Yusaku Horiuchi
Biographic Data
| ID | 309242 |
|---|---|
| NAME | Yusaku Horiuchi |
| GIVEN NAMES | Yusaku |
| FAMILY NAME | Horiuchi |
| SIGNATURE | HORIUCHI Y |
| AFFILIATIONS | Dartmouth College |
| ORCID | 0000-0003-0295-4089 |
| VERIFIED | Yes |
| TOTAL WORKS | 56 |
| TOTAL CITATIONS | 946 |
| AUTHOR COUNT | 56 |
| EDITOR COUNT | 0 |
| FIRST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2003 |
| LATEST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2026 |
| H-INDEX | 17 |
Correcting measurement error bias in conjoint survey experiments
Conjoint survey designs are spreading across the social sciences due to their unusual capacity to estimate many causal effects from a single randomized experiment. Unfortunately, by their ability to mirror complicated real‐world choices, these designs often generate substantial measurement error and thus bias. We replicate both the data collection and analysis from eight prominent conjoint studies, all of which closely reproduce published results…
Unraveling Americans’ Selective Sympathies Toward Israelis and Palestinians
Conflicts manifest on two fronts: the battlefield and global public opinion. This study explores how ordinary individuals form sympathies toward those involved in conflicts abroad, focusing on American public opinion about the Gaza conflict that began in 2023. Based on two conjoint experiments—one fielded the day after Israel’s 2023 ground invasion of Gaza and another conducted in May 2025—we find that Americans selectively pay attention to subst…
Does Public Diplomacy Sway Domestic Public Opinion? Presidential Travel Abroad and Approval at Home
Political leaders travel abroad to attend bilateral and multilateral meetings, engage in public diplomacy, and send signals of commitment or deterrence. However, their incentive to use this foreign policy tool depends in part on how the domestic audience responds to it. We leverage a powerful dataset of daily surveys during the Obama administration to examine whether US presidential trips abroad change domestic public approval ratings. Specifical…
Civilian control and casualty sensitivity in a pacifist democracy: Evidence from Japan's 2021 exigent evacuation mission
How do citizens in pacifist democracies respond to military operations under exigency conditions? We examine this question based on a preregistered, real-time survey experiment we fielded in Japan during the August 2021 Self-Defense Forces (SDF) evacuation from Afghanistan. Building on research in international relations, we test whether Japanese citizens prioritize civilian control and how sensitive they are to military casualties. Our results c…
The Supreme Court’s Partisan Composition Affects How Americans Evaluate Nominees: Evidence from a Conjoint Experiment
We hypothesize that the public assesses U.S. Supreme Court nominees in light of the contemporaneous Court’s partisan composition. In a preregistered conjoint experiment ( n = 9,895), we find that Democrats and Republicans weigh nominee partisanship more heavily when their party is losing the Court and less heavily when their party already enjoys a secure majority. Consistent with affective polarization and threat-based political psychology, howev…
Disclosing Invisible Attributes Leads to Discrimination
Despite extensive research on discrimination, little is known about how disclosing invisible attributes, such as religion, socio-economic class, and sexual orientation, affects others’ discriminatory attitudes. This study examines the case of Zainichi Koreans in Japan, descendants of Korean migrants who remained in Japan after World War II under special permanent residency status. Zainichi Koreans face a dilemma: whether to disclose their ethnic …
Descriptive or Partisan Representation? Examining Trade-Offs for Asian Americans
Do voters want representatives who share their race, ethnicity, or partisanship? We examine this question with a focus on Asian Americans who face trade-offs between descriptive (that is, Asian American or ‘pan-ethnic’) and partisan representation, as well as trade-offs involving ‘co-ethnic’ (for example, Korean for Korean) and ‘cross-ethnic’ (for example, Indian for Korean) descriptive representation. Across two experiments, we find that when As…
Winning Elections with Unpopular Policies: Valence Advantage and Single-Party Dominance in Japan
Do voters support dominant parties in democracies because of policy preferences or non-policy (valence) factors? We consider the pre-eminent case of Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), and investigate whether policy preferences or valence can better explain voting behavior in three recent elections (2017, 2021, 2024). We first introduce a new measurement strategy to infer individuals’ utility for parties’ policy platforms from conjoint experi…
Reassessing Gendered Reactions to Terrorist Attacks: Slumps or Bumps
In a recent article published in this journal, Holman, Merolla, and Zechmeister (2022; 2024) report a decrease in support for U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May following the 2017 Manchester bombing, using data from the British Election Studies. Our analysis, however, reveals that once a linear time trend is considered, the bombing does not significantly affect public reactions. We replicate their study with Gallup World Poll data and likewise find …
Perceived Motives of Public Diplomacy Influence Foreign Public Opinion
Social contact and attitudes toward outsiders: The case of Japan
Previous studies have shown that people oppose refugee resettlement more strongly after being exposed to frames that depict refugees as threatening. However, all people may not perceive such threats the same way. Based on contact theory, we hypothesize that the treatment effects of threatening frames on people’s opposition to refugee resettlement are conditional on their contact experience with foreign-national residents. The results of our pre-r…
U.S. Military Should Not Be in My Backyard: Conjoint Experiments in Japan
The war in Ukraine has manifested the critical importance of the American alliance network and the swift and effective deployment of necessary military assets. But do citizens of the U.S. allies support the deployment of such advanced, thus controversial, military assets in their countries? To examine this question, we administered two conjoint experiments in Japan, a critical U.S. ally in Asia. The results show the Japanese citizens’ strong Not-…
Natural Experiments of the Rally 'Round the Flag Effects Using Worldwide Surveys
The “rally 'round the flag” effect—a short-term boost in a political leader’s popularity during an interstate political dispute—was first proposed by Mueller (1970) more than half a century ago. However, there is no scholarly consensus on its empirical validity and the circumstances under which the effect becomes most prominent. In this paper, based on a natural experimental design, we analyze large-scale worldwide surveys of 34,118 responses and…
Young Citizens’ Civic Engagement and Civic Attitudes: A Regression Discontinuity Analysis
Does Russian election interference damage support for US alliances? The case of Japan
Scholars and practitioners often argue that the United States’ identity as a democracy contributes to the effectiveness and endurance of US military alliances. One way to test this claim is to ask: what would happen if citizens of allied countries came to perceive US democracy as severely flawed or diminished? In the context of now well-documented Russian interference in recent US elections, we examine whether Russia’s election interference and i…
National identity predicts public health support during a global pandemic
Changing collective behaviour and supporting non-pharmaceutical interventions is an important component in mitigating virus transmission during a pandemic. In a large international collaboration (Study 1, N = 49,968 across 67 countries), we investigated self-reported factors associated with public health behaviours (e.g., spatial distancing and stricter hygiene) and endorsed public policy interventions (e.g., closing bars and restaurants) during …
Country Risks and Brain Drain: The Emigration Potential of Japanese Skilled Workers
While most existing research attributes contemporary Japanese emigration to the pursuit of a better lifestyle, recent qualitative studies point out that concern about country risks is a significant driver . We explore Japan’s brain-drain potential and factors shaping Japanese skilled workers’ interest in emigrating to other countries based on our original survey with an experimental component. We first undertake descriptive analysis using respond…
Do Identity Frames Impact Support for Multiracial Candidates? The Case of Kamala Harris
The number of multiracial candidates seeking office is growing in an increasingly diverse America. This raises questions about how the media frame candidates with potentially complex racial backgrounds and how voters respond to these frames. We investigate the impact of media frames that emphasize race and gender attributes using survey experiments on Kamala Harris—the first Black woman and first Asian woman vice president. Our findings are mixed…
Revisiting negative externalities of US military bases: The case of Okinawa
In a recently published article, Allen et al. (Outside the wire: U.S. military deployments and public opinion in host states’, American Political Science Review, 114(2), 326–341; 2020) argue that US military deployments nurture favorable attitudes toward the United States among foreign citizens. Their claim is based on social contact and economic compensation theories, applied to a large-scale cross-national survey project funded by the US govern…
Workshops Without Borders: Building an Online Community of Japan Scholars
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Susceptibility to threatening information and attitudes toward refugee resettlement: The case of Japan
A growing number of news articles and politicians’ statements treat refugees as potential terrorists. However, existing research has yet to thoroughly examine how threatening information about refugees affects natives’ attitudes toward refugee resettlement. To address this issue, we conducted a survey experiment in Japan, where the number of refugees accepted each year is extremely small, despite the rapid increase in news about refugees. Our res…
Disfavor or Favor? Assessing the Valence of White Americans’ Racial Attitudes
When individuals’ racial attitudes are associated with their judgments related to race — for example, when people with more negative attitudes toward Blacks are less likely to vote for a Black political candidate — existing studies routinely interpret it as evidence of prejudice against minorities. But theoretically, such associations can represent favoring minorities, disfavoring them, or a combination of both. We provide a conceptual framework …
Does Conjoint Analysis Mitigate Social Desirability Bias
How can we elicit honest responses in surveys? Conjoint analysis has become a popular tool to address social desirability bias (SDB), or systematic survey misreporting on sensitive topics. However, there has been no direct evidence showing its suitability for this purpose. We propose a novel experimental design to identify conjoint analysis’s ability to mitigate SDB. Specifically, we compare a standard, fully randomized conjoint design against a …
Student Attitudes Toward Campus Diversity at the U.S. Naval Academy: Evidence From Conjoint Survey Experiments
Although the value of diversity—in terms of race, ethnicity, gender, and socioeconomic status—to the U.S. military has been subject to debate, preferences for diversity at educational institutions for the military officers are rarely examined systematically. To address this, we investigate whether midshipmen at the U.S. Naval Academy favor prioritizing diversity in student admissions and faculty recruitment using conjoint analysis, a method suite…
Exposure to Immigration and Admission Preferences: Evidence from France
Does Conjoint Analysis Mitigate Social Desirability Bias
How can we elicit honest responses in surveys? Conjoint analysis has become a popular tool to address social desirability bias (SDB), or systematic survey misreporting on sensitive topics. However, there has been no direct evidence showing its suitability for this purpose. We propose a novel experimental design to identify conjoint analysis’s ability to mitigate SDB. Specifically, we compare a standard, fully randomized conjoint design against a …
In Search of Soft Power: Does Foreign Public Opinion Matter for US Foreign Policy
Does “soft power” matter in international relations? Specifically, when the United States seeks cooperation from countries around the world, do the views of their publics about US foreign policy affect the actual foreign policy behavior of these countries? The authors examine this question using multinational surveys covering fifty-eight countries, combined with information about their foreign policy decisions in 2003, a critical year for the US.…
Spinning the Globe? U.S. Public Diplomacy and Foreign Public Opinion
Global public opinion has emerged as a prominent issue in international relations. But have U.S. public diplomacy efforts during the post-9/11 period successfully improved foreign publics appraisals of U.S. foreign policy? We examine this question by estimating the effects of U.S. high-level visits to foreign countries on public opinion in those countries. We base our theoretical arguments on the political communication literature, but extend the…
Reapportionment and Redistribution: Consequences of Electoral Reform in Japan
Does reapportionment in a legislature affect policy outcomes? We examine this question from a comparative perspective by focusing on reapportionment associated with the electoral reform in Japan. First, we show that the reform of 1994 resulted in an unprecedented degree of equalization in legislative representation. Second, using municipal‐level data, we present evidence that municipalities in overrepresented districts received significantly more…
Does Public Diplomacy Sway Foreign Public Opinion? Identifying the Effect of High-Level Visits
Although many governments invest significant resources in public-diplomacy campaigns, there is little well-identified evidence of these efforts' effectiveness. We examine the effects of a major type of public diplomacy: high-level visits by national leaders to other countries. We combine a dataset of the international travels of 15 leaders from 9 countries over 11 years, with worldwide surveys administered in 38 host countries. By comparing 32,45…
Identifying voter preferences for politicians’ personal attributes: A conjoint experiment in Japan
Although politicians’ personal attributes are an important component of elections and representation, few studies have rigorously investigated which attributes are most relevant in shaping voters’ preferences for politicians, or whether these preferences vary across different electoral system contexts. We investigate these questions with a conjoint survey experiment using the case of Japan’s mixed-member bicameral system. We find that the attribu…
Exposure to Immigration and Admission Preferences: Evidence from France
Measuring Voters’ Multidimensional Policy Preferences with Conjoint Analysis: Application to Japan’s 2014 Election
Representative democracy entails the aggregation of multiple policy issues by parties into competing bundles of policies, or “manifestos,” which are then evaluated holistically by voters in elections. This aggregation process obscures themultidimensionalpolicy preferences underlying a voter’ssinglechoice of party or candidate. We address this problem through a conjoint experiment based on the actual party manifestos in Japan’s 2014 House of Repre…
Designing and Analyzing Randomized Experiments: Application to a Japanese Election Survey Experiment
Randomized experiments are becoming increasingly common in political science. Despite their well‐known advantages over observational studies, randomized experiments are not free from complications. In particular, researchers often cannot force subjects to comply with treatment assignment and to provide the requested information. Furthermore, simple randomization of treatments remains the most commonly used method in the discipline even though mor…
Doing Well by Doing Good: The Impact of Foreign Aid on Foreign Public Opinion
Does foreign aid extended by one country improve that country’s image among populations of recipient countries? Using a multinational survey, we show that a United States aid program targeted to address HIV and AIDS substantially improves perceptions of the U.S. Our identification strategy for causal inference is to use instrumental variables measuring the magnitude of the HIV/AIDS problem in aid recipient countries. Our finding implies that in a…
The Presidency, Regionalism, and Distributive Politics in South Korea
Although whether there is political influence on distributive policies is now indisputable, important debates have emerged about how politics distorts distributive policy outcomes. In this article, the authors improve the understanding of distributive politics by focusing on South Korea. They argue that because of Korea-specific institutional and cultural settings, an incumbent president allocates disproportionately larger amounts of pork-barrel …
American Foreign Policy and Global Opinion: Who Supported the War in Afghanistan
What affects global public opinion about U.S. foreign policy? The authors examine this question using a cross-national survey conducted during and immediately after the 2001 U.S.-led war in Afghanistan. They propose three models of global public opinion— interests, socialization, and influence—and discuss their empirical validity. Socialization variables (e.g., Muslim population and past terrorist incidents) tend to exhibit significant effects. A…
Hard acts to follow: Predecessor effects on party leader survival
In this article, using our original data on party leadership succession in 23 parliamentary democracies, we investigate the determinants of a party leader’s survival rate: how long he/she remains in office. Unlike previous studies, which focus on institutional settings of leadership selection or on situational (political, economic and international) conditions at the time of succession, we propose a perceptual theory of leadership survival, focus…
Has Trump Damaged the U.S. Image Abroad? Decomposing the Effects of Policy Messages on Foreign Public Opinion
Removing Boundaries, Losing Connections: Electoral Consequences of Local Government Reform in Japan
In this article we examine the role of local politicians in affecting national-level election outcomes by focusing on the drastic municipal mergers in Japan that took place in the early 2000s. Specifically, we argue that the political party that relies most extensively on local politicians' efforts for electoral mobilization and monitoring will suffer an electoral slump when municipalities are merged and the number of municipal politicians is swi…
Making Outsiders' Votes Count: Detecting Electoral Fraud through a Natural Experiment
Weak electoral registration requirements are commonly thought to encourage electoral participation, but may also promote electoral fraud. As one possibility, candidates and their supporters can more easily mobilize voters who do not reside within the district to register there fraudulently and vote for that district's candidates. We statistically detect this classic type of electoral fraud for the first time, by taking advantage of a natural expe…
Should Candidates Smile to Win Elections? An Application of Automated Face Recognition Technology
Previous studies examining whether the faces of candidates affect election outcomes commonly measure study participants' subjective judgment of various characteristics of candidates, which participants infer based solely on the photographic images of candidates. We, instead, develop a smile index of such images objectively with automated face‐recognition technology. The advantage of applying this new technology is that the automated process of me…
Disfavor or Favor? Assessing the Valence of White Americans’ Racial Attitudes
When individuals’ racial attitudes are associated with their judgments related to race — for example, when people with more negative attitudes toward Blacks are less likely to vote for a Black political candidate — existing studies routinely interpret it as evidence of prejudice against minorities. But theoretically, such associations can represent favoring minorities, disfavoring them, or a combination of both. We provide a conceptual framework …
Compulsory Voting and Income Inequality: Evidence for Lijphart's Proposition from Venezuela
What difference does it make if the state makes people vote? The question is central to normative debates about the rights and duties of citizens in a democracy, and to contemporary policy debates in a number of Latin American countries over what actions states should take to encourage electoral participation. Focusing on a rare case of abolishing compulsory voting in Venezuela, this article shows that not forcing people to vote yielded a more un…
Malapportionment and Income Inequality: A Cross-National Analysis
Samuels and Snyder in their recent article in this Journal presented an index of malapportionment (i.e., the discrepancy between seat shares and population shares by electoral districts) in national legislatures for seventy-eight countries. This short Research Note merges their index with the Gini index, a commonly used measure of income inequality, and explores cross-nationally the relationship between inequality in political representation and …
No sorting, no advantage: Regression discontinuity estimates of incumbency advantage in Japan
Partisan motivated reasoning and misinformation in the media: Is news from ideologically uncongenial sources more suspicious
In recent years, concerns about misinformation in the media have skyrocketed. President Donald Trump has repeatedly claimed that various news outlets are disseminating ‘fake news’ for political purposes. But when the information contained in mainstream media news reports provides no clear clues about its truth value or any indication of a partisan slant, do people rely on the congeniality of the news outlet to judge whether the information is tru…
Why Should the Republicans Pray for Rain? Electoral Consequences of Rainfall Revisited
Existing studies—most importantly, Gomez, Hansford, and Krause—provide empirical support for an idea often embraced by popular media: The vote share of the Republican Party (as the percentage of total votes) increases when it rains, because the magnitude of decrease in turnout is larger among Democratic vis-à-vis Republican supporters. Considering the compositional nature of aggregated data, we show that the alleged Republican advantage derives i…
Understanding Japanese Politics from a Local Perspective
Japanese politics is by no means a new subject to research for political scientists. Over many decades, scholars have written numerous books andjournal articles in English on Japanese politics. Some are specifically aimed at understanding political and policy processes in Japan, while others use Japan as a case study, often in com parison with other countries, to develop and refine broadly applicable theories. This voluminous literature in Englis…
Perceived Motives of Public Diplomacy Influence Foreign Public Opinion
Reapportionment and Redistribution: Consequences of Electoral Reform in Japan
Does reapportionment in a legislature affect policy outcomes? We examine this question from a comparative perspective by focusing on reapportionment associated with the electoral reform in Japan. First, we show that the reform of 1994 resulted in an unprecedented degree of equalization in legislative representation. Second, using municipal‐level data, we present evidence that municipalities in overrepresented districts received significantly more…
Malapportionment and Income Inequality: A Cross-National Analysis
Samuels and Snyder in their recent article in this Journal presented an index of malapportionment (i.e., the discrepancy between seat shares and population shares by electoral districts) in national legislatures for seventy-eight countries. This short Research Note merges their index with the Gini index, a commonly used measure of income inequality, and explores cross-nationally the relationship between inequality in political representation and …
American Foreign Policy and Global Opinion: Who Supported the War in Afghanistan
What affects global public opinion about U.S. foreign policy? The authors examine this question using a cross-national survey conducted during and immediately after the 2001 U.S.-led war in Afghanistan. They propose three models of global public opinion— interests, socialization, and influence—and discuss their empirical validity. Socialization variables (e.g., Muslim population and past terrorist incidents) tend to exhibit significant effects. A…
Designing and Analyzing Randomized Experiments: Application to a Japanese Election Survey Experiment
Randomized experiments are becoming increasingly common in political science. Despite their well‐known advantages over observational studies, randomized experiments are not free from complications. In particular, researchers often cannot force subjects to comply with treatment assignment and to provide the requested information. Furthermore, simple randomization of treatments remains the most commonly used method in the discipline even though mor…
The Presidency, Regionalism, and Distributive Politics in South Korea
Although whether there is political influence on distributive policies is now indisputable, important debates have emerged about how politics distorts distributive policy outcomes. In this article, the authors improve the understanding of distributive politics by focusing on South Korea. They argue that because of Korea-specific institutional and cultural settings, an incumbent president allocates disproportionately larger amounts of pork-barrel …
Spinning the Globe? U.S. Public Diplomacy and Foreign Public Opinion
Global public opinion has emerged as a prominent issue in international relations. But have U.S. public diplomacy efforts during the post-9/11 period successfully improved foreign publics appraisals of U.S. foreign policy? We examine this question by estimating the effects of U.S. high-level visits to foreign countries on public opinion in those countries. We base our theoretical arguments on the political communication literature, but extend the…
Understanding Japanese Politics from a Local Perspective
Japanese politics is by no means a new subject to research for political scientists. Over many decades, scholars have written numerous books andjournal articles in English on Japanese politics. Some are specifically aimed at understanding political and policy processes in Japan, while others use Japan as a case study, often in com parison with other countries, to develop and refine broadly applicable theories. This voluminous literature in Englis…
Cultivating Rice and Votes: The Institutional Origins of Agricultural Protectionism in Japan
We explore in this article an institutional foundation of agricultural protectionism in Japan, a country long recognized as resisting international pressures to open up its rice market. Using our qualitative analysis of postwar politics of agricultural protectionism and a simple formal model, we argue that farmers in Japan have stronger incentives to mobilize electoral support for the governing party in multimember district systems than in single…
Making Outsiders' Votes Count: Detecting Electoral Fraud through a Natural Experiment
Weak electoral registration requirements are commonly thought to encourage electoral participation, but may also promote electoral fraud. As one possibility, candidates and their supporters can more easily mobilize voters who do not reside within the district to register there fraudulently and vote for that district's candidates. We statistically detect this classic type of electoral fraud for the first time, by taking advantage of a natural expe…
In Search of Soft Power: Does Foreign Public Opinion Matter for US Foreign Policy
Does “soft power” matter in international relations? Specifically, when the United States seeks cooperation from countries around the world, do the views of their publics about US foreign policy affect the actual foreign policy behavior of these countries? The authors examine this question using multinational surveys covering fifty-eight countries, combined with information about their foreign policy decisions in 2003, a critical year for the US.…
Should Candidates Smile to Win Elections? An Application of Automated Face Recognition Technology
Previous studies examining whether the faces of candidates affect election outcomes commonly measure study participants' subjective judgment of various characteristics of candidates, which participants infer based solely on the photographic images of candidates. We, instead, develop a smile index of such images objectively with automated face‐recognition technology. The advantage of applying this new technology is that the automated process of me…
Doing Well by Doing Good: The Impact of Foreign Aid on Foreign Public Opinion
Does foreign aid extended by one country improve that country’s image among populations of recipient countries? Using a multinational survey, we show that a United States aid program targeted to address HIV and AIDS substantially improves perceptions of the U.S. Our identification strategy for causal inference is to use instrumental variables measuring the magnitude of the HIV/AIDS problem in aid recipient countries. Our finding implies that in a…
Removing Boundaries, Losing Connections: Electoral Consequences of Local Government Reform in Japan
In this article we examine the role of local politicians in affecting national-level election outcomes by focusing on the drastic municipal mergers in Japan that took place in the early 2000s. Specifically, we argue that the political party that relies most extensively on local politicians' efforts for electoral mobilization and monitoring will suffer an electoral slump when municipalities are merged and the number of municipal politicians is swi…
The Opportunity Cost of Conflict: Statistically Comparing Israel and Synthetic Israel
What would Israel’s economy have looked like without the 2000 Palestinian Intifada? This article examines this counterfactual question by statistically comparing the economic growth trajectories of Israel and a “synthetic” Israel, which is constructed by applying a method proposed by Abadie and Gardeazabal (2003) and Abadie, Diamond and Hainmueller (2010, 2014). The results of the analysis suggest that Israel’s per capita gross domestic product d…
Hard acts to follow: Predecessor effects on party leader survival
In this article, using our original data on party leadership succession in 23 parliamentary democracies, we investigate the determinants of a party leader’s survival rate: how long he/she remains in office. Unlike previous studies, which focus on institutional settings of leadership selection or on situational (political, economic and international) conditions at the time of succession, we propose a perceptual theory of leadership survival, focus…
No sorting, no advantage: Regression discontinuity estimates of incumbency advantage in Japan
Identifying the effect of mobilization on voter turnout through a natural experiment
Explaining opposition to refugee resettlement: The role of Nimbyism and perceived threats
Support for refugee resettlement declines when citizens consider resettlement within their communities or face threatening frames.
Compulsory Voting and Income Inequality: Evidence for Lijphart's Proposition from Venezuela
What difference does it make if the state makes people vote? The question is central to normative debates about the rights and duties of citizens in a democracy, and to contemporary policy debates in a number of Latin American countries over what actions states should take to encourage electoral participation. Focusing on a rare case of abolishing compulsory voting in Venezuela, this article shows that not forcing people to vote yielded a more un…
Who wants to hire a more diverse faculty? A conjoint analysis of faculty and student preferences for gender and racial/ethnic diversity
What explains the scarcity of women and under-represented minorities among university faculty relative to their share of Ph.D. recipients? Among many potential explanations, we focus on the “demand” side of faculty diversity. Using fully randomized conjoint analysis, we explore patterns of support for, and resistance to, the hiring of faculty candidates from different social groups at two large public universities in the U.S. We find that faculty…
America's Role in the Making of Japan's Economic Miracle
Japan's remarkable postwar growth spurt in the 1960s would not have been possible without Japan's alliance with the United States. Policy makers, political scientists, economists, historians, and journalists on both sides of the Pacific have made this claim, but no study has yet tested it with modern statistical methods. In this article, we compare the economic growth trajectories of Japan and a statistically constructed “synthetic” Japan, which …
Has Trump Damaged the U.S. Image Abroad? Decomposing the Effects of Policy Messages on Foreign Public Opinion
Measuring Voters’ Multidimensional Policy Preferences with Conjoint Analysis: Application to Japan’s 2014 Election
Representative democracy entails the aggregation of multiple policy issues by parties into competing bundles of policies, or “manifestos,” which are then evaluated holistically by voters in elections. This aggregation process obscures themultidimensionalpolicy preferences underlying a voter’ssinglechoice of party or candidate. We address this problem through a conjoint experiment based on the actual party manifestos in Japan’s 2014 House of Repre…
Why Should the Republicans Pray for Rain? Electoral Consequences of Rainfall Revisited
Existing studies—most importantly, Gomez, Hansford, and Krause—provide empirical support for an idea often embraced by popular media: The vote share of the Republican Party (as the percentage of total votes) increases when it rains, because the magnitude of decrease in turnout is larger among Democratic vis-à-vis Republican supporters. Considering the compositional nature of aggregated data, we show that the alleged Republican advantage derives i…
Partisan motivated reasoning and misinformation in the media: Is news from ideologically uncongenial sources more suspicious
In recent years, concerns about misinformation in the media have skyrocketed. President Donald Trump has repeatedly claimed that various news outlets are disseminating ‘fake news’ for political purposes. But when the information contained in mainstream media news reports provides no clear clues about its truth value or any indication of a partisan slant, do people rely on the congeniality of the news outlet to judge whether the information is tru…
Political science (46 works) · Law (38 works) · Politics (35 works) · Law (32 works) · Economics (27 works) · Sociology (26 works) · Electoral Systems and Political Participation (23 works) · Psychology (21 works) · Political economy (20 works) · Public opinion (16 works)