Wolfgang Lutz
Biographic Data
| ID | 3594561 |
|---|---|
| NAME | Wolfgang Lutz |
| GIVEN NAMES | Wolfgang |
| FAMILY NAME | Lutz |
| SIGNATURE | LUTZ W |
| AFFILIATIONS | International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis |
| ORCID | 0000-0001-7975-8145 |
| VERIFIED | Yes |
| TOTAL WORKS | 76 |
| TOTAL CITATIONS | 903 |
| AUTHOR COUNT | 75 |
| EDITOR COUNT | 1 |
| FIRST PUBLICATION YEAR | 1987 |
| LATEST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2025 |
| H-INDEX | 14 |
Employing large language models for emotion detection in psychotherapy transcripts
Even though the classification results were only moderate, our model achieved a good performance especially for prediction of symptom severity. The results confirm the role of negative emotions in the prediction of symptom severity, while they also highlight the role of positive emotions in fostering a good alliance. Future directions entail the improvement of the labeled dataset, especially with regards to domain-specificity and incorporating co…
The Demographic Race between India and China
As India surpasses China as the world’s most populous country, questions arise as to whether this demographic shift will lead India to overtake China economically. This paper examines this demographic race beyond population size. Using multi-dimensional demographic projections by age, sex, education, and labor force participation, we show that China’s current apparent demographic travails will not necessarily threaten its leading status relative …
The PornLoS Treatment Program
On the current psychotherapeutic situation for persons with pornography use disorder in Germany
Validation and application of the Non-Verbal Behavior Analyzer
This study shows that emotion recognition with NOVA can be used to generate ERMs associated with patient emotions, affective experiences and symptoms. Nevertheless, limitations were obvious. It seems necessary to improve the ERMs using larger databases of sessions and the validity of ERMs needs to be further investigated in different samples and different applications. Furthermore, future research should take ERMs to identify emotional synchrony …
Revisiting the causes of fertility decline in Bangladesh
Bangladesh, one of the world's poorest countries, has experienced a dramatic decline in fertility since 1985, with a decline in the total fertility rate from 5.5-2.1. International researchers have debated the reasons for this rapid decline, with some studies attributing it primarily to family planning programmes and others pointing at the simultaneous increase in the education of women and other socioeconomic factors. Using data from seven-round…
Intergenerational inequities in exposure to climate extremes
Young generations are severely threatened by climate change
Wie häufig werden Diagnosen aus dem Bereich der sexuellen Funktionsstörungen an deutschen Hochschulambulanzen für Psychotherapie an psychologischen Instituten vergeben
Einleitung Sexuelle Funktionsstörungen gelten als häufig. Gleichzeitig fehlen epidemiologische Daten zur Behandlungsprävalenz sexueller Funktionsstörungen in der ambulanten Psychotherapie. Im Rahmen eines Projekts zur Koordination der Datenerhebung an den deutschen Hochschulambulanzen für Psychotherapie wird erstmals eine Schätzung für dieses Behandlungssegment möglich. Forschungsziele Das Ziel dieser Studie ist die Darstellung der festgestellten…
The Use of Digitally Assessed Stress Levels to Model Change Processes in CBT - A Feasibility Study on Seven Case Examples
In psychotherapy research, the measurement of treatment processes and outcome are predominantly based on self-reports. However, given new technological developments, other potential sources can be considered to improve measurements. In a feasibility study, we examined whether Ecological Momentary Assessments (EMA) using digital phenotyping (stress level) can be a valuable tool to investigate change processes during cognitive behavioral therapy (C…
Why do patients go off track? Examining potential influencing factors for being at risk of psychotherapy treatment failure
Life events, motivation, and risk/suicidality seem to be directly linked to treatment failure and should be further investigated for the use in clinical support tools
Expansion of sustainability science needed for the SDGs
Education and Health
Progress in human health and life expectancy is closely associated with socioeconomic development. Better nutrition and greater affordability of health care associated with higher income have been widely considered as primary determinants of historical and contemporary mortality declines. McKeown's (1976) influential book on the modern rise of population attributed the secular mortality decline largely to improving standards of living. Reviewing …
The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications
This paper presents the overview of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and their energy, land use, and emissions implications. The SSPs are part of a new scenario framework, established by the climate change research community in order to facilitate the integrated analysis of future climate impacts, vulnerabilities, adaptation, and mitigation. The pathways were developed over the last years as a joint community effort and describe plausible…
Demographic Strengthening of European Identity
The European Union is currently undergoing a major crisis within its institutions. Many observers think the EU is doomed, particularly in view of the current refugee situation, when in many countries the national agenda overrides the European project and the aggregate result is widely perceived as a failure of European-level governance. This skepticism is heightened by the UK referendum on continued EU membership. But few of these observers, focu…
The Process-Outcome Mindfulness Effects in Trainees (PrOmet) study
From ClinicalTrials.gov, Identifier: NCT02270073 (registered October 6, 2014)
Demographic aspects of climate change mitigation and adaptation
This paper addresses the contribution of changes in population size and structures to greenhouse gas emissions and to the capacity to adapt to climate change. The paper goes beyond the conventional focus on the changing composition by age and sex. It does so by addressing explicitly the changing composition of the population by level of educational attainment, taking into account new evidence about the effect of educational attainment in reducing…
Education stalls and subsequent stalls in African fertility
Recent stalls in fertility decline have been observed in a few countries in sub-Saharan Africa, and so far no plausible common reason has been identified in the literature. This paper develops the hypothesis that these fertility stalls could be associated
World Population and Human Capital in the Twenty-First Century
This book addresses systematically and quantitatively the role of educational attainment in global population trends and models. Six background chapters summarize past trends in fertility, mortality, migration, and education; examine relevant theories and identify key determining factors; and set the assumptions that are subsequently translated into alternative scenario projections to 2100. These assumptions derive from a global survey of hundred…
The human core of the shared socioeconomic pathways
This paper applies the methods of multi-dimensional mathematical demography to project national populations based on alternative assumptions on future, fertility, mortality, migration and educational transitions that correspond to the five shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP) storylines. In doing so it goes a significant step beyond past population scenarios in the IPCC context which considered only total population size. By differentiating the hu…
Demographic scenarios by age, sex and education corresponding to the SSP narratives
Is the Demographic Dividend an Education Dividend
The effect of changes in age structure on economic growth has been widely studied in the demography and population economics literature. The beneficial effect of changes in age structure after a decrease in fertility has become known as the “demographic dividend.” In this article, we reassess the empirical evidence on the associations among economic growth, changes in age structure, labor force participation, and educational attainment. Using a g…
A Population Policy Rationale for the Twenty-First Century
I propose that the primary goal of twenty-first-century population policies should be to strengthen the human resource base for national and global sustainable development. I discuss the shortcomings of the three dominant twentieth-century population policy rationales: acceptance of replacement-level fertility as a demographic goal; realizing a "demographic dividend" from the changing age structure; and filling the "unmet need" for family plannin…
Is Education a Key to Reducing Vulnerability to Natural Disasters and hence Unavoidable Climate Change
Muttarak, R. and W. Lutz. 2014. Is education a key to reducing vulnerability to natural disasters and hence unavoidable climate change? Ecology and Society 19(1): 42. https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-06476-190142
How does education change the relationship between fertility and age-dependency under environmental constraints? A long-term simulation exercise
When asked what a desirable fertility level for populations might be, most politicians, journalists, and even social scientists would say it is around two children per woman, a level that has been labelled by demographers "replacement-level fertility." The
Self‐Regulation and Mechanisms of Action in Psychotherapy
Psychotherapy is a complex, multilayered process with the potential to bring about changes at multiple levels of functioning, from the neurobiology of the brain to the individual's role in the social world. Although studies of the mechanisms by which psychotherapy leads to change continue to appear, there remains much to be learned about how psychological interventions work. To guide explorations of how and for whom particular treatment approache…
The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications
This paper presents the overview of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and their energy, land use, and emissions implications. The SSPs are part of a new scenario framework, established by the climate change research community in order to facilitate the integrated analysis of future climate impacts, vulnerabilities, adaptation, and mitigation. The pathways were developed over the last years as a joint community effort and describe plausible…
The human core of the shared socioeconomic pathways
This paper applies the methods of multi-dimensional mathematical demography to project national populations based on alternative assumptions on future, fertility, mortality, migration and educational transitions that correspond to the five shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP) storylines. In doing so it goes a significant step beyond past population scenarios in the IPCC context which considered only total population size. By differentiating the hu…
The emergence of Sub-Replacement Family Size Ideals in Europe
Projection of populations by level of educational attainment, age, and sex for 120 countries for 2005-2050
Using demographic multi-state, cohort-component methods, we produce projections for 120 countries (covering 93% of the world population in 2005) by five-year age groups, sex, and four levels of educational attainment for the years 2005-2050. Taking int
Demographic Metabolism
This essay introduces a general theory of how societies change as a consequence of the changing composition of their members with respect to certain relevant and measurable characteristics. These characteristics can either change over the life course of individuals or from one generation to the next. While the former changes can be analytically identified and described by certain age- and duration-specific transition schedules, the latter changes…
Policies Addressing the Tempo Effect in Low-Fertility Countries
The possible negative consequences of current low fertility levels are causing increasing concern, particularly in countries where the total fertility rate is below 1.5. Social inertia and self-reinforcing processes may make it difficult to return to higher levels once fertility has been very low for some time, creating a possible "low-fertility trap." Policies explicitly addressing the fertility-depressing effect of increases in the mean age at …
Population, Households, and CO 2 Emissions
Much work has recently been done to try to estimate the impact of population growth on global greenhouse gas emissions. The results of these studies vary, depending on the approach taken and the model used. \n \nFor this reason, the authors decided to consider more broadly what variables should be included in such studies and how the choice of different models affects the results. In particular, emphasis is given to the role of changes in the num…
Is the Demographic Dividend an Education Dividend
The effect of changes in age structure on economic growth has been widely studied in the demography and population economics literature. The beneficial effect of changes in age structure after a decrease in fertility has become known as the “demographic dividend.” In this article, we reassess the empirical evidence on the associations among economic growth, changes in age structure, labor force participation, and educational attainment. Using a g…
Education and Health
Progress in human health and life expectancy is closely associated with socioeconomic development. Better nutrition and greater affordability of health care associated with higher income have been widely considered as primary determinants of historical and contemporary mortality declines. McKeown's (1976) influential book on the modern rise of population attributed the secular mortality decline largely to improving standards of living. Reviewing …
Estimating Fertility Responses to Policy Measures in the German Democratic Republic
Everywhere the advent of industrial society and correspondingly high incomes has been accompanied by a fall in births. If one could only explain the fall unambiguously policy measures to counter it could be readily devised. Unfortunately there are many explanations, and from each follows a different policy prescription. If the income derived from women's work in offices and industry has become so high that they cannot afford the time to have chil…
The Contribution of Assisted Reproduction to Completed Fertility
Assisted reproduction has a minor but increasing influence on childbearing trends in advanced societies. In Denmark, the use of assisted reproduction technology (ART) has become particularly widespread. At the same time, Danish women born in the late 1950s and the 1960s experienced stabilization or even a slight increase in their mean number of children. Broad availability and widespread use of assisted reproduction may become important factors c…
Is Education a Key to Reducing Vulnerability to Natural Disasters and hence Unavoidable Climate Change
Muttarak, R. and W. Lutz. 2014. Is education a key to reducing vulnerability to natural disasters and hence unavoidable climate change? Ecology and Society 19(1): 42. https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-06476-190142
Education stalls and subsequent stalls in African fertility
Recent stalls in fertility decline have been observed in a few countries in sub-Saharan Africa, and so far no plausible common reason has been identified in the literature. This paper develops the hypothesis that these fertility stalls could be associated
Comparing Relative Effects of Education and Economic Resources on Infant Mortality in Developing Countries
Research on the social determinants of health has often considered education and economic resources as separate indicators of socioeconomic status. From a policy perspective, however, it is important to understand the relative strength of the effect of these social factors on health outcomes, particularly in developing countries. It is also important to examine not only the impact of education and economic resources of individuals, but also wheth…
Demography, Education, and Democracy
Reconstructions and projections of populations by age, sex, and educational attainment for 120 countries since 1970 are used to assess the global relationship between improvements in human capital and democracy. Democracy is measured by the Freedom House indicator of political rights. Similar to an earlier study on the effects of improving educational attainment on economic growth, the greater age detail of this new dataset resolves earlier ambig…
Long‐Term Population Decline in Europe
It has recently been suggested that an end to further increases in the mean age of child‐bearing in Europe (ending the negative tempo effect on fertility) would have a substantial effect on population dynamics in terms of slowing population aging and decline and weakening the negative momentum affecting population size over the coming decades. On the other hand, stable population theory suggests that under sub‐replacement fertility conditions, a …
Population-Development-Environment
The development in the island state of Mauritius over the past 30 years can serve as an example of how adverse conditions can be overcome. In the early 1960s Mauritius was trying to cope with rapid population growth, extreme poverty, and grim economic prospects. \n\nIn 1990 the situation was radically different. Although population density had increased, total fertility had dropped dramatically and the GNP per capita had risen to $2310. Economic …
Expansion of sustainability science needed for the SDGs
Demographic Strengthening of European Identity
The European Union is currently undergoing a major crisis within its institutions. Many observers think the EU is doomed, particularly in view of the current refugee situation, when in many countries the national agenda overrides the European project and the aggregate result is widely perceived as a failure of European-level governance. This skepticism is heightened by the UK referendum on continued EU membership. But few of these observers, focu…
Demographic Dimensions in Forecasting
Wolfgang Lutz, Anne Goujon, Gabriele Doblhammer-Reiter, Demographic Dimensions in Forecasting: Adding Education to Age and Sex, Population and Development Review, Vol. 24, Supplement: Frontiers of Population Forecasting (1998), pp. 42-58
Effects of Educational Attainment on Climate Risk Vulnerability
In the context of still uncertain specific effects of climate change in specific locations, this paper examines whether education significantly increases coping capacity with regard to particular climatic changes, and whether it improves the resilience of people to climate risks in general. Our hypothesis is that investment in universal primary and secondary education around the world is the most effective strategy for preparing to cope with the …
Expert-Based Probabilistic Population Projections
Most users of population projections are interested in one likely path of future population trends based on the best existing knowledge. Whether it is called the medium variant, central scenario, or median of an uncertainty distribution, this projected path will be taken as a forecast on which further considerations can be based. For many users such a best guess will suffice. It can be taken as an exogenous input into their own models for school …
A Population Policy Rationale for the Twenty-First Century
I propose that the primary goal of twenty-first-century population policies should be to strengthen the human resource base for national and global sustainable development. I discuss the shortcomings of the three dominant twentieth-century population policy rationales: acceptance of replacement-level fertility as a demographic goal; realizing a "demographic dividend" from the changing age structure; and filling the "unmet need" for family plannin…
Has Korea's Fertility Reached the Bottom
In 2005, the total fertility rate (TFR) in the Republic of Korea reached a new low of 1.08. This happened despite explicitly pronatalist efforts by the Korean government over the past years. The si
Demographic scenarios by age, sex and education corresponding to the SSP narratives
Factors Associated with the Finnish Fertility Decline Since 1776
The analysis of annual age-specific fertility rates in Finland over more than 200 years reveals the existence of a significant early fertility decline at the end of the eighteenth century preceding the secular decline that started around 1910. A reconstruction of age-specific proportions married by a simulation model based on Coale's marriage model indicates that the mean age at marriage increased and the proportion ever-marrying decreased substa…
Nälkä Vai Tauti Tappoi? Kauhunvuodet 1866-1868. (Was Hunger or Disease the Killer? Years of Terror 1866-1868)
Estimating Fertility Responses to Policy Measures in the German Democratic Republic
Everywhere the advent of industrial society and correspondingly high incomes has been accompanied by a fall in births. If one could only explain the fall unambiguously policy measures to counter it could be readily devised. Unfortunately there are many explanations, and from each follows a different policy prescription. If the income derived from women's work in offices and industry has become so high that they cannot afford the time to have chil…
Distributional Aspects of Human Fertility
Distributional Aspects of Human Fertility
The Demographic Dimensions of Divorce
This paper attempts to disentangle simultaneous demographic effects on divorce probabilities by means of age-period-cohort-type models. A multi-dimensional analysis of divorce probabilities in Finland between 1948 and 1984 is presented by period, marriage cohort, and duration, and for the year 1984 by age, age at marriage, and duration. Effects of order of marriage, number of children, and age of youngest child are also studied. Finland is one of…
What difference do alternative immigration and integration levels make to Western Europe
Demographic Trends and Patterns in the Soviet Union Before 1991
The Future Population of the World
Population, Households, and CO 2 Emissions
Much work has recently been done to try to estimate the impact of population growth on global greenhouse gas emissions. The results of these studies vary, depending on the approach taken and the model used. \n \nFor this reason, the authors decided to consider more broadly what variables should be included in such studies and how the choice of different models affects the results. In particular, emphasis is given to the role of changes in the num…
Population-Development-Environment
The development in the island state of Mauritius over the past 30 years can serve as an example of how adverse conditions can be overcome. In the early 1960s Mauritius was trying to cope with rapid population growth, extreme poverty, and grim economic prospects. \n\nIn 1990 the situation was radically different. Although population density had increased, total fertility had dropped dramatically and the GNP per capita had risen to $2310. Economic …
Evaluation of psychotherapy
Demographic Trends and Patterns in the Soviet Union before 1991
Female Education Likely to Lead to Long-Term Population Decline and Near-Term Gain in Quality of Life
An abstract is not available for this content so a preview has been provided. Please use the Get access link above for information on how to access this content
An Expert-Based Framework for Probabilistic National Population Projections
Introduction
Three major groups call on demographers to produce medium- and long-term population forecasts at the national, regional, or global levels - or produce them themselves. They are: other scientists, government and international agencies, and the general public, including private industry. What these consumers of forecasts demand of demographers, or what demographers think that they should demand, has been changing. The types of forecasts demanded ar…
Ways to Improve Population Forecasting
Dennis A. Ahlburg, Wolfgang Lutz, James W. Vaupel, Ways to Improve Population Forecasting: What Should Be Done Differently in the Future?, Population and Development Review, Vol. 24, Supplement: Frontiers of Population Forecasting (1998), pp. 191-198
Demographic Dimensions in Forecasting
Wolfgang Lutz, Anne Goujon, Gabriele Doblhammer-Reiter, Demographic Dimensions in Forecasting: Adding Education to Age and Sex, Population and Development Review, Vol. 24, Supplement: Frontiers of Population Forecasting (1998), pp. 42-58
Expert-Based Probabilistic Population Projections
Most users of population projections are interested in one likely path of future population trends based on the best existing knowledge. Whether it is called the medium variant, central scenario, or median of an uncertainty distribution, this projected path will be taken as a forecast on which further considerations can be based. For many users such a best guess will suffice. It can be taken as an exogenous input into their own models for school …
Endogenous growth of population and income depending on resource and knowledge
The Long-Term Effect of the Timing of Fertility Decline on Population Size
Existing long-range population projections imply that the timing of the fertility transition has a relatively unimportant effect on long-term population size when compared with the impact of the level at which fertility is assumed eventually to stabilize. However, this note shows that the effect of the timing of fertility decline is a function of the eventual fertility rate: the lower the eventual fertility rate, the greater the effect of the tim…
The end of world population growth
Population, Consumption, and Environment
Interactions between Coastal and Marine Ecosystems and Human Population Systems
Population, Consumption, and Environment
Population (51 works) · Sociology (48 works) · Demography (45 works) · Geography (41 works) · Economics (39 works) · Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management (27 works) · Fertility (26 works) · Global Health Care Issues (20 works) · Political science (19 works) · Demography (18 works)