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Carla Martinez Machain

Biographic Data

ID315515
NAMECarla Martinez Machain
GIVEN NAMESCarla Martinez
FAMILY NAMEMachain
SIGNATUREMACHAIN C M
AFFILIATIONSKansas State University
ORCID0000-0001-6821-4062
VERIFIEDYes
TOTAL WORKS26
TOTAL CITATIONS207
AUTHOR COUNT26
EDITOR COUNT0
FIRST PUBLICATION YEAR2011
LATEST PUBLICATION YEAR2026
H-INDEX8
  • From Training to Influence: The Role of U.S. Military Training in Turkish Officers’ Decisions

    Open Access•İlker Kalın, Carla Martinez Machain•ARTICLE•Journal of Conflict Resolution•2026

    How does U.S. military education build influence among foreign officers? This study proposes two theoretical pathways from training to influence. The extrinsic pathway is based on material incentives for cooperation and acceptance of the U.S.-led hierarchy. In contrast, the intrinsic pathway relies on interpersonal networks based on trust and reciprocity expectations. The study argues for the latter: Cooperation by U.S.-trained officers occurs no…

  • At the edge of war: Frontline ally support for the United States military 1

    Michael A Allen, Michael E Flynn et al.•ARTICLE•International Interactions•2025•References: 8

    How does public messaging affect public support for, or opposition to, a U.S. military presence abroad? This study focuses on Poland as a frontline ally with an exceptionally high external security threat and a U.S. military presence. Using a pre-registered survey experiment, we explore how the U.S. is able to maintain strong and robust support for its military presence in Poland. We do so by analyzing how contextual prompts concerning external s…

  • Shifting police strategies: US aid and repression by public safety institutions in Latin America

    Paola Fajardo‐heyward, Ghashia Kiyani et al.•ARTICLE•Journal of Human Rights•2024•Cited by: 2•References: 33

    This article studies the international determinants of extrajudicial police killings in Latin America. Human rights violations by security forces are a problem that has plagued Latin American countries, despite broad democratization efforts in the region. Addressing the problem requires a better understanding of the processes that underlie it. Although existing literature has explored the determinants of police repression in Latin America through…

  • School of influence: Human rights challenges in US foreign military training

    Open Access•Carla Martinez Machain•ARTICLE•Conflict Management and Peace…•2023•Cited by: 3•References: 9

    Can military training decrease human rights violations by security forces? The case of foreign military training is a complicated one because often the aim of the training itself is to address human rights violations. In this paper I explore whether US military training is effective in promoting respect for human rights in the recipient country. States that receive human rights-focused military training and education only see an improvement in re…

  • Air Power, International Organizations, and Civilian Casualties in Afghanistan

    Open Access•Susan Hannah Allen, Susan Allen et al.•ARTICLE•Armed Forces & Society•2023•Cited by: 4•References: 9

    Can the presence of international organizations reduce civilian deaths caused by aerial bombing? This commentary examines this question in the specific context of the U.S.-led war in Afghanistan. We evaluate this based on interviews conducted with members of international organizations that were present in Afghanistan during the conflict, existing intergovernmental organizations, nongovernmental organizations, and government reports, and with qua…

  • US Military Aid, Political Risk Insurance, and Foreign Direct Investment: Overcoming Obstacles to US Foreign Policy

    Shannon Lindsey Blanton, Shannon Blanton et al.•ARTICLE•Journal of Political & Military…•2022

    How do national security interests influence outbound foreign direct investment (FDI)? FDI is a major part of the global economy, and a great deal of research has been devoted to understanding the economic and sociopolitical factors that make a country a more (or less) attractive recipient of FDI. However, less attention has been paid to the role of home-country interests, particularly in the realm of national security, in influencing such invest…

  • Air Power, NGOs, and Collateral Killings

    Open Access•Susan Hannah Allen, Sam R Bell et al.•ARTICLE•Foreign Policy Analysis•2021•Cited by: 3•References: 23

    Air strikes have become an essential tool in major powers’ military arsenals. Yet, despite the precise technology that air power represents, its use can also result in unintended killings. In this paper, we explore how air strikes affect civilian killings as collateral damage by third party interveners. In particular, we argue that this effect is conditioned by the presence of non-governmental civil society actors on the ground. We thus explore h…

  • US global military deployments, 1950–2020

    Open Access•Michael A Allen, Michael E Flynn et al.•ARTICLE•Conflict Management and Peace…•2021•Cited by: 8•References: 14

    Recent research has shown the importance of studying military deployments and their effects on a wide range of social, political, and economic outcomes. In particular, it has demonstrated how the US has shaped the international system through the largest, and most enduring, military footprint in the twentieth and twenty-first centuries. However, data on US military deployments have been limited in scope and are often difficult to access, making i…

  • An International Game of Risk: Troop Placement and Major Power Competition

    Mark David Nieman, Carla Martinez Machain et al.•ARTICLE•The Journal of Politics•2021•Cited by: 5•References: 39

    What strategies are behind major powers' decisions to deploy forces abroad? We argue that major powers use noninvasion troop deployments to create, consolidate, and expand their spheres of influence around the world, while at the same time trying to prevent their major power rivals from doing the same. This results in an action-reaction process, in which each additional major power troop placement happens as a strategic response to recent and ant…

  • Exporting Influence: U.S. Military Training as Soft Power

    Open Access•Carla Martinez Machain•ARTICLE•Journal of Conflict Resolution•2020•Cited by: 27•References: 45

    The US engages in extensive training and education of foreign militaries, often through exchange programs carried out at the different military services’ staff and war colleges. Researchers have recently explored the way in which military training can affect civil-military relations in the host country, but not much work has studied whether military training actually leads to increased US influence in these states. This paper proposes a soft-powe…

  • Outside the Wire: U.S. Military Deployments and Public Opinion in Host States

    Open Access•Michael A Allen, Michael E Flynn et al.•ARTICLE•American Political Science Review•2020•Cited by: 27•References: 50

    How do citizens within countries hosting U.S. military personnel view that presence? Using new cross-national survey data from 14 countries, we examine how different forms of exposure to a U.S. military presence in a country affect attitudes toward the U.S. military, government, and people. We find that contact with U.S. military personnel or the receipt of economic benefits from the U.S. presence correlates with stronger support for the U.S. pre…

  • Outside the Wire: US Military Deployments and Public Opinion in Host States

    Open Access•Michael A Allen, Michael E Flynn et al.•ARTICLE•SSRN Electronic Journal•2019

  • The Human Cost of the Weapons Trade: Small Arms Transfers and Recipient State Homicide

    Open Access•Carla Martinez Machain, Jeffrey Pickering•ARTICLE•Journal of Global Security Studies•2019•References: 21

    Empirical research has increasingly turned its attention to ways that international phenomena impact the human condition within countries. International influences have been shown to affect human rights, health, and quality of life within societies. They may also impact microlevel phenomena such as violent criminal behavior. In this study, we build on such recent scholarship and research that bridges the theoretical and empirical gap between inte…

  • Building Trust: The Effect of US Troop Deployments on Public Opinion in Peru

    Open Access•Michael E Flynn, Carla Martinez Machain et al.•ARTICLE•International Studies Quarterly•2019•Cited by: 8•References: 37

    Since the 1950s, US military personnel have taken on an increasingly diverse set of responsibilities, including less traditional roles delivering disaster aid and engaging in public diplomacy. Focusing on a particular subset of deployments, humanitarian and civic-assistance deployments to Latin America, we examine the effect that a US military presence can have on public opinion in the host country. We focus on the microfoundations of popular sup…

  • Choosing Air Strikes

    Susan Hannah Allen, Carla Martinez Machain•ARTICLE•Journal of Global Security Studies•2018•Cited by: 4•References: 26

    Under what conditions do states choose to use only air power? Air strikes are one of many tools states use to promote their interests in the international system. Given that not all policy tools are appropriate for all crises, we explore when states choose to use air strikes as a coercive tool. We empirically test both common perceptions and newly derived hypotheses on the characteristics of states that employ air-only campaigns and the settings …

  • Democracy, Transparency, and Secrecy in Crisis

    Open Access•Sam R Bell, Carla Martinez Machain•ARTICLE•Foreign Policy Analysis•2018•Cited by: 2•References: 32

    Why is it that some democracies are able to effectively engage in secrecy and mobilize their forces privately, while others are unable to keep enough information secret to effectively carry out such an attack? Recent work by Colaresi (2014) suggests that a democracy's ability to keep information secret depends on its retrospective oversight institutions, which allow democracies to keep information secret in the present with the promise of reveali…

  • U.N. Peacekeeping Forces and the Demand for Sex Trafficking

    Open Access•Sam R Bell, Michael E Flynn et al.•ARTICLE•International Studies Quarterly•2018•Cited by: 16•References: 40

    U.N. peacekeeping missions succeed in preventing the resumption of conflict and saving lives. At the same time, a series of sexual exploitation and abuse scandals since the early 2000s has raised concerns about the conduct of peacekeepers. We examine a related, but generally overlooked, potential negative externality of peacekeeping missions: the forced trafficking of sex workers. We argue that U.N. peacekeepers increase demand for sex work and t…

  • Understanding the impact of air power

    Open Access•Susan Hannah Allen, Carla Martinez Machain•ARTICLE•Conflict Management and Peace…•2017•Cited by: 10•References: 6

    With a lower risk of casualties and a high degree of precision, air power is an attractive foreign policy tool to powerful states that have increasingly relied upon it in recent years. This paper presents newly collected data on uses and effectiveness of air power in interstate wars from 1914 to 2003. The dataset provides more complete and comparable cases that can be useful in answering questions of not only the coercive effectiveness of air pow…

  • The Effect of US Troop Deployments on Human Rights

    Open Access•Sam R Bell, K Chad Clay et al.•ARTICLE•Journal of Conflict Resolution•2017•Cited by: 30•References: 41

    US noninvasion troops deployed abroad often try to promote greater respect for human rights in the host country. The host country, having an incentive to retain the troop presence, may choose to comply with these requests. We argue that this effect will not be at play in states with high security salience for the United States (US) (for which the US may not be able to credibly threaten to remove the troops). In these cases, US deployments will pr…

  • Does counterterrorism militarize foreign aid? Evidence from sub-Saharan Africa

    Open Access•Tobias Heinrich, Carla Martinez Machain et al.•ARTICLE•Journal of Peace Research•2017•Cited by: 3•References: 68

    This article studies whether the pursuit of counterterrorism militarizes foreign aid flows. It focuses on the case of US foreign aid to sub-Saharan African states, which recently have experienced an increase in the presence of al-Qaeda or its affiliate terrorist organizations. This article argues that as terrorist groups carry out attacks inside a state's territory, aid towards that state will serve such counterterrorism goals. For one, the state…

  • Domestic diversion and strategic behavior by minority groups

    Open Access•Carla Martinez Machain, Leo Rosenberg•ARTICLE•Conflict Management and Peace…•2016•Cited by: 7•References: 52

    Diversionary war theory states that leaders may initiate an international conflict in order to invoke internal cohesion and distract the public from domestic issues. Recent developments in diversionary literature suggest the possibility that leaders can alternately divert against domestic targets, such as minority groups. Empirical support for domestic diversion, though, has been mixed. In this paper we seek to reconcile this by further examining…

  • Militarism and Dual-Conflict Capacity

    Matthew Wilson, Matthew C Wilson et al.•ARTICLE•International Interactions•2016•References: 35

    This research note examines how domestic institutions can moderate the relationship between domestic and interstate conflict involvement. Previous work has found that military dictatorships are more likely to become involved in either domestic or international conflicts, compared to party-based autocracies. We argue that the same institutional explanations for why military autocracies are more conflict-prone also make them less capable of success…

  • Air Campaign Duration and the Interaction of Air and Ground Forces

    Carla Martinez Machain•ARTICLE•International Interactions•2015•Cited by: 10•References: 16

    This article explores the role that ground troops play in aerial campaigns. Specifically, it intends to explain how ground troops affect the duration of aerial bombing campaigns. It distinguishes between the effect of ground troops on the duration of aerial campaigns that are selective and on those that are more general and less discriminate (using newly coded data on aerial strategies). The effect of ground troops may vary depending on how air p…

  • Major Powers and Militarized Conflict

    Open Access•Daina Chiba, Carla Martinez Machain et al.•ARTICLE•Journal of Conflict Resolution•2014•Cited by: 17•References: 32

    This article attempts to answer the question of why major powers engage in more active foreign policy behaviors than minor powers. It does so by comparing two explanations for the increased conflict propensity of major powers. The first explanation focuses on major powers’ observable capabilities, while the second stresses their different behavior. We incorporate both into an ultimatum model of conflict in which a state’s cost of conflict consist…

  • The Effect of US Troop Deployment on Host States' Foreign Policy

    Open Access•Carla Martinez Machain, T Clifton Morgan•ARTICLE•Armed Forces & Society•2013•Cited by: 17

    Major powers often deploy troops abroad with the consent of host states. The stated aim of these deployments is often both to protect the host state and to foster stability in the region. Drawing from an extension of Palmer and Morgan's two-good theory of foreign policy, the authors explore some of the (perhaps unintended) effects of troop deployments abroad on the foreign policies of the host states. In particular, the authors focus on the effec…

Next
  • The Effect of US Troop Deployments on Human Rights

    Open Access•Sam R Bell, K Chad Clay et al.•ARTICLE•Journal of Conflict Resolution•2017•Cited by: 30•References: 41

    US noninvasion troops deployed abroad often try to promote greater respect for human rights in the host country. The host country, having an incentive to retain the troop presence, may choose to comply with these requests. We argue that this effect will not be at play in states with high security salience for the United States (US) (for which the US may not be able to credibly threaten to remove the troops). In these cases, US deployments will pr…

  • Exporting Influence: U.S. Military Training as Soft Power

    Open Access•Carla Martinez Machain•ARTICLE•Journal of Conflict Resolution•2020•Cited by: 27•References: 45

    The US engages in extensive training and education of foreign militaries, often through exchange programs carried out at the different military services’ staff and war colleges. Researchers have recently explored the way in which military training can affect civil-military relations in the host country, but not much work has studied whether military training actually leads to increased US influence in these states. This paper proposes a soft-powe…

  • Outside the Wire: U.S. Military Deployments and Public Opinion in Host States

    Open Access•Michael A Allen, Michael E Flynn et al.•ARTICLE•American Political Science Review•2020•Cited by: 27•References: 50

    How do citizens within countries hosting U.S. military personnel view that presence? Using new cross-national survey data from 14 countries, we examine how different forms of exposure to a U.S. military presence in a country affect attitudes toward the U.S. military, government, and people. We find that contact with U.S. military personnel or the receipt of economic benefits from the U.S. presence correlates with stronger support for the U.S. pre…

  • Major Powers and Militarized Conflict

    Open Access•Daina Chiba, Carla Martinez Machain et al.•ARTICLE•Journal of Conflict Resolution•2014•Cited by: 17•References: 32

    This article attempts to answer the question of why major powers engage in more active foreign policy behaviors than minor powers. It does so by comparing two explanations for the increased conflict propensity of major powers. The first explanation focuses on major powers’ observable capabilities, while the second stresses their different behavior. We incorporate both into an ultimatum model of conflict in which a state’s cost of conflict consist…

  • The Effect of US Troop Deployment on Host States' Foreign Policy

    Open Access•Carla Martinez Machain, T Clifton Morgan•ARTICLE•Armed Forces & Society•2013•Cited by: 17

    Major powers often deploy troops abroad with the consent of host states. The stated aim of these deployments is often both to protect the host state and to foster stability in the region. Drawing from an extension of Palmer and Morgan's two-good theory of foreign policy, the authors explore some of the (perhaps unintended) effects of troop deployments abroad on the foreign policies of the host states. In particular, the authors focus on the effec…

  • U.N. Peacekeeping Forces and the Demand for Sex Trafficking

    Open Access•Sam R Bell, Michael E Flynn et al.•ARTICLE•International Studies Quarterly•2018•Cited by: 16•References: 40

    U.N. peacekeeping missions succeed in preventing the resumption of conflict and saving lives. At the same time, a series of sexual exploitation and abuse scandals since the early 2000s has raised concerns about the conduct of peacekeepers. We examine a related, but generally overlooked, potential negative externality of peacekeeping missions: the forced trafficking of sex workers. We argue that U.N. peacekeepers increase demand for sex work and t…

  • Understanding the impact of air power

    Open Access•Susan Hannah Allen, Carla Martinez Machain•ARTICLE•Conflict Management and Peace…•2017•Cited by: 10•References: 6

    With a lower risk of casualties and a high degree of precision, air power is an attractive foreign policy tool to powerful states that have increasingly relied upon it in recent years. This paper presents newly collected data on uses and effectiveness of air power in interstate wars from 1914 to 2003. The dataset provides more complete and comparable cases that can be useful in answering questions of not only the coercive effectiveness of air pow…

  • Air Campaign Duration and the Interaction of Air and Ground Forces

    Carla Martinez Machain•ARTICLE•International Interactions•2015•Cited by: 10•References: 16

    This article explores the role that ground troops play in aerial campaigns. Specifically, it intends to explain how ground troops affect the duration of aerial bombing campaigns. It distinguishes between the effect of ground troops on the duration of aerial campaigns that are selective and on those that are more general and less discriminate (using newly coded data on aerial strategies). The effect of ground troops may vary depending on how air p…

  • US global military deployments, 1950–2020

    Open Access•Michael A Allen, Michael E Flynn et al.•ARTICLE•Conflict Management and Peace…•2021•Cited by: 8•References: 14

    Recent research has shown the importance of studying military deployments and their effects on a wide range of social, political, and economic outcomes. In particular, it has demonstrated how the US has shaped the international system through the largest, and most enduring, military footprint in the twentieth and twenty-first centuries. However, data on US military deployments have been limited in scope and are often difficult to access, making i…

  • Building Trust: The Effect of US Troop Deployments on Public Opinion in Peru

    Open Access•Michael E Flynn, Carla Martinez Machain et al.•ARTICLE•International Studies Quarterly•2019•Cited by: 8•References: 37

    Since the 1950s, US military personnel have taken on an increasingly diverse set of responsibilities, including less traditional roles delivering disaster aid and engaging in public diplomacy. Focusing on a particular subset of deployments, humanitarian and civic-assistance deployments to Latin America, we examine the effect that a US military presence can have on public opinion in the host country. We focus on the microfoundations of popular sup…

  • Domestic diversion and strategic behavior by minority groups

    Open Access•Carla Martinez Machain, Leo Rosenberg•ARTICLE•Conflict Management and Peace…•2016•Cited by: 7•References: 52

    Diversionary war theory states that leaders may initiate an international conflict in order to invoke internal cohesion and distract the public from domestic issues. Recent developments in diversionary literature suggest the possibility that leaders can alternately divert against domestic targets, such as minority groups. Empirical support for domestic diversion, though, has been mixed. In this paper we seek to reconcile this by further examining…

  • An International Game of Risk: Troop Placement and Major Power Competition

    Mark David Nieman, Carla Martinez Machain et al.•ARTICLE•The Journal of Politics•2021•Cited by: 5•References: 39

    What strategies are behind major powers' decisions to deploy forces abroad? We argue that major powers use noninvasion troop deployments to create, consolidate, and expand their spheres of influence around the world, while at the same time trying to prevent their major power rivals from doing the same. This results in an action-reaction process, in which each additional major power troop placement happens as a strategic response to recent and ant…

  • Air Power, International Organizations, and Civilian Casualties in Afghanistan

    Open Access•Susan Hannah Allen, Susan Allen et al.•ARTICLE•Armed Forces & Society•2023•Cited by: 4•References: 9

    Can the presence of international organizations reduce civilian deaths caused by aerial bombing? This commentary examines this question in the specific context of the U.S.-led war in Afghanistan. We evaluate this based on interviews conducted with members of international organizations that were present in Afghanistan during the conflict, existing intergovernmental organizations, nongovernmental organizations, and government reports, and with qua…

  • Choosing Air Strikes

    Susan Hannah Allen, Carla Martinez Machain•ARTICLE•Journal of Global Security Studies•2018•Cited by: 4•References: 26

    Under what conditions do states choose to use only air power? Air strikes are one of many tools states use to promote their interests in the international system. Given that not all policy tools are appropriate for all crises, we explore when states choose to use air strikes as a coercive tool. We empirically test both common perceptions and newly derived hypotheses on the characteristics of states that employ air-only campaigns and the settings …

  • Deterring Rebellion: Deterring Rebellion

    Open Access•Carla Martinez Machain, T Clifton Morgan et al.•ARTICLE•Foreign Policy Analysis•2011•Cited by: 4•References: 21

    Journal Article Deterring Rebellion Get access Carla Martinez Machain, Carla Martinez Machain Rice University Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Scholar T. Clifton Morgan, T. Clifton Morgan Rice University Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Scholar Patrick M. Regan Patrick M. Regan Binghamton University Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Scholar Foreign Poli…

  • School of influence: Human rights challenges in US foreign military training

    Open Access•Carla Martinez Machain•ARTICLE•Conflict Management and Peace…•2023•Cited by: 3•References: 9

    Can military training decrease human rights violations by security forces? The case of foreign military training is a complicated one because often the aim of the training itself is to address human rights violations. In this paper I explore whether US military training is effective in promoting respect for human rights in the recipient country. States that receive human rights-focused military training and education only see an improvement in re…

  • Air Power, NGOs, and Collateral Killings

    Open Access•Susan Hannah Allen, Sam R Bell et al.•ARTICLE•Foreign Policy Analysis•2021•Cited by: 3•References: 23

    Air strikes have become an essential tool in major powers’ military arsenals. Yet, despite the precise technology that air power represents, its use can also result in unintended killings. In this paper, we explore how air strikes affect civilian killings as collateral damage by third party interveners. In particular, we argue that this effect is conditioned by the presence of non-governmental civil society actors on the ground. We thus explore h…

  • Does counterterrorism militarize foreign aid? Evidence from sub-Saharan Africa

    Open Access•Tobias Heinrich, Carla Martinez Machain et al.•ARTICLE•Journal of Peace Research•2017•Cited by: 3•References: 68

    This article studies whether the pursuit of counterterrorism militarizes foreign aid flows. It focuses on the case of US foreign aid to sub-Saharan African states, which recently have experienced an increase in the presence of al-Qaeda or its affiliate terrorist organizations. This article argues that as terrorist groups carry out attacks inside a state's territory, aid towards that state will serve such counterterrorism goals. For one, the state…

  • Shifting police strategies: US aid and repression by public safety institutions in Latin America

    Paola Fajardo‐heyward, Ghashia Kiyani et al.•ARTICLE•Journal of Human Rights•2024•Cited by: 2•References: 33

    This article studies the international determinants of extrajudicial police killings in Latin America. Human rights violations by security forces are a problem that has plagued Latin American countries, despite broad democratization efforts in the region. Addressing the problem requires a better understanding of the processes that underlie it. Although existing literature has explored the determinants of police repression in Latin America through…

  • Democracy, Transparency, and Secrecy in Crisis

    Open Access•Sam R Bell, Carla Martinez Machain•ARTICLE•Foreign Policy Analysis•2018•Cited by: 2•References: 32

    Why is it that some democracies are able to effectively engage in secrecy and mobilize their forces privately, while others are unable to keep enough information secret to effectively carry out such an attack? Recent work by Colaresi (2014) suggests that a democracy's ability to keep information secret depends on its retrospective oversight institutions, which allow democracies to keep information secret in the present with the promise of reveali…

  • Deterring Rebellion: Deterring Rebellion

    Open Access•Carla Martinez Machain, T Clifton Morgan et al.•ARTICLE•Foreign Policy Analysis•2011•Cited by: 4•References: 21

    Journal Article Deterring Rebellion Get access Carla Martinez Machain, Carla Martinez Machain Rice University Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Scholar T. Clifton Morgan, T. Clifton Morgan Rice University Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Scholar Patrick M. Regan Patrick M. Regan Binghamton University Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Scholar Foreign Poli…

  • The Effect of US Troop Deployment on Host States' Foreign Policy

    Open Access•Carla Martinez Machain, T Clifton Morgan•ARTICLE•Armed Forces & Society•2013•Cited by: 17

    Major powers often deploy troops abroad with the consent of host states. The stated aim of these deployments is often both to protect the host state and to foster stability in the region. Drawing from an extension of Palmer and Morgan's two-good theory of foreign policy, the authors explore some of the (perhaps unintended) effects of troop deployments abroad on the foreign policies of the host states. In particular, the authors focus on the effec…

  • Major Powers and Militarized Conflict

    Open Access•Daina Chiba, Carla Martinez Machain et al.•ARTICLE•Journal of Conflict Resolution•2014•Cited by: 17•References: 32

    This article attempts to answer the question of why major powers engage in more active foreign policy behaviors than minor powers. It does so by comparing two explanations for the increased conflict propensity of major powers. The first explanation focuses on major powers’ observable capabilities, while the second stresses their different behavior. We incorporate both into an ultimatum model of conflict in which a state’s cost of conflict consist…

  • Air Campaign Duration and the Interaction of Air and Ground Forces

    Carla Martinez Machain•ARTICLE•International Interactions•2015•Cited by: 10•References: 16

    This article explores the role that ground troops play in aerial campaigns. Specifically, it intends to explain how ground troops affect the duration of aerial bombing campaigns. It distinguishes between the effect of ground troops on the duration of aerial campaigns that are selective and on those that are more general and less discriminate (using newly coded data on aerial strategies). The effect of ground troops may vary depending on how air p…

  • Domestic diversion and strategic behavior by minority groups

    Open Access•Carla Martinez Machain, Leo Rosenberg•ARTICLE•Conflict Management and Peace…•2016•Cited by: 7•References: 52

    Diversionary war theory states that leaders may initiate an international conflict in order to invoke internal cohesion and distract the public from domestic issues. Recent developments in diversionary literature suggest the possibility that leaders can alternately divert against domestic targets, such as minority groups. Empirical support for domestic diversion, though, has been mixed. In this paper we seek to reconcile this by further examining…

  • Militarism and Dual-Conflict Capacity

    Matthew Wilson, Matthew C Wilson et al.•ARTICLE•International Interactions•2016•References: 35

    This research note examines how domestic institutions can moderate the relationship between domestic and interstate conflict involvement. Previous work has found that military dictatorships are more likely to become involved in either domestic or international conflicts, compared to party-based autocracies. We argue that the same institutional explanations for why military autocracies are more conflict-prone also make them less capable of success…

  • Understanding the impact of air power

    Open Access•Susan Hannah Allen, Carla Martinez Machain•ARTICLE•Conflict Management and Peace…•2017•Cited by: 10•References: 6

    With a lower risk of casualties and a high degree of precision, air power is an attractive foreign policy tool to powerful states that have increasingly relied upon it in recent years. This paper presents newly collected data on uses and effectiveness of air power in interstate wars from 1914 to 2003. The dataset provides more complete and comparable cases that can be useful in answering questions of not only the coercive effectiveness of air pow…

  • The Effect of US Troop Deployments on Human Rights

    Open Access•Sam R Bell, K Chad Clay et al.•ARTICLE•Journal of Conflict Resolution•2017•Cited by: 30•References: 41

    US noninvasion troops deployed abroad often try to promote greater respect for human rights in the host country. The host country, having an incentive to retain the troop presence, may choose to comply with these requests. We argue that this effect will not be at play in states with high security salience for the United States (US) (for which the US may not be able to credibly threaten to remove the troops). In these cases, US deployments will pr…

  • Does counterterrorism militarize foreign aid? Evidence from sub-Saharan Africa

    Open Access•Tobias Heinrich, Carla Martinez Machain et al.•ARTICLE•Journal of Peace Research•2017•Cited by: 3•References: 68

    This article studies whether the pursuit of counterterrorism militarizes foreign aid flows. It focuses on the case of US foreign aid to sub-Saharan African states, which recently have experienced an increase in the presence of al-Qaeda or its affiliate terrorist organizations. This article argues that as terrorist groups carry out attacks inside a state's territory, aid towards that state will serve such counterterrorism goals. For one, the state…

  • Choosing Air Strikes

    Susan Hannah Allen, Carla Martinez Machain•ARTICLE•Journal of Global Security Studies•2018•Cited by: 4•References: 26

    Under what conditions do states choose to use only air power? Air strikes are one of many tools states use to promote their interests in the international system. Given that not all policy tools are appropriate for all crises, we explore when states choose to use air strikes as a coercive tool. We empirically test both common perceptions and newly derived hypotheses on the characteristics of states that employ air-only campaigns and the settings …

  • Democracy, Transparency, and Secrecy in Crisis

    Open Access•Sam R Bell, Carla Martinez Machain•ARTICLE•Foreign Policy Analysis•2018•Cited by: 2•References: 32

    Why is it that some democracies are able to effectively engage in secrecy and mobilize their forces privately, while others are unable to keep enough information secret to effectively carry out such an attack? Recent work by Colaresi (2014) suggests that a democracy's ability to keep information secret depends on its retrospective oversight institutions, which allow democracies to keep information secret in the present with the promise of reveali…

  • U.N. Peacekeeping Forces and the Demand for Sex Trafficking

    Open Access•Sam R Bell, Michael E Flynn et al.•ARTICLE•International Studies Quarterly•2018•Cited by: 16•References: 40

    U.N. peacekeeping missions succeed in preventing the resumption of conflict and saving lives. At the same time, a series of sexual exploitation and abuse scandals since the early 2000s has raised concerns about the conduct of peacekeepers. We examine a related, but generally overlooked, potential negative externality of peacekeeping missions: the forced trafficking of sex workers. We argue that U.N. peacekeepers increase demand for sex work and t…

  • Outside the Wire: US Military Deployments and Public Opinion in Host States

    Open Access•Michael A Allen, Michael E Flynn et al.•ARTICLE•SSRN Electronic Journal•2019

  • The Human Cost of the Weapons Trade: Small Arms Transfers and Recipient State Homicide

    Open Access•Carla Martinez Machain, Jeffrey Pickering•ARTICLE•Journal of Global Security Studies•2019•References: 21

    Empirical research has increasingly turned its attention to ways that international phenomena impact the human condition within countries. International influences have been shown to affect human rights, health, and quality of life within societies. They may also impact microlevel phenomena such as violent criminal behavior. In this study, we build on such recent scholarship and research that bridges the theoretical and empirical gap between inte…

  • Building Trust: The Effect of US Troop Deployments on Public Opinion in Peru

    Open Access•Michael E Flynn, Carla Martinez Machain et al.•ARTICLE•International Studies Quarterly•2019•Cited by: 8•References: 37

    Since the 1950s, US military personnel have taken on an increasingly diverse set of responsibilities, including less traditional roles delivering disaster aid and engaging in public diplomacy. Focusing on a particular subset of deployments, humanitarian and civic-assistance deployments to Latin America, we examine the effect that a US military presence can have on public opinion in the host country. We focus on the microfoundations of popular sup…

  • Exporting Influence: U.S. Military Training as Soft Power

    Open Access•Carla Martinez Machain•ARTICLE•Journal of Conflict Resolution•2020•Cited by: 27•References: 45

    The US engages in extensive training and education of foreign militaries, often through exchange programs carried out at the different military services’ staff and war colleges. Researchers have recently explored the way in which military training can affect civil-military relations in the host country, but not much work has studied whether military training actually leads to increased US influence in these states. This paper proposes a soft-powe…

  • Outside the Wire: U.S. Military Deployments and Public Opinion in Host States

    Open Access•Michael A Allen, Michael E Flynn et al.•ARTICLE•American Political Science Review•2020•Cited by: 27•References: 50

    How do citizens within countries hosting U.S. military personnel view that presence? Using new cross-national survey data from 14 countries, we examine how different forms of exposure to a U.S. military presence in a country affect attitudes toward the U.S. military, government, and people. We find that contact with U.S. military personnel or the receipt of economic benefits from the U.S. presence correlates with stronger support for the U.S. pre…

  • Air Power, NGOs, and Collateral Killings

    Open Access•Susan Hannah Allen, Sam R Bell et al.•ARTICLE•Foreign Policy Analysis•2021•Cited by: 3•References: 23

    Air strikes have become an essential tool in major powers’ military arsenals. Yet, despite the precise technology that air power represents, its use can also result in unintended killings. In this paper, we explore how air strikes affect civilian killings as collateral damage by third party interveners. In particular, we argue that this effect is conditioned by the presence of non-governmental civil society actors on the ground. We thus explore h…

  • US global military deployments, 1950–2020

    Open Access•Michael A Allen, Michael E Flynn et al.•ARTICLE•Conflict Management and Peace…•2021•Cited by: 8•References: 14

    Recent research has shown the importance of studying military deployments and their effects on a wide range of social, political, and economic outcomes. In particular, it has demonstrated how the US has shaped the international system through the largest, and most enduring, military footprint in the twentieth and twenty-first centuries. However, data on US military deployments have been limited in scope and are often difficult to access, making i…

  • An International Game of Risk: Troop Placement and Major Power Competition

    Mark David Nieman, Carla Martinez Machain et al.•ARTICLE•The Journal of Politics•2021•Cited by: 5•References: 39

    What strategies are behind major powers' decisions to deploy forces abroad? We argue that major powers use noninvasion troop deployments to create, consolidate, and expand their spheres of influence around the world, while at the same time trying to prevent their major power rivals from doing the same. This results in an action-reaction process, in which each additional major power troop placement happens as a strategic response to recent and ant…

  • US Military Aid, Political Risk Insurance, and Foreign Direct Investment: Overcoming Obstacles to US Foreign Policy

    Shannon Lindsey Blanton, Shannon Blanton et al.•ARTICLE•Journal of Political & Military…•2022

    How do national security interests influence outbound foreign direct investment (FDI)? FDI is a major part of the global economy, and a great deal of research has been devoted to understanding the economic and sociopolitical factors that make a country a more (or less) attractive recipient of FDI. However, less attention has been paid to the role of home-country interests, particularly in the realm of national security, in influencing such invest…

  • School of influence: Human rights challenges in US foreign military training

    Open Access•Carla Martinez Machain•ARTICLE•Conflict Management and Peace…•2023•Cited by: 3•References: 9

    Can military training decrease human rights violations by security forces? The case of foreign military training is a complicated one because often the aim of the training itself is to address human rights violations. In this paper I explore whether US military training is effective in promoting respect for human rights in the recipient country. States that receive human rights-focused military training and education only see an improvement in re…

  • Air Power, International Organizations, and Civilian Casualties in Afghanistan

    Open Access•Susan Hannah Allen, Susan Allen et al.•ARTICLE•Armed Forces & Society•2023•Cited by: 4•References: 9

    Can the presence of international organizations reduce civilian deaths caused by aerial bombing? This commentary examines this question in the specific context of the U.S.-led war in Afghanistan. We evaluate this based on interviews conducted with members of international organizations that were present in Afghanistan during the conflict, existing intergovernmental organizations, nongovernmental organizations, and government reports, and with qua…

  • Shifting police strategies: US aid and repression by public safety institutions in Latin America

    Paola Fajardo‐heyward, Ghashia Kiyani et al.•ARTICLE•Journal of Human Rights•2024•Cited by: 2•References: 33

    This article studies the international determinants of extrajudicial police killings in Latin America. Human rights violations by security forces are a problem that has plagued Latin American countries, despite broad democratization efforts in the region. Addressing the problem requires a better understanding of the processes that underlie it. Although existing literature has explored the determinants of police repression in Latin America through…

  • At the edge of war: Frontline ally support for the United States military 1

    Michael A Allen, Michael E Flynn et al.•ARTICLE•International Interactions•2025•References: 8

    How does public messaging affect public support for, or opposition to, a U.S. military presence abroad? This study focuses on Poland as a frontline ally with an exceptionally high external security threat and a U.S. military presence. Using a pre-registered survey experiment, we explore how the U.S. is able to maintain strong and robust support for its military presence in Poland. We do so by analyzing how contextual prompts concerning external s…

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