Hermann Lotze‐campen
Dados Biográficos
| ID | 3589126 |
|---|---|
| NOME | Hermann Lotze‐campen |
| PRENOMES | Hermann |
| SOBRENOME | Lotze‐campen |
| ASSINATURA | CAMPEN H L |
| AFILIAÇÕES | Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research |
| ORCID | 0000-0002-0003-5508 |
| VERIFICADO | Sim |
| TOTAL DE OBRAS | 65 |
| TOTAL DE CITAÇÕES | 612 |
| TOTAL COMO AUTOR | 65 |
| TOTAL COMO EDITOR | 0 |
| PRIMEIRO ANO DE PUBLICAÇÃO | 2002 |
| ANO MAIS RECENTE DE PUBLICAÇÃO | 2026 |
| ÍNDICE H | 9 |
Irrigation constraints shape the global potential for multiple cropping expansion on existing cropland
Multiple cropping increases land productivity by allowing multiple harvests per year, offering production gains without cropland expansion. Irrigation is especially critical in the seasonally dry tropics, enabling multiple cropping where otherwise only a single rainfed cycle would be feasible. Estimates of the current state of multiple cropping and the multiple cropping expansion potential without changes in irrigation patterns exist, but the mul…
Bundling measures for food systems transformation
Multi-benefit diet changes in China
Conservation outcomes of dietary transitions across different values of nature
Conservation benefits from dietary change are commonly assessed without accounting for different conservation objectives. By representing fine-scale habitat and landscape change within a dynamic land-system model, we assess how a partial or full transition to healthier diets would affect indicators across the ‘Nature for Nature’ and ‘Nature for Society’ conservation value perspectives. We find that most diet-related conservation benefits are alre…
The multiple benefits of Chinese dietary transformation
Minimizing trade-offs and maximizing synergies for a just bioeconomy transition
The transition to a bioeconomy holds promise for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and advancing sustainable development but also presents complex challenges. This perspectives article critically examines the environmental, social, and economic implications of shifting from fossil-based to bio-based resources, addressing key concerns such as land use competition, biodiversity loss, and social equity. Rising biomass demand poses sustainabili…
The social welfare value of the global food system
Planetary boundaries under a land-based climate change mitigation scenario with a food demand transformation
EAT-Lancet Commission 2.0
A comparison of the effects of local and EAT-Lancet dietary recommendations on selected economic and environmental outcomes in India
Emission savings through the COP26 declaration of deforestation could come at the expense of non-forest land conversion
The majority of signatories to The United Nations Climate Change Conference in 2021 (COP26) made a declaration to end deforestation by 2030. Here, we quantify future changes in land use and associated CO 2 emissions to examine the impact of ending deforestation by 2030 on global land dynamics and emissions using an open-source land-use model. We show that if the COP26 declaration to end deforestation is fully implemented globally, about 167 Mha o…
Multiple pathways towards sustainable development goals and climate targets
The UN sustainable development goals (SDGs) and the Paris climate target require a holistic transformation towards human well-being within planetary boundaries. However, there are growing debates on how to best pursue these targets. Proposed transformation strategies include market- and technology-driven green-growth, shifting towards a sufficiency-oriented post-growth economy, and a transformation driven primarily by strong government action. He…
Food and land system transformations under different societal perspectives on sustainable development
The future of food and land systems is crucial for achieving multiple UN Sustainable Development Goals, given their essential role in providing adequate nutrition and their significant impact on Earth system processes. Despite widespread consensus on the need for transformation, discussed strategies vary widely, from technology-driven to sufficiency-focused approaches, emphasizing different agents of change and policy mixes. This study assesses t…
Assessing the impacts of technological change on food security and climate change mitigation in China’s agriculture and land-use sectors
Assessing policy options for sustainable water use in India’s cereal production system
In India, the production of rice and wheat account for more than 80% of its total agricultural water use. As farming is highly dependent on water availability, rapidly receding water levels require urgent measures to manage withdrawals. We assess policy instruments that can reduce pressures on water resources, while at the same time limiting adverse impacts on water-intensive cereal production systems, land-use changes and economic welfare. To th…
A decentralized approach to model national and global food and land use systems
The achievement of several sustainable development goals and the Paris Climate Agreement depends on rapid progress towards sustainable food and land systems in all countries. We have built a flexible, collaborative modeling framework to foster the development of national pathways by local research teams and their integration up to global scale. Local researchers independently customize national models to explore mid-century pathways of the food a…
Gravity models do not explain, and cannot predict, international migration dynamics
The major social and economic impacts of international migration have led to a strong interest in better understanding the drivers of cross-border movement. Quantitative models have sought to explain global migration patterns in terms of economic, social, climatic, and other variables, and future projections of these variables are increasingly being used to forecast international migration flows. An important implicit assumption in the most widel…
Topic modelling exposes disciplinary divergence in research on the nexus between human mobility and the environment
Human mobility is increasingly associated with environmental and climatic factors. One way to explore how mobility and the environment are linked is to review the research on different aspects of the topic. However, so many relevant articles are published that analysis of the literature using conventional techniques is becoming prohibitively arduous. To overcome this constraint, we have applied automated textual analysis. Using unsupervised topic…
We need a food system transformation—In the face of the Russia-Ukraine war, now more than ever
Accounting for local temperature effect substantially alters afforestation patterns
Human intervention in forested ecosystems is hoped to perform a fundamental shift within the next decade by reverting current forest loss—a major source of CO 2 emissions—to net forest gain taking up carbon and thus aiding climate change mitigation. The demanded extensive establishment of forests will change the local surface energy fluxes, and with it the local climate, in addition to competing with food and fiber production for land and water. …
The role of food and land use systems in achieving India’s sustainability targets
The food and land use sector is a major contributor to India’s total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. On one hand, India is committed to sustainability targets in the Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU) sectors, on the other, there is little clarity whether these objectives can align with national developmental priorities of food security and environmental protection. This study fills the gap by reviewing multiple corridors to sustain…
How can diverse national food and land-use priorities be reconciled with global sustainability targets? Lessons from the Fable initiative
There is an urgent need for countries to transition their national food and land-use systems toward food and nutritional security, climate stability, and environmental integrity. How can countries satisfy their demands while jointly delivering the required transformative change to achieve global sustainability targets? Here, we present a collaborative approach developed with the FABLE—Food, Agriculture, Biodiversity, Land, and Energy—Consortium t…
Pathway to achieve a sustainable food and land-use transition in India
Reforming China’s fertilizer policies
Reactive nitrogen (N) is a requisite nutrient for agricultural production, but results in greenhouse gas and air and water pollution. The environmental and economic impacts of N fertilizer use in China are particularly relevant, as China consumes the largest amount of N fertilizer in the world to meet its soaring food demand. Here, we use an agro-economic land system model (MAgPIE) in combination with a difference-in-differences econometric model…
A sustainable development pathway for climate action within the UN 2030 Agenda
Bending the curve of terrestrial biodiversity needs an integrated strategy
Increased efforts are required to prevent further losses to terrestrial biodiversity and the ecosystem services that it provides1,2. Ambitious targets have been proposed, such as reversing the declining trends in biodiversity3; however, just feeding the growing human population will make this a challenge4. Here we use an ensemble of land-use and biodiversity models to assess whether—and how—humanity can reverse the declines in terrestrial biodive…
The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications
This paper presents the overview of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and their energy, land use, and emissions implications. The SSPs are part of a new scenario framework, established by the climate change research community in order to facilitate the integrated analysis of future climate impacts, vulnerabilities, adaptation, and mitigation. The pathways were developed over the last years as a joint community effort and describe plausible…
Land-use futures in the shared socio-economic pathways
Narratives for the Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs) focusing on the land sector are presented. • Integrated Assessment Models have been applied for the SSPs to assess potential future developments for land use, greenhouse gas emissions, food provision and prices. • Model results reflect the general storylines of the SSPs and indicate a broad range of potential land-use futures. • SSP-based land use pathways aim at supporting future climate r…
Fossil-fueled development (SSP5)
This paper presents a set of energy and resource intensive scenarios based on the concept of Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs). The scenario family is characterized by rapid and fossil-fueled development with high socio-economic challenges to mitigation and low socio-economic challenges to adaptation (SSP5). A special focus is placed on the SSP5 marker scenario developed by the REMIND-MAgPIE integrated assessment modeling framework. The SSP5 …
Food consumption, diet shifts and associated non-CO2 greenhouse gases from agricultural production
Challenges for land system science
Trading more food
The impact of climate change on incomes and convergence in Africa
From LTER to LTSER
Haberl, H., V. Winiwarter, K. Andersson, R. U. Ayres, C. Boone, A. Castillo, G. Cunfer, M. Fischer-Kowalski, W. R. Freudenburg, E. Furman, R. Kaufmann, F. Krausmann, E. Langthaler, H. Lotze-Campen, M. Mirtl, C. L. Redman, A. Reenberg, A. Wardell, B. Warr, and H. Zechmeister 2006. From LTER to LTSER: conceptualizing the socioeconomic dimension of long-term socioecological research. Ecology and Society 11(2): 13. https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-01786-11…
Adaptation to climate change through the choice of cropping system and sowing date in sub-Saharan Africa
Assessing the impacts of technological change on food security and climate change mitigation in China’s agriculture and land-use sectors
Reforming China’s fertilizer policies
Reactive nitrogen (N) is a requisite nutrient for agricultural production, but results in greenhouse gas and air and water pollution. The environmental and economic impacts of N fertilizer use in China are particularly relevant, as China consumes the largest amount of N fertilizer in the world to meet its soaring food demand. Here, we use an agro-economic land system model (MAgPIE) in combination with a difference-in-differences econometric model…
Environmental flow provision
Are scenario projections overly optimistic about future yield progress
The multiple benefits of Chinese dietary transformation
Planetary boundaries under a land-based climate change mitigation scenario with a food demand transformation
EAT-Lancet Commission 2.0
How can diverse national food and land-use priorities be reconciled with global sustainability targets? Lessons from the Fable initiative
There is an urgent need for countries to transition their national food and land-use systems toward food and nutritional security, climate stability, and environmental integrity. How can countries satisfy their demands while jointly delivering the required transformative change to achieve global sustainability targets? Here, we present a collaborative approach developed with the FABLE—Food, Agriculture, Biodiversity, Land, and Energy—Consortium t…
Pathway to achieve a sustainable food and land-use transition in India
Livestock production and the water challenge of future food supply
Ethical aspects in the economic modeling of water policy options
Minimizing trade-offs and maximizing synergies for a just bioeconomy transition
The transition to a bioeconomy holds promise for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and advancing sustainable development but also presents complex challenges. This perspectives article critically examines the environmental, social, and economic implications of shifting from fossil-based to bio-based resources, addressing key concerns such as land use competition, biodiversity loss, and social equity. Rising biomass demand poses sustainabili…
How to "Geoscope" Transitions to Sustainable Water Use
In the process of finding paths to sustainable development, humankind faces the challenge of better understanding the interactions between human society and the natural environment. Although the definition and ultimate goal of sustainable development is still not generally agreed upon, in many cases we are able to determine what is clearly not sustainable: The extent of global energy consumption, the current degree of biodiversity loss, or the co…
From LTER to LTSER
Haberl, H., V. Winiwarter, K. Andersson, R. U. Ayres, C. Boone, A. Castillo, G. Cunfer, M. Fischer-Kowalski, W. R. Freudenburg, E. Furman, R. Kaufmann, F. Krausmann, E. Langthaler, H. Lotze-Campen, M. Mirtl, C. L. Redman, A. Reenberg, A. Wardell, B. Warr, and H. Zechmeister 2006. From LTER to LTSER: conceptualizing the socioeconomic dimension of long-term socioecological research. Ecology and Society 11(2): 13. https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-01786-11…
Modelling the role of agriculture for the 20th century global terrestrial carbon balance
In order to better assess the role of agriculture within the global climate‐vegetation system, we present a model of the managed planetary land surface, Lund–Potsdam–Jena managed Land (LPJmL), which simulates biophysical and biogeochemical processes as well as productivity and yield of the most important crops worldwide, using a concept of crop functional types (CFTs). Based on the LPJ‐Dynamic Global Vegetation Model, LPJmL simulates the transien…
Global food demand, productivity growth, and the scarcity of land and water resources
In the coming decades, an increasing competition for global land and water resources can be expected, due to rising demand for food and bio‐energy production, biodiversity conservation, and changing production conditions due to climate change. The potential of technological change in agriculture to adapt to these trends is subject to considerable uncertainty. In order to simulate these combined effects in a spatially explicit way, we present a mo…
Socio-Ecological Monitoring of Biodiversity Change
We discuss biodiversity loss as a problem of social perception and environmental management. Apart from the problems with defining and measuring biodiversity, the impacts of biodiversity loss on human well-being and lifestyles are difficult to assess, and the value of biodiversity conservation is difficult to measure. The biodiversity discourse is still dominated by the natural sciences, whereas little attention has been paid to the social dimens…
Food consumption, diet shifts and associated non-CO2 greenhouse gases from agricultural production
Climate change risks for African agriculture
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment of major risks for African agriculture and food security caused by climate change during coming decades is confirmed by a review of more recent climate change impact assessments (14 quantitative, six qualitative). Projected impacts relative to current production levels range from −100% to +168% in econometric, from −84% to +62% in process-based, and from −57% to +30% in statistical a…
Improved data for integrated modeling of global environmental change
The assessment of global environmental changes, their impact on human societies, and possible management options requires large-scale, integrated modeling efforts. These models have to link biophysical with socio-economic processes, and they have to take spatial heterogeneity of environmental conditions into account. Land use change and freshwater use are two key research areas where spatial aggregation and the use of regional average numbers may…
The economic potential of bioenergy for climate change mitigation with special attention given to implications for the land system
Author: Popp, Alexander et al.; Genre: Journal Article; Finally published : 2011; Open Access; Title: The economic potential of bioenergy for climate change mitigation with special attention given to implications for the land system
Trading more food
Additional CO2 emissions from land use change — Forest conservation as a precondition for sustainable production of second generation bioenergy
Adaptation to climate change through the choice of cropping system and sowing date in sub-Saharan Africa
Challenges for land system science
Conservation of undisturbed natural forests and economic impacts on agriculture
Reactive nitrogen requirements to feed the world in 2050 and potential to mitigate nitrogen pollution
Climate change effects on agriculture
Significance Plausible estimates of climate change impacts on agriculture require integrated use of climate, crop, and economic models. We investigate the contribution of economic models to uncertainty in this impact chain. In the nine economic models included, the direction of management intensity, area, consumption, and international trade responses to harmonized crop yield shocks from climate change are similar. However, the magnitudes differ …
The global economic long-term potential of modern biomass in a climate-constrained world
Low-stabilization scenarios consistent with the 2 °C target project large-scale deployment of purpose-grown lignocellulosic biomass. In case a GHG price regime integrates emissions from energy conversion and from land-use/land-use change, the strong demand for bioenergy and the pricing of terrestrial emissions are likely to coincide. We explore the global potential of purpose-grown lignocellulosic biomass and ask the question how the supply price…
Investigating afforestation and bioenergy CCS as climate change mitigation strategies
The land-use sector can contribute to climate change mitigation not only by reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, but also by increasing carbon uptake from the atmosphere and thereby creating negative CO2 emissions. In this paper, we investigate two land-based climate change mitigation strategies for carbon removal: (1) afforestation and (2) bioenergy in combination with carbon capture and storage technology (bioenergy CCS). In our approach, a…
Cap-and-trade of Water Rights. A Sustainable Way out of Australia's Rural Water Problems
Trading water rights is a tool for re-allocation of water resources in water-scarce regions such as Australia. Tradable water rights help farmers to act flexibly when facing high fluctuations in water availability and to use the water in a sustainable and environmentally friendly manner. A precondition is that the quantity of water rights is capped at an appropriate level. The institutional arrangements and market structures in which water-right …
Valuing the impact of trade on local blue water
Environmental flow provision
Ethical aspects in the economic modeling of water policy options
Climate change impacts on agriculture in 2050 under a range of plausible socioeconomic and emissions scenarios
Previous studies have combined climate, crop and economic models to examine the impact of climate change on agricultural production and food security, but results have varied widely due to differences in models, scenarios and input data. Recent work has examined (and narrowed) these differences through systematic model intercomparison using a high-emissions pathway to highlight the differences. This paper extends that analysis to explore a range …
Livestock in a changing climate
Livestock farming is the world's largest land use sector and utilizes around 60% of the global biomass harvest. Over the coming decades, climate change will affect the natural resource base of livestock production, especially the productivity of rangeland and feed crops. Based on a comprehensive impact modeling chain, we assess implications of different climate projections for agricultural production costs and land use change and explore the effe…
Afforestation to mitigate climate change
Ambitious climate targets, such as the 2 C target, are likely to require the removal of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. Afforestation is one such mitigation option but could, through the competition for land, also lead to food prices hikes. In addition, afforestation often decreases land-surface albedo and the amount of short-wave radiation reflected back to space, which results in a warming effect. In particular in the boreal zone, such biop…
Economics (47 obras) · Environmental Science (43 obras) · Natural resource economics (42 obras) · Ecology (37 obras) · Geography (32 obras) · Agriculture (31 obras) · Climate change (27 obras) · Business (23 obras) · Greenhouse gas (22 obras) · Agriculture Sustainability and Environmental Impact (21 obras)