Keywan Riahi

Biographic Data

ID	3451428
NAME	Keywan Riahi
GIVEN NAMES	Keywan
FAMILY NAME	Riahi
SIGNATURE	RIAHI K
AFFILIATIONS	International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
ORCID	0000-0001-7193-3498
VERIFIED	Yes
TOTAL WORKS	84
TOTAL CITATIONS	836
AUTHOR COUNT	84
EDITOR COUNT	0
FIRST PUBLICATION YEAR	2007
LATEST PUBLICATION YEAR	2026
H-INDEX	11

Implications of overshoot for climate mitigation strategies
Open AccessMassimo Tavoni, Nico Bauer et al.ARTICLENature Climate Change2026
Climate justice discussions need new participants and new audiences
Open AccessKian Mintz‐woo, Caroline Zimm et al.ARTICLENature Climate Change2025
Closing decent living gaps in energy and emissions scenarios: Introducing Desire
Open AccessJarmo Kikstra, Vassilis Daioglou et al.ARTICLEEnvironmental Research Letters2025
Social and environmental agendas are intricately connected and shape the international policy discourse. To support these discussions, we present a framework for interpreting global scenario outcomes on energy demand and supply-side transitions through the lens of societal well-being and minimum resource requirements. We develop and apply a new model called Decent living standards and the Environment in Scenarios considering Inequality and Resour…
The carbon dioxide removal gap
Open AccessWilliam F Lamb, Thomas Gasser et al.ARTICLENature Climate Change2024
Justice considerations in climate research
Open AccessCaroline Zimm, Kian Mintz‐woo et al.ARTICLENature Climate Change2024
Feasibility of peak temperature targets in light of institutional constraints
Open AccessChristoph Bertram, Elina Brutschin et al.ARTICLENature Climate Change2024
Despite faster-than-expected progress in clean energy technology deployment, global annual CO 2 emissions have increased from 2020 to 2023. The feasibility of limiting warming to 1.5 °C is therefore questioned. Here we present a model intercomparison study that accounts for emissions trends until 2023 and compares cost-effective scenarios to alternative scenarios with institutional, geophysical and technological feasibility constraints and enable…
Science-based principles for corporate climate transition risk quantification
Open AccessFouad Khan, Edward Byers et al.ARTICLENature Climate Change2024
Climate policy and the SDGs agenda: How does near-term action on nexus SDGs influence the achievement of long-term climate goals
Open AccessIsabela Schmidt Tagomori, Mathijs Harmsen et al.ARTICLEEnvironmental Research Letters2024
The sustainable development goals (SDGs) represent the global ambition to accelerate sustainable development. Several SDGs are directly related to climate change and policies aiming to mitigate it. This includes, among others, the set of SDGs that directly influence the climate, land, energy, and water (CLEW) nexus (SDGs 2, 6, 7, 13, 15). This study aims at understanding the synergies and trade-offs between climate policy and the SDGs agenda: how…
Entry points for assessing ‘fair shares’ in national mitigation contributions
Open AccessSetu Pelz, Gaurav Ganti et al.ARTICLEEnvironmental Research Letters2024
Fairness considerations have long been central to the international climate change mitigation discourse, generating numerous scientific and philosophical debates. Yet, there remains a pressing need for practical guidance on developing assertions of fairness in national mitigation contributions. The Paris Agreement mandates that subsequent nationally determined contributions (NDCs) submitted under Article 4 represent a progression compared to prev…
Drivers and attitudes of public support for technological solutions to climate change in 30 countries
Open AccessElina Brutschin, Chad M Baum et al.ARTICLEEnvironmental Research Letters2024
Some experts contend that addressing global climate challenges requires consideration of technologies such as Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) and, possibly, Solar Radiation Modification (SRM). Previous studies, primarily centered on the OECD region, have indicated that most of these technologies are contentious, eliciting low levels of public support. By conducting a set of nationally representative surveys examining seven CDR and three SRM technolo…
Targeting net-zero emissions while advancing other sustainable development goals in China
Open AccessShu Zhang, Wenying Chen et al.ARTICLENature Sustainability2024Cited by: 3References: 3
Towards scenario representation of adaptive capacity for global climate change assessments
Open AccessMarina Andrijevic, Carl‐Friedrich Schleussner et al.ARTICLENature Climate Change2023
Fairness and feasibility in deep mitigation pathways with novel carbon dioxide removal considering institutional capacity to mitigate
Open AccessMatthew Gidden, Elina Brutschin et al.ARTICLEEnvironmental Research Letters2023
Questions around the technical and political feasibility of deep mitigation scenarios assessed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change have increasingly been raised as have calls for more directly analyzing and incorporating aspects of justice and fairness. Simultaneously, models are increasing the technical representation of novel carbon-dioxide removal (CDR) approaches to provide policy-relevant analyses of mitigation portfolios in the…
Uncompensated claims to fair emission space risk putting Paris Agreement goals out of reach
Open AccessGaurav Ganti, Matthew Gidden et al.ARTICLEEnvironmental Research Letters2023
Addressing questions of equitable contributions to emission reductions is important to facilitate ambitious global action on climate change within the ambit of the Paris Agreement. Several large developing regions with low historical contributions to global warming have a strong moral claim to a large proportion of the remaining carbon budget (RCB). However, this claim needs to be assessed in a context where the RCB consistent with the long-term …
Using large ensembles of climate change mitigation scenarios for robust insights
Open AccessCéline Guivarch, Thomas Le Gallic et al.ARTICLENature Climate Change2022
Defining a sustainable development target space for 2030 and 2050
Open AccessDetlef P Van Vuuren, Caroline Zimm et al.ARTICLEOne Earth2022
With the establishment of the sustainable development goals (SDGs), countries worldwide agreed to a prosperous, socially inclusive, and environmentally sustainable future for all. This ambition, however, exposes a critical gap in science-based insights, namely on how to achieve the 17 SDGs simultaneously. Quantitative goal-seeking scenario studies could help explore the needed systems' transformations. This requires a clear definition of the "tar…
Exploring Enablers for an Ambitious Coal Phaseout
Open AccessElina Brutschin, Felix Schenuit et al.ARTICLEPolitics and Governance2022References: 4
To reach the mitigation goals of the Paris Agreement, many countries will have to phase out their coal power plants prematurely, i.e., before the end of their normal lifetimes, which will lead quite possibly to significant stranded assets. This could present a major challenge, particularly for many of the rapidly developing countries whose electricity demand is growing and which are currently expanding their coal fleets. Recent research shows tha…
Exploring Global Climate Policy Futures and Their Representation in Integrated Assessment Models
Open AccessThomas Hickmann, Christoph Bertram et al.ARTICLEPolitics and Governance2022Cited by: 1References: 24
The Paris Agreement, adopted in 2015, paved the way for a new hybrid global climate governance architecture with both bottom-up and top-down elements. While governments can choose individual climate goals and actions, a global stocktake and a ratcheting-up mechanism have been put in place with the overall aim to ensure that collective efforts will prevent increasing adverse impacts of climate change. Integrated assessment models show that current…
Balancing smart irrigation and hydropower investments for sustainable water conservation in the Indus basin
Open AccessAnsir Ilyas, Simon Parkinson et al.ARTICLEEnvironmental Science & Policy2022
Greenhouse gas emissions from global cities under SSP/RCP scenarios, 1990 to 2100
Open AccessK R Gurney, Şiir Kılkış et al.ARTICLEGlobal Environmental Change2022Cited by: 7References: 3
Cost and attainability of meeting stringent climate targets without overshoot
Open AccessKeywan Riahi, Christoph Bertram et al.ARTICLENature Climate Change2021
Net zero-emission pathways reduce the physical and economic risks of climate change
Open AccessLaurent Drouet, Valentina Bosetti et al.ARTICLENature Climate Change2021
A framework for national scenarios with varying emission reductions
Open AccessShinichiro Fujimori, Volker Krey et al.ARTICLENature Climate Change2021
A multidimensional feasibility evaluation of low-carbon scenarios
Open AccessElina Brutschin, Silvia Pianta et al.ARTICLEEnvironmental Research Letters2021
Long-term mitigation scenarios developed by integrated assessment models underpin major aspects of recent IPCC reports and have been critical to identify the system transformations that are required to meet stringent climate goals. However, they have been criticized for proposing pathways that may prove challenging to implement in the real world and for failing to capture the social and institutional challenges of the transition. There is a growi…
Decent living gaps and energy needs around the world
Open AccessJarmo Kikstra, Alessio Mastrucci et al.ARTICLEEnvironmental Research Letters2021
In recent years, there has been growing interest in defining what exactly constitutes “decent living standards” (DLS)—the material underpinnings of human well-being. We assess the gaps in providing decent health, shelter, nutrition, socialization, and mobility within countries, across the world. Our results show that more people are deprived of DLS than are income-poor, even when numbers are measured against medium income poverty thresholds. We e…

Scenarios of long-term socio-economic and environmental development under climate stabilization
Open AccessKeywan Riahi, Arnulf Grübler et al.ARTICLETechnological Forecasting and…2007
Gas hydrates: Entrance to a methane age or climate threat
Open AccessVolker Krey, Josep G Canadell et al.ARTICLEEnvironmental Research Letters2009
Climate change is projected to negatively impact biophysical agricultural productivity in much of the world. Actions taken to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and mitigate future climate changes, are thus of central importance for agricultural production. Climate impacts are, however, not unidirectional; some crops in some regions (primarily higher latitudes) are projected to benefit, particularly if increased atmospheric carbon dioxide is assumed…
Historical (1850–2000) gridded anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions of reactive gases and aerosols: Methodology and application
Open AccessJean‐François Lamarque, J-F Lamarque et al.ARTICLEAtmospheric Chemistry and Physics2010
We present and discuss a new dataset of gridded emissions covering the historical period (1850–2000) in decadal increments at a horizontal resolution of 0.5° in latitude and longitude. The primary purpose of this inventory is to provide consistent gridded emissions of reactive gases and aerosols for use in chemistry model simulations needed by climate models for the Climate Model Intercomparison Program #5 (CMIP5) in support of the Intergovernmen…
The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment
Open AccessRichard H Moss, Jae Edmonds et al.ARTICLENature2010
Downscaling socioeconomic and emissions scenarios for global environmental change research: A review
Open AccessDetlef P Van Vuuren, Steve Smith et al.ARTICLEWiley Interdisciplinary Reviews…2010
Global change research encompasses various scales from global to local. Impacts analysis in particular often requires spatial downscaling, whereby socioeconomic and emission variables specified at relatively large spatial scales are translated to values at a country or grid level. In this article, the methods used for spatial downscaling are reviewed, classified, and current applications discussed. It is shown that in recent years, improved metho…
The RCP greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions from 1765 to 2300
Open AccessMalte Meinshausen, Steven J Smith et al.ARTICLEClimatic Change2011
We present the greenhouse gas concentrations for the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and their extensions beyond 2100, the Extended Concentration Pathways (ECPs). These projections include all major anthropogenic greenhouse gases and are a result of a multi-year effort to produce new scenarios for climate change research. We combine a suite of atmospheric concentration observations and emissions estimates for greenhouse gases (GHGs) …
Harmonization of land-use scenarios for the period 1500–2100: 600 Years of Global Gridded Annual Land-Use Transitions, Wood Harvest, and Resulting Secondary Lands
Open AccessG C Hurtt, Louise Chini et al.ARTICLEClimatic Change2011
In preparation for the fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the international community is developing new advanced Earth System Models (ESMs) to assess the combined effects of human activities (e.g. land use and fossil fuel emissions) on the carbon-climate system. In addition, four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios of the future (2005–2100) are being provided by four Integrated …
The representative concentration pathways: An overview
Open AccessDetlef P Van Vuuren, Jae Edmonds et al.ARTICLEClimatic Change2011
This paper summarizes the development process and main characteristics of the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), a set of four new pathways developed for the climate modeling community as a basis for long-term and near-term modeling experiments. The four RCPs together span the range of year 2100 radiative forcing values found in the open literature, i.e. from 2.6 to 8.5 W/m 2 . The RCPs are the product of an innovative collaboration be…
RCP 8.5—A scenario of comparatively high greenhouse gas emissions
Open AccessKeywan Riahi, Shilpa Rao et al.ARTICLEClimatic Change2011
This paper summarizes the main characteristics of the RCP8.5 scenario. The RCP8.5 combines assumptions about high population and relatively slow income growth with modest rates of technological change and energy intensity improvements, leading in the long term to high energy demand and GHG emissions in absence of climate change policies. Compared to the total set of Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), RCP8.5 thus corresponds to the path…
A proposal for a new scenario framework to support research and assessment in different climate research communities
Open AccessDetlef P Van Vuuren, Keywan Riahi et al.ARTICLEGlobal Environmental Change2011Cited by: 25References: 3
An energy vision: The transformation towards sustainability — interconnected challenges and solutions
Open AccessDetlef P Van Vuuren, Nebojsa Nakicenovic et al.ARTICLECurrent Opinion in Environmental…2012Cited by: 5References: 10
Locked into Copenhagen pledges — Implications of short-term emission targets for the cost and feasibility of long-term climate goals
Open AccessKeywan Riahi, Elmar Kriegler et al.ARTICLETechnological Forecasting and…2013
This paper provides an overview of the AMPERE modeling comparison project with focus on the implications of near-term policies for the costs and attainability of long-term climate objectives. Nine modeling teams participated in the project to explore the consequences of global emissions following the proposed policy stringency of the national pledges from the Copenhagen Accord and Cancún Agreements to 2030. Specific features compared to earlier a…
Pathways to achieve universal household access to modern energy by 2030
Open AccessSaroj Pachauri, Bas Van Ruijven et al.ARTICLEEnvironmental Research Letters2013
A lack of access to modern energy impacts health and welfare and impedes development for billions of people. Growing concern about these impacts has mobilized the international community to set new targets for universal modern energy access. However, analyses exploring pathways to achieve these targets and quantifying the potential costs and benefits are limited. Here, we use two modelling frameworks to analyse investments and consequences of ach…
Better air for better health: Forging synergies in policies for energy access, climate change and air pollution
Open AccessShilpa Rao, Saroj Pachauri et al.ARTICLEGlobal Environmental Change2013Cited by: 14
A new scenario framework for Climate Change Research: Scenario matrix architecture
Open AccessDetlef P Van Vuuren, Elmar Kriegler et al.ARTICLEClimatic Change2014
This paper describes the scenario matrix architecture that underlies a framework for developing new scenarios for climate change research. The matrix architecture facilitates addressing key questions related to current climate research and policy-making: identifying the effectiveness of different adaptation and mitigation strategies (in terms of their costs, risks and other consequences) and the possible trade-offs and synergies. The two main axe…
A new scenario framework for climate change research: The concept of shared climate policy assumptions
Open AccessElmar Kriegler, Jae Edmonds et al.ARTICLEClimatic Change2014
The new scenario framework facilitates the coupling of multiple socioeconomic reference pathways with climate model products using the representative concentration pathways. This will allow for improved assessment of climate impacts, adaptation and mitigation. Assumptions about climate policy play a major role in linking socioeconomic futures with forcing and climate outcomes. The paper presents the concept of shared climate policy assumptions as…
Household Cooking with Solid Fuels Contributes to Ambient PM 2.5 Air Pollution and the Burden of Disease
Open AccessZoë Chafe, Zoë A Chafe et al.ARTICLEEnvironmental Health Perspectives2014
BACKGROUND: Approximately 2.8 billion people cook with solid fuels. Research has focused on the health impacts of indoor exposure to fine particulate pollution. Here, for the 2010 Global Burden of Disease project (GBD 2010), we evaluated the impact of household cooking with solid fuels on regional population-weighted ambient PM2.5 (particulate matter ≤ 2.5 μm) pollution (APM2.5). OBJECTIVES: We estimated the proportion and concentrations of APM2.…
The role of technology for achieving climate policy objectives: Overview of the EMF 27 study on global technology and climate policy strategies
Open AccessElmar Kriegler, John P Weyant et al.ARTICLEClimatic Change2014
A new scenario framework for climate change research: The concept of shared socioeconomic pathways
Open AccessBrian C O''Neill, Brian C O’Neill et al.ARTICLEClimatic Change2014
The new scenario framework for climate change research envisions combining pathways of future radiative forcing and their associated climate changes with alternative pathways of socioeconomic development in order to carry out research on climate change impacts, adaptation, and mitigation. Here we propose a conceptual framework for how to define and develop a set of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) for use within the scenario framework. We def…
Making or breaking climate targets: The Ampere study on staged accession scenarios for climate policy
Open AccessElmar Kriegler, Keywan Riahi et al.ARTICLETechnological Forecasting and…2014
This study explores a situation of staged accession to a global climate policy regime from the current situation of regionally fragmented and moderate climate action. The analysis is based on scenarios in which a front runner coalition – the EU or the EU and China – embarks on immediate ambitious climate action while the rest of the world makes a transition to a global climate regime between 2030 and 2050. We assume that the ensuing regime involv…
A short note on integrated assessment modeling approaches: Rejoinder to the review of “Making or breaking climate targets — The Ampere study on staged accession scenarios for climate policy”
Open AccessElmar Kriegler, Keywan Riahi et al.ARTICLETechnological Forecasting and…2015
Zero emission targets as long-term global goals for climate protection
Open AccessJoeri Rogelj, Michiel Schaeffer et al.ARTICLEEnvironmental Research Letters2015
Recently, assessments have robustly linked stabilization of global-mean temperature rise to the necessity of limiting the total amount of emitted carbon-dioxide (CO2). Halting global warming thus requires virtually zero annual CO2 emissions at some point. Policymakers have now incorporated this concept in the negotiating text for a new global climate agreement, but confusion remains about concepts like carbon neutrality, climate neutrality, full …
Impact of short-lived non-CO 2 mitigation on carbon budgets for stabilizing global warming
Open AccessJoeri Rogelj, Malte Meinshausen et al.ARTICLEEnvironmental Research Letters2015
Limiting global warming to any level requires limiting the total amount of CO 2 emissions, or staying within a CO 2 budget. Here we assess how emissions from short-lived non-CO 2 species like methane, hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), black-carbon, and sulphates influence these CO 2 budgets. Our default case, which assumes mitigation in all sectors and of all gases, results in a CO 2 budget between 2011-2100 of 340 PgC for a >66% chance of staying below…
Mitigation choices impact carbon budget size compatible with low temperature goals
Open AccessJoeri Rogelj, Andy Reisinger et al.ARTICLEEnvironmental Research Letters2015
Global-mean temperature increase is roughly proportional to cumulative emissions of carbon-dioxide (CO2). Limiting global warming to any level thus implies a finite CO2 budget. Due to geophysical uncertainties, the size of such budgets can only be expressed in probabilistic terms and is further influenced by non-CO2 emissions. We here explore how societal choices related to energy demand and specific mitigation options influence the size of carbo…
Comparing future patterns of energy system change in 2 °C scenarios with historically observed rates of change
Open AccessMariësse A E van Sluisveld, Jorrit Harmsen et al.ARTICLEGlobal Environmental Change2015Cited by: 11