Constantin Ruhe
Biographic Data
| ID | 359873 |
|---|---|
| NAME | Constantin Ruhe |
| GIVEN NAMES | Constantin |
| FAMILY NAME | Ruhe |
| SIGNATURE | RUHE C |
| AFFILIATIONS | Goethe University Frankfurt |
| ORCID | 0000-0002-1698-6877 |
| VERIFIED | Yes |
| TOTAL WORKS | 19 |
| TOTAL CITATIONS | 53 |
| AUTHOR COUNT | 19 |
| EDITOR COUNT | 0 |
| FIRST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2012 |
| LATEST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2026 |
| H-INDEX | 4 |
How education shapes divergent identity responses to discrimination: Experimental and observational evidence from Muslim immigrants in Germany
How immigrants respond to discrimination is a well‐studied topic in political psychology. However, less attention has been paid to whether the impact of discrimination on in‐group identification varies within minority groups and why. In Western Europe, Muslims experience significant discrimination and hostility based on their religious identity despite increasing educational integration and upward social mobility. Building on social identity theo…
Forecasting Peace Agreement Content: How Conflict Events Predict the Substance of Peace Settlements
Despite growing work on conflict forecasting, few studies predict conflict termination and none negotiation outcomes. We address this gap, assessing how well we can predict peace agreement content using conflict dynamics – particularly, insurgent distance from the capital. Thus, our study evaluates the predictive power of long-standing arguments in peace research, suggesting that conflict dynamics determine the prospects of negotiations. Utility …
The internationalization of intrastate conflict: A network perspective on empirical evidence and theoretical explanations
The internationalization of intrastate conflicts has become a defining trend in 21st-century organized violence, marked by external actors providing militarily relevant support—such as troops, arms, or intelligence—to domestic warring parties. While research examines various dimensions of this phenomenon, systematic analysis of macro-level trends and their drivers remains limited. This article addresses this gap through three contributions. First…
Negotiating Difficult Issues with Little Fervour? Why Peace Processes in Territorial Conflicts Tend to Produce Incomplete Outcomes
There is widespread consensus in peace research that territorial conflicts are more enduring and difficult to settle than non-territorial conflicts. However, theoretical explanations for this relationship vary. We apply a new conceptual framework to integrate existing explanations into a broader theory. We highlight how earlier work suggests alternative mechanisms: either actors in territorial intra-state conflicts are less willing to compromise …
Who Wants to Leave? Global Survey Evidence on How Individual Emigration Aspirations Differ Between Peaceful and Conflict-Affected Contexts
Does conflict change who desires to emigrate? Surprisingly, we still lack globally comparable empirical evidence on whether the types of individuals who want to leave their country differ between peaceful and conflict-affected locations. In this paper, we address this gap. We analyze unique survey data with global coverage to assess whether individual-level determinants of international permanent emigration aspirations differ during intrastate ar…
Many hurdles to take: Explaining peacekeepers’ ability to engage in human rights activities
Human rights are a fundamental principle and purpose of the United Nations (UN). Yet, UN peacekeeping operations (PKOs) exhibit substantial variation in their ability to engage in human rights activities. While existing research has investigated deployment and mandates, we explain what peacekeepers can actually do on the ground. We argue that the UN Security Council’s permanent member states (the P5) limit human rights mandates if they have priva…
How Fear of Violence Drives Intergroup Conflict: Evidence from a Panel Survey in India
Earlier research on ethnic and religious conflict has identified fear as an important motivation. While theoretically sound, this expectation has never been tested at larger scales in ongoing episodes of political violence. Instead, conceptual progress has been made in lab experiments. Combining insights from observational research and stylized experiments, we predict that fear for personal safety due to witnessed violence causes prejudice agains…
Digitalization and e‐government in the lives of urban migrants: Evidence from Bogotá
Research on the role of information and communication technologies (ICT) to improve the lives of migrants is a growing field. However, studies in this area have been conducted mainly in wealthy countries, with municipalities that are capable of supporting migrants or refugees. There is less evidence from middle‐income host countries and how ICTs can help migrants in their resettlement efforts. To address this gap, this study examines ICT access a…
Defining a sustainable development target space for 2030 and 2050
With the establishment of the sustainable development goals (SDGs), countries worldwide agreed to a prosperous, socially inclusive, and environmentally sustainable future for all. This ambition, however, exposes a critical gap in science-based insights, namely on how to achieve the 17 SDGs simultaneously. Quantitative goal-seeking scenario studies could help explore the needed systems' transformations. This requires a clear definition of the "tar…
How indiscriminate violence fuels conflicts between groups: Evidence from Kenya
A sustainable development pathway for climate action within the UN 2030 Agenda
Sticks and carrots for peace: The effect of manipulative mediation strategies on post-conflict stability
Mediation is widely used to settle armed conflict and interstate crises. However, the debate over the most appropriate and effective mediation strategy is still ongoing. In particular, manipulative mediation is controversial, with some research indicating that heavy-handed mediation may buy short-term peace at the expense of an instable long-term situation. This paper re-evaluates these claims. We discuss how existing theoretical arguments either…
How migration intentions change during periods of political instability and violence: Panel survey evidence from Kenya
Forced migration research suggests that violence plays a central role in individuals’ decision to flee. However, research has not yet examined how individuals form migration decisions in violent contexts over time. I argue that forced migration decision making consists of anticipatory and reactive processes. Distinguishing these stages improves our understanding of seemingly contradictory evidence on the violence–displacement link. I posit that s…
Impeding fatal violence through third-party diplomacy: The effect of mediation on conflict intensity
Existing research provides no systematic insights into if and how mediation impedes battle-related deaths. Therefore, this article presents a temporally disaggregated analysis and assesses the effect of mediation on monthly fatal violence. The article predicts that adversaries evaluate opponents' trustworthiness from both fighting and negotiation behavior. It argues that reducing fighting intensity during negotiations is a sign of cooperation, wh…
Empirisch-analytische Friedens- und Konfliktforschung in Deutschland: Ein Kommentar zur Evaluation durch den Wissenschaftsrat
Dieser Beitrag reflektiert und ergänzt die aktuelle Diskussion über die Empfehlungen des Wissenschaftsrats zur Weiterentwicklung der Friedens- und Konfliktforschung. Wir richten dabei den Blick auf die vom Wissenschaftsrat attestierten Schwachstellen im Bereich empirisch-analytischer Methoden und erläutern ihre Auswirkungen auf Interdisziplinarität, Internationalität und Politikberatung der deutschen Friedens- und Konfliktforschung. Wir argumenti…
The Asylum Hump: Why Country Income Level Predicts New Asylum Seekers, But Not New Refugees
Refugee response has become an important topic in economic-development policy, but the majority of macro-level analyses do not find an association between country income level and refugee numbers. We argue that the apparent lack of association stems from using the United Nations High Commission for Refugees’ count of refugees as the dependent variable in these analyses. Refugee counts reflect processes that take place in countries of arrival. In …
Quantifying Change Over Time: Interpreting Time-varying Effects In Duration Analyses
Duration analyses in political science often model nonproportional hazards through interactions with analysis time. To facilitate their interpretation, methodologists have proposed methods to visualize time-varying coefficients or hazard ratios. While these techniques are a useful, initial postestimation step, I argue that they are insufficient to identify the overall impact of a time-varying effect and may lead to faulty inference when a coeffic…
Anticipating mediated talks: Predicting the timing of mediation with disaggregated conflict dynamics
Research on mediation has shown that mediation can be an effective conflict management tool to contain intrastate conflicts, prevent escalation of low intensity conflicts, and foster de-escalation. But can ripe moments for conflict prevention effectively be anticipated? This article argues that the short-term conflict history provides a good predictor of the probability of mediation onset in low-intensity conflicts. It builds on an expected utili…
The Dynamics of Mass Killings: Testing Time-Series Models of One-Sided Violence in the Bosnian Civil War
Many observers contend that wartime civilian victimization is an instrument of political leaders to achieve a particular goal. This article examines whether retaliation for similar acts by the other side, the developments on the battlefield, or the behavior of international actors accounts for the ups and downs of this so-called one-sided violence. Using information from the Konstanz One-Sided Violence Event Dataset and other sources, we evaluate…
The Dynamics of Mass Killings: Testing Time-Series Models of One-Sided Violence in the Bosnian Civil War
Many observers contend that wartime civilian victimization is an instrument of political leaders to achieve a particular goal. This article examines whether retaliation for similar acts by the other side, the developments on the battlefield, or the behavior of international actors accounts for the ups and downs of this so-called one-sided violence. Using information from the Konstanz One-Sided Violence Event Dataset and other sources, we evaluate…
Quantifying Change Over Time: Interpreting Time-varying Effects In Duration Analyses
Duration analyses in political science often model nonproportional hazards through interactions with analysis time. To facilitate their interpretation, methodologists have proposed methods to visualize time-varying coefficients or hazard ratios. While these techniques are a useful, initial postestimation step, I argue that they are insufficient to identify the overall impact of a time-varying effect and may lead to faulty inference when a coeffic…
Anticipating mediated talks: Predicting the timing of mediation with disaggregated conflict dynamics
Research on mediation has shown that mediation can be an effective conflict management tool to contain intrastate conflicts, prevent escalation of low intensity conflicts, and foster de-escalation. But can ripe moments for conflict prevention effectively be anticipated? This article argues that the short-term conflict history provides a good predictor of the probability of mediation onset in low-intensity conflicts. It builds on an expected utili…
The Asylum Hump: Why Country Income Level Predicts New Asylum Seekers, But Not New Refugees
Refugee response has become an important topic in economic-development policy, but the majority of macro-level analyses do not find an association between country income level and refugee numbers. We argue that the apparent lack of association stems from using the United Nations High Commission for Refugees’ count of refugees as the dependent variable in these analyses. Refugee counts reflect processes that take place in countries of arrival. In …
Who Wants to Leave? Global Survey Evidence on How Individual Emigration Aspirations Differ Between Peaceful and Conflict-Affected Contexts
Does conflict change who desires to emigrate? Surprisingly, we still lack globally comparable empirical evidence on whether the types of individuals who want to leave their country differ between peaceful and conflict-affected locations. In this paper, we address this gap. We analyze unique survey data with global coverage to assess whether individual-level determinants of international permanent emigration aspirations differ during intrastate ar…
How migration intentions change during periods of political instability and violence: Panel survey evidence from Kenya
Forced migration research suggests that violence plays a central role in individuals’ decision to flee. However, research has not yet examined how individuals form migration decisions in violent contexts over time. I argue that forced migration decision making consists of anticipatory and reactive processes. Distinguishing these stages improves our understanding of seemingly contradictory evidence on the violence–displacement link. I posit that s…
How Fear of Violence Drives Intergroup Conflict: Evidence from a Panel Survey in India
Earlier research on ethnic and religious conflict has identified fear as an important motivation. While theoretically sound, this expectation has never been tested at larger scales in ongoing episodes of political violence. Instead, conceptual progress has been made in lab experiments. Combining insights from observational research and stylized experiments, we predict that fear for personal safety due to witnessed violence causes prejudice agains…
Negotiating Difficult Issues with Little Fervour? Why Peace Processes in Territorial Conflicts Tend to Produce Incomplete Outcomes
There is widespread consensus in peace research that territorial conflicts are more enduring and difficult to settle than non-territorial conflicts. However, theoretical explanations for this relationship vary. We apply a new conceptual framework to integrate existing explanations into a broader theory. We highlight how earlier work suggests alternative mechanisms: either actors in territorial intra-state conflicts are less willing to compromise …
Many hurdles to take: Explaining peacekeepers’ ability to engage in human rights activities
Human rights are a fundamental principle and purpose of the United Nations (UN). Yet, UN peacekeeping operations (PKOs) exhibit substantial variation in their ability to engage in human rights activities. While existing research has investigated deployment and mandates, we explain what peacekeepers can actually do on the ground. We argue that the UN Security Council’s permanent member states (the P5) limit human rights mandates if they have priva…
How indiscriminate violence fuels conflicts between groups: Evidence from Kenya
Impeding fatal violence through third-party diplomacy: The effect of mediation on conflict intensity
Existing research provides no systematic insights into if and how mediation impedes battle-related deaths. Therefore, this article presents a temporally disaggregated analysis and assesses the effect of mediation on monthly fatal violence. The article predicts that adversaries evaluate opponents' trustworthiness from both fighting and negotiation behavior. It argues that reducing fighting intensity during negotiations is a sign of cooperation, wh…
The Dynamics of Mass Killings: Testing Time-Series Models of One-Sided Violence in the Bosnian Civil War
Many observers contend that wartime civilian victimization is an instrument of political leaders to achieve a particular goal. This article examines whether retaliation for similar acts by the other side, the developments on the battlefield, or the behavior of international actors accounts for the ups and downs of this so-called one-sided violence. Using information from the Konstanz One-Sided Violence Event Dataset and other sources, we evaluate…
Anticipating mediated talks: Predicting the timing of mediation with disaggregated conflict dynamics
Research on mediation has shown that mediation can be an effective conflict management tool to contain intrastate conflicts, prevent escalation of low intensity conflicts, and foster de-escalation. But can ripe moments for conflict prevention effectively be anticipated? This article argues that the short-term conflict history provides a good predictor of the probability of mediation onset in low-intensity conflicts. It builds on an expected utili…
Quantifying Change Over Time: Interpreting Time-varying Effects In Duration Analyses
Duration analyses in political science often model nonproportional hazards through interactions with analysis time. To facilitate their interpretation, methodologists have proposed methods to visualize time-varying coefficients or hazard ratios. While these techniques are a useful, initial postestimation step, I argue that they are insufficient to identify the overall impact of a time-varying effect and may lead to faulty inference when a coeffic…
Empirisch-analytische Friedens- und Konfliktforschung in Deutschland: Ein Kommentar zur Evaluation durch den Wissenschaftsrat
Dieser Beitrag reflektiert und ergänzt die aktuelle Diskussion über die Empfehlungen des Wissenschaftsrats zur Weiterentwicklung der Friedens- und Konfliktforschung. Wir richten dabei den Blick auf die vom Wissenschaftsrat attestierten Schwachstellen im Bereich empirisch-analytischer Methoden und erläutern ihre Auswirkungen auf Interdisziplinarität, Internationalität und Politikberatung der deutschen Friedens- und Konfliktforschung. Wir argumenti…
The Asylum Hump: Why Country Income Level Predicts New Asylum Seekers, But Not New Refugees
Refugee response has become an important topic in economic-development policy, but the majority of macro-level analyses do not find an association between country income level and refugee numbers. We argue that the apparent lack of association stems from using the United Nations High Commission for Refugees’ count of refugees as the dependent variable in these analyses. Refugee counts reflect processes that take place in countries of arrival. In …
A sustainable development pathway for climate action within the UN 2030 Agenda
Sticks and carrots for peace: The effect of manipulative mediation strategies on post-conflict stability
Mediation is widely used to settle armed conflict and interstate crises. However, the debate over the most appropriate and effective mediation strategy is still ongoing. In particular, manipulative mediation is controversial, with some research indicating that heavy-handed mediation may buy short-term peace at the expense of an instable long-term situation. This paper re-evaluates these claims. We discuss how existing theoretical arguments either…
How migration intentions change during periods of political instability and violence: Panel survey evidence from Kenya
Forced migration research suggests that violence plays a central role in individuals’ decision to flee. However, research has not yet examined how individuals form migration decisions in violent contexts over time. I argue that forced migration decision making consists of anticipatory and reactive processes. Distinguishing these stages improves our understanding of seemingly contradictory evidence on the violence–displacement link. I posit that s…
Impeding fatal violence through third-party diplomacy: The effect of mediation on conflict intensity
Existing research provides no systematic insights into if and how mediation impedes battle-related deaths. Therefore, this article presents a temporally disaggregated analysis and assesses the effect of mediation on monthly fatal violence. The article predicts that adversaries evaluate opponents' trustworthiness from both fighting and negotiation behavior. It argues that reducing fighting intensity during negotiations is a sign of cooperation, wh…
Digitalization and e‐government in the lives of urban migrants: Evidence from Bogotá
Research on the role of information and communication technologies (ICT) to improve the lives of migrants is a growing field. However, studies in this area have been conducted mainly in wealthy countries, with municipalities that are capable of supporting migrants or refugees. There is less evidence from middle‐income host countries and how ICTs can help migrants in their resettlement efforts. To address this gap, this study examines ICT access a…
Defining a sustainable development target space for 2030 and 2050
With the establishment of the sustainable development goals (SDGs), countries worldwide agreed to a prosperous, socially inclusive, and environmentally sustainable future for all. This ambition, however, exposes a critical gap in science-based insights, namely on how to achieve the 17 SDGs simultaneously. Quantitative goal-seeking scenario studies could help explore the needed systems' transformations. This requires a clear definition of the "tar…
How indiscriminate violence fuels conflicts between groups: Evidence from Kenya
How Fear of Violence Drives Intergroup Conflict: Evidence from a Panel Survey in India
Earlier research on ethnic and religious conflict has identified fear as an important motivation. While theoretically sound, this expectation has never been tested at larger scales in ongoing episodes of political violence. Instead, conceptual progress has been made in lab experiments. Combining insights from observational research and stylized experiments, we predict that fear for personal safety due to witnessed violence causes prejudice agains…
Many hurdles to take: Explaining peacekeepers’ ability to engage in human rights activities
Human rights are a fundamental principle and purpose of the United Nations (UN). Yet, UN peacekeeping operations (PKOs) exhibit substantial variation in their ability to engage in human rights activities. While existing research has investigated deployment and mandates, we explain what peacekeepers can actually do on the ground. We argue that the UN Security Council’s permanent member states (the P5) limit human rights mandates if they have priva…
Negotiating Difficult Issues with Little Fervour? Why Peace Processes in Territorial Conflicts Tend to Produce Incomplete Outcomes
There is widespread consensus in peace research that territorial conflicts are more enduring and difficult to settle than non-territorial conflicts. However, theoretical explanations for this relationship vary. We apply a new conceptual framework to integrate existing explanations into a broader theory. We highlight how earlier work suggests alternative mechanisms: either actors in territorial intra-state conflicts are less willing to compromise …
Who Wants to Leave? Global Survey Evidence on How Individual Emigration Aspirations Differ Between Peaceful and Conflict-Affected Contexts
Does conflict change who desires to emigrate? Surprisingly, we still lack globally comparable empirical evidence on whether the types of individuals who want to leave their country differ between peaceful and conflict-affected locations. In this paper, we address this gap. We analyze unique survey data with global coverage to assess whether individual-level determinants of international permanent emigration aspirations differ during intrastate ar…
How education shapes divergent identity responses to discrimination: Experimental and observational evidence from Muslim immigrants in Germany
How immigrants respond to discrimination is a well‐studied topic in political psychology. However, less attention has been paid to whether the impact of discrimination on in‐group identification varies within minority groups and why. In Western Europe, Muslims experience significant discrimination and hostility based on their religious identity despite increasing educational integration and upward social mobility. Building on social identity theo…
Forecasting Peace Agreement Content: How Conflict Events Predict the Substance of Peace Settlements
Despite growing work on conflict forecasting, few studies predict conflict termination and none negotiation outcomes. We address this gap, assessing how well we can predict peace agreement content using conflict dynamics – particularly, insurgent distance from the capital. Thus, our study evaluates the predictive power of long-standing arguments in peace research, suggesting that conflict dynamics determine the prospects of negotiations. Utility …
The internationalization of intrastate conflict: A network perspective on empirical evidence and theoretical explanations
The internationalization of intrastate conflicts has become a defining trend in 21st-century organized violence, marked by external actors providing militarily relevant support—such as troops, arms, or intelligence—to domestic warring parties. While research examines various dimensions of this phenomenon, systematic analysis of macro-level trends and their drivers remains limited. This article addresses this gap through three contributions. First…
Political science (15 works) · Political Conflict and Governance (11 works) · Computer Science (7 works) · Economics (7 works) · Psychology (7 works) · Law (6 works) · Politics (6 works) · Law (5 works) · Peacebuilding and International Security (5 works) · Social Psychology (5 works)