Sebastian Schutte
Biographic Data
| ID | 359872 |
|---|---|
| NAME | Sebastian Schutte |
| GIVEN NAMES | Sebastian |
| FAMILY NAME | Schutte |
| SIGNATURE | SCHUTTE S |
| AFFILIATIONS | University of Konstanz |
| ORCID | 0000-0003-0701-9647 |
| VERIFIED | Yes |
| TOTAL WORKS | 14 |
| TOTAL CITATIONS | 275 |
| AUTHOR COUNT | 14 |
| EDITOR COUNT | 0 |
| FIRST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2010 |
| LATEST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2025 |
| H-INDEX | 6 |
Beyond Hate Speech: Online Rumors and Out-Group Resentment in Divided Societies
The political consequences of hate speech on social media are the subject of intense research. Studies from Europe and North America have found that online exposure to hate speech affects both attitudes and offline behavior. Moving beyond hate speech, we show how little it takes for online rumors to stoke inter-group tensions in divided societies. In a pre-registered survey experiment with 3075 Hindu social media users in India, we navigate ethic…
How Fear of Violence Drives Intergroup Conflict: Evidence from a Panel Survey in India
Earlier research on ethnic and religious conflict has identified fear as an important motivation. While theoretically sound, this expectation has never been tested at larger scales in ongoing episodes of political violence. Instead, conceptual progress has been made in lab experiments. Combining insights from observational research and stylized experiments, we predict that fear for personal safety due to witnessed violence causes prejudice agains…
How indiscriminate violence fuels conflicts between groups: Evidence from Kenya
Politics or prejudice? Explaining individual-level hostilities in India’s Hindu–Muslim conflict
Multiple explanations have been proposed for what drives India’s Hindu–Muslim conflict. Harnessing novel approaches to data acquisition and analysis, this paper uses insights from an electronic survey with 1, 414 respondents to test three prominent theories of why individuals promote conflict with out-groups. The results show that security concerns for the future are strong predictors for a hostile stance and approval of violence. Experiences of …
Aid, exclusion, and the local dynamics of insurgency in Afghanistan
Can developmental aid bring peace to war-torn communities? The current literature is divided on this issue. One line of reasoning suggests that aid is likely to decrease violence by improving employment and prosperity, thereby making participation in conflict more costly. Another view cites evidence showing an association between aid projects and increased insurgent activity. Addressing this contradiction, we argue that different types of aid pro…
The Political Legacy of Violence: The Long-Term Impact of Stalin’s Repression in Ukraine
Political scientists have long been interested in how indiscriminate violence affects the behavior of its victims, yet most research has focused on short-term military consequences rather than long-term political effects. We argue that large-scale violence can have an intergenerational impact on political preferences. Communities more exposed to indiscriminate violence in the past will—in the future—oppose political forces they associate with the…
Regions at Risk: Predicting Conflict Zones in African Insurgencies
A method for predicting conflict zones in civil wars based on point process models is presented in this paper. Instead of testing the validity of specific theoretical conjectures about the determinants of violence in a causal framework, this paper builds on classic literature and a wide body of recent studies to predict conflict zones based on a series of geographic conditions. Using an innovative cross-validation design, the study shows that the…
Violence and Civilian Loyalties: Evidence from Afghanistan
Insurgency and counterinsurgency are widely described as “population-centric warfare”: a competition between military actors over civilian loyalties. Drawing on a high-resolution conflict event data set and a new approach for analyzing reactive behavior in space and time, this article answers the question of how civilian cooperation and defection are systematically driven by incumbent and insurgent violence. Theoretically, the study contributes t…
Using night light emissions for the prediction of local wealth
Nighttime illumination can serve as a proxy for economic variables in particular in developing countries, where data are often not available or of poor quality. Existing research has demonstrated this for coarse levels of analytical resolution, such as countries, administrative units or large grid cells. In this article, we conduct the first fine-grained analysis of night lights and wealth in developing countries. The use of large-scale, geo-refe…
Geographic determinants of indiscriminate violence in civil wars
What determines the type of violence used by military actors in civil wars? Drawing on Kalyvas’s “information problem” and Boulding’s “loss of strength gradient”, this paper proposes a simple model of how the violence becomes more indiscriminate as a function of distance from the actors’ power centers. The proposed mechanism is a growing inability of the actors to distinguish between collaborators of the adversary and innocent bystanders. Tested …
Geography, Outcome, and Casualties: A Unified Model of Insurgency
This study introduces a theoretical model of how insurgency develops as a function of reactive mobilization. The theory extends a classic distance-decay model by incorporating Kalyvas’ typology of violence. It implies that geographic conditions crucially determine the accuracy of applied violence and thereby its public perception, which in turn determines the actors’ ability to mobilize. As a first test of these effects, I propose a new geographi…
Matched wake analysis: Finding causal relationships in spatiotemporal event data
Diffusion patterns of violence in civil wars
Optimization and Falsification in Empirical Agent-Based Models
The pioneering works in Agent-Based Modeling (ABM) - notably Schelling (1969) and Epstein and Axtell (1996) - introduced the method for testing hypotheses in "complex thought experiments" (Cederman 1997, 55). Although purely theoretical experiments can be important, the empirical orientation of the social sciences demands that the gap between modeled "thought experiments" and empirical data be as narrow as possible. In an ideal setting, an underl…
The Political Legacy of Violence: The Long-Term Impact of Stalin’s Repression in Ukraine
Political scientists have long been interested in how indiscriminate violence affects the behavior of its victims, yet most research has focused on short-term military consequences rather than long-term political effects. We argue that large-scale violence can have an intergenerational impact on political preferences. Communities more exposed to indiscriminate violence in the past will—in the future—oppose political forces they associate with the…
Diffusion patterns of violence in civil wars
Using night light emissions for the prediction of local wealth
Nighttime illumination can serve as a proxy for economic variables in particular in developing countries, where data are often not available or of poor quality. Existing research has demonstrated this for coarse levels of analytical resolution, such as countries, administrative units or large grid cells. In this article, we conduct the first fine-grained analysis of night lights and wealth in developing countries. The use of large-scale, geo-refe…
Violence and Civilian Loyalties: Evidence from Afghanistan
Insurgency and counterinsurgency are widely described as “population-centric warfare”: a competition between military actors over civilian loyalties. Drawing on a high-resolution conflict event data set and a new approach for analyzing reactive behavior in space and time, this article answers the question of how civilian cooperation and defection are systematically driven by incumbent and insurgent violence. Theoretically, the study contributes t…
Geography, Outcome, and Casualties: A Unified Model of Insurgency
This study introduces a theoretical model of how insurgency develops as a function of reactive mobilization. The theory extends a classic distance-decay model by incorporating Kalyvas’ typology of violence. It implies that geographic conditions crucially determine the accuracy of applied violence and thereby its public perception, which in turn determines the actors’ ability to mobilize. As a first test of these effects, I propose a new geographi…
Geographic determinants of indiscriminate violence in civil wars
What determines the type of violence used by military actors in civil wars? Drawing on Kalyvas’s “information problem” and Boulding’s “loss of strength gradient”, this paper proposes a simple model of how the violence becomes more indiscriminate as a function of distance from the actors’ power centers. The proposed mechanism is a growing inability of the actors to distinguish between collaborators of the adversary and innocent bystanders. Tested …
Regions at Risk: Predicting Conflict Zones in African Insurgencies
A method for predicting conflict zones in civil wars based on point process models is presented in this paper. Instead of testing the validity of specific theoretical conjectures about the determinants of violence in a causal framework, this paper builds on classic literature and a wide body of recent studies to predict conflict zones based on a series of geographic conditions. Using an innovative cross-validation design, the study shows that the…
Matched wake analysis: Finding causal relationships in spatiotemporal event data
Aid, exclusion, and the local dynamics of insurgency in Afghanistan
Can developmental aid bring peace to war-torn communities? The current literature is divided on this issue. One line of reasoning suggests that aid is likely to decrease violence by improving employment and prosperity, thereby making participation in conflict more costly. Another view cites evidence showing an association between aid projects and increased insurgent activity. Addressing this contradiction, we argue that different types of aid pro…
How Fear of Violence Drives Intergroup Conflict: Evidence from a Panel Survey in India
Earlier research on ethnic and religious conflict has identified fear as an important motivation. While theoretically sound, this expectation has never been tested at larger scales in ongoing episodes of political violence. Instead, conceptual progress has been made in lab experiments. Combining insights from observational research and stylized experiments, we predict that fear for personal safety due to witnessed violence causes prejudice agains…
Politics or prejudice? Explaining individual-level hostilities in India’s Hindu–Muslim conflict
Multiple explanations have been proposed for what drives India’s Hindu–Muslim conflict. Harnessing novel approaches to data acquisition and analysis, this paper uses insights from an electronic survey with 1, 414 respondents to test three prominent theories of why individuals promote conflict with out-groups. The results show that security concerns for the future are strong predictors for a hostile stance and approval of violence. Experiences of …
How indiscriminate violence fuels conflicts between groups: Evidence from Kenya
Optimization and Falsification in Empirical Agent-Based Models
The pioneering works in Agent-Based Modeling (ABM) - notably Schelling (1969) and Epstein and Axtell (1996) - introduced the method for testing hypotheses in "complex thought experiments" (Cederman 1997, 55). Although purely theoretical experiments can be important, the empirical orientation of the social sciences demands that the gap between modeled "thought experiments" and empirical data be as narrow as possible. In an ideal setting, an underl…
Diffusion patterns of violence in civil wars
Matched wake analysis: Finding causal relationships in spatiotemporal event data
Geographic determinants of indiscriminate violence in civil wars
What determines the type of violence used by military actors in civil wars? Drawing on Kalyvas’s “information problem” and Boulding’s “loss of strength gradient”, this paper proposes a simple model of how the violence becomes more indiscriminate as a function of distance from the actors’ power centers. The proposed mechanism is a growing inability of the actors to distinguish between collaborators of the adversary and innocent bystanders. Tested …
Geography, Outcome, and Casualties: A Unified Model of Insurgency
This study introduces a theoretical model of how insurgency develops as a function of reactive mobilization. The theory extends a classic distance-decay model by incorporating Kalyvas’ typology of violence. It implies that geographic conditions crucially determine the accuracy of applied violence and thereby its public perception, which in turn determines the actors’ ability to mobilize. As a first test of these effects, I propose a new geographi…
The Political Legacy of Violence: The Long-Term Impact of Stalin’s Repression in Ukraine
Political scientists have long been interested in how indiscriminate violence affects the behavior of its victims, yet most research has focused on short-term military consequences rather than long-term political effects. We argue that large-scale violence can have an intergenerational impact on political preferences. Communities more exposed to indiscriminate violence in the past will—in the future—oppose political forces they associate with the…
Regions at Risk: Predicting Conflict Zones in African Insurgencies
A method for predicting conflict zones in civil wars based on point process models is presented in this paper. Instead of testing the validity of specific theoretical conjectures about the determinants of violence in a causal framework, this paper builds on classic literature and a wide body of recent studies to predict conflict zones based on a series of geographic conditions. Using an innovative cross-validation design, the study shows that the…
Violence and Civilian Loyalties: Evidence from Afghanistan
Insurgency and counterinsurgency are widely described as “population-centric warfare”: a competition between military actors over civilian loyalties. Drawing on a high-resolution conflict event data set and a new approach for analyzing reactive behavior in space and time, this article answers the question of how civilian cooperation and defection are systematically driven by incumbent and insurgent violence. Theoretically, the study contributes t…
Using night light emissions for the prediction of local wealth
Nighttime illumination can serve as a proxy for economic variables in particular in developing countries, where data are often not available or of poor quality. Existing research has demonstrated this for coarse levels of analytical resolution, such as countries, administrative units or large grid cells. In this article, we conduct the first fine-grained analysis of night lights and wealth in developing countries. The use of large-scale, geo-refe…
Aid, exclusion, and the local dynamics of insurgency in Afghanistan
Can developmental aid bring peace to war-torn communities? The current literature is divided on this issue. One line of reasoning suggests that aid is likely to decrease violence by improving employment and prosperity, thereby making participation in conflict more costly. Another view cites evidence showing an association between aid projects and increased insurgent activity. Addressing this contradiction, we argue that different types of aid pro…
Politics or prejudice? Explaining individual-level hostilities in India’s Hindu–Muslim conflict
Multiple explanations have been proposed for what drives India’s Hindu–Muslim conflict. Harnessing novel approaches to data acquisition and analysis, this paper uses insights from an electronic survey with 1, 414 respondents to test three prominent theories of why individuals promote conflict with out-groups. The results show that security concerns for the future are strong predictors for a hostile stance and approval of violence. Experiences of …
How indiscriminate violence fuels conflicts between groups: Evidence from Kenya
How Fear of Violence Drives Intergroup Conflict: Evidence from a Panel Survey in India
Earlier research on ethnic and religious conflict has identified fear as an important motivation. While theoretically sound, this expectation has never been tested at larger scales in ongoing episodes of political violence. Instead, conceptual progress has been made in lab experiments. Combining insights from observational research and stylized experiments, we predict that fear for personal safety due to witnessed violence causes prejudice agains…
Beyond Hate Speech: Online Rumors and Out-Group Resentment in Divided Societies
The political consequences of hate speech on social media are the subject of intense research. Studies from Europe and North America have found that online exposure to hate speech affects both attitudes and offline behavior. Moving beyond hate speech, we show how little it takes for online rumors to stoke inter-group tensions in divided societies. In a pre-registered survey experiment with 3075 Hindu social media users in India, we navigate ethic…
Political science (10 works) · Computer Science (9 works) · Law (9 works) · Political Conflict and Governance (8 works) · Criminology (7 works) · Sociology (7 works) · Economics (6 works) · Law (6 works) · Politics (6 works) · Econometrics (5 works)