Johannes Emmerling

Datos Biográficos

ID359580
NOMBREJohannes Emmerling
NOMBRESJohannes
APELLIDOEmmerling
FIRMAEMMERLING J
AFILIACIONESRFF-CMCC European Institute on Economics and the Environment
ORCID0000-0003-0916-9913
VERIFICADOSí
TOTAL DE OBRAS34
TOTAL DE CITAS407
TOTAL COMO AUTOR34
TOTAL COMO EDITOR0
PRIMER AÑO DE PUBLICACIÓN2016
AÑO MÁS RECIENTE DE PUBLICACIÓN2026
ÍNDICE H4

  • Climate policy feasibility across Europe relies on the conditional middle

    Open AccessE Keith Smith, Žan Mlakar et al.ARTICLENature Climate Change2026

  • Beliefs about EU 2030 climate commitments across public, expert, and policy audiences

    Open AccessLoïc Berger, Thibault Richard et al.ARTICLEEnvironmental Research Letters2026

    The European Union (EU) has adopted ambitious climate policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 55% by 2030. While technical, economic, and political feasibility have been widely analyzed, far less is known about a critical enabling factor: whether key societal actors perceive these targets as credible and achievable. In this study, we elicit probabilistic beliefs about future EU emission reductions from a sample of citizens designed to be r…

  • Green jobs and just transition

    Open AccessJohannes Emmerling, Laurent Drouet et al.ARTICLEEnergy Research & Social Science2025Referencias: 6

    The European Green Deal promises a “just and inclusive transition” to net-zero emissions by 2050, but employment implications remain poorly quantified. We address how Europe's net-zero transition affects energy sector employment and whether current policies ensure a just transition for affected workers. While the net-zero transition creates substantial net employment gains, we argue that significant mismatches in skills, geography, and timing req…

  • Mitigation deterrence and unrealistic expectations

    Open AccessCamilla Moioli, Laurent Drouet et al.ARTICLEGlobal Environmental Change2025Citada por: 1Referencias: 4

    Forest offsets decrease carbon prices but deter renewables, carbon capture, and innovation. • Forest-sink losses raise mitigation costs up to 0.5 percentage points versus no offsets. • Low-income regions face up to two percent higher costs when forest offsets fail. • Offset reliance creates moral hazard and undermines fair paths to net zero. This study examines the economic and societal impacts of using Forest Carbon Offsets (FCO) as a negative e…

  • Inequality repercussions of financing negative emissions

    Open AccessPietro Andreoni, Johannes Emmerling et al.ARTICLENature Climate Change2024

  • A multi-model assessment of inequality and climate change

    Open AccessJohannes Emmerling, Pietro Andreoni et al.ARTICLENature Climate Change2024

    Climate change and inequality are critical and interrelated issues. Despite growing empirical evidence on the distributional implications of climate policies and climate risks, mainstream model-based assessments are often silent on the interplay between climate change and economic inequality. Here we fill this gap through an ensemble of eight large-scale integrated assessment models that belong to different economic paradigms and feature income h…

  • Financing negative emissions leads to windfall profits and inequality at net zero

    Open AccessPietro Andreoni, Johannes Emmerling et al.ARTICLENature Climate Change2024

  • Multidimensional welfare indices and the IPCC 6th Assessment Report scenarios

    Open AccessJohannes Emmerling, Ulrike Kornek et al.ARTICLEEcological Economics2024Referencias: 2

    International audience

  • New damage curves and multimodel analysis suggest lower optimal temperature

    Open AccessKaj-Ivar van der Wijst, Francesco Bosello et al.ARTICLENature Climate Change2023

  • Inequality and growth impacts of climate change—insights from South Africa

    Open AccessShouro Dasgupta, Johannes Emmerling et al.ARTICLEEnvironmental Research Letters2023

    The impact of climate change on economic growth has been the subject of numerous studies in recent years, with macro-econometric analyses estimating the effect of rising temperatures on gross domestic product (GDP) growth rates at the country-level. However, the distributional impact of warming on inequality and poverty at the micro-level remains relatively unexplored. In this paper, we investigate the relationship between temperature and inequal…

  • Net zero-emission pathways reduce the physical and economic risks of climate change

    Open AccessLaurent Drouet, Valentina Bosetti et al.ARTICLENature Climate Change2021

  • Integrated perspective on translating biophysical to economic impacts of climate change

    Open AccessFranziska Piontek, Laurent Drouet et al.ARTICLENature Climate Change2021

  • Climate impacts on nutrition and labor supply disentangled – an analysis for rural areas of Uganda

    Open AccessChiara Antonelli, Manuela Coromaldi et al.ARTICLEEnvironment and Development…2021

    The entire agricultural supply chain, from crop production to food consumption, is expected to suffer significant damages from climate change. This paper empirically investigates the effects of warming on agricultural labor supply through variation in dietary intake in rural Uganda. We examine labor supply, food consumption, and overall social welfare under various climate change scenarios. First, we combine nationally representative longitudinal…

  • Meeting well-below 2°C target would increase energy sector jobs globally

    Open AccessSandeep Pai, Johannes Emmerling et al.ARTICLEOne Earth2021

    To limit global warming to well-below 2°C (WB2C), fossil fuels must be replaced by low-carbon energy sources. Support for this transition is often dampened by the impact on fossil fuel jobs. Previous work shows that pro-climate polices could increase employment by 20 million net energy jobs, but these studies rely on Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) jobs data, assumptions about jobs in non-OECD countries, and a single…

  • Representing inequalities in integrated assessment modeling of climate change

    Open AccessJohannes Emmerling, Massimo TavoniARTICLEOne Earth2021

  • Exploring the possibility space

    Open AccessIlkka Keppo, Isabela Butnar et al.ARTICLEEnvironmental Research Letters2021

    Integrated assessment models (IAMs) have emerged as key tools for building and assessing long term climate mitigation scenarios. Due to their central role in the recent IPCC assessments, and international climate policy analyses more generally, and the high uncertainties related to future projections, IAMs have been critically assessed by scholars from different fields receiving various critiques ranging from adequacy of their methods to how thei…

  • Integrated assessment model diagnostics

    Open AccessMathijs Harmsen, Elmar Kriegler et al.ARTICLEEnvironmental Research Letters2021

    Integrated assessment models (IAMs) form a prime tool in informing about climate mitigation strategies. Diagnostic indicators that allow comparison across these models can help describe and explain differences in model projections. This increases transparency and comparability. Earlier, the IAM community has developed an approach to diagnose models (Kriegler (2015 Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change 90 45–61)). Here we build on this, by proposing a se…

  • Energy system developments and investments in the decisive decade for the Paris Agreement goals

    Open AccessChristoph Bertram, Keywan Riahi et al.ARTICLEEnvironmental Research Letters2021

    The Paris Agreement does not only stipulate to limit the global average temperature increase to well below 2 °C, it also calls for ‘making finance flows consistent with a pathway towards low greenhouse gas emissions’. Consequently, there is an urgent need to understand the implications of climate targets for energy systems and quantify the associated investment requirements in the coming decade. A meaningful analysis must however consider the nea…

  • Land-based implications of early climate actions without global net-negative emissions

    Open AccessTomoko Hasegawa, Shinichiro Fujimori et al.ARTICLENature Sustainability2021Citada por: 2Referencias: 14

  • Subjective Well-Being at the Macro Level—Empirics and Future Scenarios

    Open AccessJohannes Emmerling, Paula Navarro et al.ARTICLESocial Indicators Research2021Citada por: 1Referencias: 5

  • Implications of various effort-sharing approaches for national carbon budgets and emission pathways

    Open AccessNicole J van den Berg, Heleen Van Soest et al.ARTICLEClimatic Change2020

    The bottom-up approach of the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) in the Paris Agreement has led countries to self-determine their greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction targets. The planned ‘ratcheting-up’ process, which aims to ensure that the NDCs comply with the overall goal of limiting global average temperature increase to well below 2 °C or even 1.5 °C, will most likely include some evaluation of ‘fairness’ of these reduction targe…

  • Taking stock of national climate policies to evaluate implementation of the Paris Agreement

    Open AccessMark Roelfsema, Heleen Van Soest et al.ARTICLENature Communications2020

    Many countries have implemented national climate policies to accomplish pledged Nationally Determined Contributions and to contribute to the temperature objectives of the Paris Agreement on climate change. In 2023, the global stocktake will assess the combined effort of countries. Here, based on a public policy database and a multi-model scenario analysis, we show that implementation of current policies leaves a median emission gap of 22.4 to 28.…

  • Early retirement of power plants in climate mitigation scenarios

    Open AccessRobert Fofrich Navarro, Dan Tong et al.ARTICLEEnvironmental Research Letters2020

    International efforts to avoid dangerous climate change aim for large and rapid reductions of fossil fuel CO 2 emissions worldwide, including nearly complete decarbonization of the electric power sector. However, achieving such rapid reductions may depend on early retirement of coal- and natural gas-fired power plants. Here, we analyze future fossil fuel electricity demand in 171 energy-emissions scenarios from Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs)…

  • Reducing stranded assets through early action in the Indian power sector

    Open AccessAman Malik, Christoph Bertram et al.ARTICLEEnvironmental Research Letters2020

    Cost-effective achievement of the Paris Agreement’s long-term goals requires the unanimous phase-out of coal power generation by mid-century. However, continued investments in coal power plants will make this transition difficult. India is one of the major countries with significant under construction and planned increase in coal power capacity. To ascertain the likelihood and consequences of the continued expansion of coal power for India’s futu…

  • The role of the discount rate for emission pathways and negative emissions

    Open AccessJohannes Emmerling, Laurent Drouet et al.ARTICLEEnvironmental Research Letters2019

    The importance of the discount rate in cost-benefit analysis of long term problems, such as climate change, has been widely acknowledged. However, the choice of the discount rate is hardly discussed when translating policy targets—such as 1.5 °C and 2 °C–into emission reduction strategies with the possibility of overshoot. Integrated assessment models (IAMs) have quantified the sensitivity of low carbon pathways to a series of factors, including …