discharge simulated by five hydrological models under four meteorological forcings. This is the first global multimodel intercomparison study on dam-regulated river flow. Although the simulations were conduct…
Multimodel uncertainty changes in simulated river flows induced by human impact parameterizations
Human impacts increasingly affect the global hydrological cycle and indeed dominate hydrological changes in some regions. Hydrologists have sought to identify the human-impact-induced hydrological variations via parameterizing anthropogenic water uses in global hydrological models (GHMs). The consequently increased model complexity is likely to introduce additional uncertainty among GHMs. Here, using four GHMs, between-model uncertainties are qua…
Sources of uncertainty in hydrological climate impact assessment: A cross-scale study
Climate change impacts on water availability and hydrological extremes are major concerns as regards the Sustainable Development Goals. Impacts on hydrology are normally investigated as part of a modelling chain, in which climate projections from multiple climate models are used as inputs to multiple impact models, under different greenhouse gas emissions scenarios, which are resulting in different amounts of global temperature rise. While the go…
The impacts of climate change on river flood risk at the global scale
This paper presents an assessment of the implications of climate change for global river flood risk. It is based on the estimation of flood frequency relationships at a grid resolution of 0.5 × 0.5°, using a global hydrological model with climate scenarios derived from 21 climate models, together with projections of future population. Four indicators of the flood hazard are calculated; change in the magnitude and return period of flood peaks, flo…
Perspectives on the Synoptic Climate Classification and its Role in Interdisciplinary Research
Synoptic climatology has a long history of research where weather data are aggregated and composited to gain a better understanding of atmospheric effects on non-atmospheric variables. This has resulted in an applied scientific discipline that yields methods and tools designed for applications across disciplinary boundaries. The spatial synoptic classification (SSC) is an example of such a tool that helps researchers bridge methodological gaps be…
Enhancing the spatial resolution of satellite-derived land surface temperature mapping for urban areas
Multimodel assessment of water scarcity under climate change
Water scarcity severely impairs food security and economic prosperity in many countries today. Expected future population changes will, in many countries as well as globally, increase the pressure on available water resources. On the supply side, renewable water resources will be affected by projected changes in precipitation patterns, temperature, and other climate variables. Here we use a large ensemble of global hydrological models (GHMs) forc…
Constraints and potentials of future irrigation water availability on agricultural production under climate change
Significance Freshwater availability is relevant to almost all socioeconomic and environmental impacts of climate and demographic change and their implications for sustainability. We compare ensembles of water supply and demand projections driven by ensemble output from five global climate models. Our results suggest reasons for concern. Direct climate impacts to maize, soybean, wheat, and rice involve losses of 400–2,600 Pcal (8–43% of present-d…
The likelihood and potential impact of future change in the large-scale climate-earth system on ecosystem services
The likelihood and potential impact of future change in the large-scale climate-earth system on ecosystem services
Multimodel assessment of water scarcity under climate change
Water scarcity severely impairs food security and economic prosperity in many countries today. Expected future population changes will, in many countries as well as globally, increase the pressure on available water resources. On the supply side, renewable water resources will be affected by projected changes in precipitation patterns, temperature, and other climate variables. Here we use a large ensemble of global hydrological models (GHMs) forc…
Constraints and potentials of future irrigation water availability on agricultural production under climate change
Significance Freshwater availability is relevant to almost all socioeconomic and environmental impacts of climate and demographic change and their implications for sustainability. We compare ensembles of water supply and demand projections driven by ensemble output from five global climate models. Our results suggest reasons for concern. Direct climate impacts to maize, soybean, wheat, and rice involve losses of 400–2,600 Pcal (8–43% of present-d…
Enhancing the spatial resolution of satellite-derived land surface temperature mapping for urban areas
The impacts of climate change on river flood risk at the global scale
This paper presents an assessment of the implications of climate change for global river flood risk. It is based on the estimation of flood frequency relationships at a grid resolution of 0.5 × 0.5°, using a global hydrological model with climate scenarios derived from 21 climate models, together with projections of future population. Four indicators of the flood hazard are calculated; change in the magnitude and return period of flood peaks, flo…
Perspectives on the Synoptic Climate Classification and its Role in Interdisciplinary Research
Synoptic climatology has a long history of research where weather data are aggregated and composited to gain a better understanding of atmospheric effects on non-atmospheric variables. This has resulted in an applied scientific discipline that yields methods and tools designed for applications across disciplinary boundaries. The spatial synoptic classification (SSC) is an example of such a tool that helps researchers bridge methodological gaps be…
Assessing the impacts of 1.5 °C global warming – simulation protocol of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (Isimip2b)
In Paris, France, December 2015, the Conference of the Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) invited the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to provide a special report in 2018 on the impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways. In Nairobi, Kenya, April 2016, the IPCC panel accepted the invitation. Here we describe th…
Water scarcity assessments in the past, present, and future
Water scarcity has become a major constraint to socio‐economic development and a threat to livelihood in increasing parts of the world. Since the late 1980s, water scarcity research has attracted much political and public attention. We here review a variety of indicators that have been developed to capture different characteristics of water scarcity. Population, water availability, and water use are the key elements of these indicators. Most of t…
The critical role of the routing scheme in simulating peak river discharge in global hydrological models
Global hydrological models (GHMs) have been applied to assess global flood hazards, but their capacity to capture the timing and amplitude of peak river discharge—which is crucial in flood simulations—has traditionally not been the focus of examination. Here we evaluate to what degree the choice of river routing scheme affects simulations of peak discharge and may help to provide better agreement with observations. To this end we use runoff and d…
Intercomparison of global river discharge simulations focusing on dam operation—multiple models analysis in two case-study river basins, Missouri–Mississippi and Green–Colorado
We performed a twofold intercomparison of river discharge regulated by dams under multiple meteorological forcings among multiple global hydrological models for a historical period by simulation. Paper II provides an intercomparison of river discharge simulated by five hydrological models under four meteorological forcings. This is the first global multimodel intercomparison study on dam-regulated river flow. Although the simulations were conduct…
Multimodel uncertainty changes in simulated river flows induced by human impact parameterizations
Human impacts increasingly affect the global hydrological cycle and indeed dominate hydrological changes in some regions. Hydrologists have sought to identify the human-impact-induced hydrological variations via parameterizing anthropogenic water uses in global hydrological models (GHMs). The consequently increased model complexity is likely to introduce additional uncertainty among GHMs. Here, using four GHMs, between-model uncertainties are qua…
Sources of uncertainty in hydrological climate impact assessment: A cross-scale study
Climate change impacts on water availability and hydrological extremes are major concerns as regards the Sustainable Development Goals. Impacts on hydrology are normally investigated as part of a modelling chain, in which climate projections from multiple climate models are used as inputs to multiple impact models, under different greenhouse gas emissions scenarios, which are resulting in different amounts of global temperature rise. While the go…
Evapotranspiration simulations in Isimip2a—Evaluation of spatio-temporal characteristics with a comprehensive ensemble of independent datasets
Actual land evapotranspiration (ET) is a key component of the global hydrological cycle and an essential variable determining the evolution of hydrological extreme events under different climate change scenarios. However, recently available ET products show persistent uncertainties that are impeding a precise attribution of human-induced climate change. Here, we aim at comparing a range of independent global monthly land ET estimates with histori…
Human impact parameterizations in global hydrological models improve estimates of monthly discharges and hydrological extremes: A multi-model validation study
Human activities have a profound influence on river discharge, hydrological extremes, and water-related hazards. In this study, we compare the results of five state-of-the-art global hydrological models (GHMs) with observations to examine the role of human impact parameterizations (HIP) in the simulation of the mean, high, and low flows. The analysis is performed for 471 gauging stations across the globe and for the period 1971-2010. We find that…
Worldwide evaluation of mean and extreme runoff from six global-scale hydrological models that account for human impacts
Global-scale hydrological models are routinely used to assess water scarcity, flood hazards and droughts worldwide. Recent efforts to incorporate anthropogenic activities in these models have enabled more realistic comparisons with observations. Here we evaluate simulations from an ensemble of six models participating in the second phase of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Inter-comparison Project (ISIMIP2a). We simulate monthly runoff in 40 catch…
Intergenerational inequities in exposure to climate extremes
Young generations are severely threatened by climate change
A quantitative evaluation of the issue of drought definition: A source of disagreement in future drought assessments
Droughts are anticipated to intensify in many parts of the world due to climate change. However, the issue of drought definition, namely the diversity of drought indices, makes it difficult to compare drought assessments. This issue is widely known, but its relative importance has never been quantitatively evaluated in comparison to other sources of uncertainty. Here, encompassing three drought categories (meteorological, agricultural, and hydrol…
Validity of estimating flood and drought characteristics under equilibrium climates from transient simulations
Future flood and drought risks have been predicted to transition from moderate to high levels at global warmings of 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C above pre-industrial levels, respectively. However, these results were obtained by approximating the equilibrium climate using transient simulations with steadily warming. This approach was recently criticised due to the warmer global land temperature and higher mean precipitation intensities of the transient clima…
Global hydrological models continue to overestimate river discharge
Global hydrological models (GHMs) are widely used to assess the impact of climate change on streamflow, floods, and hydrological droughts. For the ‘model evaluation and impact attribution’ part of the current round of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP3a), modelling teams generated historical simulations based on observed climate and direct human forcings with updated model versions. Here we provide a comprehensive ev…
The future of decent work: Forecasting heat stress and the intersection of sustainable development challenges in India's brick kilns
The impacts of climate change‐induced heat stress on workers are most prevalent in sectors with decent work deficits and this requires consideration for sustainable development. This paper focuses on the informal economy of brick kilns in India, a sector reliant on piece‐rate payments to its migrant labour force. We forecast to 2050, through satellite mapping and climate modelling, the number of days with extreme heat, loss of labour capacity, an…
The effectiveness of heat prevention plans in reducing heat-related mortality across Europe
Heat-health warning systems and action plans, referred to as heat prevention plans (HPPs), are key public health interventions aimed at reducing heat-related mortality. Despite their importance, prior assessments of their effectiveness have yielded inconsistent results. The objective of this study is to systematically assess the effectiveness of HPPs in reducing heat-related mortality risk across Europe. We analysed daily mortality and mean tempe…
A co-production approach to identify and visualise vulnerability to urban extreme heat in Nottingham, UK
Adapting cities to extreme heat is a key global challenge that is exacerbated by the increasing frequency and severity of heatwaves. Critical to developing robust adaptation strategies is understanding where the greatest risk of negative impacts are located and why communities are vulnerable, i.e. unpicking the complex interrelationships between physiological factors, economic deprivation, and environmental constraints. This study presents a co-p…
Environmental Science (19 works) · Geography (14 works) · Climatology (12 works) · Hydrology and Watershed Management Studies (12 works) · Climate change (11 works) · Geology (10 works) · Climate variability and models (9 works) · Flood Risk Assessment and Management (9 works) · Climate model (7 works) · Ecology (7 works)