Jonathan P Caulkins
Biographic Data
| ID | 332625 |
|---|---|
| NAME | Jonathan P Caulkins |
| GIVEN NAMES | Jonathan P |
| FAMILY NAME | Caulkins |
| SIGNATURE | CAULKINS J P |
| AFFILIATIONS | Heinz College, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania |
| VERIFIED | No |
| TOTAL WORKS | 25 |
| TOTAL CITATIONS | 50 |
| AUTHOR COUNT | 25 |
| EDITOR COUNT | 0 |
| FIRST PUBLICATION YEAR | 1992 |
| LATEST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2025 |
| H-INDEX | 4 |
Improving Opioid Use Estimates Through Multiple Data Sources
Responding to the opioid crisis in North America and beyond
Outcomes associated with scheduling or up-scheduling controlled substances
Scheduling and up-scheduling can - though does not always - have substantial effects on a range of outcomes. Substitution to other substances is a possibility and so should be anticipated
Lower-Risk Cannabis Use Guidelines
Lower-Risk Cannabis Use Guidelines: Will Users Listen? Jonathan P. Caulkins PhD, and Michelle L. Kilborn PhD Affiliation Jonathan P. Caulkins is with the Heinz College of Information Systems and Public Policy, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA. Michelle L. Kilborn is with Population, Public, and Indigenous Health at Alberta Health Services, Edmonton, AB, Canada.CopyRightCorrespondence should be sent to Jonathan P. Caulkins, Stever Univer…
What America's Users Spend on Illegal Drugs, 2006–2016
This report updates and extends estimates of the number of users, retail expenditures, and amount consumed from 2006 to 2016 for cocaine (including crack), heroin, marijuana, and methamphetamine in the United States. The authors find that people spent about $150 billion on these drugs in 2016. The authors' best estimates for 2016 suggest that the marijuana market was roughly the size of the cocaine and methamphetamine markets combined
Advertising Restrictions on Cannabis Products for Nonmedical Use
Variation in cannabis potency and prices in a newly legal market
Dealing More Effectively and Humanely with Illegal Drugs
Many judge the American criminal justice system to have largely failed in its drug enforcement role, and the justice system itself has suffered a loss of community support and internal morale as a consequence. Five principles should guide improvement of drug enforcement, including that drug enforcement be viewed as a preventive activity, whose main goal is reducing drug abuse and related harms, and it should be designed for sustainability. Six mo…
Developing Public Health Regulations for Marijuana
Until November 2012, no modern jurisdiction had removed the prohibition on the commercial production, distribution, and sale of marijuana for nonmedical purposes—not even the Netherlands. Government agencies in Colorado and Washington are now charged with granting production and processing licenses and developing regulations for legal marijuana, and other states and countries may follow. Our goal is not to address whether marijuana legalization i…
Statistics on Cannabis Users Skew Perceptions of Cannabis Use
focusing on days of use instead of prevalence shows substantially greater increases in U.S. cannabis use in recent years; however, the recent increase is mostly among adults, not youth. Relatively more rapid growth in use days also occurred among the college-educated and Hispanics. Further, data from a survey conducted in seven European countries show a strong positive correlation between frequency of use and quantity consumed per day of use, sug…
Drugs and Crime
This article explains why various policies are or are not likely to reduce the amount of crime associated with drugs, by marrying a simple typology of the types of drug-related crime with analysis of how different interventions affect drug markets and drug use. Section I addresses the science half of the literature but forgoes the usual detailed review of the empirical evidence. Section II lays down principles for thinking about the impact of dru…
The global recession's effect on drug demand—Diluted by inertia
No change is a good change? Restrictive deterrence in illegal drug markets
How Drug Enforcement Affects Drug Prices
Enforcement against drug selling remains the principal tool of drug control in the United States and many other countries. Though the risk of incarceration for a drug dealer has risen fivefold or more over the last 25 years in the United States, the prices of cocaine and heroin have fallen substantially. Different models of how enforcement affects drug supply may help explain the paradox. There are substantial periods in which drug markets are no…
Implications of Inertia for Assessing Drug Control Policy
An empirically-derived model of national drug initiation is combined with a compartment model of trends in illicit drug use parameterized for Australia. Numbers of initiates seem to oscillate over time but with fluctuations whose aptitude diminishes over time. Lags and interpersonal variation in drug use careers smooth those oscillations for measures of problem use and total drug-related social cost, so even abrupt changes in initiation barely ri…
How should Policy Respond to Disruptions in Markets for Illegal Drugs
This article raises the question of how drug policy should respond to take advantage of market disruptions. A simple mathematical model of the spread of drug use is adapted to a two-stage problem in which drug prices are abnormally low or high in the first stage, and the policy planner is allowed to adjust the level of drug control funding continuously over time. Optimal policies for this model are derived using the methods of optimal control the…
How Many People Does the U.S. Imprison for Drug Use, and Who are They
Data from the Survey of Inmates in Federal and State Correctional Facilities, 1997 are used to estimate the number of drug-law violators in U.S. prisons solely because of their drug use and not because of involvement in drug distribution or other offenses. The estimates (5,380 to 41,047) are much lower than would be implied by naively assuming that conviction for drug possession implies no involvement in drug distribution. Implied imprisonment ri…
Placing the poor while keeping the rich in their place
A central objective of modern US housing policy is deconcentrating poverty through "housing mobility programs" that move poor families into middle class neighborhoods. Pursuing these policies too aggressively risks inducing middle class flight, but bei
Using models that incorporate uncertainty
Noticing the Micro‐Distributional Consequences of Cigarette Taxation and Its Equivalent
Drug Prices and Emergency Department Mentions for Cocaine and Heroin
Objectives. In this report, the author illustrates the historic relation between retail drug prices and emergency department mentions for cocaine and heroin. Methods. Price series based on the Drug Enforcement Administration's System to Retrieve Information From Drug Evidence database were correlated with data on emergency department mentions from the Drug Abuse Warning Network for cocaine (1978–1996) and heroin (1981–1996). Results. A simple mod…
What Price Data Tell Us about Drug Markets
This paper reviews empirical evidence on drug prices and discusses implications for understanding of drug markets and for policy. The most striking characteristics of drug prices are their high levels and extreme variability over time and space. High prices deter consumption but have ambiguous effects on drug-related crime. The consequences of the variability are largely unexplored and are difficult to determine. Conclusions are mixed with respec…
Domestic Geographic Variation in Illicit Drug Prices
Describing Dawn's dominion
Heroin Policy for the Next Decade
The supply of heroin in the United States appears to have grown substantially in recent years, although it is not clear what impact this has had on consumption. Conventional indicators have shown only modest increases, but for a variety of reasons one would not expect increases even if we are in the early years of a new heroin use epidemic. It is even less clear what, if anything, should be done. Drug control resources are finite. Making heroin a…
How Drug Enforcement Affects Drug Prices
Enforcement against drug selling remains the principal tool of drug control in the United States and many other countries. Though the risk of incarceration for a drug dealer has risen fivefold or more over the last 25 years in the United States, the prices of cocaine and heroin have fallen substantially. Different models of how enforcement affects drug supply may help explain the paradox. There are substantial periods in which drug markets are no…
Developing Public Health Regulations for Marijuana
Until November 2012, no modern jurisdiction had removed the prohibition on the commercial production, distribution, and sale of marijuana for nonmedical purposes—not even the Netherlands. Government agencies in Colorado and Washington are now charged with granting production and processing licenses and developing regulations for legal marijuana, and other states and countries may follow. Our goal is not to address whether marijuana legalization i…
No change is a good change? Restrictive deterrence in illegal drug markets
Domestic Geographic Variation in Illicit Drug Prices
Heroin Policy for the Next Decade
The supply of heroin in the United States appears to have grown substantially in recent years, although it is not clear what impact this has had on consumption. Conventional indicators have shown only modest increases, but for a variety of reasons one would not expect increases even if we are in the early years of a new heroin use epidemic. It is even less clear what, if anything, should be done. Drug control resources are finite. Making heroin a…
Drug Prices and Emergency Department Mentions for Cocaine and Heroin
Objectives. In this report, the author illustrates the historic relation between retail drug prices and emergency department mentions for cocaine and heroin. Methods. Price series based on the Drug Enforcement Administration's System to Retrieve Information From Drug Evidence database were correlated with data on emergency department mentions from the Drug Abuse Warning Network for cocaine (1978–1996) and heroin (1981–1996). Results. A simple mod…
How Many People Does the U.S. Imprison for Drug Use, and Who are They
Data from the Survey of Inmates in Federal and State Correctional Facilities, 1997 are used to estimate the number of drug-law violators in U.S. prisons solely because of their drug use and not because of involvement in drug distribution or other offenses. The estimates (5,380 to 41,047) are much lower than would be implied by naively assuming that conviction for drug possession implies no involvement in drug distribution. Implied imprisonment ri…
Using models that incorporate uncertainty
Describing Dawn's dominion
Dealing More Effectively and Humanely with Illegal Drugs
Many judge the American criminal justice system to have largely failed in its drug enforcement role, and the justice system itself has suffered a loss of community support and internal morale as a consequence. Five principles should guide improvement of drug enforcement, including that drug enforcement be viewed as a preventive activity, whose main goal is reducing drug abuse and related harms, and it should be designed for sustainability. Six mo…
How should Policy Respond to Disruptions in Markets for Illegal Drugs
This article raises the question of how drug policy should respond to take advantage of market disruptions. A simple mathematical model of the spread of drug use is adapted to a two-stage problem in which drug prices are abnormally low or high in the first stage, and the policy planner is allowed to adjust the level of drug control funding continuously over time. Optimal policies for this model are derived using the methods of optimal control the…
Heroin Policy for the Next Decade
The supply of heroin in the United States appears to have grown substantially in recent years, although it is not clear what impact this has had on consumption. Conventional indicators have shown only modest increases, but for a variety of reasons one would not expect increases even if we are in the early years of a new heroin use epidemic. It is even less clear what, if anything, should be done. Drug control resources are finite. Making heroin a…
Domestic Geographic Variation in Illicit Drug Prices
Describing Dawn's dominion
What Price Data Tell Us about Drug Markets
This paper reviews empirical evidence on drug prices and discusses implications for understanding of drug markets and for policy. The most striking characteristics of drug prices are their high levels and extreme variability over time and space. High prices deter consumption but have ambiguous effects on drug-related crime. The consequences of the variability are largely unexplored and are difficult to determine. Conclusions are mixed with respec…
Noticing the Micro‐Distributional Consequences of Cigarette Taxation and Its Equivalent
Drug Prices and Emergency Department Mentions for Cocaine and Heroin
Objectives. In this report, the author illustrates the historic relation between retail drug prices and emergency department mentions for cocaine and heroin. Methods. Price series based on the Drug Enforcement Administration's System to Retrieve Information From Drug Evidence database were correlated with data on emergency department mentions from the Drug Abuse Warning Network for cocaine (1978–1996) and heroin (1981–1996). Results. A simple mod…
Using models that incorporate uncertainty
How Many People Does the U.S. Imprison for Drug Use, and Who are They
Data from the Survey of Inmates in Federal and State Correctional Facilities, 1997 are used to estimate the number of drug-law violators in U.S. prisons solely because of their drug use and not because of involvement in drug distribution or other offenses. The estimates (5,380 to 41,047) are much lower than would be implied by naively assuming that conviction for drug possession implies no involvement in drug distribution. Implied imprisonment ri…
Placing the poor while keeping the rich in their place
A central objective of modern US housing policy is deconcentrating poverty through "housing mobility programs" that move poor families into middle class neighborhoods. Pursuing these policies too aggressively risks inducing middle class flight, but bei
Implications of Inertia for Assessing Drug Control Policy
An empirically-derived model of national drug initiation is combined with a compartment model of trends in illicit drug use parameterized for Australia. Numbers of initiates seem to oscillate over time but with fluctuations whose aptitude diminishes over time. Lags and interpersonal variation in drug use careers smooth those oscillations for measures of problem use and total drug-related social cost, so even abrupt changes in initiation barely ri…
How should Policy Respond to Disruptions in Markets for Illegal Drugs
This article raises the question of how drug policy should respond to take advantage of market disruptions. A simple mathematical model of the spread of drug use is adapted to a two-stage problem in which drug prices are abnormally low or high in the first stage, and the policy planner is allowed to adjust the level of drug control funding continuously over time. Optimal policies for this model are derived using the methods of optimal control the…
How Drug Enforcement Affects Drug Prices
Enforcement against drug selling remains the principal tool of drug control in the United States and many other countries. Though the risk of incarceration for a drug dealer has risen fivefold or more over the last 25 years in the United States, the prices of cocaine and heroin have fallen substantially. Different models of how enforcement affects drug supply may help explain the paradox. There are substantial periods in which drug markets are no…
Drugs and Crime
This article explains why various policies are or are not likely to reduce the amount of crime associated with drugs, by marrying a simple typology of the types of drug-related crime with analysis of how different interventions affect drug markets and drug use. Section I addresses the science half of the literature but forgoes the usual detailed review of the empirical evidence. Section II lays down principles for thinking about the impact of dru…
The global recession's effect on drug demand—Diluted by inertia
No change is a good change? Restrictive deterrence in illegal drug markets
Statistics on Cannabis Users Skew Perceptions of Cannabis Use
focusing on days of use instead of prevalence shows substantially greater increases in U.S. cannabis use in recent years; however, the recent increase is mostly among adults, not youth. Relatively more rapid growth in use days also occurred among the college-educated and Hispanics. Further, data from a survey conducted in seven European countries show a strong positive correlation between frequency of use and quantity consumed per day of use, sug…
Developing Public Health Regulations for Marijuana
Until November 2012, no modern jurisdiction had removed the prohibition on the commercial production, distribution, and sale of marijuana for nonmedical purposes—not even the Netherlands. Government agencies in Colorado and Washington are now charged with granting production and processing licenses and developing regulations for legal marijuana, and other states and countries may follow. Our goal is not to address whether marijuana legalization i…
Variation in cannabis potency and prices in a newly legal market
Dealing More Effectively and Humanely with Illegal Drugs
Many judge the American criminal justice system to have largely failed in its drug enforcement role, and the justice system itself has suffered a loss of community support and internal morale as a consequence. Five principles should guide improvement of drug enforcement, including that drug enforcement be viewed as a preventive activity, whose main goal is reducing drug abuse and related harms, and it should be designed for sustainability. Six mo…
Advertising Restrictions on Cannabis Products for Nonmedical Use
What America's Users Spend on Illegal Drugs, 2006–2016
This report updates and extends estimates of the number of users, retail expenditures, and amount consumed from 2006 to 2016 for cocaine (including crack), heroin, marijuana, and methamphetamine in the United States. The authors find that people spent about $150 billion on these drugs in 2016. The authors' best estimates for 2016 suggest that the marijuana market was roughly the size of the cocaine and methamphetamine markets combined
Lower-Risk Cannabis Use Guidelines
Lower-Risk Cannabis Use Guidelines: Will Users Listen? Jonathan P. Caulkins PhD, and Michelle L. Kilborn PhD Affiliation Jonathan P. Caulkins is with the Heinz College of Information Systems and Public Policy, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA. Michelle L. Kilborn is with Population, Public, and Indigenous Health at Alberta Health Services, Edmonton, AB, Canada.CopyRightCorrespondence should be sent to Jonathan P. Caulkins, Stever Univer…
Outcomes associated with scheduling or up-scheduling controlled substances
Scheduling and up-scheduling can - though does not always - have substantial effects on a range of outcomes. Substitution to other substances is a possibility and so should be anticipated
Responding to the opioid crisis in North America and beyond
Improving Opioid Use Estimates Through Multiple Data Sources
Business (13 works) · Economics (12 works) · Medicine (12 works) · Political science (12 works) · Crime, Illicit Activities, and Governance (10 works) · Drug (10 works) · Psychology (10 works) · Substance Abuse Treatment and Outcomes (10 works) · Computer Science (9 works) · Psychiatry (9 works)