Scott E Page
Datos Biográficos
| ID | 3610160 |
|---|---|
| NOMBRE | Scott E Page |
| NOMBRES | Scott E |
| APELLIDO | Page |
| FIRMA | PAGE S E |
| AFILIACIONES | University of Michigan |
| VERIFICADO | No |
| TOTAL DE OBRAS | 26 |
| TOTAL DE CITAS | 322 |
| TOTAL COMO AUTOR | 26 |
| TOTAL COMO EDITOR | 0 |
| PRIMER AÑO DE PUBLICACIÓN | 1992 |
| AÑO MÁS RECIENTE DE PUBLICACIÓN | 2025 |
| ÍNDICE H | 10 |
Agent-based modeling for psychological research on social phenomena
This article describes seven potential benefits of incorporating agent-based modeling (ABM) as a core research methodology for psychological research on social phenomena: building formal theories of complex social systems, validating multilevel causation, understanding temporal and nonlinear dynamics, demonstrating the completeness of theories, balancing consideration of people with their environments, bridging psychology and policy, and identify…
The many model approach
Analytical sociology uses mechanistic models to explain social phenomena such as inequality, segregation, health, cultural formation, and social mobility. Each of these complex processes defies simple characterizations, and models, by definition, simplify. Any one model must therefore be wrong. In this chapter, I make two methodological arguments for using many models. First, I argue that applying a variety of models with common features and assu…
Cultural Capital and Opportunities for Exceptionalism
This study illuminates how common holistic admissions practices at so-called “elite” colleges and universities favor high-SES, high wealth applicants through the ways they define and consider “exceptional” performance in extracurricular activities. While many studies have established advantages to high-income applicants based on school resources, standardized testing, and myriad other factors, few have examined the consideration of exceptional pe…
Cultural drift, indirect minority influence, network structure, and their impacts on cultural change and diversity
The present research investigates how psychological mechanisms and social network structures generate patterns of cultural change and diversity. The two psychological mechanisms studied here are cultural drift and indirect minority influence; the former is parameterized by an error rate ε) and the latter by a leniency threshold (λ). The patterns of cultural change are examined in terms of magnitude (small vs. large), speed (gradual vs. rapid), an…
When Order Affects Performance
Evidence suggests that the cultural context influences the performance of laws, policies, and political institutions. Descriptive accounts reveal that outcomes and behaviors often depend on the array of historical institutions. This article presents a multi-institutional framework that can account for those findings through path-dependent behavioral spillovers. Individuals learn equilibrium behaviors when interacting in a new institutional settin…
The Diversity Bonus
What Sociologists Should Know About Complexity
I discuss the concept of complexity and the burgeoning field of complex systems and their relevance to sociology. I begin by comparing and contrasting various definitions of complexity and then describe the attributes of systems capable of producing complexity: diversity, networked interactions, interdependent behavior, and adaptation. Next, I survey the contributions of complexity sciences with the most resonance with sociology. I organize those…
Deliberation and disagreement
Consensus plays an ambiguous role in deliberative democracy. While it formed the horizon of early deliberative theories, many now denounce it as an empirically unachievable outcome, a logically impossible stopping rule, and a normatively undesirable ideal. Deliberative disagreement, by contrast, is celebrated not just as an empirically unavoidable outcome but also as a democratically sound and normatively desirable goal of deliberation. Majority …
Agent-Based Models
Agent-based models (ABMs) provide a methodology to explore systems of interacting, adaptive, diverse, spatially situated actors. Outcomes in ABMs can be equilibrium points, equilibrium distributions, cycles, randomness, or complex patterns; these outcomes are not directly determined by assumptions but instead emerge from the interactions of actors in the model. These behaviors may range from rational and payoff-maximizing strategies to rules that…
Where diversity comes from and why it matters
In this essay, I describe some of the benefits of cognitive diversity in a complex world as well as the origins of that diversity. The essay has two main parts sandwiched between a brief description of what I mean by diversity and complexity, as well as a brief discussion of whether social systems produce sufficient diversity. In the first part, I describe models that provide insight into why we see the levels of diversity that we do. These model…
Revised-Path Dependence
In this article, we define a class of revised path—dependent processes and characterize their basic properties. A process exhibits revised-path dependence if the current outcome can revise the value of a past outcome. A revision could be a change to that outcome or a reinterpretation. We first define a revised path—dependent process called the accumulation process: in each period, a randomly chosen past outcome is changed to match the current out…
The Complexity of System Effects
Complexity science has witnessed a number of advances since the publication of Jervis's System Effects. These advances better allow us to untangle the messy elements in a system and predict sets of likely outcomes. However, just because a system is complex doesn't mean that all the ideas relating to complexity—such as agent-based modeling, path dependency, tipping points, between-class versus within-class effects, and networks—are necessarily rel…
Diversity and Complexity
This book provides an introduction to the role of diversity in complex adaptive systems. A complex system--such as an economy or a tropical ecosystem--consists of interacting adaptive entities that produce dynamic patterns and structures. Diversity plays a different role in a complex system than it does in an equilibrium system, where it often merely produces variation around the mean for performance measures. In complex adaptive systems, diversi…
The emergence of zoning policy games in exurban jurisdictions
General Blotto
Embracing Chaos and Complexity
Public health research and practice have been guided by a cognitive, rational paradigm where inputs produce linear, predictable changes in outputs. However, the conceptual and statistical assumptions underlying this paradigm may be flawed. In particular, this perspective does not adequately account for nonlinear and quantum influences on human behavior. We propose that health behavior change is better understood through the lens of chaos theory a…
Difference
Uncertainty, Difficulty, and Complexity
In this article I clarify the often muddled distinctions between uncertainty, difficulty, and complexity and show that all three can enhance our understanding of institutional performance and design. To cope with uncertainty, institutions align incentives for information revelation; to handle difficult problems, institutions create incentives for diverse problem-solving approaches; and to harness complexity, institutions adjust selection criteria…
Exurbia from the bottom-up
Essay
"I eat my peas with honey. I've done it all my life. It makes 'em taste quite funny, but it keeps them on the knife." – an old Bostonian jump roping rhyme.
Computational and Mathematical Modeling in the Social Sciences
Groups of diverse problem solvers can outperform groups of high-ability problem solvers
We introduce a general framework for modeling functionally diverse problem-solving agents. In this framework, problem-solving agents possess representations of problems and algorithms that they use to locate solutions. We use this framework to establish a result relevant to group composition. We find that when selecting a problem-solving team from a diverse population of intelligent agents, a team of randomly selected agents outperforms a team co…
Problem Solving by Heterogeneous Agents
On the Emergence of Cities
Political Parties and Electoral Landscapes
We study the relationship between voters' preferences and the emergence of party platforms in two-party democratic elections with adaptive parties. In the model, preferences of voters and the opposition party's platform determine an electoral landscape on which the challenging party must adaptively search for votes. We show that changes in the underlying distribution of voters' preferences result in different electoral landscapes which can be cha…
Adaptive Parties in Spatial Elections
We develop a model of two-party spatial elections that departs from the standard model in three respects: parties' information about voters' preferences is limited to polls; parties can be either office-seeking or ideological; and parties are not perfect optimizers, that is, they are modelled as boundedly rational adaptive actors. We employ computer search algorithms to model the adaptive behavior of parties and show that three distinct search al…
Deliberation and disagreement
Consensus plays an ambiguous role in deliberative democracy. While it formed the horizon of early deliberative theories, many now denounce it as an empirically unachievable outcome, a logically impossible stopping rule, and a normatively undesirable ideal. Deliberative disagreement, by contrast, is celebrated not just as an empirically unavoidable outcome but also as a democratically sound and normatively desirable goal of deliberation. Majority …
Agent-Based Models
Agent-based models (ABMs) provide a methodology to explore systems of interacting, adaptive, diverse, spatially situated actors. Outcomes in ABMs can be equilibrium points, equilibrium distributions, cycles, randomness, or complex patterns; these outcomes are not directly determined by assumptions but instead emerge from the interactions of actors in the model. These behaviors may range from rational and payoff-maximizing strategies to rules that…
Political Parties and Electoral Landscapes
We study the relationship between voters' preferences and the emergence of party platforms in two-party democratic elections with adaptive parties. In the model, preferences of voters and the opposition party's platform determine an electoral landscape on which the challenging party must adaptively search for votes. We show that changes in the underlying distribution of voters' preferences result in different electoral landscapes which can be cha…
What Sociologists Should Know About Complexity
I discuss the concept of complexity and the burgeoning field of complex systems and their relevance to sociology. I begin by comparing and contrasting various definitions of complexity and then describe the attributes of systems capable of producing complexity: diversity, networked interactions, interdependent behavior, and adaptation. Next, I survey the contributions of complexity sciences with the most resonance with sociology. I organize those…
Uncertainty, Difficulty, and Complexity
In this article I clarify the often muddled distinctions between uncertainty, difficulty, and complexity and show that all three can enhance our understanding of institutional performance and design. To cope with uncertainty, institutions align incentives for information revelation; to handle difficult problems, institutions create incentives for diverse problem-solving approaches; and to harness complexity, institutions adjust selection criteria…
Embracing Chaos and Complexity
Public health research and practice have been guided by a cognitive, rational paradigm where inputs produce linear, predictable changes in outputs. However, the conceptual and statistical assumptions underlying this paradigm may be flawed. In particular, this perspective does not adequately account for nonlinear and quantum influences on human behavior. We propose that health behavior change is better understood through the lens of chaos theory a…
Exurbia from the bottom-up
Cultural Capital and Opportunities for Exceptionalism
This study illuminates how common holistic admissions practices at so-called “elite” colleges and universities favor high-SES, high wealth applicants through the ways they define and consider “exceptional” performance in extracurricular activities. While many studies have established advantages to high-income applicants based on school resources, standardized testing, and myriad other factors, few have examined the consideration of exceptional pe…
When Order Affects Performance
Evidence suggests that the cultural context influences the performance of laws, policies, and political institutions. Descriptive accounts reveal that outcomes and behaviors often depend on the array of historical institutions. This article presents a multi-institutional framework that can account for those findings through path-dependent behavioral spillovers. Individuals learn equilibrium behaviors when interacting in a new institutional settin…
Where diversity comes from and why it matters
In this essay, I describe some of the benefits of cognitive diversity in a complex world as well as the origins of that diversity. The essay has two main parts sandwiched between a brief description of what I mean by diversity and complexity, as well as a brief discussion of whether social systems produce sufficient diversity. In the first part, I describe models that provide insight into why we see the levels of diversity that we do. These model…
Revised-Path Dependence
In this article, we define a class of revised path—dependent processes and characterize their basic properties. A process exhibits revised-path dependence if the current outcome can revise the value of a past outcome. A revision could be a change to that outcome or a reinterpretation. We first define a revised path—dependent process called the accumulation process: in each period, a randomly chosen past outcome is changed to match the current out…
The Complexity of System Effects
Complexity science has witnessed a number of advances since the publication of Jervis's System Effects. These advances better allow us to untangle the messy elements in a system and predict sets of likely outcomes. However, just because a system is complex doesn't mean that all the ideas relating to complexity—such as agent-based modeling, path dependency, tipping points, between-class versus within-class effects, and networks—are necessarily rel…
Diversity and Complexity
This book provides an introduction to the role of diversity in complex adaptive systems. A complex system--such as an economy or a tropical ecosystem--consists of interacting adaptive entities that produce dynamic patterns and structures. Diversity plays a different role in a complex system than it does in an equilibrium system, where it often merely produces variation around the mean for performance measures. In complex adaptive systems, diversi…
The emergence of zoning policy games in exurban jurisdictions
General Blotto
Cultural drift, indirect minority influence, network structure, and their impacts on cultural change and diversity
The present research investigates how psychological mechanisms and social network structures generate patterns of cultural change and diversity. The two psychological mechanisms studied here are cultural drift and indirect minority influence; the former is parameterized by an error rate ε) and the latter by a leniency threshold (λ). The patterns of cultural change are examined in terms of magnitude (small vs. large), speed (gradual vs. rapid), an…
On the Emergence of Cities
Adaptive Parties in Spatial Elections
We develop a model of two-party spatial elections that departs from the standard model in three respects: parties' information about voters' preferences is limited to polls; parties can be either office-seeking or ideological; and parties are not perfect optimizers, that is, they are modelled as boundedly rational adaptive actors. We employ computer search algorithms to model the adaptive behavior of parties and show that three distinct search al…
Political Parties and Electoral Landscapes
We study the relationship between voters' preferences and the emergence of party platforms in two-party democratic elections with adaptive parties. In the model, preferences of voters and the opposition party's platform determine an electoral landscape on which the challenging party must adaptively search for votes. We show that changes in the underlying distribution of voters' preferences result in different electoral landscapes which can be cha…
On the Emergence of Cities
Problem Solving by Heterogeneous Agents
Groups of diverse problem solvers can outperform groups of high-ability problem solvers
We introduce a general framework for modeling functionally diverse problem-solving agents. In this framework, problem-solving agents possess representations of problems and algorithms that they use to locate solutions. We use this framework to establish a result relevant to group composition. We find that when selecting a problem-solving team from a diverse population of intelligent agents, a team of randomly selected agents outperforms a team co…
Essay
"I eat my peas with honey. I've done it all my life. It makes 'em taste quite funny, but it keeps them on the knife." – an old Bostonian jump roping rhyme.
Computational and Mathematical Modeling in the Social Sciences
Exurbia from the bottom-up
Embracing Chaos and Complexity
Public health research and practice have been guided by a cognitive, rational paradigm where inputs produce linear, predictable changes in outputs. However, the conceptual and statistical assumptions underlying this paradigm may be flawed. In particular, this perspective does not adequately account for nonlinear and quantum influences on human behavior. We propose that health behavior change is better understood through the lens of chaos theory a…
Difference
Uncertainty, Difficulty, and Complexity
In this article I clarify the often muddled distinctions between uncertainty, difficulty, and complexity and show that all three can enhance our understanding of institutional performance and design. To cope with uncertainty, institutions align incentives for information revelation; to handle difficult problems, institutions create incentives for diverse problem-solving approaches; and to harness complexity, institutions adjust selection criteria…
The emergence of zoning policy games in exurban jurisdictions
General Blotto
Diversity and Complexity
This book provides an introduction to the role of diversity in complex adaptive systems. A complex system--such as an economy or a tropical ecosystem--consists of interacting adaptive entities that produce dynamic patterns and structures. Diversity plays a different role in a complex system than it does in an equilibrium system, where it often merely produces variation around the mean for performance measures. In complex adaptive systems, diversi…
Revised-Path Dependence
In this article, we define a class of revised path—dependent processes and characterize their basic properties. A process exhibits revised-path dependence if the current outcome can revise the value of a past outcome. A revision could be a change to that outcome or a reinterpretation. We first define a revised path—dependent process called the accumulation process: in each period, a randomly chosen past outcome is changed to match the current out…
The Complexity of System Effects
Complexity science has witnessed a number of advances since the publication of Jervis's System Effects. These advances better allow us to untangle the messy elements in a system and predict sets of likely outcomes. However, just because a system is complex doesn't mean that all the ideas relating to complexity—such as agent-based modeling, path dependency, tipping points, between-class versus within-class effects, and networks—are necessarily rel…
Deliberation and disagreement
Consensus plays an ambiguous role in deliberative democracy. While it formed the horizon of early deliberative theories, many now denounce it as an empirically unachievable outcome, a logically impossible stopping rule, and a normatively undesirable ideal. Deliberative disagreement, by contrast, is celebrated not just as an empirically unavoidable outcome but also as a democratically sound and normatively desirable goal of deliberation. Majority …
Agent-Based Models
Agent-based models (ABMs) provide a methodology to explore systems of interacting, adaptive, diverse, spatially situated actors. Outcomes in ABMs can be equilibrium points, equilibrium distributions, cycles, randomness, or complex patterns; these outcomes are not directly determined by assumptions but instead emerge from the interactions of actors in the model. These behaviors may range from rational and payoff-maximizing strategies to rules that…
Where diversity comes from and why it matters
In this essay, I describe some of the benefits of cognitive diversity in a complex world as well as the origins of that diversity. The essay has two main parts sandwiched between a brief description of what I mean by diversity and complexity, as well as a brief discussion of whether social systems produce sufficient diversity. In the first part, I describe models that provide insight into why we see the levels of diversity that we do. These model…
What Sociologists Should Know About Complexity
I discuss the concept of complexity and the burgeoning field of complex systems and their relevance to sociology. I begin by comparing and contrasting various definitions of complexity and then describe the attributes of systems capable of producing complexity: diversity, networked interactions, interdependent behavior, and adaptation. Next, I survey the contributions of complexity sciences with the most resonance with sociology. I organize those…
The Diversity Bonus
When Order Affects Performance
Evidence suggests that the cultural context influences the performance of laws, policies, and political institutions. Descriptive accounts reveal that outcomes and behaviors often depend on the array of historical institutions. This article presents a multi-institutional framework that can account for those findings through path-dependent behavioral spillovers. Individuals learn equilibrium behaviors when interacting in a new institutional settin…
The many model approach
Analytical sociology uses mechanistic models to explain social phenomena such as inequality, segregation, health, cultural formation, and social mobility. Each of these complex processes defies simple characterizations, and models, by definition, simplify. Any one model must therefore be wrong. In this chapter, I make two methodological arguments for using many models. First, I argue that applying a variety of models with common features and assu…
Cultural Capital and Opportunities for Exceptionalism
This study illuminates how common holistic admissions practices at so-called “elite” colleges and universities favor high-SES, high wealth applicants through the ways they define and consider “exceptional” performance in extracurricular activities. While many studies have established advantages to high-income applicants based on school resources, standardized testing, and myriad other factors, few have examined the consideration of exceptional pe…
Cultural drift, indirect minority influence, network structure, and their impacts on cultural change and diversity
The present research investigates how psychological mechanisms and social network structures generate patterns of cultural change and diversity. The two psychological mechanisms studied here are cultural drift and indirect minority influence; the former is parameterized by an error rate ε) and the latter by a leniency threshold (λ). The patterns of cultural change are examined in terms of magnitude (small vs. large), speed (gradual vs. rapid), an…
Economics (17 obras) · Computer Science (15 obras) · Mathematics (10 obras) · Political science (10 obras) · Sociology (9 obras) · Psychology (8 obras) · Game Theory and Applications (7 obras) · Law (7 obras) · Law (7 obras) · Artificial Intelligence (6 obras)